Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191618 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1218 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered west of the region through mid week. Hurricane Jose will continue to track north across the Virginia Capes today, then track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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At 11 AM, Hurricane Jose is located 230 miles ENE of HAT and moving north at 7 mph. Meanwhile, high pressure was centered over the mountains. Jose will continue to move north across the Vacapes today making its closest approach to the coast this morning. Latest suite of model data agree that Jose`s main pcpn shield stays offshore with only sct shwrs rotating west/onshore. However, RH fields show a rather sharp gradient with most guidance not showing much measurable pcpn making it west of the Ches Bay. Given this SCA headlines over the rivers continue as well. trend, elected to keep chc to low end likely pops along the immediate coast this morning, quickly dropping off to slght chc pops along the zones bordering the Ches Bay. Chc pops along the coast this aftrn. High pressure over the mts results in enough dry air for skies to average partly sunny across the Piedmont. Breezy to windy conditions along the coast with north winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. OXB will likely have the highest winds with gusts up to 45 mph where a wind advisory continues (have cancelled it for the NC outer Banks where a few gusts to 35-40 mph will persist but anything higher is unlikely). Highs in the mid- upr 70s along the coast, low- mid 80s west of the Ches Bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jose continues to pull NE away from the region tonight. Tsctns and RH fields show drier air quickly spreading east and ending any pcpn. Exception will be across the lwr MD eastern shore where slght chc pops will be maintained during the evening. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and mild. Winds become NW and diminish as gradient relaxes. Lows in the mid-upr 60s except near 70 sern beach areas. High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but dissipating as it tries to move east. H85 temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs reaching the mid-upr 80s west of the bay, lwr 80s along the coast. Maybe even a rogue 90 at one of those AWOS sites across the piedmont given how dry the ground is. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. 65-70. Mstly sunny and warm Thurs as the high dominates. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s along the coast, mid 80s west of the bay. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Thu night through the weekend as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly re-circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the weekend) - esp at the coast...expecting dry/near-slightly above seasonable conditions. Extended models continue to have difficulty wrt the tropical activity in the extended periods. Appears models are having trouble resolving what to do with Jose past seven days out which would affect Maria`s track. Latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian now keep both Jose and Maria offshore early next week. GFS/ECMWF actually have a Maria track similar to what Jose had (between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras) while the Canadian keeps Maria even farther east. Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun in the l-m80s...Mon in the m70s-l80s. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Hurricane Jose is moving north at 9 mph across the Virginia Capes this morning. BKN-OVC MVFR SC continues to spread inland along with shwrs moving onshore. Latest data shows the main pcpn bands associated with Jose stay offshore while the shwrs drift west as Jose makes it closest approach to the coast later this morning. Data also showing any sgnfcnt pcpn not making in much farther west than the Ches Bay. Thus, based off current radar trends, have gone with a VCSH but with a few hour TEMPO group for -RA at both SBY/ORF with just VCSH at ECG. The morning MVFR Stratus at RIC will lift into a VFR SC deck. Gusty NNE winds btwn 15-30 mph along the coast. Decreasing clouds west to east after 00Z as Jose slowly pulls NE and away from the area. Last region to clr will be at SBY. Outlook: Jose continues to drift NE to a position off the srn New England coast Wed and Thu. High pres builds in behind the systm. && .MARINE...
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Tropical storm warnings continue as planned for all coastal waters as winds continue at 25-35 kt sustained with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas currently avg to 8-11 ft nearshore and 12-16 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 3-5 ft except to 5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Have replaced the Gale Warning for Currituck sound with a Small Craft Advisory (though 10 pm), and have extended the Gale Warning for the mouth of the Bay through 4 pm given current obs still depicting frequent gusts to 35 kt. Other SCA headlines remain as is for the rest of the Bay and Rivers for mainly 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through the aftn, slowly diminishing to 15-20 kt this evening. Marine conditions then improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Will continue coastal flood advisories for all zones adjacent to the ocean and for much of the area along Ches Bay and the James/York/Rappahannock Rivers. Did this for the next 2 high tide cycles into early Wednesday morning, but may need to be extended into the following high tide cycle daytime Wednesday. Seeing potential for some moderate tidal flooding for the ocean side of the eastern shore with the next high tide and may upgrade to a coastal flood warning there w/ aftn re-issuance of the CFW. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 12-14 sec periods and the large nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high again on Wed.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075-077- 078-084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095>097- 523>525. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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