Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250016 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 716 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak backdoor cold front will stall over central Virginia and the Eastern Shore this evening before lifting back north as a warm front later tonight into Sunday as high pressure prevails off the Southeast coast. A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and settles across North Carolina Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Backdoor cold fronts always seem to amaze me, even with 30+ years in the business. This one just wants to hang around as the latest MSAS has the boundary on a MVF-FJY-OFP-Palmayra line. High res models take it a bit farther south next few hrs, somewhere near a FVX-PTB-PHF line before lifting it back north as a warm front after 08Z. These tend to migrate toward water so will have to watch for a wind shift at PHF and psbly ORF later this eve. Shwrs/drizzle all progged to remain north of the bndry so will keep likely/ chc pops across the north, remaining dry across the south. Fog noted across the lwr MD ern shore and web cams ivof OXB, so have extended the marine dense fog until 12Z from Parramore Isl northward. Patchy fog psbl north of the bndry, but not as dense or widespread as the ern shore. Adjusted hrly tmps/dp tmps per crnt obs and tweeked mins a bit based off the current temps amd progged movement of the frnt. in the 50s to near 60 southern ost zones except 45-50 lwr MD ern shore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage, although 24/12z model consensus suggests that thicker mid/high clouds arrive over the Piedmont during the aftn, which could have some impact on high temperatures. Nevertheless, still very warm Sunday with high temperatures in the low/mid 70s over the Piedmont, upper 70s to low 80s for s-central/SE VA and NE NC, with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs at this time are limited to 20-40% ahead of and along the front. Forecast soundings do depict some steeper lapse rates within the 850-700mb layer, but rather stable above that layer, Given this, have not included any thunder at this time. The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles over NC Monday. A secondary area of low pressure tracks along the front along with some mid-level energy and this is expected to bring a period of light rain mainly across srn VA/NE NC (60-80% PoPs) overnight Sunday night through midday Monday. Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S. Highs Monday in the upper 50s to around 60F, but these values could fall during the day, especially SE. 1030mb high pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. Mostly clear, and actually almost seasonably cool with overnight low temperatures in the mid 30s N to low 40s SE. High pressure remains in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday. Sunny with high temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low 60s farther inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the area Tuesday shifts offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night dip down to around 40 degrees. Dry for much of the day on Wednesday with showers approaching the southwest portions of the area after 18Z. Highs Wednesday top out in the low to mid 60s and drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday night. Strong area of low pressure develops over the southern Plains Wednesday moving into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Moisture increases across the region Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front lifts across the region. A trailing cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday. Models continue to show a decent moisture feed from the southwest so will continue to carry likely PoPs for Wednesday night and Thursday. Any chances for thunder will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal passage. It should be a pretty decent rainfall for much of the region with models showing in excess of an inch of QPF with this system. Highs on Thursday low to mid 60s and lows Thursday night mid to upper 40s. Cold front will have cleared the area by Friday bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures. A few showers cannot be ruled out on Friday, especially near the coast. Cooler weather makes a return for Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s and highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak cold front will continue to slowly meander south this evening before moving back front as a warm front early Sunday. The front is currently draped across roughly the center of the area from RIC to PHF as of 00Z. IFR to LIFR ceilings north of the boundary are impacting SBY and will continue overnight before the front retreats back north. RIC and PHF will be right on the line of lower ceilings, introduced MVFR ceilings after 02Z at RIC and left PHF as VFR at the moment. All sites improve to VFR Sunday morning except for potentially the far north where lower ceilings may linger a bit longer. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds are expected later Sunday morning into the afternoon with a 10 to 15 knot wind gusting 20 to 25 knots. There is a 20-40% of showers later in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Outlook: The cold front crosses the region Sunday evening with the potential for cig/vsby restrictions along with periods of light rain overnight Sunday through midday Monday. High pressure arrives Monday night and Tuesday bringing drier conditions to the area. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday with a low pressure system and associated cold front impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 2 pm, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of Parramore Island on the Atlantic side thru 7pm, but have cancelled it north of Windmill Pt on the Ches Bay as the fog has dissipated. Otherwise, offshore high and SSW winds dominate into tonight, except north where another backdoor cold front will sag south into the northern waters (winds will shift to the ENE in these areas). Front lifts back N early Sun morning with a breezy SW flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal SCAs are possible, especially Bay and lower James, but low confidence will preclude issuance at this time. The next cold front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the N-NE for Mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so kept winds/seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and again Mon night/early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the WNW. High pressure centers over the marine area Tuesday before pushing offshore again late Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions should continue thru midweek. && .CLIMATE... Very warm temperatures will return today and especially Sunday, Record highs are listed for today/Sat 2/24. For Sun 2/25, both record highs and record high mins are listed: * Record Highs........Record Highs/Rec High Mins * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985).....83 (1930)...54 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012).....81 (2017)...59 (1930) * SBY: 77 (2012).....80 (1930)...52 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985).....78 (2017)...54 (1985) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/AJZ MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...

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