Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281110 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 710 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN NC AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN THIS AREA AND SCNTRL VA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE NC AS OF 400 AM...HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WANED WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRIKES HERE AND THERE. THE ATMOSPHERE HERE IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT AND AM ANTICIPATING PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NWRN BERTIE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL KEPT GENERATING AND CROSSING THIS SAME AREA OVER SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.50 INCHES BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN REALITY. FLOOD ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 AM WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK ATTM AS PRECIP IS FINALLY SHIFTING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE IMPACT AREA. OVERALL...THE BULK OF PRECIP GENERATION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NWD THROUGH TODAY. DESPITE THIS TREND...COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DRY SLOT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ENTRAINS INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS. BY THIS AFTN...THE DRY SLOT WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND NE NC ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS ARE MORE PROBABLE TODAY. SPC HAS SCNTRL VA AND NE NC AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FARTHER SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED IFR AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY WAS IFR EARLIER...BUT HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NE. RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD...AND SBY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR BY MIDDAY DUE TO THIS NWD SHIFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS MORNING AND THIS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER ...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT LAKES IS RIDGING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND AVERAGING AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-4FT N...TO 2- 3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING 1.0-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BISHOPS HEAD AND CAMBRIDGE DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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