Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 252358 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 758 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S. NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY. KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75. MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW. ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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&& .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ESS/DAP MARINE...TMG

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