Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190328 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1028 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND NRN VA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM 12-16K FT AGL. THE DRY AIR BELOW THAT LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING...LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CROSSING THE REGION. BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND THRU LATE TONIGHT. WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SKIES CLEARING THRU THE MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CALM-LIGHT NLY WINDS. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST. WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S. THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO 20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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