Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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032 FXUS61 KAKQ 281937 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina border tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Weak S/W aloft tracking E into ern VA attm continues to bring SHRAs/ISOLD tstms to E and SE portions of the FA. Meanwhile...a sfc boundary remains near the VA-NC border...then is aligned NW through wrn VA into wrn PA. Residual in-situ low level wedge remains tough to dislodge...and w/ earlier RA wrn/central portions...and RA now in the E...that wedge will be tough to dislodge through the evening hours. Despite breaks of sunshine and dewpoints in the u60s-l70s...stability parameters and onshore winds show wedge the best...and will likely limit convective development (w/ possible exception near-S of the VA- NC border and W of the FA) through this evening...where best heating/instability will linger and possible additional ISOLD- SCT tstms may develop. Near term models and HRRR reflectively suggest limited coverage through this evening over the bulk of the FA...waning overnight. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy tonight. Will include patchy FG overnight as well. Lows ranging through the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then continue E Mon afternoon. Models continue to show drying over most of the area...w/ the instability/moisture axis shifting SE into far SE VA-NE NC...where additional SHRAS/tstms are possible in the afternoon/evening. Partly sunny on Memorial Day with highs in the l-m80s N to the m-u80s S (70s along the Atlantic beaches of the eastern shore). 12Z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft...stalling immediately N of the region to perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. The chc for aftn/evening SHRAS/tstms will diminish Tue...though will continue w/ 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC. Highs Tue from the u70s-l80s at the coast to the m80s inland...after morning lows ranging through the 60s. Little change in conditions Tue night-Wed. Upper level trough to sharpen into the ern CONUS...though a strong enough trigger for widespread convective development (esp Wed) ill-defined. Maintaining PoPs (15-25%) in far SE VA-NE NC...mainly Wed afternoon. Lows Tue night in the 60s. Highs Wed in the u70s- l80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the region. High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 17z...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were over eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. Activity was moving to the northeast. A frontal boundary extended from the Atlantic along the VA/NC border to the Piedmont then continuing as a warm front into Ohio and Indiana. A few additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late today into early this evening. Onshore flow will promote another round of stratus and fog Monday morning with areas of IFR especially inland areas. Conditions return to VFR late Monday morning. OUTLOOK...There will be a chance for thunderstorms southeast portions Tuesday. Otherwise mainly dry weather is forecast through Thursday with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible. The chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms increase on Friday mainly in southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis places a cold front near the Virginia and North Carolina border with high pressure centered off the Northeast coast. The result is onshore flow north of the boundary and south to southwest flow over the North Carolina waters. Speeds are generally at or below 10 knots. Waves generally 1 foot and seas 2 feet. The frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the North Carolina and Virginia border today as a wave of low pressure pushes offshore late today into tonight. Flow remains onshore at 10-15 knots today, becoming south to southeast this evening, and then west to southwest late tonight. Seas build to 2-3 feet, with waves of 1-2 feet. The front lifts northward Monday as low pressure lifts into eastern Canada. A trailing cold front stalls near the coast Monday afternoon. Model differences with waves of low pressure and the placement of the front/surface trough result in a challenging wind forecast Monday and Monday night, with flow generally west to southwest at or below 10 knots. Waves remain 1-2 feet and seas 2-3 feet. The weak front remains near the coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The next front pushes across the waters Tuesday night. A lack of cold advection expected to keep conditions sub-SCA Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday, centering over the waters on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/JAO NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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