Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282345 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY... SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)... HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK... THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...LKB

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