Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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639 FXUS61 KAKQ 181257 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 857 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through Friday and gradually slides offshore next weekend with temperatures gradually moderating. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update...Frost Advisory allowed to expire at 900 AM. Dewpoints have warmed at to above 35 degrees. Previous discussion... The current surface analysis depicts 1028mb high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. A clear sky, calm conditions, and a dry airmass have combined to produce ideal radiational cooling conditions across most of the local area with temperatures generally 35-40F from the Piedmont to E-central VA and interior NE NC across to the Lower MD Ern Shore. Farther SE, temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s for coastal SE VA/NE NC where a light N wind persists. The frost advisory for the Piedmont remains on track, with some patchy possible to the E of the advisory over rural portions of the interior coastal plain. High pressure, surface and aloft will remain over the region today producing very pleasant conditions with a sunny sky and light wind. The airmass modifies and high temperatures range form 65-70F. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure remains over the area tonight as a trough swings across the Great Lakes temporarily suppressing the mid/upper high farther south across the Gulf Coast states. Radiational cooling should again be rather ideal tonight with a clear sky and calm conditions. Lows will be a few degrees higher tonight ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s inland to the upper 40s/low 50s for coastal SE VA. The mid/upper high rebuilds across the region Thursday and Friday and surface high pressure continues to prevail. Expect sunny/clear and dry conditions to continue with a light wind. Highs Thursday reach 70-75F as the airmass continues to modify. By Friday, highs reach the mid 70s after morning lows in the mid/upper 40 inland, to the low/mid 50s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will show chance PoPs Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure is situated over the region early this morning. The sky is clear and the wind is calm at most locations, with a localized northerly wind of 5-10kt at ECG. Expect clear conditions to continue today into tonight, with a light wind today becoming calm tonight. High pressure will remain over the region Thursday and Friday, and then gradually slide offshore Saturday and Sunday. Mainly clear/sunny and dry conditions will prevail with a light wind. && .MARINE... The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the region. Winds are primarily out of the northeast and range from 5 to 10 knots over the waters. Seas are generally 2 to 4 feet and continue to decrease, waves over the Bay are 1 to 2 feet. The high pressure remains centered over the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend allowing light winds/seas and an extended period of sub-SCA conditions. A weak front may try to move through the northern waters Friday afternoon, briefly turning the winds to the northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...ALB EQUIPMENT...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.