Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230627 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 227 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO 20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH (INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024- 025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>633. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAM MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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