Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130157 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 957 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. FLOW ALOFT IS WNW. NEARLY ALL HE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS DISSIPATED AND NO SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ANYWHERE IN THE REGION. WILL WATCH A WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ESE ACROSS WEST VA. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 07-11Z. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE RAP ALSO HINTS THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE PUT A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF RIC OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA IF NOT ALL WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERALL...EXPECT LESS FOG THAN PAST 2 NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT (SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SSW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER TODAY`S READINGS...WITH LOWER-MID 90S ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER EAST. BULK OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO STAY N OF AKQ CWA FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL FAVOR THE DRIER GFS OVER THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION. WILL CARRY A 30% POP OVER THE FAR NORTH...WITH 20% POPS INTO CENTRAL VA AND DRY ACRS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA LOOKS TO PUSH A STRONG SHORTWAVE SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WRN LAKES ON MON. THIS ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO INCREASE FURTHER. SPC HAS NW 1/3 OF CWA OUTLINED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THIS IS 2 DAYS OUT. A STRONG SW FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER OFTEN DRIES AKQ CWA OUT (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC POPS DEVELOPING BY MON AFTN OVER THE NW COUNTIES TAPERED TO ONLY 20% POPS IN SE VA/NE NC (THINK GFS DEPICTION OF AM SHOWERS IN THE SE IS OVERDONE). HIGHS LOWER TO MID 90S MOST AREAS (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES). POPS ACTUALLY MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT MON EVENING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30% POPS ALL ZONES. WARM/HUMID MON NIGHT W/ LOWS MAINLY 70-75 F. BY TUE...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING RRQ FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS BY AFTN ALL ZONES...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL TEND TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT TUE NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES...EJECTING THE LOW NEWD INTO SE CANADA. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE CLOSED LOW...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE > 2000 J/KG. ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT THE ERN PORTION LIKELY STALLING OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS WEDS ACROSS THE SE AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEK AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE HIGH RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC CREATING NE/ENE WINDS. THIS SETUP CAN CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU 06Z WITH NO EXPECTED FLIGHT HAZARDS. WINDS DROP OFF ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AT ATT TERMINALS BUT KORF...WERE ENOUGH WIND EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE FOG THREAT. ATTM...HAVE TEMPO IFR ONLY AT KSBY. SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED...FOG COULD BE A LITTLE MORE DENSE AT KSBY/KPHF. WINDS BECOME SSW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST IN TERMINALS...ALTHO NAM WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTMS AT KRIC/KPHF/KORF IN THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AKQ MARINE WATERS. MEANWHILE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SE CONUS TODAY. FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 18-20 KT SUNDAY EVENING. SLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS WED MORNING. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST FRONT BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NE WITH THE WINDS BECOMING WEAK AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH BUILDING EAST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB/JAO LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...WRS MARINE...DAP

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