Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281037 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 632 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID FROM SUNDAY ON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EDT...A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANY PATCHY FOG APPEARED LIMITED TO THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS... NAMELY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE NO FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THOSE COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO UPPER 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DIURNAL CU MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE +11C TO +12C...WHICH WITH PRETTY GOOD MIXING...WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY)...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. TONIGHT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT MOST...ALLOWING FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S MOST OTHER PLACES. WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF PATCHY FOG...SO INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS. THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP A LITTLE... BUT GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 50S SO ANOTHER FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLIKELY...SO NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT... GENERALLY 55-60 EXCEPT 50-55 IN THE COOLER REMOTE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY...MID 70S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IT LOOKS AS IF VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVENTED FOG FROM FORMING AT THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 AGL WERE REPORTED AT KPSF. SOME MIDDAY SCT-BKN CU WILL FORM WITH BASES 4KFT-5KFT. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED. A WEST WILL REACH AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS (MORE WSW AT KGFL). TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING TO CALM. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...CALLED IT IFR MIST (2SM) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z...IFR MIST (2SM) AT KSPF AFTER 08Z... BUT ONLY MIFG AT KPOU AND KALB WITH NO RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW. UNTIL AFTER 06Z. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY SHOULD BE REALIZED EACH NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SOME MORNING DEW. THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SAME AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. OTHERWISE IT WILL START OUT SEASONABLE...BUT GETTING WARM TO HOT AS HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY...IN THE 40S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO CREEP UP HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL BE WEST OR SOUTHWEST TODAY 5-10 MPH...LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT... THEN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...VTK LONG TERM...VTK AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/VTK HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/VTK

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