Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 260923 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID 70S TO MID 80S. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000- 2000 J/KG. PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION. WE EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE MTNS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN QUEBEC. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL. THE WPC GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH. OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM. SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT AT THIS TIME. WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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