Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 121129 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 629 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 625 AM...A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING JUST WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS INLAND EXTENT AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION BELOW ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO -10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN. THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND TEMPS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE 40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AT KPSF SHORTLY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN. MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET. TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084. MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFM NEAR TERM...LFM SHORT TERM...LFM LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

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