Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 231724 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 122 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP IS MUCH LESS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH IS BELOW... THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM- 4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM. IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850 TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY. WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME FOG MAY FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT SLOWS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH. TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...BGM HYDROLOGY...BGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.