Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 170145 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND 1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND... BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY AND ONTARIO. A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY BE DRY AGAIN. DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN. THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING REGION WIDE. DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED. DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV SHORT TERM...LFM LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM

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