Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 211808 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 108 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH. WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE 5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.