Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 201719 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 119 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 50 PERCENT. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM

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