Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 260757 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 357 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today. A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal temperatures by Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Despite some high level cirrus, skies remain clear this morning. This has allowed for temperatures to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Radiational fog has also developed across the area, mainly in the river valley locations. This fog should burn off and lift shortly after sunrise this morning. High pressure will continue to dominate the sensible weather today with another hot and humid day on tap. High temperatures are expected to yet again climb into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies. A few very isolated showers may be possible as well, mainly over the high terrain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Wednesday looks like our last summer-like day as the upper ridge that has been firmly in place finally breaks down. This is in response to an upper trough and associated cold front approaching the area from the west. There is relatively little moisture associated with the cold front but the heat and humidity along with some instability will support scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening prior to the cold frontal passage. Warm temperatures aloft and light winds will limit the instability and shear, so chances of strong to severe thunderstorms look minimal. Highs Wednesday are expected to warm into the 80s to near 90 degrees. The surface cold front is timed to track through Wednesday evening into the overnight period, allowing for winds to turn out of the north and start ushering in cooler air. Some isolated showers will be possible as well through early Thursday morning. Temperatures will start to feel cooler overnight as values dip into the 40s in the Adirondacks and into the upper 50s elsewhere. Cold air advection will ensue throughout the day Thursday with breezy north to northwesterly winds. This will allow for a return to fall normals with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The core of the coldest air looks to arrive sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. In fact, the latest GEFS shows the above normal warmth exiting the area Wednesday night with slightly (-1 to -2 S.D. 925mb Temps) below normal air entering New York Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday night will likely dip into the 40s, potentially some upper 30s in the Adirondacks.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The extended period will feature much more seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions with only one minor rain threat to discuss. Following the cold front from Thursday, Canadian high pressure takes control of our region on Friday. The thermal axis moves into our area during the day Friday with H850 isotherms in the low single digits yielding cooler temperatures than seen on Thursday. Highs should only finish in the upper 50s/low 60s. While the majority of Friday should be dry, we should see gradually increasing clouds as a shortwave trough embedded in a positively tilted longwave trough progresses from the Great Lakes into the Northeast heading into Saturday. Guidance continues to trend slower with the onset timing of showers and also has shifted the position of the surface low further south in the mid-Atlantic. While the Euro in recent runs showed the shortwave cutting off with much more moisture, the recent 00z run is more in line with the GFS and Canadian output showing a weaker and drier shortwave. In addition, the 300 mb jet dynamics are not favorable for a widespread rain event in the 00z model suite. Therefore, am growing confident that the total rainfall from isolated to scattered showers should only range from around a tenth to less than two tenths. In terms of timing, kept 12-18z Friday dry as any initial moisture and positive vorticity advection will have to fight dry air initially. Then increased POPS to slight chance in extreme western areas 18z Fri - 00z Sat. Increased POPS from west to east Friday night but only peaked on the low end of chance given the southern/drier trend. Lingered slight chance POPs for daytime Saturday to be in line with the neighboring offices; however, the best chance for any leftover showers should be in the morning in western New England as subsidence behind departing shortwave should give drier conditions for the second half of the day. Temperatures stay seasonably cool in the 60s thanks to northwest flow. Strong high pressure (potentially 1030-1035mb) from the Midwest then tracks into the region Sunday - Tuesday, continuing the dry and pleasant weather. As the high shifts into New England by Monday - Tuesday, return flow should set in and high temperatures look to rise back into the low 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure/ridging at the surface and aloft will remain in place over the region through this afternoon. The ridge then begins breaking down late as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Another round of radiational mist/fog is expected this morning with greatest confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF. KALB/KPOU less confident for IFR or lower conditions so have placed some shallow fog/MIFG or visibilities close to 6SM. Fog ends by 12Z-13Z and VFR conditions return with VFR continuing through this evening. Towards the end of the TAF period, radiational fog/mist will be possible once again. Expect calm winds this morning and light east to southeast winds at 6 Kt or less through this afternoon. Winds will then trend towards calm late tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today. A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal temperatures by Thursday.
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RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range tonight and Wednesday night. RH values will drop to 45 to 60 percent this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. East to southeast winds at less than 10 mph today and tonight. Winds shift to southwest at less than 15 mph Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. Fair and warm weather is forecast through mid-week as high pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures may be possible today. Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 26: Albany NY: September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM NEAR TERM...JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...NAS/JVM FIRE WEATHER...JVM HYDROLOGY...JVM CLIMATE...

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