Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 190458 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1258 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will move across the region tonight with light snow accumulations across the western Adirondacks and the southern Greens. Cool and brisk conditions continue tomorrow with a chance of lake effect snow showers again. It will become cold and windy Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a strong cold front moving across the region with some accumulating snow over the higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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.UPDATE...Main change with this update was to increase PoPs overnight along and just west of the spine of the S. Greens, Taconics and Berkshires. Radar indicating upslope snow showers persisting in these areas, where the NW flow is slightly blocked (sub-critical). A dusting to additional inch or so of accumulation is possible through the rest of the night. Elsewhere upslope snow showers continue across the western Adirondacks. Temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s across the region. .PREV DISCUSSION[1026]...A positively tilted mid level short- wave trough will move across the region tonight. The combination of the cyclonic flow, lake enhancement and upslope will be allowing for some snow showers overnight, especially across the western Adirondacks and southern Greens. Some occasional light snow showers will also impact parts of the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, eastern Catskills and Berkshires. A few passing snow showers and flurries may even make into the Capital Region and parts of the Hudson Valley during the overnight as well, although the best chance for a light accumulation (coating to an inch or two) will be for the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. It will be chilly and brisk tonight in the cold advection in the wake of the sfc trough and upper level disturbance. West to northwest winds will continue at 10 to 20 mph. Lows will be in the 20s with teens over the southern Dacks and southern Greens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tomorrow...Another clipper low will be approaching from the Upper Midwest and southern Ontario. The general mid and upper level cyclonic flow will continue with below normal H850 temps and low/mid level heights. The boundary layer flow backs to the west and some weak warm advection will occurs ahead of this system late in the day. Most of the day will dry and brisk from the Hudson River Valley eastward. Some lake enhanced snow showers with weak synoptic lift will start to increase late in the day especially across the southern and western Dacks where an additional inch or so of snow may occur. We did bring the slight and low chance PoPs close to the Capital Region northward towards sunset. Highs will run below normal by a few degrees with upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. Some mid 40s are possible in the mid Hudson Valley. Tue Night into Wednesday...This a time frame we will have to monitor for perhaps some Winter Weather Advisories for the western Dacks and southern Greens. Initially, some isentropic lift occurs ahead of the clipper and its attendant warm front. There may be some orographic enhancement with the W/SW flow off the southern/western Dacks and southern Greens for 2-4" of snow or possibly 3-6" in a few locations. We did lower the snow to liquid ratios close to 15-13:1 instead of 18:20-1 so our tallies are lower than WPC. Overall, dusting to an inch are possible from from the Capital District and the northern/eastern Catskills north including the Mohawk Valley. Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Additional lake effect and upslope snow showers are possible during the day Wednesday, but a strong cold front will be approaching. Temps will warm to seasonal levels ahead of the approaching for the late afternoon/evening time frame. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s in the valleys with some 50F reading near KPOU and 30s over the higher terrain. A strong cold front moves across the region Wed night with additional lake effect and upslope snow showers with strong upper level dynamics. Additional snow accums of 1-3" are possible over the higher terrain. It will become blustery and cold Wed night into Thu. Lows will fall back into the teens and 20s in cold advection. The coldest day of the week will be Thu with west/northwest winds 12-25 mph and gusts 30-45 mph. Max temps will be about 10 degrees below normal. Some flurries or scattered snow showers will linger over the Adirondack Park. Highs will be in the 20s over the mtns and lower to upper 30s in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A weakening trough over the region Thursday night will give way to a brief ridge of high pressure by Friday morning, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Tranquillity will persist through at least Friday night with cooler than normal temperatures only expected to reach the mid to upper 30s with pockets of upper 20s mainly in the SW Adirondacks and Southern Greens and low 40s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. An unsettled pattern ensues for the weekend, though the forecast continues to be riddled with considerable uncertainty with long range models struggling to come to a consensus on the tracks and interaction of two key features: a northern stream shortwave and a southern stream cutoff low. Despite the significant variability in the details portrayed by the guidance, the more common solution indicates the progression of the shortwave through the region beginning late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing widespread precipitation. Unphased, the northern-stream cutoff looks to remain south of the region, negating any enhancement in precipitation. The GFS, though the outlier, does suggest a solution wherein these two features phase, which would lead to larger QPF across much of the area. The variations in the evolution of this scenario contribute additional uncertainty to the precipitation type forecast. With a cool antecedent airmass, low temperatures Friday night will primarily span the 20s with upper tens in the SW Adirondacks and Southern Greens and low 30s in the Hudson Valley. With precipitation expected, at this point, to begin by late Friday night, onset type is expected to be snow. However, as flow transitions to the southwest into Saturday morning, inducing warm air advection, high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s across much of the area with pockets of low to mid 30s in the SW Adirondacks. Ongoing precipitation will then transition to primarily rain except at higher terrain where snow or a mix of the two will be possible. Much of the precipitation should taper off by Saturday evening with just some lingering lake-induced showers in the SW Adirondacks Possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as left over energy pulses through the region. Then, high pressure begins to build in once again during the day Sunday to bring back dry conditions for the remainder of the weekend and beginning of the work week. Highs Sunday will be similar to Saturday with primarily 30s and 40s across the region. Temperatures will then moderate into the low to mid 40s with pockets of upper 30s by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level shortwave trough is moving across the Northeast. Cyclonic flow, aided by lake enhancement, is allowing for plenty of stratocu across the region, but ceilings are around 4-6 kft, keeping flying conditions VFR. Through the overnight hours, bkn-ovc cigs will be similar, keeping it VFR. Most of the snow shower activity will generally be west of the region, although a few snow showers could get close to ALB/KPSF during the middle of the overnight. Any snow shower looks brief and fairly spotty, so won`t include more than a VCSH right now, but a brief reduction to visibility can`t be totally ruled out. On Tuesday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR. Sct-bkn cigs will still be around 4000 to 6000 ft for all sites, with cloud coverage slowly decreasing through the day. West to northwest winds will be around 10 kts overnight, with some higher gusts earlier in the overnight. Winds will still be around 10 to 15 kts again on Tuesday with some higher gusts at times. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values are expected to drop to around 35- 40 percent tomorrow afternoon with wind gusts of 20 to 25 kt across portions of the Hudson Valley and western Connecticut. Most places are expected to see some light precipitation on Wednesday, but Thursday afternoon may also feature low RH values and breezy conditions in the afternoon. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...Main

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