Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 202153 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S. ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S. THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST 14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REACHES FURTHER N. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...11

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