Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 221121 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE. SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR TUE AFTERNOON. W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS/JPV FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

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