Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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328 FXUS61 KALY 280511 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 111 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple frontal boundaries approach. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1215 AM EDT...A stationary frontal boundary lay draped across eastern New England while a weak trough of low pressure was across central New York. Most of the shower activity has ended leaving the forecast area with a very mild and muggy night with some patchy fog/haze possible overnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for much of the area. The upper level ridge axis is forecast to strengthen further, which will tend to inhibit convection potential. Strong heating and increasing low level moisture will still result in isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating from late morning into the afternoon hours. Again will only mention 20-30 pops with limited coverage across the area, with the somewhat better chances north and south of I-90 and the Capital District, where terrain may the main factor in generating convection. The main story Saturday will be very warm temperatures likely exceeding daily records at climate sites Albany, Poughkeepsie, and Glens Falls. See climate section below for details. Most valley locations are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. It will feel muggy as well, with dewpoints well into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Once again, any convection will dissipate shortly after dark Saturday evening, as it will be diurnally driven under the influence of the upper level ridge. It will be another mild night with temps well above normal. Similar conditions forecast for Sunday, as the upper level ridge remains in place. However, there may be somewhat greater coverage of convection due to the ridge axis eastward into New England by late in the day. The low level focus for potentially more showers and storms will be a side-door cold front moving southward along the New England coast. This boundary is not expected to make enough southward progress to infiltrate our area, but may provide enough lift for scattered convection by the afternoon. Temps will remain quite warm, but maybe a few degrees lower than Saturday due to greater coverage of clouds/convection. Humid conditions will persist with dewpoints remaining in the 60s. Chances for showers and storms will actually continue Sunday night into early Monday morning, as an open wave upper level trough will approach from the Great Lakes region, providing some larger scale ascent with the warm and humid air mass in place. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A we go into the day on Monday, consensus between the latest 12z models does show moisture from the southwest Atlantic advecting northward into the region thanks to a High pressure system centered northeast of Bermuda. PWAT anomalies in some of the probabilistic guidance range between 2 to near 3 S.D. Best chances of precipitation will be during the day on Monday with highest QPF amounts in our southeastern areas. We will continue to monitor the latest trends with this tropical moisture and update the forecast accordingly. With an established southwesterly flow with tropical moisture moving poleward, high temperatures on Monday will be slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s with Td ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, so it will be quite humid on Monday. We can also not rule out some thunderstorms to start the extended period on Monday. Some of the latest guidance has some showers lingering into Tuesday morning as a cold front makes it way through the region. Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected to remain throughout most of the long term forecast period as a high pressure system remains in control from tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will remain above average. As we go into the day on Friday, our next chance of showers and thunderstorms return into the region with temperatures near average for early June. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid southwest flow across the region through Saturday night. Through Saturday daybreak, areas of MVFR/IFR in BR/FG may develop, especially at KPOU and KPSF, where some showers occurred or were nearby Friday afternoon/evening. The chances for BR/FG will be least at KALB. After Saturday daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of the TAF sites. Have not included any mention of showers/thunderstorms in TAFs at this time. For Saturday night, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward and especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF. Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, then should become southwest to west at 5-10 KT later Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once again Saturday evening. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple frontal boundaries approach. Relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100 percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 40 to 50 percent Saturday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 85 and 100 percent Saturday night. Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 mph, becoming southwest around 5 mph on Saturday. Winds Saturday night will be light and variable. && .HYDROLOGY... Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas especially Sunday and Monday. Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .CLIMATE... With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a look at some record high temperatures. Albany NY... May 27th...94 degrees 1914 May 28th...91 degrees 1911 May 29th...93 degrees 1931 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY... May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978 May 28th...88 degrees 1988 May 29th...88 degrees 2012 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY... May 27th...91 degrees 1965 May 28th...90 degrees 2012 May 29th...96 degrees 1969 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/JPV NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...11/JPV CLIMATE...

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