Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 271807 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT... H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH. THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014 AMOUNT DATE YEAR 1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25 1971 2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15 1972 3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23 1943 4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18 1980 5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27 2014 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...SND AVIATION...GJM HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

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