Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 011023 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 623 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEARBY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 623 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS IN BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WE REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO SKIES RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND THIS COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE DUE TO YESTERDAY/S THUNDERSTORMS RAINFALL...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING...ESP FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. AFTERWARD...IT WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SMALL DUE TO WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO THUNDER WILL JUST BE ISOLATED AT BEST...AND ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH NO THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AND FINALLY CROSSING OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS NJ AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. POPS AREN/T ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL INFLUENCES...WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS EITHER. WHILE THE WEEKEND PROBABLY WON/T BE A FULL WASHOUT ACROSS OUR AREA...IT/S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS EACH DAY LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR THE PERIOD...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST GROW AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPED OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BERTHA EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FORECAST AND DETAILS ON BERTHA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS/BOUNDARIES TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY USHERING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAINED UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY MID WEEK AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REGION WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMED HOWEVER IT HAS VARIABLE DUE TO SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND ANY STRATUS WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TODAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT MOST OF THE TIME...ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

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