Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 021414 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1014 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1010 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...BUT BEFORE IT DOES...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. WITH THESE SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/ AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME MIXED OUT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE. WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY EXITING BUT CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FEET STILL LINGERING AS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE COAST INLAND. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW INTO CENTRAL MA...SO THE VCSH FOR KPSF SHOULD CONTINUE ONLY THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. CLEARING IS STILL SEEN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN NY...BUT AGAIN THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST CIRCULATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLOW ADVANCE TO THE CLEARING. THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z-22Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO KGFL AND KPSF WHERE CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11 SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...11/NAS FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.