Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 300131 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 931 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of the Lake George region/upper Hudson Valley and southern VT. Although the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the region, enough instability remains to allow for these isolated showers. Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT through around midnight, when the loss of daytime heating should allow the threat for any showers to end. Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with some upper 40s into the Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain. In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return flow of increasing moisture. The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95, however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson Valley). An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing, they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient to support organized line elements with average values around 30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s expected due to the cloud coverage increase. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday. A low pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm early Tue into Wed. Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region. High pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains. Lows both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Humidity levels will be very comfortable for early July. On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal. A low pressure system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. A few showers may reach the lower to mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more humid in the W to NW flow aloft. Another disturbance may pass south of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. It is hard to time disturbances in the fast flow. Highs could reach the upper 80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the long term. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes Region tonight into Thursday. Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between 07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due to decent mixing and the strong late June sun. West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40 percent... In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend. Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar estimates of 3 to 4 inches. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area. Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall. The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet in drought. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...KL/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...KL/Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

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