Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 011936 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER. OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH 60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S. FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE REALIZED. NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO +8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL WEATHER. LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO 08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z- 14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK. RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN MOVED IN. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED. TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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