Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 020908 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15 DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY. IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY. THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z. CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT WILL WEAKEN. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .HYDROLOGY... FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .EQUIPMENT... KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME CONTINUES. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

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