Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 192345 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 645 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery conditions will prevail through Monday with below normal temperatures. Lake effect snow will develop tonight impacting the western and central Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley before shifting northward into the western and southern Adirondacks on Monday. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere. Warmer weather returns briefly Tuesday ahead of another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 PM EST, With wind gusts below criteria, we have let the advisory expire at 6 PM. However, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are still possible during the near term period. No other major changes were made to the forecast at this time. Prev Disc... As of 330 PM EST...While wind gust criteria is now below advisory criteria, we continue to receive impacts from the winds as we will leave the advisory in place at this time. Please refer to the recent public information statement (PNS) and local storm reports (LSR) for additional details on wind related impacts. H2O vapor loop shows the next short wave trough approaching the region as upstream regional radar imagery suggests an increase in convective activity. This activity is also the result of increasing lake instability which will be the main weather impact concern tonight. As has been discussed in several AFD`s, highly favorable lake effect parameters will be setting up tonight. Delta T`s are expected to approach or exceed 20C and inversion heights per BUFKIT at Utica near 10k feet tonight. Wind trajectories average near 290 degrees which places portions of the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley in a favorable location for accumulating lake effect snow. However, consistent band placement remains a bit in question as seen in the 3kmNAM and HRRR/RAP. This is likely due to additional short waves seen in the H2O vapor loop upstream that may buckle the flow a bit to reduce persistent lake bands. Hence our forecast accumulations of 1" to as much as 4" overnight are expected to be below headline criteria at this time. Outside of lake effect areas, favorable upslope conditions and low level moist flow should hold onto clouds across the terrain overnight. Lows will be rather chilly as they should range from the teens across the Dacks to near freezing for the mid-Hudson Valley and southern portions of Litchfield County. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Residual upper wave impulses are expected to track east of the region Monday morning. This should allow lake effect band(s) to slide northward a bit in the morning and impact portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Taconics and Berks. Then the mean flow quickly shifts toward the west-southwest by noon as upstream warm advection begins to unfold. This too should cut down on the instability across Lake Ontario and reduce the lake inland extent through the afternoon. Otherwise, with broad moist isentropic lift setting up, clouds will likely increase once again across most of the region. Some light precipitation may fall mainly across the higher terrain with upslope conditions evolving. Highs should range from lower 30s across the Dacks to lower 40s for the mid-Hudson Valley which is a good blend of the latest MOS. Monday night, good consensus favors taking the warm front and lifting it northward through the night with ample drier air advecting in on a southwest flow regime. So diminishing both any precipitation and cloud coverage from south to north. Overnight lows generally into the 20s for the entire region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front will be moving towards the region from the Great Lakes for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture with this northern stream feature will be limited, but a band of rain or snow showers will accompany the front as it moves across the region from west to east. Although most valley areas will only see rain showers, some snow will be possible at the higher elevations, but any accumulations looks rather light due to the limited precip amounts. Low temps on Tuesday night will mainly be in the 30s with temps on Wednesday only rising slightly behind the front, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Behind the front, there could be a brief shot of some lake-effect snow showers for far western areas for Wednesday afternoon or evening, but this should quickly end, as surface high pressure slides towards the region from the Midwest. As a result, mainly dry weather is expected for Wed night and into Thanksgiving Day (Thursday). Lows will be in the 20s and Thanksgiving Day Highs will be in the 30s to low 40s with a partly sunny sky. A fast moving shortwave will slide across southern Canada for Thursday night. A few snow showers may brush into the Adirondacks, otherwise, this system will be too far north to have a big impact on our weather. Another area of high pressure will continue dry and quiet weather for Friday. Temps will continue to be fairly seasonable, with lows in the 20s and highs on Friday into mid 30s to mid 40s. The weather will be a little more active for Friday night into the weekend. A deepening trough will quickly shift from the northern Plains and Great Lakes towards the Northeast for the weekend. Although the main storm system will remain north of the region, a strong surface cold front will allow for some rain showers by Saturday. There could be a little mix or snow at the onset on Friday night, but with this storm track, most areas will be seeing mainly rain showers ahead of the approaching cold front. Behind the front, cooler air will quickly move in, allowing any lingering showers to changeover to snow showers for Saturday night. In addition, some upslope flow and lake-effect snow showers will develop for Sat night into Sunday as well, impacting mainly western and high terrain areas. Also, gusty winds are expected behind the storm system as well. Temps will be in the 30s and 40s for Saturday, but only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With strong northwesterly winds in place this evening, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are still possible for at least the next few hours. Winds will slightly diminish overnight with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible again tomorrow afternoon. Lingering low-level moisture behind the front will continue to keep bkn-ovc cigs at 3500-5000 ft through the overnight hours. Most valley sites (KALB/KGFL/KPOU) should be generally be VFR, with high end MVFR conditions expected at KPSF for a time this evening before rising to VFR. Some more breaks in the clouds may start to occur around KPOU tonight, as downsloping off the Catskills allows for some more breaks there. Flying conditions should continue to be VFR through the day tomorrow with just sct- bkn cigs around 4-5 kft. In addition, a lake-effect band of snow showers off Lake Ontario will be impacting parts of the Mohawk Valley overnight and into tomorrow morning. It`s possible that some snow showers from this activity even reach into the Capital Region and Berkshires for around and after midnight, impacting KALB/KPSF. Some flurries may continue into tomorrow morning, as the band drifts back northward, before dissipating by late morning. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Blustery conditions will prevail through Monday with below normal temperatures. Lake effect snow will develop tonight impacting the western and central Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley before shifting northward into the western and southern Adirondacks on Monday. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere. Warmer weather returns briefly Tuesday ahead of another cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers for the next several days. Lake effect snow will develop by this evening impacting the western and central Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley tonight then shifting northward into the western and southern Adirondacks on Monday. While isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere. Mainly fair weather is then expected the rest of the week with unsettled weather expected for next weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM/JVM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis/JVM FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

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