Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231536 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1036 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move through the region this morning with above normal temperatures. A low pressure system and its cold front will bring periods of rain to eastern New York and western New England late this morning into the afternoon. In the wake of the cold front tonight, colder more seasonable air will return with brisk conditions for the mid week. Some light snow accumulations will be possible north and west of the Capital Region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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...Winter Weather Advisory continues until noon for Warren/N. Washington and Windham Cos... ...Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning for all eastern NY/western New England outside of N. Herkimer/Hamilton Cos... As of 1035 AM EST, still pockets of freezing rain ongoing across Warren CO/Northern Washington CO (NY) and Windham CO (VT). Have extended pre-existing Winter Weather Advisory another couple of hours until noon for these areas, which are currently hovering right around the freezing mark. Ice accretion of up to one quarter of an inch could occur in these areas before temps rise above freezing. Even after rising above freezing, some ground surfaces will likely remain icy due to the ice accretion from this morning. Ice may accrete in portions of Windham County on trees/powerlines, which could allow for some isolated/scattered power outages. Elsewhere, solid shield of moderate to locally heavy rain continues across the area, although rain is becoming more showery to the south. We expect the steady rain to gradually become more showery from SW to NE through 1 PM. Previous discussion follows... A lull in the pcpn is likely in the early to mid pm, but then a secondary cold front will begin to approach the forecast area in the late afternoon with a better surge of cold advection and some rain to snow showers. Max temps will be on the balmy side today with 40s to lower 50s for highs, as a few mid 50s are possible in the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. However, these highs will likely occur mainly after the rain tapers to showers, and in fact, may not occur until early to mid afternoon. The winds will be breezy from the south to southeast, and then shift to southwest in the late afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The Flood Watch will continue into the night time period for ice jams or a combo of ice jams, snow melt, and runoff. However, we will not have 2 consecutive days of an avg temp of 42F or greater for more widespread break up ice jam potential issues like what occurred on 12-13 JAN. Total rainfall will be in the half an inch to one and a half inch range. Tonight...Much colder air will rush back into the forecast area as a secondary cold front moves across the region. The rain showers will transition to snow showers. West to northwest orographic enhancement off the western spine of the Adirondacks and southern Greens may yield 1-3 inches of snowfall with some locally higher amounts. Some lake moisture will be tapped for the snow showers to spread into the Mohawk Valley/Northern Catskills and perhaps even the Capital Region for some coatings to a half an inch or so. The cold air advection will allow temps to fall back into the 20s with some teens over the southern Dacks. The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 10-20+ mph with some gusts in the 30-45 mph range especially funneling down the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley into the western New England higher terrain and northern Catskills especially after midnight. Wednesday will feature brisk and cold conditions with snow showers and flurries ending especially north and west of the Capital Region with few light snow accums. The latest BUFKIT momentum transfer profiles indicate some 30-35 kt gusts are possible if we mix to 2-3 kft AGL. The winds will diminish in the afternoon as the cyclone accelerates northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. High temps may be achieved prior to noontime, and may steady or slight fall thereafter with highs in the 20s to lower 30s with a few mid 30s from ALY south down the Hudson River Valley. Wednesday night...The mid and upper trough axis moves across the region with flurries/isolated snow showers west of the Hudson River Valley ending. It will be cold with lows in the single digits to teens with some below zero readings over the Adirondacks Park. Thu-Thu night will feature below normal temps with arctic high building in from southeast Ontario and Great Lakes Region. Temps will run about 5 degrees below normal for late JAN with still northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph due to the chilly cyclonic flow on the back side of the trough. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The period starts out Friday with a strong near-1040 mb area of high pressure over the region, gradually shifting eastward to the southern New England coast late in the day. This will result in dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Dry conditions will prevail Friday night into Saturday, as upper level heights rise across the region, while the surface high slowly moves eastward into the western Atlantic. A return southwest flow will set up around the periphery of the departing anticyclone, which will allow for a moderating trend. Temps forecast to be around 10-15 degrees above normal on Saturday. Models then start to diverge late Saturday through early next week, as the ECMWF and CMC indicate an amplifying pattern with strong upper level ridging along the east coast persisting through the weekend, while the GFS is much less amplified and has a northern stream cold front pushing through. Will side with the more amplified pattern for now, which has shown more consistency among the ECMWF and CMC the past few runs. The resulting forecast is increasing chances for rain Saturday night into Sunday, as a frontal boundary sets up across our area with a mild southerly flow aloft, while a deepening upper level trough pushes east from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley region. A wave of low pressure is then forecast to develop along the front and track northeastward right through eastern New York and western New England Sunday night into Monday. This would result in possible prolonged and potentially heavy rainfall event, with rain changing to snow on the back side west of the Hudson Valley. This is still 6-7 days away, but we will continue to monitor the evolution of this system as it could cause hydrologic issues associated with heavy rainfall and/or wintry precip on the back side of cyclone into early next week. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rain, moderate to locally heavy at times, will develop by around 12Z across the region in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The steady moderate/heavy rain will last through the rest of the morning into the early afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Expect flying conditions to be IFR/LIFR during this time. After the cold front passage, gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR with scattered showers then expected late this afternoon into this evening. Low-level wind shear will continue be an issue this morning into early this afternoon, as a strong southerly jet moves overhead. Wind speeds at 2000 ft AGL will be around 40-50 kt during this time. Will continue to mention the LLWS at all terminals. The jet should push east of the region by mid afternoon. Surface winds will be east-southeast around 10 kt or less, then becoming southwest around 10 kt in wake of the cold front passage later this. There will be some occasional gusts around 20 kt during the evening. Wind speeds will increase further after midnight to 10-15 kt with gusts around 25 kt. Outlook... Wednesday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings in Warren County, as some lingering issues continue due to existing ice jams which froze in place. Temperatures will continue to run above normal into today. The mildest night and day will be today with highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s with a much colder and more seasonable airmass returning tonight and through the remainder of the week. A low pressure system and its cold front will bring a moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the area today. QPF amounts are forecast at this time to range from half an inch to an inch and a half. The highest amounts are expected north and east of Albany and the Capital Region, extending into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. The rain is expected to cause rises on rivers and streams, which may move and dislodge ice and may cause flooding near ice jams. Mostly within bank rises are expected based on the latest NERFC forecasts and the MMEFS. However, the rising river/stream levels from runoff could be enough to dislodge ice jams which have been frozen in place over the past 10 days. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued, mainly to heighten awareness that ice jams frozen in place could dislodge and/or cause new flooding in some areas. Poor drainage flooding and ponding of water is also likely due to melting snow and enhanced rainfall rates. Colder and drier weather is expected from the mid week into early Saturday. However, another slow moving front may bring more rainfall late in the weekend. Our latest Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook (ESFALY) was issued this past Friday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NYZ038>043-047>054- 058>061-063>066-082>084. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ042-043- 083. MA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MAZ001-025. VT...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VTZ013>015. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VTZ014-015.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula

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