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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 200802
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT EARLY SUMMER DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS AND/OR A FEW FLAT CU...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MAIN CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE WARMING...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB PERSISTING. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NAM/GFS
INDICATING AN AREA OF HIGHER PWAT AND INSTABILITY WITH A POSSIBLE
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP BETWEEN MAINLY KALB AND
KPOU. SO THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM FOR THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...THUS ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FORECAST. ANY
STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND
OR HAIL DUE TO SBCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE YET A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS INDICATING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A POSSIBLE TRIGGER...INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO SCATTERED NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO INCREASES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT CHANGE IN WEATHER WILL NOT COME UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE REGION.
HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 35 PERCENT POPS DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
INIDICATE THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPS REACHING
90 DURING THE DAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS WED
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF DUE TO FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY P6SM SKC AT
THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z.
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR EACH
NIGHT...AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE
FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL...SO
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV