Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 012052 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 452 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM. OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000 J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS. ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN. THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY IN THE 70S. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS. ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY). FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.