Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 261734 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 134 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will exit the region this afternoon with increasing sunshine through the day today. Fair and warm conditions are forecast for Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 120 PM latest satellite and observations showing the frontal passage. Winds are shifting to the west north west behind the front. Satellite picture showing clouds diminishing from northwest to south east. Latest radar showing precip out of the region. Have removed all mention of rain this afternoon and increased sunshine in sky grids. Expect increasing sunshine this afternoon and less humid conditions. High temperates this afternoon will be in the lower 80s across the north country and mid to upper 80s from the Capital District south and East.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will control our weather through Saturday night with dry weather and above normal high temperatures Saturday. Highs Saturday in the 80s to near 90 but a degree or two cooler than today and around 80 northern areas. The influence of a strong upper ridge in the southeastern U.S. is keeping much of the eastern U.S. in warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend. However, some northern stream energy approaching from Canada will begin to push the upper ridging further south, signaling slow displacement of the eastern U.S. upper ridging into the beginning of next week. Later Saturday night, a cold front approaches from the north and makes gradual progress south through Sunday and Sunday night. An isolated shower may make it to the southern Adirondacks by daybreak Sunday. Otherwise, clouds, showers and thunderstorms will likely be confined to northern areas through the day Sunday with a partly to mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Boundary layer flow from the west and southwest supports the notion that central and southern areas should see the sun and delay in the appearance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Highs in the 80s to near 90 but around 80 northern areas, very similar to Saturday. The cold front makes more progress south through Sunday night and all areas will see solid chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty in the timing of the advance of the front as the leading edge of the boundary layer thermal gradient and associated forcing, supporting the increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, may or may not clear our areas by daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The beginning of the long term period, Mon-Wed, should still be dominated by above normal temperatures, despite a weak cold front settling southward Monday morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may accompany the front, especially across southern areas late in the day, but areal coverage looks quite limited due to very weak dynamics. Expect daytime highs through the period to mainly reach the 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher elevations. Some portions of the mid Hudson Valley could approach 90 Monday afternoon, especially if clouds and convection remain limited. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for 50s across higher terrain. Wednesday night into Thursday, most models suggest a cold front associated with a potent upper level low traversing southeast Canada tracks through the region. However, the amount of moisture that may be involved with this front remains uncertain, and highly dependent on any tropical entity along/off the southeast or Gulf coast. Models have trended weaker with any such entity, and suggest deeper moisture gets shunted well off the eastern seaboard, thus allowing only limited moisture availability for this front. Therefore, have kept mainly slight chance pops for isolated showers during this period. A Fall-like airmass may follow in the wake of this front, although the degree of cooling will ultimately depend on how far south/west the associated upper level trough digs across southeast Canada and eastern New England, as less digging would imply only slight cooling potential, while a stronger/deeper digging trough further west could allow for very chilly air to infiltrate the region Thursday night into early next weekend. For now, have indicated Thursday high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, except 60s across higher elevations. There could be some lake effect rain showers/sprinkles across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT by late Thursday around the south/southwest periphery of the upper level low as well. Slight chance pops have been indicated for this reason. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Expect VFR conditions across the TAF SITES this evening. Patchy ground fog could lead to brief MVFR/IFR conditions, especially at KPSF and KGFL after 07Z/Sat. By 13Z Sat, ceilings and visibilities will be VFR. Winds will be out of the West/northwest this evening at 5-10 KT, before decreasing to less than 5 KT overnight into Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will exit the region this afternoon with increasing sunshine through the day today. Fair and warm conditions are forecast for Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. A slight drying trend is expected into this afternoon with minimum RH values 45 to 55 percent. RH values increase up to 80 to 100 percent tonight, then dry back to 40 to 50 percent Saturday. South to southwest winds at 5-10 mph early this morning shift to west and northwest at 15 mph or less today. Near calm winds are expected tonight. North to northwest winds at 15 mph or less are expected Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning will produce up to a quarter inch of rain in some places locally but many areas will see a tenth of an inch or less. Dry weather is expected this afternoon and will continue Saturday into Sunday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...VTK SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...VTK FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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