Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KALY 300131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
931 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the Lake George region/upper Hudson Valley and southern VT.
Although the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the
region, enough instability remains to allow for these isolated
showers. Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT through around midnight, when the loss of daytime
heating should allow the threat for any showers to end.
Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.
In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.
The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday. A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.
Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region. High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains. Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.
On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal. A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain. A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft. Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow. Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.
Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.
Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.
West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.
Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.
The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our