Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 012008 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING PARTICULARLY WED. BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR SHOWERS. MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO MORNING TUE. TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED NT. SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE (DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK. CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET. THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ. TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...IAA/11 SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...LFM FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

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