Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 271100 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 520 AM EDT...PCPN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE NUMBER 2 MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH RAINFALL MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED INTO NEW YORK STATE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. TODAY WILL FEATURE A TALE OF TWO COLD FRONTS. COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO WHICH IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITHASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID- LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR TO SUNSET. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC. THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING QUICKLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. APRIL LOOKS TO START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S NORTH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S ARE LIKELY. A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA. MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH. NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11 NEAR TERM...11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11 HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11

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