Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 010831 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 431 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM...SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE DAY...AND DRY OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP...THE AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD. POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE AND EXTREME EASTERN CATSKILLS...EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN...WITH A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY). THE POPS AND ASSOCIATED QPF FORECASTS (ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS LIQUID WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST) HAVE BEEN BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS WHICH WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY SHOWED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MANY AREAS MAY GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE SNOW GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 35. SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY TURN FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT SPEEDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY. THE 00UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST WITH THE ONLT SIG DIF THE ECMWF`S FASTER TIMING OF TUES CDFNT. THE NAM HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MODERATE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MDL SUITE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/HPC. ALL PUSH WEAKENING CDFNT THRU FCA BY WED...STALLING IT FM MID ATLC TO OH VLY. THE SUITE IS MOST IN AGREEMENT WED WITH 19 OT 20 MEMBERS IN GEFS PLUMES DRY. AFTER THAT A SERIES OF 500HPA SHRT WVS DIVE INTO THE GRTLKS CUTTING OFF A 500HPA LOW OR CREATING A VERY SHARP TROF (GFS). AT THE SFC THIS INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND WHILE THE PARTICULARS OF THE SCENARIOS VARY...THE END RESULT IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE GRTLKS AND MVS E. GFS TAKES A ST LAWRENCE VLY TRACK...THE ECMWF HAS COASTAL REFORMATION IN GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER HERE...WITH CDFNT NOT EVEN CROSSING FCA TO THU. MEANWHILE THE GEFS PLUMES AFT 00UTC THU HAVE QPF FM NR ZERO TO 3 INCHES LIQ. GIVEN ONLY SOME AGREEMENT IN BIG PICTURE AND SPREAD IN THE PARTICULARS AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA...HPC APPEARS AS A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND WILL POPULATE WITH HPC 00UTC TNGT.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING... RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY (THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD). WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.10 TO 0.30 OF AN INCH WITH AS MUCH AS HALF FALLING AS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL 0.10 TO 0.30 WITH AS MUCH AS HALF FALLING AS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...GJM SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...KL/SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

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