Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231348 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH CLEARING SKIES. FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING WARM AND DRY SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE AND HAVE MENTIONED THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE SOME GENUINE CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (NORTH OF LAKE GEORGE). INDICATIONS ARE THIS DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...PROBABLY ALL DAY TO HAPPEN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR THIS REASON...WE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES (ONLY A COUPLE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION). ANY SUNSHINE HOWEVER WOULD LIKE SPAWN A FEW CU POSSIBLY GROWING TALL ENOUGH TO SPAWN A SHOWER. (OUR 12Z ALY RAOB HAD NO REAL CAP IN IT...MEANING THERE IS NOTHING TO PREVENT THEM FROM GROWING TALL ENOUGH TO AT LEAST POP A SHOWER...ALBEIT ISOLATED AT BEST). SO LOOK FOR FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON (NORTH TO SOUTH). SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 70-75 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GENERALLY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...LESS THAN 10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MON NIGHT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE WED OR WED NT. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD REACH/APPROACH 90...SHOULD THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS HOLD OFF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MON NT/TUE AM...THEN MAINLY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR TUE NT/WED AM. THU-FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE WED NT OR THU. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT COULD BE SLOWED ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW/W ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH COULD HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS...AND RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE CHC POPS FOR LATE WED NT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES INDEED PASS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO FRI...IN CASE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWER. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY 70S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS COULD BE COOLER IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FASTER AND/OR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OCCUR. ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 60S. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR WED NT/THU AM...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THU NT/FRI AM. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPOU...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT ALB THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. CONFIDENCE WAS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE AT THE OTHER TAFS ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE VSBY AND CIGS AT ALL SO WENT WITH VCSH (AS WELL AS KALB). AT KALB WE DID INCLUDE SCT005 THROUGH THE MORNING. AT KPOU...HIGH END MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...THEN SHOULD LIFT ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR LATER SAT NT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT A HIGHER VFR LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK REDEVELOPS. IF THE HIGHER BASED CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR FOG WOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. AT THIS TIME...HAVE JUST HINTED AT MVFR VSBYS AFTER 08Z/SUN FOR KGFL AND KPSF DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE ROUGHLY IN THE 12Z-16Z/SAT TIME PERIOD...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY HEAVIER PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON AREA STREAM AND RIVERS. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT DRY AND INCREASING WARM WEATHER TO AFFECT THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUILDS IN. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...HWJIV/KL FIRE WEATHER...GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM

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