Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281052 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 640 AM EDT...DESPITE WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATED...THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS STAYED IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. NO DOUBT THIS IS PARTIALLY TIED INTO MHC. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT ANY UPPER AIR LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE. THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER AIR LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL DEVELOP SOME SORT OF TROWAL...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...MHC AND BROAD ASCENT FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOW SHOULD FALL LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WHEN IT FALLS LIGHTLY DUE TO 50 DEGREE SUN ANGLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE SNOW PICKS UP ALL BETS ARE OFF AND IT WILL STICK ON EVERY SURFACE. WE STILL ARE GOING WITH A 1-4 INCH SNOW RANGE...GENERALLY LOWER IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...IF MHC CAN REALLY INTENSIFY WE COULD EASILY SEE THESE AMOUNTS RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO ADVISORIES AS MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 INCHES BUT WE WILL MONITOR. THIS NUISANCE SNOW MIGHT PERSIST NOT ONLY ALL DAY...BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISE POPS TO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL (80 POPS) FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS (DUE TO MHC) KEEPING LIKELY POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DROPPING THEM TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS WE APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDERS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR REGION AS THE 06Z NAM. A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING DURING THE MORNING...MERGING WITH BAND ALREADY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. WE EXPECT THE SHIELD TO END UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST BUT AGAIN ANY BANDING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE CHILL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE. BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE. SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES). THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL. TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV

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