Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 251146 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT- NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF. H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY 1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND ERN CATSKILLS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY. MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM. MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH. WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS. DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/SND FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.