Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 232016 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 416 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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It will turn cooler and less humid tonight and Sunday, with high pressure building in. Very warm temperatures, increasing humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Increasing coverage of thunderstorms, some borderline severe, from the western Mohawk Valley through parts of the southern Adirondacks into the Lake George area. They may graze parts of the central Mohawk Valley...northern Capital District and points east to the northern Berkshires. More organized convection associated with upper energy in northern NY and VT...building south...and some of this complex could graze parts of Warren and Washington Counties, possible parts of the southern Green Mountains later. Keeping the gusty winds and small hail indicated in the forecast through this evening for all areas. Expecting storms to pulse near severe levels every so often so stay tuned for any warnings. The question is whether the convection well to the north will maintain its strength as it heads south and east. Dry air aloft may be capping some of the convection as well as slightly less instability due to slightly lower surface dew points. Our region will be in a left exit region of an upper level cyclonically curved upper jet segment late this afternoon and early this evening. So, will see if increased upper divergence maintains/strengthens the storms as they track south and east. Once the storms exit this evening, clearing and some low level drying. Boundary layer winds do not really diminish much and even though guidance suggests winds diminishing to near calm...some light winds from time to time may prevent temperatures from cooling as much as they could. Lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low level ridging tracks through our region Sunday with lots of sun and light winds. The strong sunshine should help temperatures to reach the 80s to near 90. The next upper energy and associated cold front currently in the upper Mississippi Valley and approaching the Western Great Lakes, will affect our region Monday and Monday night. Guidance indicates lots of convective debris and mid/high cloud cover early Monday with weakening convection reaching the western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks around daybreak Monday. However, west to west southwest boundary layer flow, which is downslope, and some flat upper ridging may suggest less convection and convective debris through Monday morning. Coverage of cloud cover and timing of the advance of convection will determine how much we warm Monday. Boundary layer temperatures are quite warm and again, winds from the west southwest suggest downslope and perhaps less cloud cover through Monday morning. So, temperatures should warm well into the 80s to lower 90s Monday...a little cooler in the western Mohawk valley and southern Adirondacks, where convection should arrive soonest. Coverage with the downslope boundary layer flow and relatively weak low level forcing should be scattered Monday afternoon and evening. There is a chance once again for severe weather with the forecasted instability but very similar instability as many severe weather threats we have had so far this summer. The better low level forcing may be toward daybreak Tuesday when the thermal gradient on the leading edge of the cooling and drying tracks through. So, lingering showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Dryer weather working into the region Tuesday with just minor cooling behind the cold front. Highs Tuesday in the 80s to near 90...some upper 70s northern areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper level pattern should be mainly zonal during much of the long term portion of the forecast, with several embedded disturbances translating east within this flow. One of the stronger disturbances is expected to move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region sometime between late Thursday and Saturday. There remains uncertainty regarding its timing, with the 12Z/23 ECMWF slightly slower, and the 12Z/23 GFS and GEFS mean slightly faster. At this time, it appears that above normal temperatures and fair weather will continue through Wednesday night, with an increasing chance for showers/thunderstorms for Thursday-Saturday. Most models seem to be highlighting Friday as the best chance for more widespread showers/thunderstorms, therefore will indicate slightly higher pops on Friday. If this wave passes slowly enough and farther north, enough deep moisture may be entrained into the region to produce locally heavy yet beneficial rainfall. Otherwise, temperatures should remain above normal through the period, although trending closer to normal by Friday-Saturday due to clouds and possible showers. Humidity levels will likely increase for Thursday-Saturday. Expect daytime high temperatures to reach the 85-90 in valleys and lower 80s across higher elevations Wednesday and Thursday, with mainly lower/mid 80s in valleys and 70s across higher elevations for Friday-Saturday. Overnight lows will mainly be in the mid/upper 60s in valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s across higher elevations, coolest across the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and southern VT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across a portion of the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region as yet another short wave trough approaches and moves across the region. Have indicate threat for convection in KGFL and KALB TAFs with a TEMPO group for KGFL and VCSH for KALB as the better chances for storms will at KGFL. Further south, no mention of convection at this time. Outside any convection VFR conditions are expected through the evening with MVFR fog developing overnight (especially where precipitation does occur). Westerly winds will remain with gusts in the teens to lower 20s. Winds will shift more to the northwest late this afternoon. Winds will weaken in the evening becoming light and variable to calm for the overnight. Outlook... Sunday to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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It will turn cooler and less humid tonight and Sunday, with high pressure building in. Very warm temperatures, increasing humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.
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Night time RH values tonight and Sunday night will be between 80 and 100 percent. Minimum daytime RH values will be 30 to 40 percent Monday and 40 to 60 percent Monday. Northwest winds tonight will decreasing to less than 15 mph. Winds on Sunday will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph, then shift to south and southwest at less than 15 mph Sunday night and around 15 mph Monday. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the southern Adirondacks to the Capital District and southern VT through this evening with brief local downpours. Basin-average rainfall will be light due to limited coverage. Dry weather is expected tonight through Sunday, although another cold front will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds back into the region. Flows continue to be below normal for mid to late July at many locations in the Hydro Service Area, especially our western New England counties. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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