Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 031040 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS. SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STILL TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...EVEN WITH SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY... EXCEPT SOME AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN COULD BE PARTLY SUNNY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR ISOLATED SHOWER IN HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT QUITE ISOLATED AND NOT MEASURABLE...SO NOT CARRYING ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS MONDAY...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME MID 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 80 NORTHERN AREAS. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD AID IN DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING...AGAIN SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S MANY AREAS MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE RATHER BALMY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE DISPLACED FROM ANY UPPER DYNAMICS...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LOOKS TO BE WEAK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. BECAUSE OF THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING...KEEPING JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING MORE COVERAGE THAN JUST SCATTERED. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. WORDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AND ADDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE CONFINED TO WHATEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF SUN TUESDAY. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE THERMAL GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS AND SOME PERIODS OF SUN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO WITH THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL AND THE GRADUAL COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S MOST AREAS...SOME UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO THAT THERE ARE NO ISSUES WITH FROST OR FREEZES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 NORTHERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING...SO OVERNIGHT MINS MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRST MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY THEN IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME. SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...INCREASING TO CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT POTENTIALLY GETS CLOSER. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY AS WELL...AS MODELS INDICATING INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT END UP BREAKING DOWN AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS TIME...DRY WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CONUS. SLOWLY ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN FEW-SCT CU IN VFR RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 5-7 KTS...EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TODAY AND MONDAY... WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON... DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL. IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN A WEEK SINCE OUR REGION HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NO LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 DAYS. RH VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT 1O TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT TO 15 MPH OR LESS. COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER USERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH OUR REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING THURSDAY. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO LOWER FURTHER...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS VEGETATION IS BEGINNING TO BLOOM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT COULD SEE LOCALLY UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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