Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 101735 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES... AS OF 1232 PM EST...MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, AS WELL AS ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ADDITIONAL 1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THRU 23Z). HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS... FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO -15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN. BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER AT KGFL THIS AFTN...AND WITH INVERVALS OF CIGS 2-3KFT AT PSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW...WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24KTS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON). && .HYDROLOGY... TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032- 033-038. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/11 NEAR TERM...IRL/11/WFO BTV SHORT TERM...KL/11 LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...WFO BTV HYDROLOGY...KL/11

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