Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 220925 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 425 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW CLOUDS SEEN ERODING VERY SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SE U.S. SO...ANY AREAS THAT SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP...SHOULD SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR LITTLE TO NO SUN AGAIN TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 30S. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW VERY GRADUALLY INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFFECTS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING BECOME LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TRICKY...AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER CAN INFLUENCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES... WHICH COULD RISE SLOWLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS. SO...ANY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD WET BULB JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEN...AGAIN SOME AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF NW CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SE CANADA SHOULD KEEP DRAINING SOME ANCHORING OF THE COLDER AIR IN AT LEAST AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN TOWARD DAYBREAK... SOME AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHAT AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN...NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE ONSET OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE WELL AFTER DARK...AND COULD AFFECT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...A MORE FOCUSED ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY...ONCE AREAS CAN BE DETERMINED THAT WILL HAVE FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OR BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL ANY HEADLINES ARE ISSUED. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE..THOUGH THAT SOME PORTION OF EASTERN NY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW CT WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS AND ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE A TRACE...BUT GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY TO CHANGE ANY MIX TO JUST A COLD RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY EVENING BUT STAY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH MORE PERIODS OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER WITH STILL MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION...BUT THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...DEEPENING INTO A NEAR 970 MB CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS THE REST OF CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EARLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND COLD ADVECTION SETTING UP...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE 50-60 KTS CORE OF WINDS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION DUE TO FRICTION...BUT A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THIS FAR OUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. OTHER THAN A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS COOLING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MILDER AIR QUICKLY RETURNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...JUST A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BUILDS FOR SUNDAY...AS THERE ARE VASTLY DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER /GFS/ OR A POSSIBLE FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW /ECMWF/ TO THE REGION. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 PERIOD. A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE TO CONTINUE AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED -SHSN FOR KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN MENTIONED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH THE -SHSN AT KPOU. KGFL/KALB WILL LIKELY HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR OR VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...OVC CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR EITHER -RA/SN/PL/FZRA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE NORTHEAST-EAST UP TO 5 KTS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV HYDROLOGY...NAS

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