Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 291420 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... It will be another day of hot and humid weather today. The high pressure system which has been in place across the region will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lots of sun this morning...except for some low clouds along and east of the southern Green mountains. Those clouds in southern VT are expected to slowly erode through the rest of the morning and into early afternoon. Convective clouds are epxected to form once we get into the mid to upper 80s...closer to the convective temperature. Some thunderstorms have already formed in central NY...but quite isolated and mesoscale models such as the HRRR suggest convection forms right over our region midday into early afternoon. Area 12Z soundings show CAPEs potentially reaching around 1000-1500 j/kg but shear quite weak and relatively warm aloft...so any thunderstorms should stay below severe limits...but as usual...initial thunderstorms could pulse up quickly and initial downdrafts could produce some very gusty winds and could allow for very small hail to reach the ground and will keep an eye on radar for that. Locally heavy rain will be more typical of the convection. So...some minor adjustments to the forecast through this afternoon based on current data and trends and some HRRR output. A few more details through tonight are in the previous AFD which is below... Today and tonight look to be the most active periods of the weekend. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southwest into the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont as a cold front pushes east from the central Great Lakes late in the day and into western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late tonight. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms going into tonight. Have added enhanced wording for heavy rainfall as PWATS rise to 1.5 to 2 inches late today and tonight as tropical and Atlantic moisture are being drawn northward into our region. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows tonight in the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to 500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry weather and more seasonable conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds into the northeast from the Tennessee and Ohio valley regions. Expect highs on Tuesday to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with the lows Tuesday night to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tranquil conditions for the start of the long term portion of the forecast, Wednesday-Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure extends across the region from eastern Canada. This ridge will eventually slide off the New England coast later Thursday, as an upper level trough and attendant cold/occluded front approaches from the Great Lakes region for Thursday night-Friday. This front may slow down and potentially stall just south and east of the region by Saturday. So, expect dry conditions for Wednesday into Thursday, with mainly sunny/clear skies. Temperatures should be slightly above seasonal levels, with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s, and overnight low temperatures mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Clouds should increase late Thursday, and more so for Thursday night into Friday. As the front moves across Friday and Friday night, expect some showers or a period of rain. Chance POPS are indicated at this time range, since there is some uncertainty as to how widespread the areal extent of showers or rain will be. Have kept chance POPS into Saturday for most of the region outside of the western Adirondacks, as the front possibly slows its east/southeast progress, and potentially stalls. With the expectation for clouds and some showers, have indicated cooler high temperatures for Friday-Saturday, with mid 60s to lower 70s, warmest in valley locations. Overnight low temperatures should mainly be in the 50s, although may not fall much below 50 in some portions of the immediate Hudson River valley. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any areas of BR/FG and associated MVFR/IFR conditions at KPSF/KGFL should become VFR between 12Z-13Z/Sunday. As an upper level trough begins to approach, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop by this afternoon, mainly for KALB/KPSF/KGFL. This could cause brief reductions in flying conditions, otherwise it looks to remain VFR with sct-bkn clouds at 5-10 kft. For tonight, areas of MVFR visibilities will be possible at TAF sites which receive afternoon showers. Showers should taper off early this evening, before additional showers develop from south to north after 07Z/Monday, as moisture from the south interacts with the approach of a cold front from the west. Areas of MVFR to IFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible as low clouds and showers develop, with the best chance of IFR conditions at KPSF and KPOU. Light/variable winds will become south and increase to 5 to 10 kts by this afternoon, and could gust into the 15-20 KT range, especially at KALB. South to southeast winds should decrease to less than 10 KT after sunset. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... It will be another day of hot and humid weather today. The high pressure system which has been in place across the region will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 45 to 60 percent this afternoon...recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and drop to 55 to 75 percent on Monday. Winds are expected to be south at 5 to 10 mph today...light and variable tonight...and southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... The high pressure system which has been in place across the region will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy downpours are expected with some storms. Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas. Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures. Albany NY... May 29th...93 degrees 1931 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY... May 29th...88 degrees 2012 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY... May 29th...96 degrees 1969 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/11 NEAR TERM...11/NAS SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Frugis/KL FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...IAA/11 CLIMATE...

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