Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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796 FXUS61 KALY 231055 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 655 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be warmer than recent days with sunshine and light winds as high pressure continues to build in. The dry weather will last into Monday night then chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east coast. A widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sunshine returns today along with warmer temperatures. Expecting highs in the 60s with some 50s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains into the Berkshires. Winds will be light as high pressure continues to build in. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is expected to persist into Monday night despite a cold front moving the region from the north tonight. There will be very limited moisture associated with the boundary. In addition, will not have upper level support as short wave energy rotating about a low over Hudson Bay Canada will remain well to our north with a low cut off from the mean flow moving across the southeastern United States. Clouds associated with the front are expected to occur behind the boundary. Sunday night will feature mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s along with light and variable winds. The flow aloft will be zonal so the front is expected to stall across the region Monday while higher pressure tries to build in. Temperatures Monday will be similar to Sunday for much of the area with the exception of cooler readings across the far northern portion of the forecast area to the north of the stalling boundary. In the meantime, a surface low is expected to develop along the southeastern coast in response to the upper low moving toward the coast. The system becomes stacked then heads gradually up northward up the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night as a longwave trough develops over the central CONUS. Ridging to the north in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will slow its northward progress and delay the spread of the rainfall into local area. Chances for rain should increase from south to north late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low level winds increase ahead of the system and moisture is transported in off the Atlantic. A widespread rainfall is expected across most of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. At this time, QPF amounts are anticipated to range from about a quarter of an inch to around three-quarters of an half across the forecast area from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Active Pacific jet will carve out a deep time-mean longwave trough over the western CONUS. Downstream, deamplifying waves emanating from this trough will battle a building ridge centered across the Southeastern US. Model consensus favors positive upper height anomalies over the eastern third of the US, so above-normal temperatures are favored during the long-term period. On Wednesday, model consensus depicts a compact cutoff low moving northeastward a little ways off the coast. Timing of this wave favors midlevel moisture inflow diminishing as the day wears on, but still have chance PoPs - highest over western New England. Then, attention turns to a surface low tracking north-northeast through the Great Lakes as the longwave trough attempts to expand eastward. Model consensus has slowed down the timing of the front with this system, keeping us in the warm sector and delaying shower/storm chances until the nighttime. ECMWF stalls the front out into Friday over our region, so have kept low chance PoPs in place for this scenario. For the weekend, models try to expand the strong anticyclone centered over the Southeastern US northward, while a deep upper low sets up over the Intermountain West. Moisture return in between these systems looks to result in a large west-east band of precip along a warm front. The position of this front looks to be the key for precipitation chances, as the eastward extend of it will be nearby, but encountering surface and upper ridging over the Northeast. For now, kept the weekend dry, reflecting latest model consensus. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clear skies expected throughout the TAF period under high pressure. Some lower visibility possible at KGFL toward tomorrow morning in shallow fog, but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs at this point. Light and variable winds this morning, becoming south to west- southwest this afternoon at 8 kt or less. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity values this afternoon and Monday afternoon... Dry weather today into Monday night as high pressure dominates. Chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east coast. A widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night which may linger into Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s this afternoon with a recovery to 80 to 95 percent tonight. Minimums Monday afternoon are expected to be in mainly the 30s. Winds will be light at less 10 mph today, tonight and Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather today into Monday night as high pressure dominates. Chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east coast. A widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night which may linger into Wednesday. At this time, QPF amounts are anticipated to range from about a quarter of an inch to around three-quarters of an half across the forecast area from northwest to southeast. A brief break in the wet weather is expected before cold front sweeps through Thursday night bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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