Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 232021 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 421 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid weather will continue into tonight, along with periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Saturday will see a drying trend behind a cold frontal passage. Seasonable temperatures return on Sunday, with perhaps a few passing showers or a thunderstorm over mainly northern portions of the forecast area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 415 PM EDT, several clusters of showers, along with a couple of embedded thunderstorms, continue to drift across mainly northern portions of the region, especially from the Saratoga region north into the Lake George vicinity. This appears to be where the best forcing mechanism has been this afternoon, which has mainly been broad low level convergence. More isolated activity was occurring farther south and east. We expect mainly isolated/scattered activity to continue through sunset, mainly across northern and central areas. Thunder will probably remain limited during this time due to limited instability and weak forcing, with a cap holding in place around or just above H500. However, with warm/efficient rain processes at work, showers will easily be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Later tonight, overall forcing will increase, as a cold front approaches from the west, and an upper level jet across the Great Lakes begins to shift farther S/E, placing the right entrance region a bit closer to our region. In addition, a powerful shortwave, currently noted on WV satellite imagery across Iowa, continues to move east. The combination of increased forcing, along with plenty of deep moisture and additional forcing from the remnants of Cindy should allow showers and embedded thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage after midnight. Some Hi-Res models suggest a band of training heavy rain elements may occur, especially just S/E of the Capital Region. Trends will need to be watched closely tonight in case a short-fused Flash Flood Watch needs to be issued. At the very least, can not rule out isolated flash flooding, and certainly areas of urban/poor drainage flooding. It will remain warm and humid, with lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday, the aforementioned strong shortwave will be crossing through the region during the morning hours. Rain and/or showers will likely persist well into the mid morning hours from the Albany/Saratoga/Lake George region and points south and east. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, especially from the mid Hudson Valley northeast into NW CT and possibly the southern Berkshires. The rain should finally moves S/E of the region by early afternoon, with clearing expected. However, another upper level impulse could trigger isolated showers to develop later in the afternoon, especially across the eastern Catskills. It will become quite breezy by Saturday afternoon, with wind gusts possibly reaching 25-30 mph. Afternoon highs should reach the mid 70s to around 80, except 60s to lower 70s across some higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, with some lower/mid 80s possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley where afternoon sunshine and a downsloping flow may enhance warming. Saturday night, generally clear to partly cloudy and cooler, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance is expected to approach in the afternoon. It appears that the best forcing and associated shallow instability will be mainly across northern areas, north of I-90. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by afternoon in these areas. With strong winds anomalously cold air aloft, some gusty winds and small hail could occur in any deeper convective elements. Highs should mainly reach 75-80 in valley areas, with 60s to lower 70s across higher terrain. Sunday night, any evening isolated/scattered convection should decrease in the evening hours, although could persist across the southern Adirondacks well into the night which will be in closer proximity to the main upper level forcing. Otherwise, it should be cool, with lows mainly in the 50s. Monday-Monday night, another fast moving disturbance may trigger isolated to scattered showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening. Again, with fairly strong winds and cold air aloft, some small hail/gusty winds could occur with any deeper convective elements, despite fairly isolated/scattered coverage. Highs should reach the 60s and 70s, with lows mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Coming soon.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front has lifted north of the TAF sites as of early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers, and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, will develop within the warm and moist air mass in place through late afternoon. Outside of any showers/storms, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible under cores of heavier showers/storms. As a cold front approaches from the west tonight, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase. The most widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected to be mainly after 03Z- 05Z/Sat. Showers/thunderstorms should gradually taper off between roughly 06Z-10Z from northwest to southeast, although some showers may linger until 12Z-14Z/Sat at KPSF and KPOU where the front will pass through later. Again, areas of MVFR/IFR will be possible, mainly for VSBYS, in heavier showers/storms. Mainly VFR conditions are expected after any showers taper off Saturday morning. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 8-12 KT this afternoon, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest tonight at 5-10 KT, then shift into the west to northwest at similar speeds between 09Z-13Z/Sat as the cold front moves through. W/NW winds may occasionally gust up to 20-25 KT toward 18Z/Sat. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms through late tonight. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... ...Wind gusts of 25-30 mph possible Saturday afternoon...
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Warm and humid weather will continue into tonight, along with periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Saturday will see a drying trend behind a cold frontal passage. Seasonable temperatures return on Sunday, with perhaps a few passing showers or a thunderstorm over mainly northern portions of the forecast area.
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RH values are expected to rise to 90-100 percent tonight, then fall to 40-50 percent Saturday afternoon. South to southwest winds this evening of 5-15 mph should shift into the west toward daybreak at similar speeds. On Saturday, winds will become west to northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread later tonight as a frontal system gradually moves across the area. It will become more humid, so there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Some urban/poor drainage flooding and isolated flash flooding will be possible. Basin average rainfall forecast to be around a half to three quarters of an inch, but locally higher amounts will occur in thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours may linger into Saturday morning from the Capital Region and points south and east. Mainly dry weather then expected for Saturday afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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KGFL airport observations may still intermittently be missing again as technicians continue to troubleshoot. We will continue to monitor and update this statement as needed.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Thompson NEAR TERM...KL/Thompson SHORT TERM...KL/Thompson LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...IAA/KL FIRE WEATHER...KL/Thompson HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson EQUIPMENT...

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