Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231444 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING 2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...KL/GJM FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV

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