Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 311658 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT. SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN. IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT. TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT. RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

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