Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 162314 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 714 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED WET/DAMP DUE TO CLOUD COVER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR. MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT. AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S. THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH MILDER AS WELL. FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO MID 40S RANGE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15 DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL. WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT... TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS DECREASING TO SCATTERED. THERE SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH DEW POINTS...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FOG TO FORM ON RIVERS AND AROUND WATER...THAT COULD EXPAND TO THE AIRPORTS. TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS TOUGH BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPOU. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 12Z-13Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NEED TO BE SHIFTED. WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO SOUTH TOMORROW AT 6 KT OR LESS. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH... ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874) GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949) POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949... HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA CLIMATE...IAA

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