Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 280234 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THOSE AREA. THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE. AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER DAY BREAK. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU. THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE. THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z- 10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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