Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 210852 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO L60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT AGAIN. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER 60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...GJM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.