Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 240513 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 113 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Another day of fair weather expected Wednesday as high pressure dominates. A widespread rainfall will occur across the area Thursday into Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 110 AM EDT, high clouds are continuing to stream east/northeast across the region, although there have been some thin spots in the clouds across the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region. Temperatures where thin spots in the clouds have developed are already in the mid/upper 40s, while generally holding between 50-55 elsewhere. Expect high clouds to thicken across southern areas through daybreak, and some sprinkles may approach portions of the mid Hudson Valley and at least southern Litchfield County CT around or shortly after daybreak, in association with a wave of low pressure passing off the mid Atlantic coast. Expect lows to drop another 2-4 degrees from current levels from Albany and points south and east where clouds will be most abundant, and probably 5-8 degrees more across northern areas, with lows by daybreak ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Adirondacks, with mainly 45-50 elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The weak coastal low will move away from the region and ridging aloft will strengthen some ahead of the deepening trough/low to our west as drops southward across the central CONUS. As short waves rotate about the low it will become negatively tilted Thursday. The associated surface system will take shape and strengthen over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys then move gradually eastward. Secondary development will occur over DELMARVA region and this low will become the primary as the system becomes vertically stacked under the upper low over the region early Friday morning. Our area will remain on the cool side of the system as it occludes and the warm front remains south of Long Island. A widespread rainfall will occur as the system approaches with around an inch of rainfall expected across local area Thursday into Friday. It will be cool with highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s around 10 degrees below normal. Easterly flow will become fairly strong across the southern Green Mountains, Berkshires, Taconics and into the Litchfield Hills as well as across the western Adirondacks Thursday afternoon into the evening as the system approaches. Wind gusts into the 30s area expected where the flow is enhanced by the terrain.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An unsettled pattern is set to take place for the upcoming holiday weekend presenting a few threats for showers with near to slightly below normal temperatures. The unsettled atmospheric pattern is rather anomalous for this time of year and resembles a pattern more fitting for late fall rather than late spring/early summer. However, all is not lost as we are expecting breaks in the pattern that will allow for pleasant and tranquil weather. After a cut off low impacts the Northeast at the end of the work week, it exits off the New England coast Friday night with just a few leftover isolated showers possible as a secondary shortwave from Canada wraps into it. Models have consistently shown high pressure and ridging building in for Saturday so have growing confidence that we will end up with a pleasant and seasonable day with increased sunshine on Saturday. The only caveat is potentially a few isolated showers in the Adirondacks from a weak front from Canada washing out over our northern CWA. High pressure shifts off shore for Sunday with the ECMWF showing a pronounced shortwave from the Ohio Valley riding along the weak ridging into the mid - Atlantic and bringing shower threats into our region, more so for our southern CWA. The GFS shows a much weaker shortwave that falls apart over us and thus a lower shower threat. Leaning a bit more with the ECMWF on this one since it has been consistently showing this pronounced shortwave for this period the past few days and the synoptic scale longwave trough developing over the northern CONUS supports such a disturbance; thus, left chance POPS throughout the Sunday period. Both models are in agreement with a cold/occluded front from Canada potentially moving into our region thereafter bringing another threat for showers sometimes late Sunday - Monday. Low confidence on timing for this system given it`s in the day 6-7 period. The aforementioned longwave trough keeps the Northeast in the line of fire for additional shortwaves heading into Tuesday so continued the threat for shower.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday evening. The only possible exception may be some patchy ground fog development at between roughly 07Z-10Z/Wed at KGFL/KPSF. Some very light rain or sprinkles may affect KPOU and KPSF between roughly 10Z-16Z/Wed, as a weak low pressure system passes off the mid Atlantic coast. Conditions should remain VFR during this time, however. Light/variable to calm winds through daybreak should trend into the southeast to south at 5-10 KT later Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Winds should become light and variable again Wednesday evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Another day of fair weather expected Wednesday as high pressure dominates. A widespread rainfall will occur across the area Thursday into Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of around an inch are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Another day of fair weather expected Wednesday as high pressure dominates. A widespread rainfall will occur across the area Thursday into Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of around an inch are expected. Fair weather is expected for Saturday, however unsettled weather returns for the latter part of the holiday weekend through at least early next week with additional rainfall. All this may result in within bank rises on area streams and rivers. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The ASOS in Glens Falls at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport still is not transmitting observations. It has been out of service since severe thunderstorms impacted the area Thursday evening, May 18th. Technicians continue to work on restoring communications. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...KL/NAS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA EQUIPMENT...

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