Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 270314 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1014 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 10 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER ONE POISED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES...CLOUDS WIL LIKELY THICKEN ONCE AGAIN...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXPAND A BIT MORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE CO...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMTS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE IN THE DAY. IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE. ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT. HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10 KT. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY. MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING ON TUESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

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