Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 160728 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES. LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD. STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES TONIGHT. RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS. COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...VTK AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...SND

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