Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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148 FXUS61 KALY 251746 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 146 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the forecast. For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90. Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday night although there will be a chance for some showers late at night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area. The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower, will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur. A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow. VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly due to subsidence and strong solar heating. A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow morning. The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow morning. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to 45 percent again on Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of a cold front. The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/11 NEAR TERM...11/NAS SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...BGM/11

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