Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 292006 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 406 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LESS HUMID BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 406 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SAME TIME...A WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS IS QUITE A STRONG STORM FOR LATE JULY...AND HAS A COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG THERMAL AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU FROM THIS AFTN LOOKS TO DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AS BOTH HIGH CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVES INTO THE REGION THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND WILL PREVENT IDEAL SOLAR RADIATION FROM OCCURRING...AND THERE WON/T BE NEARLY AS MUCH CAPE AS THERE COULD BE. STILL...ABOUT 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SO 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 20 TO 30 KTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 5.5 DEGREES C/KM. PWATS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY...ESP GIVEN THE HIGH FZL LEVELS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT OF THIS...WE CAN EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS IN PLACE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE ABOUT RIGHT...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HWO FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. TEMPS WON/T BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL BE HUMID AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MIN TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WON/T BE OVERLY HIGH EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. CANNOT OUT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT WITH SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST 29/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY 500 HPA SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A RATHER SHALLOW TROUGH EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WITH THE AXIS OF THIS NEAR STATIONARY TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE...OUR REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW BRINGING IN A PERSISTENT WARM FLOW INTO THE REGION. MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF WEAK VORTICITY AT 500 HPA WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER IN CANADA. A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MAY PROVIDED MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ANS STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MORE DETAILS OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z/THU. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME FOG/MIST MAY FORM...ESP AT KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/THU AT THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR. AT KGFL...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR IN PATCHY FOG. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z/THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/THU AT KGFL/KALB...AND AFTER 18Z/THU AT KPOU AND KPSF. WILL INDICATE VCSH AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR NOW...AS PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KT AT KALB. ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5- 10 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES POTENTIALLY OVER TWO INCHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

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