Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 020521 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 121 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 121 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER WEST. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO ONLY NEW ENGLAND FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS THE STORM SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES. FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY. UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5 INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48 WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER 18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY. THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW. A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER. COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

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