Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 202054 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 454 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT- THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER WEEKEND. A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA. THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

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