Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 301725 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 125 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MESOSCALE ANALYSES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...BUT NOT VERY UNSTABLE. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...SO BASED ON THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT GET EXTREME. STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO SEE IF ANY OF THE RELATIVELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER RAIN FOR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A BIT OF WEAK BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER RAIN CHANCES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. PREV DISC... AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...IT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST (AROUND 5.5 C/KM). HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP TO ABOUT 1500 SBCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL WHICH MEANS SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. WE WILL INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WIND APPEARS THE BIGGER THREAT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS EVENING...AND WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...COMBINING WITH PWATS WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS SET UP IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD BET TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. NOW IT WILL PROBABLY NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME FRAME. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE MIGHT BE A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ONE WAVE PASSES BY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD FORM BY LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...WESTERN PA AND UP ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST SHOT OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FIRST AREAS TO FEEL THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...WHILE MUGGIER 60S WILL BE COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT HOLD IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S WELL NORTH OF ALBANY...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...STILL WARMER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE WILL LIKELY POP INTO THE 70S. MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTORS...GENERALLY AROUND 70 SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...60 OR LOWER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE MUCH CLOSER FOR THE 1ST DAY OF MAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE. TO THE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH. CHECKING ANOMALIES...THE PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUE TO BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850 SOUTHERLY COMPONENT REACHED THE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE...AND THE 250 WIND (EAST WEST) COMPONENT NEVER STRAYS THAT MUCH FROM NORMAL. THE 03Z SREFS AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR ALBANY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 3.5 INCHES. THE 00Z GEFS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AVERAGING AROUND 3 INCHES WITH MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND 1.3 INCHES. FOR NOW OUR QPF WAS BLEND OF THE GEFS/SREF. MORE ABOUT THE QPF CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WAVE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY CLEARED THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WE CAN STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG AN APPROXIMATE LINE FROM CAPITAL/SARATOGA REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CATSKILLS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL AT LEAST PLACE A VCSH/-SHRA FOR KPSF-KALB-KGFL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN EXTEND IT FOR KPOU FOR THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS /EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL EXPAND. THIS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BE ATTAINED. OVERNIGHT...AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD THAT WILL EVOLVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOST AREAS WILL START OFF WITH HIGH RH VALUES TODAY...IN THE 75-90 PERCENT RANGE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LESS NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY HAPPEN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WHILE IT NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY EVERYONE WILL END UP WITH WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL...MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS ARE REPLACED BY DRIER AND EVENTUALLY A RETURNS TO WARMER WEATHER. && .HYDROLOGY... A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

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