Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 242349 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 649 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE. ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979) GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999) POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979) AS OF 649 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE EVEN HAVE BEEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OLD FORGE. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES (THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH). ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME SECTIONS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN. THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...IAA

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