Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 310624 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE. THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT EARLIER IN THE DAY. UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED. WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED... WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 809 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK... WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT 3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION. THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.