Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KALY 241138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
738 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update out to account for band of precipitation rotating into CWA
from the east. Have upped POPs throught the Capital District.
Bands of rain showers are focused in the Mid Hudson Valley and
Litchfield County. This will be the area that will receive the
lion share of rain showers with this closed low system which was
moving toward the eastern tip of Cape Cod. Poughkeepsie has
reported a tenth of an inch of rainfall, with much lighter amounts
While it will stay mainly cloudy from Albany south and east with
scattered to numerous showers, further north and west, showers will be
much more isolated, but there could be some sunshine,
especially over Northern Herkimer county.
There might be enough instability with colder temperatures aloft for
an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. For now, just placed slight chances for
thunderstorms in the grids for the afternoon.
Temperatures have started out very mild this morning, still around
60 in the Hudson valley south and eastward, 50s where the clouds
remain much thinner north and west of the Capital region.
Due to the clouds and showers, high temperatures today should be
lower than yesterday, mainly 70-75 from the Hudson valley westward
where some of the highest temperatures today could actually be
across valleys in the Adirondacks due to more sunshine anticipated
there. Meanwhile look for highs 65-70 east of the Hudson valley
where there will be a bit more showers and lots of clouds.
A variable wind will turn northerly 5-10 mph later this morning
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Scattered to numerous showers will impact the TAFs today except
KGFL where showers will be more widely scattered.
Have allowed for some MVFR at KPOU...KALB...and KPSF with bands of
showers rotating through. Best chances for MVFR will be KPSF and
KPOU. KPOU reporting IFR visibility right now. Have not forecast
IFR there since believe it will short-lived.
Otherwise mainly VFR flying conditions are expected today.
There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder mainly south and
east of Albany but not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs in
A light and variable wind will become north to northwest
later this morning and afternoon at 5-10 KTs.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.