Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 270558 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 158 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1220 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST EXPECT SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN. THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC) MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH). A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE ADIRONDACK). SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF CONTINUE TO HAVE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR VSBYS AT KGFL...AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. KPOU HAS RISEN TO VFR LEVELS...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING. KPSF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z. THE TREND FOR KALB/KGFL WILL BE FOR HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS BY 12Z. AFTER 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE KPSF. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 20Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA. MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11 SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.