Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 190947 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN. HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE STORM. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND 3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR. THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...IAA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.