Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 180822 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ITS PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED BR/FG CONDITIONS INTO THE BERKSHIRES. EARLIER CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WAS TRACK MAINLY EAST WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LATEST HRRR/HRRRX REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGESTING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF WET WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF ALBANY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VT /MAY TOUCH NORTHERN BERKSHIRES/. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE HIGHER MAGNITUDE WINDS SUGGEST WE TAP INTO H700 LAYER WHERE 30+KTS RESIDES. WHILE WE SHOULD BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...GUIDANCE AND DRY ADIABATIC DECENT OF THOSE PARCELS ALONG WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR DOWNSLOPING WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES AT 70F OR LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. SO A CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE DACKS TO AROUND 40F ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY AND POINT SOUTHWARD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GEN MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT HERE WITH SOME SPREAD TWRD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON QPF AMNTS. SUNDAY BEGINS WITH 500HPA RIDGE AXIS FM DELMARVA TO LK HURON...AND SFC HIGH RIDGING S FM QB. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE...LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. SUN EVNG THE 500HPA RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SFC HIGH. OVERNIGHT EVOLVING UPR GRT PLAINS 500HPA CUT OFF SHIFTS E...SHARPENING THE TROF/RIDGE AMPLITUDE AND SHORTING THE WAVELENGTH AND UVM. SFC CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN THE W OHIO VLY AND LIFTS NE INTO THE S GRTLKS MON. WMFNT TRAILS SE FM MI-VA CAPES...AND LIFTS TWRD RGN SUN NT AS SFC LOW ORGANIZES ON THE COAST. RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCRG LLVL SFC WIND GRAD...INCRG LLVL JETS...AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO RGN. SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUN AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO MON. THE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE GRT PLAINS MOVES LITTLE BY TUES ONLY REACHING LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO...THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OCCLUSION FM OTTAWA VLY TO CSTL LOW OVER S NEW ENG TUE MRNG. ONCE THE OCCLUSION CLEARS THE AREA...DRY SLOT WRAPS ACROSS REGION WITH GENERALLY IMPVG CONDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING..ALL HAVE DONE SO BY 18UTC TUES. AS 500HPA SHORT WVS ARE IN ROTATION AROUND BASE OF CUTOFF TO OUR NW...SCT -SHRA MAY STILL OCCURRING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE OVER FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AFTERWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH 40S TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...BUT IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF OF CANADA AND NE USA. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE 500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF...EACH DRAGGING A SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FCA. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE VRBL CLOUDS...AND TRIGGER SCT TO AT TIMES BKN -SHRA... MAYBE SOME -SHSN AT HIR TRRN...HWVR THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY MODULATED AS STRONG APRIL SUN...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AN MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL. AS ITS OFTEN WITH THESE EVENTS...WHEN FCA IS ON SE QUADRANT OF A MAJOR CUT OFF SYSTEM...THEY TEND TO OVER DO THE DISMAL CONDITIONS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FCST PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S...LOWS IN THE 30S...VRBLE CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. THESE WILL BE DRIVEN...DIURNALLY...WITH PASSING 500HPA SHORT WVS AND BY CDFNTS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR VIS AT KPOU-KPSF WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 1-2 DEGREES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFFECTING KGFL-KPSF. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS...THEN WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE WINDS AND SKIES WILL ALL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA. MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT LATER TODAY... ...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT... EXTENSIVE COORDINATION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS HAVE WARRANTED THE UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...SNOW COVERAGE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPS/ FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. COMPACT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEAST TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF ALBANY AND INTO SOUTHERN VT AND PERHAPS TOUCHING NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THEREAFTER...DEEP MIXING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES YIELDS A COMBINATION OF FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MARGINAL LEVELS FOR FIRE WEATHER...SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COORDINATION WITH OFFICIALS HAVE RESULTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPS/. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ALONG WITH A SLOW RECOVERY OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS YET DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20- 30 PERCENT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT ISOLD -SHRA N TIER MIDDAY TODAY WITH A CFP. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/QPF ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC) INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AROUND AN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT NORTH...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB- SITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...BGM/NAS FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

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