Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 140242 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 942 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 942 PM EST...WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM SRN ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH RECORD COLD FOR MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INCLUDING KGFL WITH 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE BIG MOOSE AND EAGLE BAY IN THE WRN DACKS ARE ALREADY AT 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER. MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED COLDER IN THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO 15 DEGS BELOW ZERO. THIS WOULD SURPASS THE RECORD BY 5 DEGREES FOR VALENTINES DAY AT ALBANY. LOCATIONS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO RANGE. PARTS OF ERN CATSKILLS...SRN VT...AND THE NRN BERKS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO READING RANGE WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OVER THE MTNS. A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD HAS BEEN BROKEN WITH THE 00Z UPPER AIR FLIGHT AT ALBANY THIS EVENING. THE H850 TEMP WAS -30.8 C. THE RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE WAS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY 1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. H850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT 27 TO 36 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 25 BELOW TO 60 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AFTER WHICH TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHWEST TO AROUND 15 ABOVE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO. ON MONDAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEAR DELMARVA BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD REMAINS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WHERE A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. BU LATE MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY FROM THE GEFS ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION FROM SNOW MONDAY NIGHT TO A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND PERHAPS A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH RAIN TO THE S AND E. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE COLDER AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...ALBEIT LOOKING COLDER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...AND ALSO SHOULD HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT SLIPS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR WED- WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WED NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 FARTHER S AND E. THURSDAY-SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS THU NT/FRI AM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 10-15 ACROSS SE AREAS. SOME SUBZERO TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MORE UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX OR EVENTUALLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS FRI NT/SAT AM IN THE 20S. ON SAT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPS BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST...AND A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY S AND E...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 30S TO THE N AND W. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRIGID NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW WITH DIMINISHING...BUT STILL BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF LAPSES OF BKN SKYCOVER IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-18 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT KALB AND KPSF. N TO NW WINDS IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE PM...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 7 KTS OR LESS AT 21Z/SUN. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN. TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14... TEMP YEAR ALB -10 1987 POU -14 1979 GFL -24 2003 PSF -12 1934 FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING... ALB -13 POU -7 GFL -20 PSF -14 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA NEAR TERM...11/WASULA SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL/NAS AVIATION...WASULA HYDROLOGY...11/JPV CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.