Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 230600 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be ending overnight from west to east as a cold front passes through the region. Behind this front, cooler and less humid air will move into the region for Wednesday with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Mainly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1213 AM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire across the region. Surface cold front is now located over the Finger Lakes region of west central New York and it continues to track eastward towards our area. Ahead of the boundary, MRMS imagery continues to show two bands of convection. The band just ahead of the frontal boundary is a weakening and broken band of light rain showers. 3-km HRRR suggest this activity will continue to weaken as it tracks eastward towards our area. Will continue slight chc for showers over the next few hours for far western areas, but this will likely continue to diminish over the next few hours and shouldn`t be much of an issue for us overnight. Meanwhile, the heavier band of showers and embedded thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough is now mainly located over central and eastern New England. Any lingering showers/thunderstorms on the backside of this band across the mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics and western New England should be exiting within the next hour to the east. Until then, locally heavy downpours will be possible with any of this activity, but it should continue to quickly head eastward soon, ending the threat for heavy rainfall in our area. There had been some minor flooding across parts of western New England due to this rainfall, but water should be receding soon. The front should cross the area by late tonight, but any notable cooling or drier air moving into the area probably won`t occur until during the day Wednesday. Skies should start to clear out by late tonight with the passage of the front. With the frontal passage not occurring until very late, it will still feel rather sticky and mild overnight, with lows in the 60s for most locations. Some patches of fog will likely develop late in the overnight, especially in areas that saw heavier rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will work into the region. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wednesday, although cannot totally rule out a lingering rain shower across the Adirondacks or Mohawk Valley for later Wednesday into Wednesday night, as the passing upper level trough picks up some moisture off Lake Ontario and allows for a lake-enhanced shower or two. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some 40s across the higher elevations. Sky cover will generally be partly cloudy. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Extended period of fair weather with slightly below normal temperatures. Canadian high pressure at the surface will build in and shift southward as it expands across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast over the weekend into early next week. An upper level trough will remain over region. Short waves are expected to rotate through the trough on Thursday and Friday. Some afternoon showers possible each day from sun`s heating and cold air/troughiness aloft, mainly over higher terrain. Looking at temperatures around 5 degrees below normal with highs generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s and lows in mid 40s to mid 50s. Cooler readings are expected across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains of Vermont. In addition to the cooler temperatures, we will have low humidity levels with dew points in the 40s and lower/mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Storms have moved off to the east with only a few lingering showers occurring ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front was across central New York early this morning and will sweep across the local area overnight ushering in a drier, cooler airmass and fair weather. The upper level low associated with the cold front will move northeastward across eastern Canada today with short waves rotating about it keeping the region under an upper level trough. Some MVFR conditions may occur early this morning ahead of the cold front with the VFR conditions are expected with its passage and for the remainder of the TAF period; 06Z/Thursday. Cloud cover will decrease. South-southwest winds will shift to the west with passage of the cold front. The westerly winds will become gusty by this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will weaken late in the day into the evening. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Most areas should see a wetting rainfall this afternoon and evening due to the passage of a pre-frontal trough and surface cold frontal boundary. Southerly winds will be 15 to 20 mph today with gusts up to 30 mph, and will switch to the west by tonight at 5 to 15 mph. Behind the front, cooler and less humid conditions will be in place for the rest of the week. RH values look to fall to 45 to 55 percent on Wednesday afternoon with westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross through the area this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and could lead to isolated flash flooding. The locally heavy rainfall may also result in minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Behind this frontal system, mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week. Basin average rainfall on Tuesday will generally be around a half of an inch to an inch, although point totals may be higher. This rainfall will only allow for minor rises on rivers and streams. River and stream levels should quickly recede by Wednesday and then remain steady for the rest of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The KENX radar will likely be down through at least Friday, September 1st for the bull gear replacement. We are waiting for a ROC maintenance team and parts to arrive to assist local technicians with the repairs. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM LONG TERM...SND AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...JVM HYDROLOGY...JVM EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.