Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 022022 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 422 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 422 PM EDT...A HOT AND HUMID EARLY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD HAS ALLOWED SFC DEWPTS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME SPOTTY U60S. THE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS. THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT 5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW. OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE. H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA. FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE. FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME. SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE SHORT TERM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2 STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID 70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH LABOR DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND 13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. OUTLOOK... THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

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