Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 230528 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW 70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS... ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z... MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE... AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/NAS FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

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