Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 271312 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 912 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The occluded front will move across New England this afternoon...as increasing afternoon sunshine will yield above normal temperatures. Fair and mainly dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday. Unsettled weather returns Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley brings scattered showers to eastern New York and New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 900 AM EDT...The showers/rain have ended yet just on the back edge of the clearing some dense fog has quickly developed (also observed here at our forecast office). 12Z sounding reveals the moist low levels with a very dry column aloft. Furthermore, westerly winds increase between 2-3K feet so we expect mixing to occur which should aid in eroding the low stratus/fog through the morning hours. Otherwise, 1km visible imagery shows several breaks in the overcast to a mostly sunny sky just upstream as this trend should translate eastward with the dry slot now moving in... So the subsidence in the wake of the front will allow for clearing skies from west to east in the late morning into the afternoon. The dry slot associated with strong cutoff low pressure system over the western Great Lakes Region and Upper Midwest will move over the region. In the southwest flow aloft...H850 temps will be +8C to +10C over the region. Expect above normal temps for late Sept with lower to mid 70s in the Mohawk...Hudson and CT River Valleys...and mid and upper 60s over the hills and mtns.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Tonight...A quiet night is expected with a weak sfc high moving in over NY and New England in the southwest flow aloft. Light winds and mostly clear/partly cloudy conditions will allow for radiational cooling and some patchy fog formation in the major river valleys. The low-level flow will become east or southeast and this may focus some isolated showers across the higher terrain of western New England during daybreak. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s with a few upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks. Wed-Wed night...The cut-off low centered over the Midwest will dig further south and east. The long-wave trough with the embedded cutoff will be mainly east of MS River Valley. Isolated showers or drizzle is possible south and east of the Hudson River Valley during the day. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will persist further west. It will be cooler than TUE with more clouds than sun with the onshore flow. Highs will be in the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern Greens and northern Berkshires...portions of the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills. A few lower 70s are possible in the mid-Hudson River Valley. Wed night...a short- wave along the eastern flank of the cutoff lifts north-northeast. Some of the moisture associated with this short-wave may get into portions of the forecast area based on the GFS and some of the GEFS...but the latest NAM and EC keep it mainly dry WEd night with the short-wave and over running moisture from a frontal boundary east of the stacked low staying south and west of the forecast area. Slight and low chc pops were used overnight with temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Thu-Thu night...Cutoffs are always challenging to forecast in terms of the timing of rain and the amounts /CSTAR research has shown this over the years/. The guidance is converging on the threat increasing for scattered showers during this time frame and east to southeast h850-700 low-level flow increasing. A front actually sets up over NY and PA with the cutoff still well to the south and west of the region...and high pressure trying to build in from southeast Quebec and Northern New England. The convergence along this front and the onshore fetch of Atlantic moisture will increase the chances for showers and damp conditions. Temps will be a shade cooler during the day...and similar to the previous nights mins in maritime air mass.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A vertically stacked low pressure system will impact the forecast through the period. Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement however uncertainty definitely remains. Guidance indicates the low is expected to be located over the Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley by Friday morning. It is then expected to begin to drift back northward moving over the Great Lakes region over the weekend as it fills and weakens. A northeastward movement across the Northeast is indicated for Monday. Winds will be light with an onshore easterly flow bringing in moisture off the Atlantic. Overall looking at an unsettled, mostly cloudy forecast with chances for showers each day. as for temperatures, near seasonable daytime highs with above normal nighttime readings due to the cloud cover. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers have moved off to our east as the occluded boundary presses across the area. Variable conditions will improve VFR with mostly clear skies for much of the day in the wake of the boundary. Some stratus clouds are possible late tonight moving in from the east as an onshore flow develops bringing in moisture off the Atlantic. Light southerly winds with shift more to the southwest in the wake of the boundary but should remain light. A more westerly flow is expected at KPSF. Winds will diminish tonight becoming light and variable to calm. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers will end this morning as the occluded front moves across New England...as increasing afternoon sunshine will yield above normal temperatures. Fair and mainly dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday. Unsettled weather returns Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley brings scattered showers to eastern New York and New England. The RH values will lower to 40 to 55 percent this afternoon...and have an excellent recovering to 90 to 100 percent tonight. They will lower only to 45 to 65 percent Wednesday afternoon. The winds will shift to the southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph for today...and become light to calm tonight. The winds will vary from the northeast to southeast at 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydro issues are expected the next 5 days ending on Saturday. Total rainfall amounts of one tenth to a half of an inch are expected from the occluded front this morning. A brief spell of dry weather is expected this afternoon into most of Wednesday. There is an isolated threat of showers east of the Hudson River Valley on Wed. Isolated to scattered showers may return Wednesday night into Saturday with a cutoff cyclone. The amount of rainfall is uncertain during the stretch...but totals of a quarter to three quarters of an inch will be possible in some locations depending on the track of the cutoff. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 22nd shows drought conditions have changed very little across the region. The next issuance will be on September 29th. For details visit: www.drought.gov For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula www.weather.gov/albany

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