Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 042101 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM EDT... ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER 50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT. OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST. WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF SITES. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

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