Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281648 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1248 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The holiday weekend is well underway as today will feature a mix of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will be milder, however, there is a slight chance of a shower later this afternoon. The chance for showers and some thunderstorms increase tonight through Monday morning as a strong disturbances crosses the region. Conditions improve a bit later Monday afternoon and evening. Several quick moving systems will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through mid-week with temperatures near normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1245 pm, diurnal high-based cu/stratocu has blossomed and expanded over much of the area. Meanwhile, a thick high cloud deck continues to stream across the forecast area. Prospects for clearing appear limited so have upped sky grids to mostly cloudy for the entire forecast area for the remainder of the day, and tweaked high temps downward a degree or two in some spots. Previous discussion...Mid level deck of clouds remains over most of the southern portion of the area with high level clouds streaming overhead. Have kept this mostly cloudy for the day with mostly cloudy conditions spreading northward late in the day and early this evening. HRRR continues to indicates isolated convection today, have adjusted pops to limited slight chances to mainly the higher terrain for this afternoon. Otherwise tweaked temperatures and dew points. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As seen in the experimental GOES-16 imagery, moisture transport continues to advect northward across the Ohio Valley into the central Great Lakes Region. This moisture entrainment ahead of a short wave racing across the Dakotas and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms upstream this evening. Model consensus suggests this will evolve into a complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms as low level jet magnitudes increase to at or above 40kts overnight along and ahead of this impending complex. Timing and placement points toward our western areas arriving by 06Z Monday then across the heart of the CWA around 12-18Z Monday. We will raise PoPs at or above categorical thresholds per coordination with neighboring forecast offices. Overnight lows will be milder with mainly 50s and highs on Memorial Day rather cool with mainly 60s and upper 50s for the higher terrain. The complex of showers/storms are expected to track east of the region by mid afternoon, however, ample moisture lingers along with mid level jet core arriving for the continued threat for additional convection. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much of the extended period will be dominated by a longwave trough in place over the Northeastern United States, as a slow moving closed off upper level low moves from the upper Great Lakes towards eastern Canada through the week. In the wake of the warm air advection/isentropic lift from Monday, there looks to be a general lull in the precip for Monday night, with just a few lingering rain showers, mainly for northern and eastern areas. Have generally gone with slight to low chc pops for Monday night, although it should remain fairly cloudy thanks to plenty of lingering low level moisture with lows in the 50s. Ahead of the approaching upper level, broad southwest flow will be in place in the low to mid levels on Tuesday. A strong jet streak of around 125 kts at 250 hpa will be approaching the area on Tuesday, afternoon as some upper level energy slides around the base of the upper level trough. 0-6 km bulk shear looks impressive, with around 50+ knots of shear expected over the region. Instability may be limited due to plenty of clouds around, but any breaks of sun may allow for up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Although dewpoints will only be in the 50s, considering the strong upper level forcing nearby, we will need to monitor for the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. SPC currently has the region in a "Marginal" Outlook for severe thunderstorms at this time in their Day 3 Outlook. With a few breaks of sun, highs should reach into the 70s for valley areas. Although the best jet dynamics shift away from the area, some additional rain showers will be possible on both Wednesday and Thursday, mainly during the time of best diurnal heating, as the somewhat cooler temps aloft combine with daytime heating and the cyclonic flow in place to allow for instability-based showers. Temps will generally be in the low to mid 70s for highs on Wednesday, with mainly upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday. Sky cover looks to vary between partly to mostly cloudy. The flow aloft should briefly flatten out on Thursday night into early Friday as the original upper level low weakens, however, another closed off low will rotating out of central Canada through the broad longwave trough towards the Great Lakes for the weekend. While late Thursday night into Friday morning looks mainly dry, some additional showers will return for Friday afternoon into the weekend. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level deck of clouds remains over most of the southern portion of the area impacting KPOU, KPSF and KALB TAF sites with high level clouds streaming overhead. Expecting VFR conditions through this evening. HRRR continues to indicates isolated convection today which should be limited mainly the higher terrain this afternoon; too limited to mention in any TAFs. Chances for showers increase from west to east overnight with MVFR conditions expected to develop. There are some chances for thunderstorms however not great enough to include in any TAFs. Southerly flow develops; around 5-10 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonably mild temps today with RH values mainly bottoming out in the 50s with light to moderate southeasterly winds. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon. An approaching system will bring rainfall to the region tonight into Memorial Day, along with cooler temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely again on Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. && .HYDROLOGY... Isolated showers are possible later today but chances for more widespread rainfall arrives tonight. An approaching system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Memorial Day, with total QPF ranging from 0.25-0.75" expected. Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, with basin average QPF likely remaining less than an additional half inch. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The ASOS at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport in Glens Falls, NY and Pittsfield Airport, MA continue to experience outages with hourly METARS occasionally missing. This will continue until communications are fully restored. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Thompson SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...IAA/Frugis/BGM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Thompson HYDROLOGY...BGM/Thompson EQUIPMENT...

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