Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241946 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 50 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE. MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90 ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS. BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT. A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS EVENING. EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

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