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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 241731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 120 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR CAA NOW TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.

BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER

THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT.  UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.

AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.

BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.

WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.

THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER