Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241806 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 206 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions will arrive this morning and will persist into the upcoming weekend, with a wintry mix of precipitation expected. Initially, the warm front will bring a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain before transitioning over to rain by the mid to late afternoon today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire at 2 PM for the eastern Catskills, Schoharie Valley, Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region, northern and central Taconics, as well as the Berkshires... A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM to 4 PM Today for the southern Adirondack Region, Lake George Northern Saratoga Region and southern Vermont... As of 200 PM EDT, the precipitation is continuing to exit the area allowing for conditions to improve. We did see some large snow flakes transiting to sleet then freezing rain during the late morning hours. But this has come to an end so most locations should see a break in precipitation through the afternoon (except maybe the far northeastern spots). Therefore will be letting the winter weather advisory expire at 2 PM for all of the southern locations. Glen Falls is still reporting UP so plan on letting the northern zones WSW continue until 4 PM. In terms of the forecast, have trended pops back but will likely trend them back further in the next package given recent trends in radar. Seems as if the latest few HRRR runs have had a good handle on the precip. Also updated the hourly temps to better reflect most recent obs. Prev Disc... The strengthening isentropic lift and steadier precip shield across the eastern Great Lakes and western NYS will overspread the region from the west between roughly 8-11 AM this morning. Regional VWP`s indicate a low level jet currently translating NE across central/western NY and PA. As this low level jet impinges on the region, we expect sufficient moistening of the sub cloud layer to initiate precipitation, particularly from around the I-88 and I-90 corridors northward between roughly 8-11 AM this morning. P-type should initially be snow at its leading edge, before a warm nose aloft between H750-850 causes sleet to mix in, and eventually rain/freezing rain. We expect some wet bulb processes to cool the boundary layer in areas where precipitation occurs, so even though temps may briefly rise to or slightly above freezing in some areas prior to precipitation developing, it likely will fall back to freezing or slightly lower for a period, resulting in the potential for freezing rain. The steadiest precipitation and greatest wet bulb processes are expected to remain mainly north of I-90, with a snow/sleet mix changing to freezing rain/sleet later this morning into early afternoon. Warm advection should allow for temps to gradually rise above freezing this afternoon, but it could take until late afternoon across portions of the southern Adirondacks and sheltered valleys of southern VT, and perhaps portions of eastern Berkshire CO. Will have to watch temperatures closely in these areas in case current winter weather advisories need to be extended later in time. Snow/sleet accumulations should generally remain light from I-90 south, generally a coating to less than an inch. To the north, a coating to up to an inch is possible for lower elevations, while 1-2 inches occurs across higher terrain, esp across southern VT and the northern Berkshires. Ice accretion should generally be a trace to less than one tenth of an inch, with the greatest amts across portions of the western Mohawk Valley. Late day highs should reach the mid/upper 30s for northern and eastern areas, with lower 40s farther south across the mid Hudson Valley. For tonight, the best forcing should lift north of the region, but pockets of light rain and drizzle may continue. As winds shift into the north toward daybreak across northern areas, there could be some pockets of freezing rain/drizzle developing, and trends will need to be watched. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A very complex forecast including a wide variety of precipitation types are in the forecast during the short term period. The complexity of the forecast requires speaking in general terms as positioning of frontal boundaries relative to the large ridge of high pressure to the north hold the key to the forecast. Much of the short term forecast period will have precipitation. Saturday through Monday...Much of the precipitation types will be diurnally driven with mainly rain during the daytime hours and mainly freezing rain and sleet across northern areas during the overnight hours into early morning hours as indicated by partial thickness values and BUFKIT model soundings. A frontal boundary is expected to drop southward into the middle Atlantic region on Sunday as a wave of low pressure over the midwest tracks northeast reaching the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning. The best chances for freezing rain appear to be between around midnight and 10 AM both Sunday and Monday. While it is still too early to pinpoint ice accretion there is certainly the possibility of a tenth to a third of an inch of ice accretion totals across the northern half of the forecast area. Fortunately it does not look like temperatures will be below freezing during the afternoons which will allow what freezing rain which accretes to melt in most areas. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 50s with highs on Sunday in the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs on Monday in the upper 30s to around 50. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper teens to mid 30s with lows Sunday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally cool and unsettled conditions are expected through at least Tuesday, as another upper level impulse tracks toward the region from the southern Plains, producing rain and drizzle. Once this system lifts north and east of the region, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the timing of yet another southern stream impulse approaching. Latest 00Z/24 deterministic models and ensembles suggest there could be a break from the clouds and precip Wed into Thu, and will therefore lower pops during this period, but with low confidence. It is possible that a stronger northern stream impulse produces some snow showers across portions of the region Wed. Temps will remain below average, with highs Tue mainly in the lower/mid 40s, if not cooler, with highs Wed-Thu in the mid/upper 40s in valleys and 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 30s Monday night, with 20s and lower 30s for Tue-Wed nights. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Precipitation has moved out of the area early this afternoon, except at GFl where UP is still being reported. Current thinking is that GFL will transition over to plain rain by 20Z and this is the only site that may be affected by additional precipitation this afternoon. So expect mainly VFR/MVFR conditions through the afternoon. For tonight, most of the best forcing will be north of the TAF sites. However, some spotty drizzle may develop. In addition, low CIGS and some fog could develop as well given the moistening boundary layer. Expect areas of MVFR to IFR, with worst conditions expected at KGFL and KPSF. The frontal boundary will drop south through the area tomorrow as high pressure pushes south. As the front moves south, it will bring potential for rain/snow showers to all of the TAF sites. Southerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt will be possible through the afternoon hours, especially at KALB/KPSF. Winds will then reduce to 10 kts or less tonight and tomorrow as high pressure builds south into the area. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...FZRA...SLEET. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA. Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A deep snow pack remains in place across much of eastern New York and western New England. Unsettled conditions will arrive this morning and will persist into the upcoming weekend, with a wintry mix of precipitation expected. Initially, the warm front will bring a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain before transitioning over to rain by the mid to late afternoon today. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a potential for several rounds of precipitation today into the upcoming week, with a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet possible. Temperatures look to be warm enough during the afternoon hours each day that most of the precipitation should fall in the form of rain before changing over to a wintry mix at night. While there is still some uncertainty with precipitation types and amounts, there is the potential for between three quarters of an inch of rain up to an inch and a half today through Sunday night. Latest MMEFS forecast indicates a few locations going into action stage by next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ013>015.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...11/JVM NEAR TERM...KL/JVM SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL/JVM FIRE WEATHER...11/JVM HYDROLOGY...11/JVM

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