Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 210600 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 100 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. This will lead to fair and milder weather on Tuesday as temperatures warm to above normal ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring the chance for additional precipitation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1245 AM EST, have mainly clear skies across area as ridging dominates at the surface and aloft.Some high level cirrus will stream across at times. Warmer air advects in overnight. Temperatures will be fairly steady for the overnight hours. As surface ridge axis shifts eastward and off the coast a southerly flow will develop.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Digging upstream short wave approaches the western Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. This in turn will allow for downstream ridging to commence along with the southwest flow regime. A good deal of November sunshine is in the forecast as just how high temperatures will get and just how much of those wind magnitudes mix down to the surface. A downsloping component should aid with milder temperatures for valley locations as we will shade closer to the warmer side of the guidance envelope. Along with the warmer temperatures, BUFKIT momentum transfer for those higher wind magnitudes suggest we tap into the 20-30KT range during the day. So a relatively mild and breezy day appears to be unfolding for Tuesday for entire region. The aforementioned upstream trough amplifies further with strengthening baroclinicity and frontogenesis is the result Tuesday night. In addition, strengthening upper level jet and diffluence across the southeast CONUS brings about a developing surface wave tracking along or just east of the coastline. While NCEP Model Suite and international guidance differ with this track of this coastal wave, consensus was a bit east to limit its direct impact to the region. But the cold front will impact most of the region overnight with the chance of precipitation increasing from northwest to southeast. As per thermal profiles, seems initially a mainly wet start to the onset of precipitation, then as colder air quickly advects in from the west, a transition to rain/snow to just snow is expected mainly west of the Hudson toward sunrise Wednesday. This front is quite progressive and its timing would exit our eastern zones by mid-morning Wednesday. Then brisk westerly winds within cold advection will be the main story through the remainder of the daylight hours. There might be some minor lake response but profiles suggest subsidence layer is rather quick to lower at this time so minimal to no lake effect impacts expected. Clearing skies and light winds expected toward sunset Wednesday which should last into the nighttime period as yet another ridge axis at all levels tracks across the region. Should be rather chilly with mainly lower half of the 20s expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This will be a period of relatively dry conditions with just one system of any real consequence. Thanksgiving evening meals will begin with partly cloudy and seasonably cool conditions, and temperatures dipping below freezing everywhere well before midnight. A cold front will barely make it into our region, and could produce a period of light snow showers or flurries in the Adirondacks. Low pressure racing eastward across southern Canada will bring most of our region a quick hit of showers on Saturday. Timing will decide if it will be more snow or rain, overall, but since it looks like more of a daytime event, from the Capital Region on south, we can expect any snowy start to quickly mix over to rain. Even most areas in the Adirondacks and Greens will likely see more liquid, and no accumulating snow. The cold front with this system, expected to come through in double- barrel form, will bring us colder than normal air, with high temperatures by Friday ranging from only the lower and mid 20s in the Adirondacks...to the upper 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley. A trof of low pressure stays well north of New York State and weakens early next week as high pressure begins to build in from the deep south. High temperatures will peak on Saturday, with the readings in the mid 30s to upper 40s range. Lows peak at just below freezing Friday night, with similar values Saturday night, but lows will range from only around 10 degrees to the mid 20s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clouds have shifted north of the terminals as upper level heights rise and a warmer airmass advects into the region. This will ensure VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Aside from a few high clouds, mainly clear skies are expected to prevail. Winds tonight will be nearly calm to southerly at around 8 kt or less. Marginal conditions for low-level wind shear, but LLWS was added to the TAF sites into mid-morning except for KALB where southerly flow will be strongest. With diurnal mixing, winds may get a bit gusty Tuesday late morning into the afternoon, with gusts of 20-30 kt possible, strongest at KALB. Winds will diminish Tuesday evening. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light snow and lake effect snow showers will dissipate this evening as a warm front lifts northward tonight. In its wake, looking at fair and milder weather for Tuesday as temperatures warm to above normal ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring the chance for additional precipitation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected this week. Lake effect snows will shift northward to the western and southern Adirondacks and weaken this evening. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers are expected across the remainder of the region with drier conditions overnight. Fair and milder weather for Tuesday with some rain and snow showers expected late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a cold front crosses the region and an area of low pressure passes well south and east of Long Island. QPF amounts are expected to be light with less than a quarter of an inch. Fair weather returns for Thanksgiving with unsettled weather expected this weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JVM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...BGM HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

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