Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 040245 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAINING VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...IRL AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL HYDROLOGY...GJM

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