Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 250150 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 950 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and cool temperatures to the region through Tuesday. Clearing skies and warmer temperatures will arrive for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Thunderstorms in central NY have weakened as they have moved into our cooler more stable airmass. There is a good area of showers tracking into the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills and into the Capital District. Indicating showers likely in those areas through the rest of this evening and keeping scattered showers in most other areas as other new showers could develop later tonight and affect us. No big changes to temperatures and sky cover. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below... Damp, cool weather will persist through tonight. Will include some patchy fog tonight under moist conditions. But with more clouds than clearing expected, anticipate that any fog will not be more than patchy. Given expansive cloud cover temperatures will not drop too much. Lows in the 40s highest elevations to 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface and upper level trough will take its time working across the region Tuesday. Thus the chance for showers continues through Tuesday, with a diminishing trend likely through the afternoon. Instability remains nil tomorrow, so no thunder in the forecast. Respectable high pressure for July - 1024 mb - builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing clearing skies and comfortable humidity. Given degree of clearing Tuesday night, some patchy fog is likely. High temperatures Wednesday will still be a few degrees below normal, but with abundant sunshine it will feel quite a bit warmer than today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches the region Wednesday night. We should be able to keep the rain at bay for Wednesday night, although far northern areas could see a slight chance of showers. Under the influence of southerly flow, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Differences among models show up on Thursday. The ECMWF brings a potent surface low toward the region, while the GFS favors a weak trough crossing the CWA. At this point will maintain chance POPS of SHRA/TSRA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper energy and a cold front tracks through our region Thursday night into Friday with showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday night. Just some lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday as the front and upper energy exits. Highs Friday in the mid 70s to around 80 but around 70 to lower 70s higher terrain. The mean upper trough axis slowly builds east of our region Saturday through Monday with generally dry conditions, high pressure and more sun than clouds. Temperatures are expected to be a little below normal behind the cold front even with the sunshine with the mean flat upper troughing. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80 but cooler in higher terrain. High pressure potentially begins to build east and warm advection begins Monday. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 80s but mid to upper 70s higher terrain. There are some signals in some long range guidance and ensembles that the upper energy that tracks east on Friday could strengthen and cut off from steering flow, which could result in the weekend being cooler, cloudier and a few showers but will have to keep an eye on trends in long range guidance. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Damp easterly flow continues through the TAF period /00Z Wednesday/ with generally MVFR cigs and scattered showers. There could be some IFR conditions toward morning. Depending on how much low level moisture is around tonight, fog will be possible. MVFR ceilings and periods of MVFR visibilities are expected with scattered showers Tuesday morning and afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the E-NE between 5 and 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low pressure gradually moves across the region. Clearing and drier weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday. No fire weather related concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Tonight and Tuesday expect chances of showers with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm confined to the western 1/3rd of the forecast area. Apart from a rogue thunderstorm, precipitation amounts look to be less one quarter inch. Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for rainfall Thursday and Friday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OKeefe NEAR TERM...OKeefe/NAS SHORT TERM...OKeefe LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe HYDROLOGY...OKeefe

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