Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 290450 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1250 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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As an upper level trough departs, dry and comfortable weather is expected tonight. Clouds will increase on Thursday morning, as a warm front approaches from the west. This frontal boundary will be allowing for some showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, for northern parts of the area for late tomorrow into tomorrow night. A warm and humid air mass will be in place for Friday into the weekend, with some additional showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
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As of 1250 AM EDT...High and mid level clouds continue to increase ahead of a warm front approaching from the upper Great Lakes region. Temperatures did drop off quickly tonight though, due to a dry air mass in place. So lowered min temps by a few degress based on observations at many locations already below forecast lows. Temperatures should steady out early this morning as clouds thicken across the region. Any showers look to hold off until around or shortly after sunrise for areas north and west of the Capital District. High pressure was off to our south and east across the middle Atlantic region. The center of the area of high pressure will drift off the eastern seaboard overnight as a warm front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region late tonight. Dry and comfortable weather is expected through later tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Active and Unsettled Weather Expected Through the Weekend... Clouds will rapidly be increasing on Thursday morning, especially across northern areas, as a surface warm front starts to head towards the area from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A strong W-SW low-level jet will be advecting plenty of moisture and warmer temps aloft towards the area. With strong isentropic lift in place, an area of rain showers will be spreading eastward towards northern parts of the area from the upper Great Lakes and Ontario. Some showers will start spreading into the Adirondacks by the mid to late morning hours and they will be increasing in coverage/intensity for the afternoon and evening hours, as the warm front lifts closer to the area and a subtle wave slides through the flat flow at 500 hpa. PWAT values will be increasing throughout the day, with the NAM suggesting values as high as 1.75 inches across the northern parts of the CWA by the early evening hours. With rising freezing levels, warm rain processes will becoming more and more dominant, and the threat for locally heavy rainfall across the western Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Lake George-Glens Falls area will be increasing. Further south (such as for the Capital Region on southward), rainfall looks to be less of an issue, as the better lift will be focused across far northern areas. The main time period for the heaviest rainfall looks to be the mid afternoon through late evening hours. There won`t be much instability initially across the area, but as the warm front starts to work its way across the area, some elevated instability will be in place. A strong stable layer around 900 hpa looks to be in place according to model soundings for Thursday evening into Thursday night, which should help prevent much of the stronger winds aloft from mixing down. Still, cannot rule out a rogue strong storm on Thursday evening into Thursday night, but the main threat looks to be the heavy rainfall for far northern areas. By late Thursday night, the threat for locally heavy rainfall may be diminishing as the best forcing shifts away from the area. All areas could see some showers or t-storms, as our area fully enters into the warm sector. Overnight lows only look to fall into the 60s. On Friday, it will be noticeably warmer and more humid than the past few days, with highs getting into the 80s in many valley areas and dewpoints into the 60s. With plenty of instability in place, some showers and thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage looks somewhat limited due to the fact that there won`t be any strong surface boundaries nearby, but the combination of weak disturbances sliding through 500 hpa flow and lake-breeze boundaries initiating convection over western and central New York could allow for some t-storms to develop. The warm and moist environment should allow for plenty of instability and 0-6 km bulk shear values look to reach around 30 kts, so some isolated strong to severe storms are certainly possible. Activity should start to lower for Fri night, so will lower POPs somewhat, but it will remain rather warm and sticky into Friday night. The better chance for more widespread showers and t-storms look to be on Saturday. Although the surface cold front to our west still won`t be crossing the area just yet, it appears that a pre-frontal surface trough will initiate some convection for Saturday afternoon and evening. With temps well into the 80s and dewpoints near 70, plenty of surface-based instability look to be in place. 0-6 km bulk shear should be around 30-35 kts or so, so the threat for more strong to possibly severe storms looks to be around once again. Otherwise, it will remain partly to mostly cloudy with warm and humid conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term period is expected to start out unsettled as a cold front crosses the region and stalls just to the south as a wave of low pressure moves eastward along the frontal boundary. Showers along with scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressure system and a cold front move across the region. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Sunday night through Wednesday...There is still a great deal of uncertainty during this time frame as it will depend on how far south and east the frontal boundary progresses before a wave of low pressure moves east along it. If we can get some separation between our forecast area and the frontal boundary that would allow high pressure to build across our region. If not then there will be move showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. For now will forecast dry weather for Sunday Night through Monday night and the gradually increase pops Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s to mid 80s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night through Tuesday night will generally be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overall expect temperatures and precipitation to average above normal during the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period ending at 00Z Friday. Mid level clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes region. Some showers may reach KGFL after 18Z/Thu, with the probability of a few showers even at KALB and KPSF by late in the day. The showers may result in MVFR vsbys although cigs are expected to remain VFR. Winds will back into the southwest to south tonight at 5-10 KT. On Thursday, winds will be from the south at 5-10 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... After a relatively dry and breezy on Wednesday, RH values should recover to near 100 percent tonight. RH values will only fall to 40 to 70 percent on Thursday afternoon, with the lowest values across southern areas. Some rain showers are possible for northern areas on Thursday, with the best chance in the late afternoon and evening hours. All locations have the chance to see a shower or t-storm for Thursday night. Winds will become southerly at 5 to 15 mph on Thursday into Thursday night. More showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday with RH values only fall to 50 to 75 percent and south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather is expected tonight, but a warm front will be making its way across the area for tomorrow into tomorrow night. As this front moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall for the western Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Lake George and Glens Falls area for tomorrow afternoon through late tomorrow evening. This rainfall may cause minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday as well, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With a warm and humid air mass in place, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall once again. Some showers or t-storms may be possible on Sunday as well, although the cold front will be coming through. It`s still clear if it will be clearing out enough by Monday or Tuesday. By the end of the weekend, the heaviest rainfall looks to be across northern areas, where basin average amounts look to at least one to two inches of rainfall. However, thunderstorms may allow for locally higher totals in some spots. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/11/JPV SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...KL/11 FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.