Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 220553 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM. AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE. THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA. THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA. THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11 SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

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