Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 211439 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1039 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1038 AM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT TEMPER THE WARMING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE. TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FEATURE. WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND 70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD ACCUMULATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SPECIFICS... A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM. OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER BLOCKY. TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION. WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. DURING THE REST OF TODAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND THICKEN...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 20S... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST. && .HYDROLOGY...
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THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

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