Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 010909 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 409 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS... BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS OF 400 AM EST...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TO START THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER BELOW ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STARTING TO SLOWLY WARM EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PA AND APPROACHING WESTERN NY. WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INITIALLY...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON ONCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A W-SW FLOW AROUND 850 MB...SHADOWING COULD RESULT IN DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD AND IN THE CT VALLEY OF SE VT. THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE. STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID 30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALOFT GETS. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE STILL HAVE A LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY. THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY. MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON. TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN. THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS. A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...11/JPV

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