Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241736 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45. HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION. THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0 NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST. RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV

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