Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 012136 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 436 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY BEFORE SUNRISE THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...COMING DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. THE STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE A VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMBINING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM. THE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS STORM TRACK ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND WHICH SHOULD RESULT SOME SLEET INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING. THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES GUIDANCE REMAIN WELL CLUSTERED WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST. ALSO THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES 80+% CHANCES FOR 8+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE STILL EXPECTED TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSIFY BEFORE SUNRISE AND COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST ISTENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AS THE STRONG 60-70 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET PASSES TO OUR SOUTH WITH 40-50 KNOTS WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EVENING SO KEEPING THE 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER 6 PM. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY EVENING WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF ARCTIC FRONTS IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WED-WED NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ON THE WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE THAT A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PA/NY WITH AN AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS LATE WED PM INTO THE EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WRN/SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE BERKSHIRE NORTH AND WEST...AND U20S TO L30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT...AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST. THU-THU NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME RESIDUAL SCT FLURRIES AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO L20S WITH THE SRN DACKS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. H850 TEMPS TUMBLE CLOSE TO -20C TO -25C OVER THE FCST AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE BITTERLY COLD IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND ZERO TO ALMOST 10 BELOW SOUTH AND EAST WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL YIELD SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN. FRI-FRI NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FINISH TO THE WEEK. SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. AFTER HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...LOWS WILL BE IN THE -5F TO +5F RANGE. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ARCTIC FRONT ROCKETS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE WITH ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED. LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO. SOME WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD AND DRY WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR AWHILE IN THE NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY. LEADING UP TO 00Z MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN AND CEILINGS WILL START TO DROP AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES STARTING AT KPOU AROUND 06Z MONDAY AND PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ONSET OF THIS STORM WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH ICE PELLETS AT TIMES AT KPOU AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT SHOULD PREDOMINATELY REMAIN AS SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN IN THE EVENING. TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CONTINUED COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL JANUARY STANDS AT 40 INCHES WHICH IS 5.9 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TOP 10 GREATEST FEBRUARY SNOWSTORM FOR ALBANY... 23.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 14, 1914 18.2 INCHES...FEBRUARY 22-25, 1893 17.9 INCHES...FEBRUARY 15-16, 1958 17.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25, 1966 16.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 13-14, 2007 16.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 6-8, 1983 15.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 4, 1926 15.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 1, 1898 14.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 19-20, 1946 14.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 13-16, 1950 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...LFM HYDROLOGY...IAA CLIMATE...IAA

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