Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241138 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 738 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Update out to account for band of precipitation rotating into CWA from the east. Have upped POPs throught the Capital District. Bands of rain showers are focused in the Mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. This will be the area that will receive the lion share of rain showers with this closed low system which was moving toward the eastern tip of Cape Cod. Poughkeepsie has reported a tenth of an inch of rainfall, with much lighter amounts further north. While it will stay mainly cloudy from Albany south and east with scattered to numerous showers, further north and west, showers will be much more isolated, but there could be some sunshine, especially over Northern Herkimer county. There might be enough instability with colder temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. For now, just placed slight chances for thunderstorms in the grids for the afternoon. Temperatures have started out very mild this morning, still around 60 in the Hudson valley south and eastward, 50s where the clouds remain much thinner north and west of the Capital region. Due to the clouds and showers, high temperatures today should be lower than yesterday, mainly 70-75 from the Hudson valley westward where some of the highest temperatures today could actually be across valleys in the Adirondacks due to more sunshine anticipated there. Meanwhile look for highs 65-70 east of the Hudson valley where there will be a bit more showers and lots of clouds. A variable wind will turn northerly 5-10 mph later this morning through afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over the higher elevations. By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital region and even northern Catskills. A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during the afternoon. The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight. Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all. Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20 has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to +16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area. Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850 temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped. Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada. The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase. Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000 ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest across the region. Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850 temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Scattered to numerous showers will impact the TAFs today except KGFL where showers will be more widely scattered. Have allowed for some MVFR at KPOU...KALB...and KPSF with bands of showers rotating through. Best chances for MVFR will be KPSF and KPOU. KPOU reporting IFR visibility right now. Have not forecast IFR there since believe it will short-lived. Otherwise mainly VFR flying conditions are expected today. There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder mainly south and east of Albany but not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs in any way. A light and variable wind will become north to northwest later this morning and afternoon at 5-10 KTs. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about 50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills. The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light. Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region but a few could stray further south. A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week. Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our region from the southwest through the end of next week. The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least the next 5 days ending Friday. Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs. There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered thunderstorms would be very localized. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/OKeefe SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...OKeefe/HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

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