Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 281042 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. . WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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