Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251423 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1023 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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With warm temperatures and humid conditions in place, showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With the passage of a cold front tonight, slightly less humid air will move into the region for tomorrow, but temperatures will continue to be rather warm with a partly to mostly sunny sky.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1023 AM EDT...MRMS imagery shows quiet weather currently over eastern New York and western New England. However, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across central New York and headed eastward towards our area. These thunderstorms have been locally strong in intensity over western and central New York. This morning`s 12Z KALY sounding showed little instability in place over the region, thanks to several caps in place aloft. However, the upstream sounding at KBUF shows a more favorable sounding for thunder and the potential for strong to severe storms. With an upper level shortwave headed eastward, our environment will become more unstable and conducive for strong storms by later this afternoon. The latest 3km HRRR suggest that this initial line of showers/t-storms may weaken as it reaches into our area by around midday or early this afternoon. However, another stronger line of convection looks to develop by later this afternoon and into this evening, and it`s expected that by that time, it will more unstable with more favorable mid level lapse rates. There`s still a question to the degree of instability that will be in place, as lingering cloud cover from this initial line of convection that limit the amount of available heating. Still, hi-res model guidance and forecast soundings show enough instability/shear in place (especially for Albany on southward), for storms to be locally strong to severe. SPC has placed southern parts of the CWA back in a Slight Risk for severe storms, with the main threat being damaging winds. It will be another very warm/hot day across the area in the warm sector with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s for much of the region. High temperatures in the lower 90s in the mid Hudson Valley combined with dew points into the lower 70s will result in heat indices of around 100 degrees for a few hours this afternoon so have issued a heat advisory for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess. Much of the rest of the forecast area will experience heat indices in the 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Convection will be winding down and moving off to the east with the pre-frontal trough early in the evening. The cold front will move across the region late in the evening and during the early morning hours. A drier airmass will be ushered in the wake of the boundary, however only slightly cooler. Ridging will build in the lower levels of the atmosphere through the middle of the week, while the flow aloft flatten and becomes zonal. Expecting fair weather with continue above normal temperatures with westerly flow across the area. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 90s with Wednesday a bit warmer than Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be near to slightly above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A low confidence forecast in the long term...as the GFS and Canadian Guidance is much different compared to the ECMWF and superblend of the guidance. The latter guidance package favors wet and unsettled weather with a cold front stalling over eastern NY and western New England with slight or low chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. To stay consistent with the neighboring forecast a superblend of the guidance had to be utilized. Thu-Thu night...An amplifying upper level trough will allow a cold front to approach the region during the day. The front lacks robust moisture convergence and strong upper level support. Only a low chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was used. H850 temps will be in the +15C to +18C range from the Adirondacks southeast into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s were favored in the valley areas...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. The front stalls near the I-90 corridor according the WPC guidance THU night. Lows will be on the mild side with mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mountains. Fri-Fri night..The front becomes stationary over southern NY and southern New England. The GFS/CAN GGEM would have the mid and upper level trough amplify enough for high pressure to build in...and this would be a drier scenario. The EC has showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a sfc wave and the stationary front lifting back slightly north as a warm front. Again...based on the blend of the guidance this was favored with slightly cooler temps with mid 70s to mid 80s for highs. It will remain humid with dewpts in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 50s over the srn Dacks...and srn Greens to upper 60s over the mid Hudson Valley and portions of NW CT. Sat-Sun...More unsettled weather potentially with a series of disturbances moving along the front with a rather flat upper level trough near the Great Lakes Region. Chances of showers will persist with slight to low chances of thunderstorms in the moist environment. Some of the rainfall could help the hydro service area due to the persistent dry wx/drought conditions over the past month or so. Temps are expected to be close to late July normals. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will move east of New England today, as a warm front moves through. A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon and tonight. Mid and high clouds continue to increase across eastern NY and western New England this morning ahead of the warm front. VFR conditions should prevail into the early afternoon. As the warm front moves across eastern NY some isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur in the early pm and VCSH groups were issued. The better chc of thunderstorms will be ahead of the cold front...and PROB30 groups were used with thunderstorms btwn 20Z to 00Z/TUE for KGFL/KPOU...and our thinking was a better chc for KALB/KPSF. Some brief reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. VFR conditions are possible after 00Z/TUE...but there maybe some patchy MVFR/IFR mist around where any showers or thunderstorms occur after 04Z. The winds will be light to calm early this morning and then will become south to southwest at 5-12 KT into the afternoon. Some gusts in the 15-20 KT range will be possible in the afternoon before becoming light after 00Z/TUE. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon... Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair dry weather to the area through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values rise to around 2 inches. Ponding of water on roadways along with some minor urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area is possible. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late in the week through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year through July 24th, what is normal and the most that has occurred in a year. Albany NY: 2016: 9 days Normal: 10 days Most: 32 days in 1955 Note: Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: 2016: 8 days Normal: 6 days Most: 22 days in 1988 Note records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: 2016: 16 days with 10 days in July and another forecast for today Normal: 15 days Most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002 Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 Pittsfield MA: 2016: 1 day Normal: 2 days Most: 7 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 Bennington VT: 2016: 2 days Normal: 3 days Most: 9 days in 2010 Based on data dating back to 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA CLIMATE...

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