Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 130853 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 353 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of our storm, cold and brisk conditions are expected into Thursday. A weak clipper type system may bring some light snow to areas from the Capital District southward late tonight into Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Winter Storm Warning continues for southern Herkimer county for heavy lake effect snow through today. Winter Weather Advisory continues for Fulton, Montgomery, and Schoharie counties for lake effect snow through today. Wind Advisory issued for the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, Greater Capital District, northern and central Taconics and Berkshires. As of 330 AM EST...Regional and local radar returns show very light activity and per the NY Mesonet web cams, flurries at best across the higher terrain. Per coordination, we have made several changes to the going headlines with previous warnings for the Dacks and southern Greens have been dropped. Lake effect snow was redeveloping downwind of Lake Ontario and perhaps a mesolow was developing per radar/velocity signatures just to the east of Oswego. Heart of the upper trough axis was across Upstate NY this early Wednesday morning per the H2O vapor loop. Cold advection was well underway under this trough axis as H850 temperatures drop back toward -20C. This will continue with the LES, however, per mesoscale models, seems this band will impact mainly the western Mohawk Valley and portions of the Schoharie Valley with inland penetration appearing to be further reduced as inversion heights per BUFKIT profiles drops to less than 3K feet. Then we focus on the winds as mixing layer heights suggest we tap into the 40kt range of wind magnitudes as no changes to the current wind headlines. Temperatures today will be chilly with mainly 20s and wind chill values into the single digits with below zero readings into the higher terrain. By late this afternoon, lake effect and any residual upslope will subside as those inversion heights lower further and drier air entrainment. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Another Alberta Clipper system quickly tracks through the Dakotas and along the I80 corridor tonight. Unlike its predecessor, this system is more open and faster which will limit both its moisture content and any light snow/flurries overnight mainly around the I90 corridor and points southward. QG forcing is notable yet specific humidities are quite low hence QPF from the various models are quite light with the slightly higher values into the terrain of the Catskills, Taconics, Litchfield Hills and portions of the Berkshires. Snowfall amounts less than 1 inch expected. Lake effect snow may start to re-develop late Thursday afternoon and into the night, as west-northwest winds align with continued sufficient lake induced instability. Main area of concern could be western Mohawk Valley and into the western Adirondacks and Schoharie Valley. Will continue to monitor the potential. Outside of lake effect, dry and cold conditions will persist. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will remain fairly active as upper level impulses embedded in the northern stream traverse the broad trough situated over the northeast CONUS. There are differences in guidance and ensembles in the timing and track of these embedded impulses. Each upper impulse will enhance lake effect snow bands into the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley and at times areas of scattered snow showers will break off and effect eastern NY and western New England. Timing of the individual impulses is difficult but it looks like we will receive a quick shot of energy and chances for snow Friday night into Saturday as an upper low passes north of the region. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday for a brief reprieve from active weather. The broad upper troughing in our region is expected to slowly flatten as southern stream upper ridging builds north Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to moderate Saturday through Tuesday so that by Monday and Tuesday, temperatures could be a slightly above normal. The next chance for precipitation arrives Sunday night as a southern stream impulse gets wrapped into the broad trough and lifts northeastward into New England. A warm front is expected to move through the region during the day Sunday but temperatures appear cold enough for mainly snow, with perhaps a rain/snow mix in the Mid- Hudson Valley. Snow chances continue into Monday as a cold front and the upper trough shift through the region. Once this system exits, the broad upper trough gets reinvigorated once again Tuesday with another upper impulse digging southward from Canada. This should enhance lake effect snows across the Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gusty west to northwest winds will continue to increase throughout the morning with sustained winds up to 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible throughout the day as well. Chances for snow showers will continue through the early morning, mainly at KGFL/KPSF, but cannot rule out a stray snow shower at KALB. CIGS will generally be VFR but may drop to MVFR at times due to a long fetch of moisture off the Great Lakes well east and upslope into the Berkshires. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Slight Chance of SN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend. Cold weather with periods of snow and snow showers are forecast much of the time. Some moderation of the temperatures is expected later in the weekend. Ice will form and thicken on area lakes and rivers and some river gauges may start to show erroneous readings due to ice by the end of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ038>040-047>054-058-061-063-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ039- 040-047-082. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ038. MA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...NAS/JVM AVIATION...JVM HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.