-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
175
FXUS61 KALY 271020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
620 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will remain on the cooler side; while a few
isolated showers will be possible many areas will see a mostly dry
day. Tomorrow will be warmer with a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening, but
Sunday should be mostly dry. Temperatures trend upwards Sunday into
early next week, with increasing chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms again Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Update...As of 6:20 AM EDT...Isolated to scattered showers
have developed in portions of the eastern Catskills near the
mid- level warm front where there is some enhanced lift. This
front should actually slide back south and east later this
morning before advancing northeastwards again this afternoon.
So, showers should diminish later this morning, but may
redevelop this afternoon, especially across the western Mohawk
Valley and southern ADKs. Otherwise, dew points were adjusted up
a couple degrees to better align with current obs. Overall,
previous forecast remain in good shape with more details
below...

.Previous...Our area remains downstream of an upper ridge, with
surface high pressure sliding from Quebec towards Maine. Low-
level easterly flow is resulting in cool, comfortable
conditions, although clouds are fairly widespread across the
region with the onshore flow resulting in moisture becoming
trapped beneath an inversion as seen on the 00z KALY sounding.
Large-scale subsidence should keep us mostly dry, although a
few showers are possible across the Catskills and possibly I-84
corridor in the Mid Hudson Valley as these areas are closer to
the mid-level warm front. Patchy fog is possible through shortly
after sunrise, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 for
most areas to start the morning.

Today, we remain under the influence of ridging aloft and the
surface high, which will slide towards the Gulf of Maine. The
surface warm front remains south/west of our region with
continued onshore E/SE flow, so it should be another relatively
cool day with highs in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys). Most
of today will be fairly dry, although the mid-level warm front
will be oriented from the western Mohawk Valley southeastwards
towards the Catskills. Weak lift in the vicinity of the front,
as well as low-level SE upslope flow could result in a few
light showers for these areas today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Marginal risk for both severe thunderstorms and for excessive
  rainfall across much of eastern NY and western New England on
  Saturday.

Discussion:
Tonight into tomorrow morning...A surface low out ahead of an
upper shortwave tracks north of the Great Lakes and through
southern Canada, with the surface high sliding further east into
the North Atlantic. This will allow for the mid-level warm front
to lift well north of our region. Over the past 24 hours,
guidance has trended further north/west and stronger with this
surface low. The result is that the threat for training elevated
convection and heavy rain along the mid-level warm front has
also shifted well to the north of our region. With the best
forcing north and west of our region, will just include slight
chance to low-end chance PoPs for most areas tonight. Forecast
sounding do show some elevated instability with showalter values
ranging from 0 to -2, so thunder will be possible with any
showers that develop. Overnight lows will be similar to last
nights, mainly in the 50s to around 60.

Saturday into Saturday night...This looks to be the more active
period of the short-term. Saturday begins with the mid-level
warm front well to our north, and the sfc warm front lifting
northwards across our region. With the sfc low expected to be
stronger and further north, this will allow the sfc warm front
to lift further north and east earlier than previously
expected. While the low-level cooler air may be tough to scour
out for portions of southern VT and the eastern slopes of the
Berkshires, most of the rest of the region will see temperatures
climb into the 70s, with low to mid 80s possible for valley
areas along and south of I-90.

This had led to an increase in the chance for severe weather
ahead of the system`s cold front, which will drop southeastwards
through the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Will note
that with an overall lack of forcing within the warm sector,
much of the day Saturday may end up relatively dry, especially
south and east of the Capital District. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase from northwest to southeast through the
mid-afternoon into the evening. With much of our area now
expected to be in the warm sector, there should be plenty of
instability, with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE per the 00z HREF
mean. This will overlap with 30-35 kt of deep- layer shear,
which should be enough for some more organized convection.
Directional shear isn`t very impressive and hodographs are
fairly straight, so most likely storm mode appears to be for a
line or broken line segments, which fits with what hi-res
guidance is showing. Main threat with any stronger storms is for
damaging winds, as DCAPE values could exceed 750 J/kg for areas
that mix out well during the day. Large hail can`t be ruled out
either, but at this time the lack of directional shear in the
low levels makes the tornado threat look quite low. Accordingly,
SPC has placed most of our region in a marginal risk for severe
weather Saturday.

The other threat with any storms will be for locally heavy
rain, as PWATs remain elevated at 1.7-1.9" and warm cloud depths
of 10-12 kft should favor efficient warm rain processes. Mid-
level flow looks to be around 35-40 kt, so storm motions should
prevent a more widespread hydro threat, although any
training/backbuilding will have to be watched closely,
especially with slow (10-15 kt) Corfidi upshear vectors. The
fact that we have been relatively dry over the pas several days
should also help reduce the hydro threat. WPC has also
outlooked most of our CWA in a marginal risk ERO Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday night...The cold front pushes off
to our south and east, and therefore convection is expected to
diminish within a few hours of sunset. High pressure builds
overhead at the surface Saturday night and SUnday, eventually
sliding east of our region Sunday night. With upper ridging also
building over the region, larege-sclae subsidence should result
in dry weather behind the cold front. While it will be less
humid, Sunday will still be seasonably warm with highs in the
upper 70s (terrain) to mid to upper 80s in the valleys. Saturday
night and Sunday nights will both feature lows in the 50s
(terrain) to 60s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing heat and humidity return early next week. Maximum
feels-like temperatures in the lower to mid 90s expected in lower
elevations Monday.

- Showers and some stronger thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday
associated with a cold front passage.

Discussion:

A warm front is forecast to quickly lift northward across the area
on Mon, ushering in an anomalously warm air mass (850 mb temperature
anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV). With dewpoints rising to
near 70F in valleys, peak feels-like temperatures expected to reach
the lower to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for
some areas. A cold front and associated upper level trough starting
to approach from the Great Lakes will result in showers/T-storms
becoming likely. Based on slightly faster timing in the guidance,
will mention likely POPs late Mon night to early Tue afternoon
across the entire area. With the cold front expected to pass through
earlier, this would limit threat for stronger storms north/west of
Albany, but the threat remains from around Albany south/east. Will
continue to monitor trends since wind shear looks strong, with
instability in question. It will remain warm and humid, but feels-
like temperatures should be slightly cooler than Mon.

As a broad upper level trough becomes established across the Great
Lakes and Northeast Wed into Thu, isolated to widely scattered
showers/T-storms may occur each day especially during the diurnally
favored afternoon to early evening hours and mainly north of I-90
where temperatures aloft will be colder. Surface temperatures look
to be near normal Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mainly mid level clouds in place to start
the period. Cigs could occasionally lower to MVFR levels at
KPOU/KPSF through the early morning hours so have included TEMPO
at these sites. KALB expected to remain VFR. More challenging
forecast at KGFL, where satellite imagery showing the edge of
thicker cloud cover just to the north. Expecting some of this
clearing to make it to the terminal which may result in
occasional brief fog formation. For now will mention prevailing
MVFR vsby with a TEMPO for IFR vsby 08z-10z. Fog forecast at
KGFL is low confidence based on how much clearing can occur. All
sites will improve to VFR after 12z, with mid level clouds
persisting through the rest of the period. As a warm front
starts to approach this evening, will begin mention of PROB30
for scattered showers developing. Winds will be variable less
than 5 kt initially, becoming southeast around 6-11 kt by this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV