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430
FXUS61 KALY 301413
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1013 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and weak cold front will allow for
showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Drier weather will return for Wednesday with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1013 AM EDT...Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
over the last several hours in a corridor that stretches from
the Mohawk Valley through the southeastern Adirondacks, the
Sacandaga and Saratoga areas eastward into southern Vermont.
These storms have been producing heavy downpours, frequent
lightning and some small hail (generally pea to half inch
sized). With the low-levels being very stable, this is mostly
elevated activity, with no gusty winds occurring at the surface.
This activity is occurring to the north of a stalled boundary
that is draped across the Southern Tier, NE PA and into central
NJ. Based on radar trends, most of this is activity is now
starting to shift eastward out of the area and we are
anticipating a several hour period of dry weather for the late
morning into the early afternoon hours. Although skies are
currently fairly cloudy, some breaks of sun should occur,
especially for eastern areas.

The surface boundary will remain situated south of the area and
a weak wave of low pressure will be sliding eastward along it. For
later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, the
leading edge of low level cold advection, boundary layer wind
shift and instability will support an additional line or band
of showers and thunderstorms with small hail and locally heavy
rain. An elevated mixed layer is expected over our region this
afternoon, especially from the eastern Catskills through mid
Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, which again,
suggests some hail and locally heavy rain. Gusty winds are
probably more of an isolated threat due to the low levels
continuing to be fairly stable.

Extensive clouds will limit warming today, with highs mainly in
the 60s, with around 70 to lower 70s potentially in parts of the
Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms linger through tonight with
decreasing coverage through the night. There could be just some
isolated showers early Wednesday morning, but the weak cold
advection, becoming neutral to weak warm advection by Wednesday
evening, and lingering upper energy and moisture will result in
a very slow break up of the clouds through the day Wednesday.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to near 70.

Leading edge of warm advection and then passage of another weak
cold front may support an isolated shower in northern areas to
southern VT Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Front exits
Thursday morning with breezy northwest winds by afternoon and
better clearing for at least some sunshine. Highs Thursday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Remaining dry Thursday night with lows
by early Friday morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Friday with an upper ridge axis over
western NY. On the downstream side of the ridge, high pressure will
be located to our northeast. Subsidence from these features will
keep us dry Friday. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s from the
Hudson Valley westward, but in western New England low-level
east/southeast flow around the surface high will help to keep
temperatures slightly cooler with highs in the 50s (terrain) to 60s
(lower elevations). Friday night remains dry with lows mainly in the
40s.

For the weekend, An surface low becomes vertically stacked in south-
central Canada, and its occluded front slowly tracks towards our
region. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front,
but with the front running into the upper ridge and the best upper
forcing well west of our region, will continue to lean towards a
slower solution. If the slower solution does indeed verify, much of
the day Saturday may be dry, especially east of the Hudson Valley.
Chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder should increase
Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler over the
weekend, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s during the day and
overnight lows in the 40s.

For the beginning of next week, things look to dry out Monday as a
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. With more sun,
temperatures will be warmer, possibly climbing into the 70s again
for our valley areas. Another warm front may approach our region
from the southwest Tuesday, which could bring some additional shower
chances. FOr day 8-14, the CPC is expecting near to slightly above
normal temperatures and above normal precip.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Mainly MVFR conditions this morning,
with PSF seeing IFR cigs. GFL is currently VFR, but expecting a
trend downwards to MVFR cigs by the start of the 12z TAF
period. Showers and thunderstorms currently west of the TAF
sites should impact GFL and possibly ALB through the first
couple hours of the TAF period. Have included tempo groups and
will note that IFR vsbys possible if any heavier showers/storms
move over one of the terminals. Showers and storms should end no
later than 15z.

Once the showers end, mainly dry conditions and VFR vsbys
expected through late this afternoon. Cigs remain MVFR and
likely fuel-alternate this morning, but trend upwards this
afternoon with some VFR especially at ALB/GFL. However, late
this afternoon and evening, another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected. Have continued use of prob30 groups
to highlight this and have added mention of TSRA to POU and PSF
based on latest guidance. Will likely see cigs and vsbys lower
to MVFR with the showers, and IFR vsbys are possible with any
thunderstorms. Showers end by 3-4z tonight. Expecting borderline
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys tonight, especially for areas where the
ground remains wet overnight from the afternoon rainfall.

Winds will increase to 5-10 kt with from the southeast by mid-
morning, continuing through the afternoon. Some gusts of 15-20
kt are expected this afternoon, especially at ALB PSF. Behind
the line of showers and storms this evening, winds generally
remain at 5 kt or less through the rest of the night.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 overnight have produced
a half inch to inch of rain with very localized amounts up to 2
inches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected by later in
the day over the entire area as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west.

The low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of
moisture into the region ahead of the boundary, although
dewpoints and PWATs will not be overly excessive for this time
of year. Still, the frontal boundary should be strong enough to
allow for a fairly widespread areas of showers and
thunderstorms.

Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy
downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low
lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall,
rainfall amounts will generally be under an inch and no flooding
of main stem rivers is expected.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main
HYDROLOGY...NAS