533
FXUS63 KAPX 150502
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
102 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized patchy frost possible tonight and again Wednesday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak flow through the profile will remain in place tonight through
Wednesday. This comes as a result of the Great Lakes being
sandwiched between features: northern stream troughing lifting
further across Quebec tonight, and southern stream troughing working
across the Gulf Coast into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure
will gradually build eastward across Hudson Bay, nosing into the
Great Lakes throughout the period.

Forecast Details:

Localized patchy frost possible tonight -- Cloud-free skies and weak
winds are expected across northern Michigan tonight into Wednesday
morning. Any lingering wildfire smoke will still allow for efficient
cooling in these conditions as it is transparent to outgoing
longwave radiation. While lows in the upper 30s and low 40s are
anticipated for most areas, typical localized cold spots across
interior areas may see temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s --
leading to the potential for patchy frost. Low confidence in
widespread low/mid 30s temperatures for any more substantial
duration late tonight/early Wednesday morning precludes frost
headlines at this time. Otherwise, rain-free weather and sunny skies
will continue across the area on Wednesday, with the potential for
light concentrations of wildfire smoke to linger overhead. Highs in
the upper 60s and low 70s are anticipated for most, with cooler
temperatures in the low to mid 60s near the lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Fairly warm pattern through much of the long term
portion of the forecast. There will be at least a couple of chances
for rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms.

Forecast: Uneventful weather continues into the day Thursday. Shower
and possible thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night and
especially on Friday (likely pops). This will be from moisture
advection via a system currently evident on water vapor imagery
across the northern Rockies. The first half of the weekend looks
mainly rain free (only slight chance pops) with better rain chances
returning Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday.
This would be from a northern stream short wave possibly rotating
through a long wave trough located across southern Canada.
Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal
Thursday and Friday and potentially several degrees above normal
this weekend into early next week. Some extended guidance has highs
soaring well into the 70s and even some 80s Saturday and/or Sunday
(most likely tied to the amount of cloud cover). Perhaps not quite
as warm early next week. One more chilly night (Wednesday) when a
touch of frost is possible in the normal colder low lying spots.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR through the TAF period as high pressure noses in from the
north. Light/variable or calm winds tonight turn northeasterly
during the daytime hours on Wednesday with localized lake
breezes expected most prominately at MBL/TVC early Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG