Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 292309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
709 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Amplified longwave pattern across North America with a deep trough
northeast and strong ridging over the western states.  The Great
Lakes remain firmly under the control of a 1018mb surface high
sliding slowly across the Northern Ohio Valley.  For tonight, no
sensible weather concerns.  Clear skies, light winds and cool
temperatures.  Low temps generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s,
although a few typically colder locations may be down closer to 40.
Cold front over the Western Lakes Thursday morning will begin to
spread some high clouds into Northern Michigan as it approaches.
Gradient will also tighten, with southwest winds becoming a bit
gustier as the morning progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

High impact weather potential: rain/perhaps t-storms late
Thursday into Thu night.

Upper trof will aggressively dig into the northern Great Lakes
Thursday night, and will become negatively tilted as it moves away
from the region Friday. System looks to provide (welcome) rain to
much of northern MI, beginning as soon as Thu afternoon. Cool/breezy
conditions briefly arrive for Friday, with temps steadily moderating
after that.

Thu afternoon and night...cold front will move into eastern upper/nw
lower MI in the afternoon, and will exit by 06z Thu night. A wave
along the front will deepen over northern Lake Huron during the
night. Most of the associated precip will be post-frontal,
associated with strong height falls. This will limit instability and
thus thunder chances. Still, mucapes of 500j/kg will be seen in the
late afternoon and evening hours, dwindling overnight. So mentioning
a chance of thunder is still reasonable. Minimal svr threat given
meager instability.

Categorical pops in order across most of northern MI, with precip
arriving in western parts of Chip/Mack counties late in the
afternoon, expanding se during the evening/early overnight. Showers
will end from w to e overnight.

Max temps 70s to around 80f. Min temps 50s.

Friday into Saturday...Friday will be very much reminiscent of
yesterday, breezy and unseasonably. If anything we`ll be a little
cloudier at the start of the day, before a lingering stratus/
stratocu deck thins and exits to the east. That will do it for
clouds for a while, with essentially clear skies for Fri night/Sat.
Incoming airmass is actually a little cooler than yesterdays (850mb
temps of 5-6c), and with a touch more cloud cover, expect max temps
to also be cooler. Guidance is in line with this idea, so high temps
look to be mainly upper 60s to around 70f Fri.

High pressure will build into the sw lakes Fri night, though with
enough of a pressure gradient here to prevent full decoupling. In
addition, the 850mb thermal trof will move east, and warm advection
will return, even on a nw wind. Well-sheltered locales could
decouple and drop thru the 40s, but most places will see mins closer
to 50f. High pressure remains entrenched across the southern lakes
Saturday, leading to plenty of sunshine. Temps will rebound nicely
into the 70s.


The beginning of next week looks to be on a gradual warming trend as
high pressure continues to dominate the area. The flow at 500mb is
zonal for most of the forecast period before ridging begins to
filter in Thursday. Temperatures will climb into the 80s for the
holiday as 850mb temperatures reach 10-15C. A cold front associated
with a small shortwave will slowly begin to slide into the region
Tuesday, bringing the opportunity for a small chance of showers in
the afternoon and evening hours. Shower chances increase Wednesday
afternoon with the possibility of thunder before another cool down
with the passage of the cold front.



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 657 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

..Showers and deteriorating conditions Thursday night...

VFR for the TAF period. Pretty clear early, with some potential
for increasing cirrus overnight. Looking at some scattered cumulus
tomorrow afternoon before the arrival of thicker mid clouds ahead
of a cold front and it`s expected band of showers and chance of
non-severe storms. Cigs then deteriorate into IFR through
Thursday night behind the passing cold front.

Light winds tonight, with some gustier SW winds at the NW lower
airports Thursday. Winds shifting NW behind the front Thursday


Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Southwest winds begin to ramp late tonight, especially
on northern Lake Michigan, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten
across the region.  It will become breezy on Thursday as a cold
front approaches, with winds/waves possibly approaching SCA
conditions (especially on parts of Northern Lake Michigan). The front
will push through Thursday night with showers and a few rumbles of
thunder possible. Much cooler air and gusty northwest winds are
expected on Friday with additional SCA`s possible.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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