Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 061925
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WAS RIDGED ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WHILE 1000 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER
CHANCES TONIGHT (TIMING TOO).

UPSTREAM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND THE TIMING (AT
NIGHT) IS NOT THE BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING
THAT IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SHOWERS AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (NONE OF WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERE SINCE THEY ARE
ELEVATED AND WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE). GENERALLY
SPEAKING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH (BUT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER). MILD WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY
SATURATES THE INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...WITH PWATS JUST OVER AN INCH AND ABOUT 300-500 J/KG
OF SKINNY CAPE...CAN EXPECT SHORT DURATION LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD END UP WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OVER EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. THIS CLEARING OUT WILL BE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR AND A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COOLER AIR THAN WHAT
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SAW FRIDAY...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER TO BE
EXACT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE
COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT LACKS ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CLASSIC
INVERTED-V SOUNDING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SKIES WILL
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MAY BEGIN WAA PRECIPITATION AT
THE VERY SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS DIURNAL HEATING MIXES DOWN WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25 MPH SATURDAY AND 20 MPH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER EASTERN UPPER
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOW 60S MONDAY...WHILE NORTHERN LOWER
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI MAY
6 2016

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY ACTIVE. NOW THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF SAID ACTIVITY IS A WHOLE
OTHER MATTER. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME MAINLY ON TUESDAY WITH A
SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER ON
PRECIP LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW THAT COMES THROUGH. THE GFS WOULD HAVE THIS
LOW PASSING SLOWLY BY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING POPS GOING LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. WHEREAS THE
EURO HAS THE TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH HAVE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND THE GFS INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE EUROS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PAINTS WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY.
BLENDED SOLUTIONS PRETTY MUCH CARRY AT LEAST CHANCE POP THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WHILE WERE LIKELY TO SEE SOME
STRETCHES OF NO RAIN AT ALL...THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH CLEAR SIGNALS TO
ALTER THAT AT THIS TIME.

SO ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE ACTIVE AND TIMING
PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SOME THUNDER IN THE CWA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACKS...BUT IT`S FAR TOO EARLY TO
CONSIDER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD TO THE FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BACKED
OFF ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (WENT VCTS) AS WELL AS THE LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY WITH NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND BE GUSTY FOR SATURDAY...HENCE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT OVERALL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL/KAB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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