843
FXUS63 KAPX 150727
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized patchy frost possible tonight and again Wednesday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging expected
to cross northern Michgian today, sandwiched between troughing
trekking over the eastern third of NOAM and upstream across the
nation`s midsection. At the surface, high pressure will continue
to nose into the region from the north.

Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern
Michigan today through tonight with just some passing high clouds at
times. Low concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke likely to
linger overhead as well. High temperatures today ranging from the
mid 60s to low 70s are expected for most, with cooler temperatures
near the lakeshores. Another night with decent radiational cooling
expected to lead to lows falling a good 25-30+ degrees below this
afternoon`s highs. Typical localized interior cold spots may see
temperatures dip into the low-mid 30s -- leading to the potential
for some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Upper low over the southern US...with surface reflection centered
over the KY/IL area.  Meanwhile...pesky, slow-moving BCZ that has
kept clouds/showers in place across parts of central/southern MI the
last couple days has finally slipped southward into OH...with cooler
and drier air yet to the northeast...as high pressure begins to
settle in over Hudson Bay. A couple niblets in the upstream flow,
first of which is slipping through northern MN; another over the
central Plains with a meridional warm front stretching from the
Dakotas down into OK with some convective activity. Additional
troughing from Saskatchewan back into UT/WY...with ridging building
along and just off the West Coast. Dry northeasterly flow over the
Great Lakes eroding the moisture attending the MN niblet. Pwats on
our 0z/15 sounding of 0.41in is on the lower end of climo, toward
the 25th percentile for this time of year.

Brief ridging expected Thursday...ahead of shortwave trough
approaching the region. This should bring the next shot of rain to
the area later Thursday into Friday...ahead of more noteworthy
troughing settling into the northwestern US. We may get into a brief
bit of ridging and high pressure for at least the first part of
Saturday...with potential for another system to meander by to our
south. Looks like we may end up a bit toasty Saturday ahead of our
next system, which could bring some shower and storm chances into
the region late Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, it appears overall
conditions may start to improve going into early next week...as
ridging builds over the eastern/central US ahead of the next system
currently progged to approach the region going into the end of the
long term period. Bottom line...expecting things to remain
seasonable-to-warm and periodically unsettled through the bulk of
the long term. Beyond this...waiting to see how the pattern evolves,
with some suggestion that, after a period of largely near to above
normal temps, we may try to turn cooler toward the latter half of
next week and beyond; this is not guaranteed by any means, though it
will be something to keep an eye on as we go forward.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/Thunder Returns Late Thursday into Friday...Still think rain
will be a little slower to return Thursday, given antecedent dry
airmass. However...not impossible that some elevated convection may
try to develop very late Thursday afternoon and particularly into
Thursday night...as some guidance soundings would like to develop a
few hundred joules of elevated instability. Dry slot trying to slip
in could generate some additional instability going into Friday
along a SW-NE oriented boundary, and there is even some indication
some areas may warm enough during the day Friday to generate a few
hundred or so joules of elevated instability that could keep
convective activity going through the afternoon as the front drifts
through. On the thunder side...deep layer shear appears largely
minimal, though it may approach 30kts Thursday night into Friday
ahead of the front. Combined with the elevated instability,
moisture, and the front in the vicinity...a rogue stronger storm may
be possible...though low confidence in this latter idea attm.

Other concern with this is how much rain we end up getting, as QPF
raw output and probabilities seem less aggressive than yesterday
morning. Setup still suggests some decent rainfall is possible from
Thursday night into Friday, particularly along the front where
forcing and moisture should be maximized...though placement of this
potential QPF maxima is a bit up in the air attm (pun not intended,
but I`ll leave it)...which may depend on where any convection
actually does try to fire with the warm front Thursday
afternoon/evening. Still a lot of details to clear up...but think
it`s worth keeping an eye on, particularly noting the front may be
somewhat slow moving as it slips through the area, which could keep
rounds of rain in the same general areas for a longer period of time
until it finally drifts out later Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR through the TAF period as high pressure noses in from the
north. Light/variable or calm winds tonight turn northeasterly
during the daytime hours on Wednesday with localized lake
breezes expected most prominently at MBL/TVC early Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MJG