Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 230512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1212 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will range from 11 feet to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: in the western part of IRVING and in the western part of METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 24/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in the western part of IRVING and in the western part of METEOR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W and 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from 01N28W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 02S39W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between 12W and 23W, and from 04N southward between 41W and 47W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas, to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. The stationary front continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line from 30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico. The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between 96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico from Sunday through Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to 19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.45 in Curacao, and 0.31 in Guadeloupe. The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward between Africa and 35W. A dissipating cold front extends from a 998 mb low pressure center that is near 31N28W, to 25N22W and 17N29W. A shear line continues from 17N29W to 15N40W, 14N50W and 15N61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between the western part of the Canary Islands and 30W. Broken low level clouds and other possible rainshowers are to the NW and N of the line that passes through 32N15W to 23N18W 14N30W 11N50W and 11N60W. Strong surface high pressure that is near Bermuda will weaken and shift southward from Saturday through Monday night. A cold front will push off the SE coast of the U.S. on Monday, and then become stationary along 28N on Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT

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