Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 261753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean tonight through Monday as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions possible during the overnight and early morning hours Monday through Thursday. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N34W to the coast of South America at 02S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N- 08N between 07W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-03N between 26W-40W, and from 01N-05N between 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida at 24N80W to W Cuba at 23N82W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W producing 10-20 kt anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over most of the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over most of the Gulf over the next 24 hours. Morning fog and scattered showers are possible along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 20N81W to 15N86W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough to include over the Cayman Islands. Radar imagery shows isolated showers near Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, upper level ridging is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface trough to move W to the Yucatan Peninsula with showers. Gale-force winds are expected to develop across the south-central Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Water vapor imagery also indicates very dry air/strong subsidence over the entire island. Scattered showers are possible in 24 hours over E Hispaniola within the low level tradewind flow. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is over the west Atlantic from 31N73W to to the N Bahamas at 27N78W to the Straits of Florida at 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A dissipating stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 27N47W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. In the upper levels, the base of a broad trough is over the W Atlantic. A large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 50W. Expect over the next 24 hour for the W Atlantic front to move E with showers. Expect the central Atlantic front to also move E, and dissipate to a surface trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa

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