Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 302351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W FROM OVER HAITI TO OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N28W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N52W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW DOTTING THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 27W- 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS ANCHORED OVER S OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 28N87W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N E OF 93W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE E BAY CAMPECHE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W TO OVER TEXAS. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR 25N SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA THEN W TO AN UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-63W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT N ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N77W ALONG 30N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS FROM VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N TO 31N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N71W TO 25N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N59W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW

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