


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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420 AXNT20 KNHC 031005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, from 16N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 25W and 27W. Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the southern portion of the wave axis. A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 48W and 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues SW to 10N27W, then W to near 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 08N52W and from 08N56W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 11N between 14W and 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is noted over parts of Florida and the NE Gulf, where a surface trough is analyzed. The trough extends 31N84W to 25N85W. High pressure of 1018 mb centered near 26N90W dominates the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate cyclonic flow is noted near the trough axis while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere, except in the SE Gulf where winds and light and variable. For the forecast, a weak cold front will sag into the far NE Gulf today, then stall tonight, and devolve into a surface trough for Fri into Sat. This will create showers and thunderstorms for waters near Florida through the weekend. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The Atlantic ridge, combined with the Colombian low, is leading to a pressure gradient that supports fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds, peaking around 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the E and SW Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are blowing over the NW part of the basin. Dry and stable atmospheric conditions dominate the area, with the only significant convection in the far SW basin, S of 10N, in association with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. The Atlantic forecast area is generally dominated by a large ridge, with a 1033 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores, and a another 1024 mb high pressure situated near 29N39W. The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressures over W Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the waters N of 20N and E of 30W. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are funneling in between the Canary Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this region. Winds are generally moderate to fresh S of 25N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic north of 25N between 30W and 70W is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An upper level low spinning NE of the Leeward Islands is generating and area of showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 23N between 54W and 60W, and a surface trough is forming in this vicinity. A mid and upper level trough is also inducing scattered moderate convection over the NW Bahamas, waters offshore Florida, and remaining waters N of 26N and W of 77W. For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by early this weekend. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of Florida and adjacent waters through the weekend. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and a medium chance through the next 7 days. $$ Konarik