Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 281758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 30.7N 79.0W at 28/1800 UTC or about 130 NM south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 196 NM south-southwest of Cape Fear North Carolina moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-33N between 77W and along the coast of South Carolina. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 25W/26W from 6N-13N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 58W south of 9N to inland over Guyana South America moving west 10- 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean extends along 75W south of 12N to inland over Colombia moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough south of 11N. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 7N16W to east of a tropical wave near 5N20W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 5N27W along 2N34W to South America near 1N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 NM north of the ITCZ between 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough extends from the central CONUS into the Gulf of Mexico across Louisiana to near 28N87W. A complex series of upper lows extends from south Georgia to over the Bahamas to north of Puerto Rico. This is giving the Gulf south of 27N northwest flow aloft. At the surface is a weak ridge that extends from the Florida panhandle to northeast Mexico. A line of scattered showers are within 30/45 nm of 86W north of 27N to inland over Florida and Alabama. The remainder of the Gulf is experiencing fair weather this afternoon. The surface ridge will persist through today with a new high pressure developing along the ridge axis over the northeast Gulf tonight. The new high center will shift southwest to west along 29N on Sunday reaching just south of the Mississippi Delta on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough described in the Gulf of Mexico section gives the caribbean west of 68W northwest flow aloft. An upper ridge extends from over South America east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W giving the Caribbean east of 68W southeast flow aloft. This southeast flow is creating a diffluent environment generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 14N east of 67W to across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. The easterly trade winds coupled with the upper flow are generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 14N-18.5N between 72W-82W including Haiti and Jamaica. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from west of the tropical wave near 11N76W 11N80W then across Cost Rica into the eastern Pacific near 10N84W. Isolated showers are possible south of the monsoon trough. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with fair weather this afternoon. Little change is expected through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are over portions of southwest Haiti with possible isolated showers across the remainder of the island this afternoon. This activity is associated with the easterly trade winds coupled with the upper trough described in the Gulf of Mexico section above. This upper trough and the showers/thunderstorm activity will persist through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern this afternoon is Tropical Depression Two off the southeast CONUS. This system has the potential to becoming a tropical storm later this afternoon. The outer rainbands have already reached the South Carolina coast. The upper trough over the southwest Atlantic is described in the Gulf of Mexico section above. This upper trough is south of the upper ridge that encompasses T.D. Two. This upper ridge extends from a broad upper ridge anchored over South America and extends just east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W to 22N then narrows as it continues along 28N69W to beyond 32N71W. This is producing a large area of diffluence and is generating scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms within 250 nm of a line from 21N67W to 28N77W. A weak surface ridge covers the area north of 28N east of 70W with a 1026 mb high near 35N64W, a 1025 mb high near 29N47W, and a second 1025 mb high near 31N29W. A pair of weak 1022 mb lows are in the east Atlantic centered near 28N26W and 27N37W. These lows are not producing any significant weather. The west Atlantic upper trough will continue to generate shower/thunderstorm activity through Sunday. A surface ridge will rebuild from Bermuda to northeast Florida on Monday. For additional information please visit $$ PAW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.