Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 160545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S GULF S OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL BE DISCONTINUE BY 16/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W- 19W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE E CONUS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND TO 17N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN N THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N87W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC S OF 19N W OF 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0300 UTC NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN WILL RETURN N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW

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