Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 28N80.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N85W TO 28N90W TO 29.5N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE TO THE EAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA. SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE EAST OF 89W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 14N59W 10N60W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W 18N61W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W FROM 10N TO 18N... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N73W 12N73W 14N76W 14N78W 13N80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W...TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 6N30W 5N40W TO 5N49W AND 10N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 9W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 11N FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO FLORIDA...AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...KATP...KGRY... KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS MOMENT. ...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N60W...AND TO 18N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 19N57W 14N59W 10N60W IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N63W 25N64W 22N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 63W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN GENERAL COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.03 IN BERMUDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N77W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N73W 12N73W 14N76W 14N78W 13N80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W FROM 10N TO 18N. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.A.-TO FLORIDA-AND GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA WAS REPORTING RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AT 01/0000 UTC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N40W AND 10N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLAND TO 26N23W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 31N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N42W 26N50W AND 21N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 60W...AND AWAY FROM THE 19N57W 10N60W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT

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