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000
AXNT20 KNHC 110530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N21W 00N26W TO 2N35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N E OF 16W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 16W-
28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 90W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
28N99W. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING AT 11/0300 UTC FROM 29N89W ALONG 27N94W THEN S
ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-28N W
OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N93W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 30 NM NW OF
THE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 22N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
W OF 87W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF WITH A 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N84W AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF TUE
NIGHT DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N/CENTRAL GULF. A
STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED
MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-75W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AND FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 74W-78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY THU AND CROSS
HISPANIOLA FRI INCREASING SHOWERS FROM W TO E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W
ATLC AND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N55W ALONG 29N62W TO 28N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W
ALONG 24N51W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. CENTRAL ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT NE WED THROUGH THU AS STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC
REACHING FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW