Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 110605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 06N36W, curving to 03N43W, and NE Brazil near 01N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward from 18W eastward, and from 02N to 10N between 35W and 50W. A surface trough is along 29W/30W from 07N to 15N. Convective precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsiedence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 300 nm to the north of the line that passes through 26N80W 24N90W 23N98W. A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to the south of the line that passes through 27N82W 25N90W 23N98W. A Texas coastal surface trough is along 96W/97W from 25N to 29N. Low cloud ceilings are being reported from the deep south of Texas to the middle Texas coastal plains. A surface trough is along the Mexico coast, along 24N97W 21N96W 18N93W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 23N south from 90W westward. Surface high pressure passes through parts of south central Texas, into the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KVOA. IFR: none. MVFR: KGUL, KVQT, KGHB, and KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR/MVFR in the deep south of Texas. LIFR/IFR in the middle Texas coastal areas. MVFR from Rockport to Bay City. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain and IFR in Marathon Key. IFR in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to the north of the line that passes through 22N82W 19N88W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow curves into the Caribbean Sea, from Colombia to Honduras. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 10N81W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N between 76W and the coast of Central America. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.26 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SE wind flow is moving across the island. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be about half-way between the southern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and the eastern part of Honduras at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect W-to-NW wind flow during the next 2 days. Broad anticyclonic wind flow across the island will be at its comparatively greatest amount during the middle of the day on Monday the 12th, as the anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to be about 60 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that mostly SE wind flow will be moving across the area, with brief moments of E-to-SE wind flow, until about noon on Monday the 12th. NE wind flow is forecast to move across the island after that time, with a different E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge will push SE wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours, along with a possible inverted trough during the second half of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N46W to 26N60W to 25N71W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N71W, across the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that passes through 32N42W 27N60W 22N79W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the E and SE of the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a is to the east of the cold front/surface trough. The ridge passes through 32N12W, across the Canary Islands, to 25N18W, to 22N42W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT

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