Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 221110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND WILL BE EAST OF AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N...AND 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. THIS LOW PRES IS ANALYZED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA NORTH OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N87.5W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OVER JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E CENTERED JUST N OF BERMUDA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING A POSITION NEAR 32N61W BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N38W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N36. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE GUYANAS ALL THE WAY E-NE TO WESTERN AFRICA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SW AND W WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR

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