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000 AXNT20 KNHC 251053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 65W from 14N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 73W south of 14N to inland over South America moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W along 8N21W to 7N32W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N47W to South America near 6N57W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-10N east of the monsoon trough to the coast of west Africa. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over the southwest Gulf near 22N93W covering the Gulf west of 88W to inland over the southeast CONUS and Mexico including the Yucatan peninsula. A surface trough is over the far west Gulf from 26N97W to 21N96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 22N-28N west of 95W to inland over Mexico and Texas. The diurnal surface trough is over the southwest Gulf from 22N92W to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 22N between 89W-96W to inland over Mexico and the Yucatan. A small cutoff upper low is over the southeast of Gulf/Yucatan Channel near 22N86W with a small upper ridge over the Straits of Florida near 23N82W covering the remainder of the southeast Gulf. A surface trough extends from 24N83W through the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the northwest Caribbean generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 24N to Cuba and through the Yucatan Channel between 80W-86W. Radar indicates isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm along the Florida coast south of 27N. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1019 mb high near 27N86W, then continues to the northeast Texas coast. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear skies this morning. Surface ridge will persist into early next week. The surface trough in the west Gulf will move into Mexico by midday today. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico covers the Caribbean west of 85W. The small upper features over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, Yucatan Channel, and the Straits of Florida is supporting a surface trough that extends from 19N86W through the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean north of 20N west of 81W to Cuba and the Yucatan. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 76W-84W. An upper trough over the west-central Atlantic extends a trough axis across the Dominican Republic/Mona Passage into the Caribbean along 15N72W to Central America near 14N84W covering the remainder of the Caribbean except the southeast Caribbean where an upper ridge covers the area anchored in the west Tropical Atlantic. This upper ridge is advecting moisture across the the far east Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 16N east of 70W to over the Lesser Antilles. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W across Panama/Costa Rica near 9N82W generating scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 12N west of 75W to inland over Colombia to Costa Rica. Tropical waves will move across the south Caribbean and South America into early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are clear across the island this morning. The upper trough over the east Caribbean coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across the island through the weekend especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough extends through a series of upper lows from the northeast Atlantic near 32N26W to a low near 30N34W, 28N57W, and 21N66W then continues as a trough across the Dominican Republic/ Mona Passage into the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the central Atlantic extending from 31N56W to 24N53W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. A second weak surface trough extends from 21N46W to 17N47W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N57W along 27N71W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak front will move into the northwest waters early Sunday, then dissipate through Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW

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