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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 999 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 34N28W OR ABOUT 255 NM S OF
THE AZORES IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF THE 31N AND COULD
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 16W-23W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 10N30W TO 10N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
29N94W TO BEYOND 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT E TO 82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N74W TO BEYOND W
COSTA RICA AT 9N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 70W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO 78W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N65W. A
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N49W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N50W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. A 999 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N28W. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATALNTIC NEAR 22N63W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SURFACE FRONT. LIKEWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N27W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC LOW REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA