Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 272352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF HONDURAS... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N79W TO 16N87W. EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 14 FEET SOUTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 87W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH 0600 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 6N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 26W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE SE GULF AT 25N88W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE FRONT. 20-25 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE SE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N79W TO 16N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W- 88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 82W...TO INCLUDE W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA ... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. PRESENTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY ADVECTS IN FROM E CUBA FRIDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE FRONT. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 48W-60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E AND WEAKEN TO AN UPPER TROUGH WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA

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