Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL
SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.