Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191659

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 13.9N 68.1W at 19/1500 UTC
or about 110 nm NNE of Curacao and about 880 nm E of Cabo Gracias
a Dios on the Nicaragua and Honduras border moving W at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 12N-17N between 65W-73W. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave extends from 10N43W to 20N38W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 37W-50W...and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the
northern extent of the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is
from 08N-12N between 37W-43W...and from 15N-22N between 37W-45W.

A tropical wave extends from 16N60W to 23N57W moving W-NW at
10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing N of 17N
between 54W-64W. Latest scatterometer data indicates the wave
lacks a low at the surface...however 850 mb relative vorticity is
maximized along the wave axis near 21N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N-22N between 55W-61W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N81W to 21N81W moving W at 10-15
kt. Broad troughing at 700 mb is noted in global model data over
the NW Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico while an upper
level low is centered to the N near 24N85W. Energy from the wave
has fractured to the N-NE and is analyzed as a surface trough
across the Bahamas from 23N79W to 28N76W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-17N between 80W-85W.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N21W to 10N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 10N44W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-09N between 13W-24W...and from 08N-13N between 45W-54W.


An upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N85W and
continue to provide support for a surface trough analyzed across
the eastern Florida panhandle near 30N83W SW to 27N86W. Low-level
moisture convergence along with divergence aloft is generating
scattered showers and tstms generally N of 24N between 83W-90W.
Farther west...a surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high centered
near 27N91W extends an axis S-SW across the western Gulf to
20N97W. Mostly clear skies prevail W of 90W within light to gentle
anticyclonic winds. The ridge is forecast to shift N through
Sunday with overall light to moderate E-SE winds expected through
early next week.

The primary area of concern across the Caribbean this afternoon is
Tropical Storm Harvey currently tracking through the central
waters. Harvey is forecast to reach Central America by Monday
morning. Up until then...a tropical wave along 81W will increase
cloudiness and convective precipitation across portions of Central
America as the wave moves westward and into the East Pacific

Daytime heating...local sea breezes...and mountain upslope
lifting will combine with available moisture and produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the island mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend.

The SW North Atlc remains under the influence of an upper level
low centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W and the
associated surface trough extending from central Cuba near 23N79W
to 28N76W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 23N-29N
between 74W-79W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
remains fairly tranquil with influence from a surface ridge
extending from 30N50W to 27N72W. Elsewhere...outside of tropical
wave mentioned above...surface ridging prevails across the central
and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 35N34W
and a 1024 mb high centered near 32N40W.

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