Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 282355

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A 1008 mb surface low is located near 29N26W. Gale-force winds
are to the north and west of the low for the METEO-FRANCE areas
of IRVING and METEOR. These conditions will diminish in 24 hours
as the low dissipates. For more details, please refer to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast product that is listed on the

A cold front is forecast to be over the western Gulf of Mexico
Sunday with 30 kt N winds behind the front. A Gale is forecast
Sunday evening N of front with seas to 10 ft. For more details,
please refer to the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The Monsoon Trough extends form the coast of west Africa near
08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 02N30W to
the coast of South America near 02S45W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03S-07N between 16W-55W.



15-20 kt SW return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery
shows scattered moderate convection over W Cuba; and scattered
showers over the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida. Areas of
smoke are over the NW Gulf moving NW restricting visibility along
the Texas coast. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf
with axis along 80W. Broken high clouds are over the SW Gulf.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours. A Gale is expected
over the NW Gulf in 48 hours behind a cold front. See above.


15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
over numerous locations this evening due to maximum diurnal
heating namely: Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, NW
Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras,
and Guatemala. Scattered showers are also over the Leeward
Islands. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with
axis along 80W. Expect similar weather over the next 24 hours with
the addition of convection over the Leeward Islands.


Presently scattered moderate convection and scattered showers are
over the island due to maximum diurnal heating. Expect a repeat
tomorrow evening especially over the Dominican Republic.


A large 1034 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 39N45W. An
area of scattered showers are N of the Leeward Islands from from
20N-25N between 60W-71W. Further E, a 1008 mb surface low is
W of the Canary Islands near 29N26W. Gale-force winds are
to the north and west of the low. See above. Of note in the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 27N68W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing
the showers N of the Leeward Islands. Another small upper level
low is W of the Canary Islands near 28N22W enhancing showers.

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