Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 251746

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The 24 hour OUTLOOK from 26 Oct 2016,
includes the following: Persistent southeast near gale with
threat of locally gale over MADEIRA, AGADIR, and TARFAYA.


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 35W from
6N-14N drifting west less than 5 kt over the past 24 hours. This
wave was relocated after looking at 24 hours of satellite,
models, and guidance. The energy associated with this wave, is
being split by an upper trough to the west. Scattered moderate
with embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are from 4N-
12N between 32W-41W.

Tropical wave in east Caribbean was relocated east of the Lesser
Antilles from 19N59W to 11N61W moving west-northwest near 5 kt
over the past 24 hours. After looking at 24 hours of satellite,
models, and guidance it was determined this wave has slowed and
broadened over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad
700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave
is now beneath and inverted upper trough which is enhancing
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 10N-
15N between 57W-64W.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W along 9N23W 7N36W to 7N39W where the ITCZ
begins and continues along 9N48W to 12N58W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 5N-13N between 21W-28W an0
from 5N-10N between 28W-32W.



An upper ridge covers the Gulf west of 92W anchored off the west
coast of Mexico in the east Pacific and extending an upper ridge
axis across Mexico and Texas into the central CONUS. A second
upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba and the
Florida peninsula covering the Gulf east of 86W. A narrow upper
trough is wedged between these upper ridges with a surface
trough extending from 24N92W to the northeast Yucatan peninsula
near 20N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. A surface ridge
dominates the remainder of the Gulf anchored by a 1032 mb high
over the Great Lakes region with a weaker 1022 mb high over
northeast Mexico. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air is
moving in from the west covering the Gulf west of 94W. Isolated
showers are possible thunderstorms are within 45 nm of a line
from 21N95W to northeast Mexico near 25N98W. The remainder of
the Gulf is experiencing fair weather this afternoon. High
pressure over the Gulf will be replaced by a stronger high
pressure that will build south along the eastern seaboard this
afternoon through the end of the week. This will increase the
winds over the east Gulf and the Straits of Florida that will
then spread across the central Gulf through the end of the week.
Strong to near gale force winds will develop along the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico Thursday night.


The deep layered trough over the west Atlantic narrows south of
30N extending south to over Hispaniola. This upper trough
continues to support a front in the west Atlantic with a
shearline extending from northwest Haiti near 20N73W across
Jamaica to 16N81W. Wedged between the upper trough over the the
Yucatan peninsula and this upper trough is an upper ridge that
extends from 14N79W to across Cuba near 22N81W then over the
Florida peninsula. Diffluence aloft is generating scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 200/225 nm of
a line from Cuba near 21N78W to Central America near 16N84W
including the coast of Nicaragua and the Gulf of Honduras.
Showers and thunderstorms over the Windward islands are due to
the tropical wave approaching the islands. The monsoon trough
extends along 10N across the southwest Caribbean generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N east
of 78W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear
skies this afternoon. The shearline will persist through
Wednesday night. The tropical wave will move across the east
Caribbean through Wednesday night then weaken as it moves into
the central Caribbean Thursday.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north
coast of the island this afternoon due to a surface trough that
extends to the Mona Passage and the central Atlantic stationary
front that extends to northwest Haiti. The front is expected to
transition to a shearline tonight. A second cold front is
expected to merge with the stationary front Wednesday night then
left out of the area thereafter. This will limit moisture across
the island until later in the week. Afternoon showers and
possible thunderstorms could form through Thursday.


A deep layered trough covers the northwest Atlantic north of 30N
then narrows as it continues south to over Hispaniola. This upper
trough continues to support a stationary front that extends
through 32N58W along 22N68W to southwest Haiti near 20N73W where
a shearline continues into the Caribbean. A surface trough
precedes the front extending from 27N71W to the north Mona
Passage near 20N68W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the surface trough with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm east
of the stationary front. A surface ridge that covers the Gulf of
Mexico extends east into the remainder of the west Atlantic west
of the above front. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic
anchored by a 1027 mb high north of the discussion area between
Bermuda and the Azores. A deep layered trough over the northeast
Atlantic is supporting a surface trough that extends through
32N16W across the Canary Islands along 24N16W to 17N31W.
isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the area north of 25N
east of 22W. The west Atlantic front south of 25N will
transition to a shearline tonight where it will persist through
Wednesday night. Another cold front will sweep across the north
portion of the west Atlantic this afternoon and evening before
merging with the remainder of the stationary front Wednesday
night. This combined cold front will continue to move eastward
as a strong high pressure builds into the west Atlantic Thursday
through the end of the week.

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