Tropical Weather Discussion
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303
AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N10W to
04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01S30W to the South
American Coast near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03S-04N between 24W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03S-06N between 31W-36W, and from 03S-05N between 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1013 mb low is centered near Lake Charles
Louisiana at 29N93W. A surface trough extends S from the low to
the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N96W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 27N between 92W-94W. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is E of
the trough due to ridging. In the upper levels, a very sharp
trough is over central Texas moving E. An upper level ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level moisture is over
E Texas and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over Florida and
the E Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to merge with
the surface trough and extend from Mobile Alabama to the SE Bay
of Campeche with convection. Also expect 25 kt NW winds behind
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a cold front is N of Hispaniola producing
scattered showers along 20N. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia,
and over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over N
Venezuela, N Colombia, W Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, E Cuba,
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and The Virgin Islands. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is over the NW Caribbean Sea near
16N85W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean except
over the Yucatan Channel. Expect in 24 hours for prefrontal
convection to be over the Yucatan Peninsula. Also expect
scattered showers to be over the Leeward Islands due to the tail-
end of another cold front.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect showers to persist
for the next 12 hours, followed by fair weather.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A
cold front extends S to N of Hispaniola along 26N66W 23N66W
21N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to
24N50W to 22N58W to 25N61W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 22N-26N between 56W-65W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the remainder of the front. A 1033 mb high is centered N
of the Azores near 44N21W with a ridge axis extending S to the E
Atlantic near 25N35W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 18N between 55W-70W
supporting the W Atlantic front. Another upper level trough is
over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 35W-45W supporting
the central Atlantic front. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the W Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N56W with
convection and showers. Also expect the central Atlantic front
to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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