Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W...TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 6N26W
7N40W 7N48W...TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W
4N14W 5N18W 6N21W AND 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF HONDURAS...CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...VERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...27N74W... 22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. STRATIFORM CLOUDS
ARE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N93W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA-TO-THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N...AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH
CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...CURVING
THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N NORTHWARD
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. IT IS MOVING ON TOP
OF MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 15N74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN HAVANA IN CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN
COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 12N83W TO 12N80W TO 11N76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PAST HAITI. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA
ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WITH A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW
FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE
EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD AND
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 16N TO 22N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 17N45W 19N45W
21N46W 22N48W 21N50W 23N53W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N44W...THROUGH 33N55W TO 29N62W 27N70W...TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N30W 26N21W...AND TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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