240
AXNT20 KNHC 032246
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
03N30W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N
to 04N between 12W and 15W, and from 03N to 06N between 40W and
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh to strong
northerly winds off Louisiana in an outflow boundary related to
thunderstorms farther inland. Scatterometer data also indicates
moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, between high
pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley and lower pressure over
Mexico. Buoys in this area indicate seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and and 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered over Florida and lower pressures in the western Gulf will
support moderate to fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf of
Mexico well into next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse at night through the period near the northern and western
Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf sections.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough reaches from over Bermuda to over the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba to Jamaica. Divergent flow aloft
on the southeast side of this trough is supporting a line of
showers and thunderstorms across the northeast Caribbean from the
northern Leeward Islands to near 15N72W. This pattern is
supporting heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands
and the Leeward Islands. See local weather advisories for more
information. Mariners should also be aware of the potential for
strong gusts and locally rough seas in the area of showers and
thunderstorms. Associated surface troughs are breaking up the
subtropical ridge that is normally north of the area, which in
turn is resulting in mostly gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 4
ft seas across the basin. The except is moderate to fresh SE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas over the far southeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds over the southeast Caribbean will
gradually diminish through the weekend as the related pressure
gradient relaxes. Winds will increase in the far western
Caribbean late Wed. Similar winds will occur nocturnally in the
Windward Passage through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
expected elsewhere through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1018 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and the
Carolinas near 32N74W. The aforementioned upper trough is
supporting a surface trough from 31N57W to north pf Puerto Rico.
This pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft
combined seas west of the trough, north of 25N, and moderate E
breezes south of 25N and west of the trough, with 5 to 7 ft
combined seas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted
northeast of the Leeward Islands, associated with the upper
trough and along a surface trough reaching from 31N30W to the
northern Leeward Islands. 1021 mb high pressure is centered west
of the Canary Islands near 28N24w. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere across the Atlantic north of
25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and moderate to fresh trade wind
farther south with 6 to 8 ft seas.


$$
Christensen