Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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761
AXNT20 KNHC 050002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL
EXTEND NEAR 31N75W TO 23N80W ON THU SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
AND WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT S TO SW GALE-
FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU
EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W CONTINUING TO 03N16W TO 02N30W
TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N35W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG
01N45W TO 0N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING
FROM 12N46W TO 02N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN S TO A BASE OVER THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N82W SW TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS S OF
20N W OF 95W AND SW TO W WINDS N OF 24N E OF FRONT TO 82W...BOTH
REGIONS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. MODERATE NORTHERLIES ARE
ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SE THROUGH LATE THU
MORNING WHEN ITS TAIL MOVES TO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AT THU SUNRISE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH BASE NEAR
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WATERS. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MOVING E TO 80W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN SE FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES COVERS THE BASIN AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT
PREVAILS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU
MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND
HISPANIOLA FROM LATE THU THROUGH SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN THU MORNING WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS PREVAIL IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...NONE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N61W...THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N47W TO 25N50W AND THE THIRD EXTENDS FROM 24N39W TO
18N39W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC WATERS BY EARLY THU MORNING
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM
21N TO 24N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



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