Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current synoptic analysis consists of: a cold front from
31N38W to 27N44W to 24N50W. A surface trough is along 25N64W
to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N68W, to 19N68W.
Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from
13 feet to 16 feet, from 24N to 26N between 66W and 69W. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 05N13W and 03N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N16W, to the Equator along 30W, to 03S40W at
the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
to locally strong to the southeast of the line 10N14W 05N30W
04N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the
U.S.A. The southeastern part of the trough is moving through the
NE quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across all of the
Gulf of Mexico, except near the trough that is in the NE quadrant
of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N
northward between 84W and 90W, associated with a squall line.
through east Texas into Louisiana.

A surface ridge passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across central Florida, through the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the coast of Mexico near 20N.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KVQT, KEIR, KSPR, KGRY, and
KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Victoria. LIFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake
Jackson, and Beaumont/Port Arthur. LIFR in Sugar Land and Houston
Hobby Airport. IFR in Pearland. MVFR at the Ellington Field in
Houston. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the SW and south central coastal
sections, and off the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain at the
Hammond Regional Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. IFR in
the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, and in Pascagoula. MVFR in
Natchez eastward and southeastward. ALABAMA: light rain in Dothan
and Fort Rucker. IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: IFR in Pensacola.
IFR and light drizzle in Mary Esther. light rain in Destin. heavy
rain in the NW part of the area of Panama City. light drizzle in
the SE part of the Panama City metropolitan area.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N77W to a 26N75W cyclonic
circulation center, to Hispaniola, and then eventually to SE
Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 25N64W, to a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 21N68W. The surface trough continues
from the 1012 mb low pressure center, through the Mona Passage,
to 15N70W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 18N to 29N between 54W and 70W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The dividing line of wind flow regimes is the 32N77W-to-SE
Nicaragua upper level trough. Upper level SW wind flow covers
everywhere that is to the east of the trough. Upper level NW wind
flow is to the NW of the trough.

Rainshowers are comparatively more possible to the east of the
trough, more precisely to the east of the line from the Mona
Passage to 14N74W and 09N78W. Rainshowers also are possible from
15N northward from 76W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across
the island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal
waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana:
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will
be to the west of Hispaniola for about the first 24 hours. The
trough will move NE into the Atlantic Ocean eventually. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a trough will be to the west
of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. The
trough will move eastward during day one, and it will span the
island from day one into day two. Expect broad and general
westerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a trough will be to
the west of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Expect SW and W
wind flow during the forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 26N33W. A cold
front passes through 32N37W to 24N50W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 25W and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N
northward between Africa and the 32N37W 24N50W cold front.
A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N29W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west
of the 32N37W 24N50W cold front, from 26N northward from 40W
westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 33N61W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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