Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 052337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 05N13W where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N27W
to 08N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either
side of the ITCZ between 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 mb surface low is centered a across the northwest Gulf near
28N94W extending a cold front from the low to 24N94W to 20N97W
and a stationary front from the low to 29N91W to 30N86W. A
diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
over a portion of the stationary front affecting the northeast
Gulf mainly north of 27N and east of 88W. Fog and haze are being
reported in the north central portion of the basin mainly north
of 27N between 88W-92W which coincides with GOES medium to high
IFR probabilities. Visibilities of less than 3 miles but greater
than 1 mile are expected in this area. Commercial and recreational
vessels in this zone must exercise caution. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds west of the cold front
while moderate southerly winds prevail east of the front and over
the remainder of the basin. Expect for the low and cold front to
continue moving east across the basin during the next 24 hours. A
stronger cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday
night followed by strong to gale force winds prevailing through
the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface high is centered in the west Atlantic and
extending across the Caribbean basin. A stationary 1010 mb surface
low is located north of Colombia near 10N77W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 14N83W. Isolated showers are observed
along the trough and near the low center. A surface trough extends
from the Atlantic across the Mona Passage from 18N69W to 19N67W
with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades
across the basin. Upper-level ridging across the remainder
Caribbean along with strong dry air subsidence support stable and
fair weather conditions elsewhere. Surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trade winds near the
coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela every night and early
morning hours through midweek.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough in the west Atlantic across the Mona Passage from
18N69W to 19N67W with isolated showers. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Tuesday as the tail of a cold front moves over
the northern portion of the island.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1019 mb high centered near 30N68W. To the east, a cold front
extends from 21N70W to 24N49W to 32N36W. A pre-frontal trough is
south of this front from 19N68W to 22N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed to the east of a portion of the cold front
mainly north of 25N between 30W-40W. A surface trough extends from
16N48W to 12N49W with isolated showers. The eastern portion of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021
mb high centered near 28N19W. Expect for the cold front to
continue moving east through the next 24 hours. A new cold front
will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday night reaching from
Bermuda to south Florida Wednesday night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA



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