Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND
55W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...FROM 14N IN
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N22W TO 6N32W TO 5N37W AND 3N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND
18W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60
NM RADIUS OF 8N23W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS
WITHIN 720 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING MUCH OF
FLORIDA...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMZG AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN
ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED IN LOUISIANA IN PORT FOURCHON. LIGHT RAIN IS IN
MISSISSIPPI IN GULFPORT AND IN BILOXI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN ALABAMA IN MOBILE AND IN GULF SHORES. IN
FLORIDA...HEAVY RAIN IS IN MARIANNA...DRIZZLE IS IN PANAMA
CITY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARATHON KEY AND IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TOWARD THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO CUBA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
85W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...FROM 14N IN
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS MOSTLY THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG NOW IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD 74W
AND 80W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN HAVANA
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD
ABOUT 250 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD...
FROM A 29N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W 20N62W 15N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 32N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD...
FROM A 34N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
1300 NM TO 1400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 29N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA
FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 34W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 34N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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