Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
73W-77W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATER THIS
MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 3N45W TO 12N44W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG A BROADER
700 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
JET N OF 9N LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED N
OF 10N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N62W TO 19N59W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE ALSO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND
INCORPORATES THE NORTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX OF A 700 MB
TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 58W-67W...INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS E OF THE WAVE WITH LEADING
EDGE NOTED E OF 57W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH S MEXICO EXTENDS S OF 20N ALONG
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 20N16W TO 10N24W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N24W TO 09N39W TO 02N51W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N92W. STATIONARY FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ANALYZED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W-SW TO 25N90W
TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
TO ANCHOR ROUGHLY ALONG 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW CUBA NEAR 21N84W. MOST
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N71W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS DRY AND
SUBSIDENT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MOST OF
THIS IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE WEST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING FROM MODERATELY DRY
AIR ALOFT RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND
NEAR 18N71W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF THE ISLAND AS
WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N75W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS
NEAR 30N33W AND 29N47W ALONG 28N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE OCEANIC AREA EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVES NOTED ABOVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IN
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DUST STRETCHING
MOSTLY NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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