Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 30/2100 UTC, a cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico
from SE Louisiana at 29N91W to 23N94W to the Bay of Campeche at
19N94W. A small 1005 mb low is at the base of the front at 19N94W.
Gale force winds are from 19N-21N W of front. The gale is expected
to continue for a few more hours until 01/0000 UTC. The surface
pressure gradient is expected to relax as the front moves quickly
east. Please refer to the latest National Hurricane Center High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends form the coast of west Africa near
10N13W to 05N18W. A surface trough is off the coast of west
Africa from 09N20W to 01N21W moving W at 10 kt. The ITCZ extends
from 03N23W to 01N30W to 01N42W to the coast of South America
near 01S47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 5S-6N
between 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 30/2100 UTC, a cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico
from SE Louisiana at 29N91W to 23N94W to the Bay of Campeche at
19N94W. A small 1005 mb low is at the base of the front at 19N94W.
Gale force winds are from 19N-21N W of front. 15-30 kt N winds are
over the remainder of the W Gulf, W of front. A squall line is
within 90 nm E of the front, N of 26N. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is along the squall line. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection over W Cuba. Isolated showers are
over the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. Areas of smoke
are over the Gulf moving N, basically E of front from S Mexico to
the Florida Panhandle, restricting visibility. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over Texas and the NW Gulf. A
ridge is over the E Gulf with axis along 82W. Broken high clouds
NE Gulf. Expect the front in 24 hours to extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the SE Bay of Campeche with showers and convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, NW Venezuela, N
Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala. Scattered
showers are over the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the W Caribbean with axis along 82W. An upper level trough
is over the E Caribbean E of 70W. Expect similar weather over the
next 24 hours, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
Also expect additional convection over the Leeward Islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the island due to maximum diurnal heating, and upper level
diffluence. Expect a lessening of precipitation tomorrow, as most
convection shifts E towards the Leeward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. An area of
scattered showers are N of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands
from 20N-24N between 60W-70W. Another 1024 mb high is over the
E Atlantic near 32N31W. A surface trough is NW of the Cape Verde
Islands from 22N27W to 16N27W. Of note in the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 24N69W.
An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N
between 40W-60W. Another small upper level low is over Morocco.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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