Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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000 ABNT20 KNHC 230532 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm activity has increased over the northern portion of the system tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more information. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the low this morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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