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000
ABNT20 KNHC 230532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.

Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week.  This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana.  Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching
across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this
system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic.  Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown