Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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356 FXUS61 KBGM 261055 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 655 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days. Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 4 am update... Thin high-level cloudiness covers much of the region at this time, with temperatures expected to range mostly in the 50s by around daybreak. Readings will warm quickly again after sunrise. Today`s weather is expected to be similar to what we experienced yesterday, in many regards. Both satellite imagery and meso- analyses confirm a mid-level short-wave axis early this morning, extending from around Lake Superior, southward through the OH and TN Valleys. Although this feature is expected to approach our region this afternoon, it will also be in the process of dampening out with time. A close inspection of area model soundings this afternoon also shows the development of an inverted-V type profile, with fairly dry boundary layer conditions. Most of our high-resolution convection allowing models show scattered showers and thunderstorms out to our west, slowly weakening/fading as they approach Central NY/Northeast PA later in the day and early this evening. Given the expected weakening trend of the supporting short-wave and the dry low-level environment it will be moving into (as mentioned above), the diminishing trend through our forecast area seems quite reasonable. As a result, we`ll undercut Superblend POP`s a bit, and mention only widely scattered showers/storms, at best (POP`s 20-35%). Look for highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s again this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 415 am update... Any isolated-scattered early evening convection is expected to dissipate again overnight, underneath partly-mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be milder than recent nights, with lows only in the upper 50s-mid 60s. Friday-Saturday, our summer-time pattern will continue, with an upper ridge axis amplifying over the eastern states. This will likely add a few degrees to our high temperatures, with readings solidly in the 80s each afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it would not be shocking to see some of our normally warmer, more urbanized areas in the lake plain, approach 90 degrees. As far as convective potential goes, isolated-scattered coverage seems like the most probable scenario. Building heights/temperatures aloft will be detracting factors, but increasing surface dew points and diurnal instability (ML Capes likely into the 1000-2000 j/kg range) should be enough to bring at least hit and miss thunderstorms. A weak convergence zone/back- door type surface front in the vicinity (especially by late Saturday) may also act as a trigger, particularly up over our northern zones. Any threat for strong-severe storms looks low, however, with very weak environmental winds all the way up through mid-levels of the atmosphere. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 pm Wednesday update... Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR through late morning all terminals. An area of showers and thunderstorms will develop between noon and 4 PM, mainly NY terminals. Confidence medium to high in timing and enough coverage to warrent a tempo group of MVFR vsbys during that time, NY terminals. Brief IFR Vsbys possible and if confidence continues to grow, a small window of -TSRA may be added to the TAFS. By early evening remnants of showers and storms will dissipate with a return to VFR. Light and variable through mid morning becoming S/SW by this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain showers could reduce conditions. Starting Friday visibilities could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...Heden

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