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165
FXUS61 KBGM 161829
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours and
gusty winds. More scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible on Thursday, along with locally heavy rainfall. Dry
weather is expected to return on Friday and for most of Saturday
before more rain showers are expected to move in Saturday night
through Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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225 PM Update:

After a hot and humid day today, a potent shortwave will move
through the region this evening. Ahead of this shortwave, a few
thunderstorms have developed across parts of Western NY and may
clip parts of the Finger Lakes Region by the late afternoon.
That being said, the bulk of the activity will likely occur this
evening with better forcing from the shortwave itself and a MCV
moving through. Elevated PWATs (1.75"-2.00") along with modeled
soundings showing long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud depths
will result in possible flash flooding, particularly across
parts of the Wyoming Valley in Northeast PA. A Flood Watch has
been issued for Wyoming, Luzerne, and Lackawanna counties for
5PM this evening to midnight. In addition there is a risk for a
few isolated stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms this
evening, but relatively weak lapse rates and modest shear will
likely limit this potential.

Thursday will feature more active weather as a cold front will
move into the region. Ahead of this front, it will be very warm
and humid once again (highs in the mid 80s to near 90), although
most likely just under Heat Advisory criteria. Leftover morning
showers from tonight`s batch of rain will result in some
morning clouds, but the expectation is that these clouds will
dissipate by the late morning or early afternoon. Ahead of the
cold front, there will be in excess of 1500 J/kg of CAPE and
0-6km shear increasing to 25-35kts. Lapse rates will steepen as
well. Hodographs show the potential for some rotating
thunderstorms, with isolated supercells possible ahead of the
cold front. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threats,
but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. One area of
uncertainty is if clouds from morning convective debris keep the
environment a bit more stable heading into the afternoon.

Any lingering showers quickly end Thursday evening following the
passage of the cold front as drier and cooler air advects into
the region. Lows are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
110 PM Update...

High pressure keeps conditions pleasant and dry for all of
Friday and the majority of Saturday. Zonal westerly flow helps
to keep things calm, while slightly dividing up high
temperatures, with low to mid 70s expected for Central NY and
mid to upper 70s for NE PA on Friday. For Saturday, high
pressure remains for the majority of the day, except with zonal
flow being disrupted with lower level flow turning more
southwest. Warm are advection allows for temperatures to
increase into the low to mid 80s for the majority of areas, with
higher elevations possibly in the upper 70s, and valley
locations a little warmer than the mid 80s. A disturbance moving
west to east over the Great Lakes region will move into our
area heading into Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing
showers and storms for the entire area potentially through the
night and into a portion of the long term period. Currently,
these storms lack CAPE but show some 0-6 km bulk shear and mid-
level lapse rate values that could help these storms become
severe, but confidence is too low currently to determine how
strong these storms could be, especially with the lack of CAPE
in model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
110 PM Update...

As mentioned in the short term period, showers and storms could
potentially continue into the daytime on Sunday. Overhead
ridging and surface high pressure from the north pushes down
into the area Monday, resulting in a likely beautiful,
precipitation free day for Monday. At the very end of the long
term period, guidance gets very divided, where high pressure may
stick around for Tuesday, or the next system comes in slightly
earlier with showers in the afternoon. We`ll keep an eye on the
progression in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, but
brief restrictions will be possible in any heavier shower or
thunderstorm that may more through. After the showers and
thunderstorms depart, MVFR ceilings are expected to move into
KITH, KBGM, and KAVP. With rain moving through KELM, fog should
develop, with IFR conditions developing after 08z tonight.
Conditions return to VFR by mid-late morning on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Flood Watch from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for PAZ043-044-047.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     023>025-036-037-055-056.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG