Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261031 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 531 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS. THURSDAY TO SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS. FOR THE CWA THIS COASTAL STORM WILL GIVE THE AREA ALL SNOW. QPF AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR EAST AND SE. THIS WILL GIVE THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE NAM SPREADS MORE SNOW FURTHER WEST. UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. THIS PUT OTSEGO IN A WARNING. ALSO SRN ONEIDA, MADISON AND CORTLAND EDGED UP TO AN ADVISORY. TOUGH PART IS THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MORE THAN 12 HOURS OF STEADY SNOW. BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL BE SE OF AVP BGM AND ONEONTA. DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITE ZONE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FGEN FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. SNOW WILL START BETWEEN 7 AND NOON. MID CLOUDS TO THE SE WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE CREATING A SEEDER FEEDER EVENT. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK ONSET FROM S TO N. SNOW MOVES OUT FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT BUT LINGERS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF FORCING GONE AND MOISTURE PULLING OUT. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE NE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... AS THE STORM QUICKLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC A NW FLOW SETS UP WITH CAA. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING THU AND THU NGT. LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY CAA CONTINUES WITH LAKE EFFECT AND LL NW FLOW. MULTIBANDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY. A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL NOSE IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT THE WIND ENDING THE LES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRI NGT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 300 PM EST UPDATE... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS, AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR, AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH. VSBYS WILL TEND TO RISE AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. XPCT CIGS AND VSBY GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE END OF THEPD...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY BHD THE STORM. OUTLOOK... WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP. THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME. SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040- 043-044-047-048-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ046-057- 062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ036-037- 044-045-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN

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