Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 221923 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 323 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will sweep through the area tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms affecting portions of the region through this evening. Pleasant weather will return on Wednesday with clearing skies and lower humidities. Clouds and a few sprinkles will be possible again on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Convective event underway this afternoon as formidable low pressure system/cold front arrives from the upper Great Lakes. Looks like we are going to have to battle two distinct lines of developing convection which the models have been struggling to differentiate today. The first line now affecting the Finger Lakes to north central PA may tend to fizzle a bit late this afternoon as we`ve lost some instability over the Southern Tier NY. A second line developing over Western NY is much better forced with a deep plume of moisture, stronger convergence and shear. We`re still counting on this one to sweep through most of the tornado watch area this evening where EHI values will be increasing from 21Z-00Z. Timing of thunderstorm activity into our far eastern NY zones and across NEPA may be late enough to preclude much threat of severe weather, but there is still a risk, so this area will have to be monitored for watch potential. Fairly confident that much of the activity will be out of the region shortly after 03Z and have made adjustments to PoPs/Wx to move out the bulk of lingering rainfall aside from low chances for scattered showers overnight. Wednesday will be post frontal and breezy with modest cold advection and drier dewpoints. Temperatures in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A broad trof remains over the region during this time as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. This will force our area to be under cool northerly advection and thus marginally unstable across CNY due to lake temperature differentials and colder air aloft. Diurnal heating and some weak waves rotating around the broad trof could trigger widely scattered showers and sprinkles on Thursday. Nearly Fall like temps with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s...possibly even some upper 40s in the colder rural areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in for a rather uncharacteristic mainly rain free extended period of time for these parts. Mainly dry weather and unseasonably cool conditions should prevail through the weekend and into early next week within a pattern such as what is being shown. Several of the medium range models are trying to float some tropical systems into the Gulf States and offshore of the SE Atlantic early next week. Although these appear to be a non-issue for us at this time, the model trends do bear close monitoring for any changes.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Airports will be affected by thunderstorm activity into early evening, followed by ceilings varying on the VFR-MVFR edge for a time tonight. Gradual clearing is expected overnight with the potential for patchy fog, although drier air moving into the area may alleviate very dense fog. Breezy and drier on Wednesday with broken VFR ceilings developing after 14Z. Winds S-SW 15-30 KTS becoming W-NW around 10 KTS tonight and then NW 10-20 KTS and gusty on Wednesday. Winds variable with possible gusts in excess of 50 KTS in any thunderstorms tonight. Outlook... Wednesday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB

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