Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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811 FXUS61 KBGM 301859 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday into Friday evening as a cold front moves through the northeast. The long weekend will be dry with warmer air moving in Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 2 pm update... Scattered clouds with temperatures mostly 75 to 80. Most of clouds will dissipate around sunset. Winds drop to light or calm. Some light patchy valley fog is possible late evening into early morning before boundary layer winds increase and clouds move in ahead of the next system. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 pm Update... The best chance of rain in the upcoming week will be Friday. A strong cold front and upper level trof will drop through the area Friday afternoon and early evening. Models do bring some moisture north ahead of the front but not as much as shown on yesterday`s runs. This should help with the severe potential and increasing low level instability due to surface heating. Best forcing east of interstate 81 and in NY. Continuing with the likely pops for the afternoon. Model soundings similar with Nam cape close to 1k and Gfs 500. Saturated soundings so a tall skinny cape. Deep wind shear still around 40 kts. Damaging winds are the most likely outcome. Showers and thunderstorms mostly exit the east in the evening. Partial clearing and windy post frontal. High pressure and a northwest flow of air Saturday will drop temps back into the 70s, making for a cool start to the long weekend. Cold enough air aloft for some lake clouds. In addition winds will be strong and gusty behind the low in se Canada and the high over the Midwest. Sunday warmer with the high over the area and building heights aloft. High temps back around 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 pm Thursday update... The largely cyclonic pattern aloft this weekend will shift to a more zonal flow through the week...which will allow the cooler/milder air to move out and usher in a warmer air mass through the middle of the week. There is still the potential for a few showers and storms across the Twin Tiers and NE PA Tuesday as an embedded upper wave and associated inverted trough track through the mid-Atlantic region. There is still some uncertainty regarding the nwd extent of this precip shield...but confidence is decreasing as the latest 12Z model runs have all shifted the bulk of the precip well to the south. The one exception is the Canadian model...which still brings a swath of 1 inch of rain along and south of the NY/PA border. High pressure builds in across the region into the middle to latter half of the week. Should remain dry for most of the region with no significant chances for accumulating rain. High temperatures will warm from the low to mid 80s early in the week...into the mid to upper 80s, close to 90 by late in the week. Lows will warm as well...into the lower/mid 50s on Monday, into the upper 50s and 60s later in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure at the surface and a dry air mass dominating the weather today keeping conditions VFR. A FEW-SCT050 strato-cu deck has formed and should dissipate through the afternoon with variable winds. An upper short wave will move over the surface high early this evening and produce a secondary deck of mid level clouds. Conditions clear out behind the departing wave later tonight and allow favorable conditions for patchy fog at ELM. Another upper wave moves in from the w/sw Friday morning with cloud cover increasing but remaining VFR for most sites. Will see the chance of rain increase from SW to NE into the afternoon...impacting ELM and ITH before 18Z with possible MVFR ceilings as well. Winds will increase out of the south ahead of the front Friday morning...gusting to 20 kt. OUTLOOK... Friday afternoon-night...Periodic restrictions in showers/storms are possible. Sat through Tue...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT

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