Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 192312 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 612 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 3 PM UPDATE... COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND AROUND 20. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT. QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE REASONS. MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS CEILINGS INCH UPWARD. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION, THE BGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG. MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...DJP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.