Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 101142 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 642 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING THE AREA SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AT 430 AM LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WAS LIFTING OUT AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST INTO NRN NYS AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS TO CENTRAL NY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE TWO INCHES OR LESS. IN THE SNOW ADV/WARNING AREA ACCUMS COULD APPROACH THREE INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY THIS EVENING T85 DROPS LOW ENOUGH FOR LES TO BEGIN. THROUGH LATE EVENING MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND VARIABILITY WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER THAT EXTENDS TO ALMOST 700 MB. BUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 290/300 FLOW IS DEPICTED. AT THE SAME TIME T85 DROPS TO AROUND -20C BY 18Z. DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT, VERY COLD AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING DECIDED TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO A WARNING ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE FLAG IN TIME INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT, LIFTING THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM THE SYR AREA SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY. FOR SENECA, SRN CAYUGA, CORTLAND, CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMS HERE WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OT TWO. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MINS, WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 20 WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NE PA. FRIDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND T85 AROUND -25C WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE BITTER COLD FOR THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE THE NE WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. WE INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH MODEL BLEND KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND BUT MADE SOME DEVIATIONS...GOING EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THIS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS SATURDAY AND ALSO RAISING THE POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT. IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY DETAILS, CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY ON BITTER NW FLOW. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HOWEVER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE SO COLD ENTIRE PROFILE WILL BE COLDER THAN DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE EXTREME INSTABILITY. DUE KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR SENECA EAST THROUGH CAYUGA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES. FOR SUNDAY, ONLY SOME MODERATION EXPECTED COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT, THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THERE`S A CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHEST IMPACTED TERMINALS TODAY WILL BE KSYR AND KRME. GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS HERE WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY. BY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, STEADIER AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING (18Z-03Z) TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY AT KRME, AS THE BANDS MAY MOVE AROUND QUITE A BIT. STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST IFR VSBYS AT KRME AND PERHAPS AT KSYR. AFTER 03Z WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ALIGN ENOUGH TO FAVOR A LONG DRUATION, LONG EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM NEAR KRME, TO OVER KSYR. IFR VSBYS LIKELY, WITH AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AT KSYR THROUGH PARTS OF THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. FLURRIES ONLY AT KAVP. AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR WITH SCT. FLURRIES, AS THESE TERMINALS ARE JUST OUT OF THE REACH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. .OUTLOOK... THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-017-044>046. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...HEDEN

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