Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 260005 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The chance for showers and thunderstorms will prevail in the forecast through Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected to briefly return on Wednesday. The next system to follow will soon move into the are on Thursday and the chance for precipitation will last through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 745 PM Update... We have had a few strong to marginally severe cells develop using the heating of the day and with steep lapse rates extending through the mid levels. Inverted-V noted at bottom of model soundings, suggesting potential for accelerated downdrafts which indeed is what has played out. Gust fronts and cool pools have produced several 35-45 mph gust measurements where the storms have tracked, as well as a report of roof damage near Lisle. We have also had a few instances of small hail given the cool air aloft. Convection has likely peaked in its intensity, and it will continue to press east while weakening quickly this evening, with loss of heating. Previous discussion... Some showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon. Expect coverage to increase across the area as we are in an unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates are present as the airmass is cool aloft. A shortwave trough west of the region is also aiding in development. Showers/thunderstorms should decrease in coverage near 00Z tonight, as this activity is mostly diurnally driven. The trough will move across the region after 00Z and push a weak sfc cold front across NY/PA and push cooler air aloft. Weak lake enhancement showers will develop in its wake as 850MB temps fall to near 5/6 deg C. These may linger through the night. Temps Sunday night/Monday morning are expected to fall into the uppr 40s/ low 50s. Monday, the trend continues with unsettled weather as yet another shortwave is expected to swing across the region. Very similar conditions on Monday as today. Steep lapse rates, summer sun, embedded shortwaves, cool air aloft and SW flow aloft will all result in the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The mostly likely area to see showers will be over the Finger Lakes region. Temps are expected to rise into the mid/upper 60s over central NY and uppr 60s/low 70s over NEPA Monday afternoon. Precip should end after sunset and temps are expected to fall into the uppr 40s/low 50s by Tues morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper wave and surface front will sweep through the area on Tuesday triggering showers and thunderstorms. Best chance will be over the NY counties, nearer the upper support. Ridge at the surface and aloft builds in for Wednesday bringing drier air. Not a lot of cold air advection behind Tuesday`s front so temperatures on Wednesday will be driven by heating and may be a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Near zonal flow will quickly flatten the upper ridge and push the surface ridge east on Thursday. Approaching surface low and upper wave will cause showers to break out over western NY Thursday afternoon, but should hold off in our forecast area. Showers and psbl thunderstorms break out Thursday night as the system pushes in. Boundary looks like it may stall near the area Friday and be the focus of continued showers and storms into Saturday. Late Saturday, fast flow pushes yet another system into the area enhancing the chance for showers and storms through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Convection is now east of the NYS terminals although KAVP could see an unrestricted shower through 02Z. Overnight, VFR conditions are forecast with primarily mid level clouds. On Monday, low level moisture will result in ceiling around 4K feet then by afternoon upper level trough and diurnal heating will lead to widespread showers. For now it looks mainly like VFR showers. Winds becoming light and variable overnight then becoming westerly around 10 knots Monday morning. Outlook... Monday night - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are possible with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday & Friday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...RRM

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