Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 241305 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 905 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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900 AM EDT UPDATE... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY TO BE DRY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR -SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE. THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE VALLEY FOG AT KELM. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS. SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM.../KAH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KAH/MDP AVIATION...MDP

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