Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011053 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 653 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 AM EDT UPDATE... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST TEMPS TO MATCH REALITY OF OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DECREASE POPS OVER THE SE DUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIP. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... IT IS PRETTY QUITE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL JUST A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THESE ARE ORTHOGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND ARE GENERATED THIS MORNING DUE TO LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. BELIEVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO TRACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPR LVL LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FINGER LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. FINGER LAKE SHOWERS MAY START AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY CHILLY AS COLD AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. DUE TO STRONG CAA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS LATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO LOWER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM EDT UPDATE... WHAT FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE LEFT BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR WILL OVERCOME THE REGION. BY SUNDAY WE WILL FINALLY BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AND THE AMPLIFIED SFC LOW WILL BE EAST OF MASS. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. AS THIS SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST THE MSLP WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS... SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY CHILLY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 30S AND LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE... AND RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE MILD START, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE UPR LOW PULLS EAST THIS MRNG...FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NLY THEN NWLY AND ALLOW SOME LGT LE RAIN SHWRS AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SNWRS TO MVE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF THE FINGER LAKES...ESP ITH...EARLY THIS EVE. DRIER AIR COMING IN LATE TNGT SHD SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE LE PCPN EARLY SUNDAY. OTRW...MODELS FCST THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DVLPG SFC LOW OFF THE CST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FCST AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS. SUN-WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DGM

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