Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 070931 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 431 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mixed precip will move out of the region this morning and the remainder of the day will be dry. Lake effect snow showers will develop over the region tomorrow and produce heavy snow showers over Northern Oneida County and possibly over portions of central New York. Lake effect snows may linger through Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 415 AM EST Update... Precipitation continues to linger over the region this morning and is in the form of a wintry mix of rain/sleet/and snow. What is left is light and is moving east, and for the most part, expect most of the area to be dry by sunrise. Deep southwest flow aloft will develop over the region this afternoon as the next storm system starts to approach the region from the west. This will result in the 850MB temps decreasing from around -1C to -7 deg C and by Thurs morning 850MB temps will fall to -10 deg C. This will set up an environment conducive for lake effect snow showers to develop Thurs. While there is deep SW aloft, the mid-lvls will remain fairly dry, thus the majority of the day be fairly quiet. Low-lvl moisture will remain plentiful so mostly cloudy skies will prevail through the day. Temps this afternoon will rise into the uppr 30s to low 40s, and decrease into the mid 20s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 430 EST Update... Upgraded lake effect snow watch in northern Oneida County to warning. Lake Effect snow watch remains in effect for southern Oneida, southern Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison Counties. Still some uncertainty with these counties and plenty of time before significant snows start. Thursday...Through the morning hours deep southwest flow will exist across the area as an upper level trough approaches. By afternoon the flow becomes more westerly as cold air advection continues. Models indicate flow from Lake Erie will produce scattered snow showers across much of central New York. By late day the flow becomes favorable for northern Oneida County with deep moisture and well mixed above 700mb. Temperatures at 850 mb will be around -10C which is more than enough differential as lake temperatures are around 9C. Thursday night...Flow remains favorable for northern Oneida County until around 09Z when the secondary trough drops through the region. Up to this point the moisture depth and instability are really significant around 700mb, indicating good snow growth potential. BUFKIT does show some shear within the unstable layer possibly implying a broad lake effect snow band. Total snow accumulations in northern Oneida county could reach 8 to 15 inches by early Friday morning. Friday/Friday night...As the secondary trough drops south the low level flow becomes aligned at roughly 300 degrees which seems to persist through Friday night. After this boundary passes though the inversion lowers and moisture depth becomes fairly shallow. The temperature at 850mb drops to -15C indicating extreme instability on BUFKIT. Models also suggest a Georgian Bay connection through Friday. Model QPF during lake effect events are always underdone but the amounts Friday through Friday night are really low. The combination of lowering inversion, decreasing moisture and lack of QPF from models brings some uncertainty to the forecast and thereforewill continue with watch. Persistent flow and a very cold airmass are the positives for significant snowfall. Later shifts may upgrade to warning and advisories may be needed for Cortland, Chenango and Otsego Counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 415 AM EST Update... The extended forecast will be a fairly active period. Saturday will have lingering lake effect (LE) snow showers over central NY and northeast PA. LE snow showers will wind down Sat evening as high pressure briefly builds over the region, but quiet weather will not last long as another system will move across the region Sunday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that Sun and Mon will have widespread snow showers across the region. Tuesday and Wednesday LE snow showers will likely develop behind the mentioned system as a potent uppr lvl low parks over Quebec. And Since the low if forecast to remain stationary over eastern Canada Thursday, there will be a chance for snow showers as well on Thursday. Temps will remain slightly at or below the seasonal average during the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very complex forecast continues. Showers consisting of a wintry mix is still moving through the area this morning and a wide range of flight conditions are prevailing across central NY and northeast PA. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate through 12Z Wed to fuel alternate. Flight conditions are forecast to slowly improve Wed morning and eventually become VFR by 21Z for a brief period before falling back to MVFR to all sites except for KAVP as lake effect showers re-develop over the region. Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then become W/NW around 6-12 knots. OUTLOOK... Wednesday night to Thursday...Possible restrictions in lower ceilings and scattered rain/snow showers, especially KSYR and KRME. Friday-Saturday...Restrictions likely at KSYR and KRME in lake- effect snow, with possible restrictions in snow showers/flurries down to KELM, KITH, and KBGM. KAVP should be mainly VFR. Sunday...Although residual restrictive conditions are possible at KSYR and KRME, a general improvement to VFR is foreseen at this early juncture. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night for NYZ017-018-036-037. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ009. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...KAH

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