Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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206 FXUS61 KBGM 041048 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 648 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 4 AM UPDATE... EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN PA. IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL. WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY, AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 425 AM UPDATE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT- WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES). THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW SUPERBLEND. PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RESTRICTIONS. FOR KBGM/KELM, EXPECT VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH KBGM REMAINING MAINLY IN IFR RIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE KELM SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAVP, GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. THE THREE NORTHERN SITES, KITH/KSYR/KRME, WILL ALSO BE MAINLY MVFR RIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO CIGS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...PCF

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