Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 241452 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 952 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring rain to northeast Pennsylvania this afternoon. Tonight and Sunday low pressure moving from the mid west to eastern Canada will bring a period of rain to the entire region later tonight through Sunday morning. A dry and mild period of weather is expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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10 am update... The current forecast is in fairly good shape. We just modified temperature, POP, and weather grids slightly to account for the latest trends. Regional radar loops late this morning showed another area of rain quickly moving into NEPA and the far southern tier of CNY. With a long stream of moisture evident in the broad SW flow aloft, along with embedded short waves, we expect periods of rain to continue across these areas this afternoon. Fortunately, earlier batches of moderate-heavy rain upstream across western PA have weakened, so we expect generally light amounts. An influx of slightly drier air in the boundary layer has made it into our northern zones this morning, and thus we expect mainly dry conditions across the northern Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, and southern Tug Hill regions this afternoon. With temperatures safely above freezing area-wide, only plan rain is anticipated. By later this afternoon, we expect highs to range from the upper 30s across far northern parts of the forecast area, to the low-mid 40s across NY`s southern tier and NEPA. Previous discussion... Issued a winter weather advisory for freezing rain in northern Oneida County late tonight into Sunday morning. A leading mid level short wave will move through northern Pennsylvania this afternoon and spread light rain across much of northeast Pennsylvania. Measurable precipitation will most likely remain just south of the border through the daylight hours. For the rest of central New York, low level moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion will make for mostly cloudy skies. Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s. Tonight through Sunday...Low pressure in the mid west will lift northeast to Lake Superior by Sunday morning then to James Bay by evening. A significant mid level short wave combined with a warm frontal boundary moving through the region will spread rain across northeast Pennsylvania/southern tier during the evening hours and the rest of central New York after midnight. Models continue to indicate the potential for freezing rain from northern Oneida county south through the western Catskills. The NAM model soundings show more low level cold air than the GFS. Issued a winter weather advisory for northern Oneida County where confidence is highest for icing. Included mention of patchy freezing rain from the Mohawk Valley to western Catskills in the HWO. By mid morning Sunday surface temperatures will be well above freezing ending the threat for freezing rain. The rain will pull east of the area rather quickly during the late morning and early afternoon hours as the trailing surface occlusion moves through. In the warm sector high temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the Finger Lakes region to mid 40s in the western Catskills. Total rainfall will generally fall between .75"-1" with locally higher amounts in upslope areas under southeast flow. At this time the potential for significant flooding looks unlikely but will continue to monitor closely and mention in HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 215 AM update... This period dominated by high pressure and dry air that moves in Sunday night and continues into Tuesday night. The high moves from the lower Ohio Valley east and expanding as it reaches the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Again very mild with above normal temperatures due to a broad ridge off the east coast. Highs from the mid 40s to the lower 50s both days. Lows mostly in the 30s but coldest Tuesday morning with lows mid 20 to around 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 215 am update... Unsettled period but much uncertainty. Starts out mild with the return flow from the high pressure pumping warm air northeast. An initial slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon as a surface low and short wave move across southeast Canada. A weak trailing front drops through the region with a very little moisture and lift. Most likely will remain dry Wednesday and maybe Wednesday night. Better precipitation chances for Thursday and Friday. Models starting to come together on a scenario. Low pressure moves out of the southern plains at the base of a large upper level trough. This will bring ample moisture northeast ahead of it into the area Thursday. The surface low and trough move through Thursday night then slow Friday into Saturday off the coast as a nor`easter on the Euro and GFS. The Canadian keeps the system moving so dry Saturday. Precipitation will be mostly rain to start probably changing to snow Thursday night and Friday (into Saturday) as cold air drops south into the area. Highs in the 50s Wednesday drop to around 50 Thursday then into the lower 40s Friday. Lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low level moisture trapped under an inversion will keep primarily Alternate Required/IFR conditions over the terminals through mid morning. At KITH/KBGM/KAVP, conditions will fluctuate near Airport Min through 14Z. Slow improvement will continue through the morning hours with MVFR/VFR expected at all sites by early afternoon. A mid level short wave will spread rain across the KAVP terminal late this afternoon with Alternate Required conditions likely. Conditions will deteriorate at all locations overnight into Alternate Required/IFR as widespread rain moves into the region. Northwest winds around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable late this afternoon then southeast overnight at 8-12 knots with gusts near 20 knots at KRME/KITH/KBGM. Outlook... Sunday...MVFR or IFR restrictions in rain. Monday-Wednesday....Generally VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...RRM

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