Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 021549 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM EST UPDATE... LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z. XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA. CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED. FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE NGT. AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHWRS. FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE SRN CATSKILLS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 PM EST UPDATE... CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE... LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO KEPT 20 POPS. TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR. LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED. THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...HEDEN

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