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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
822 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW PLAN, SO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. MINS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 31 TO 36 DEGREES. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM.

4 PM UPDATE...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY
EAST. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT
TIMES...MAKING FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT
BGM. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING
AND END TO THE PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF
DRY AIR GETS IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN
ZONES...BRINGING THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL
BE THE WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC
THRU THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY
FOR STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER
VLYS COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.

MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS
EXISTS OVER THE TERMINALS. THROUGH 03Z, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KITH. LATER TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR
CATEGORY. ON SATURDAY, STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE AROUND 4K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTY
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM