Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281432 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S). PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM

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