Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 021756 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES CLOSER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 310 AM UPDATE... ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA. WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...KAH

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