Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBGM 211927 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 227 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY TODAY. ON SUNDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS MAKING FOR A BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. MAXES WILL BE AROUND 50. CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ MADE. THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING DRYER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT OVER CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WILL AID THE CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING`S SREF`S INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST PA. BASED ON THIS HAVE EDGED POPS UP FROM LOW CHC TO HIGH CHC DURING THAT PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT. THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. AT KSYR/KELM/KAVP, CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3,500 FT THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN LIKELY BTW 08Z-12Z. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY OR LIGHT NNE. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR. MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR. THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EMH/RRM NEAR TERM...EMH/RRM SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM
