Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 010039 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 839 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 830 PM UPDATE...H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST. CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN LOWERING POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD. 300 PM UPDATE... ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 300 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT- MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT. FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG. THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON WED. OUTLOOK... WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA WED AFTN. FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA. SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...

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