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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 281432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH
WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN
SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR
500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN
DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH
18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE
ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF
SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA.
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS
MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND
INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER
NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH
MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED
AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF
THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED
TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY
POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR
EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM