Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 221850 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1 PM UPDATE... WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES UNTIL AFT 06Z. THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG. MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM UPDATE... STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50. UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE. HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE M50S ON FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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250 PM EDT UPDATE... CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND WED.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES. SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVF NEAR TERM...PVF SHORT TERM...PVF LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...KAH

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