Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 271915 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A passing cold front, will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially west of Interstate 81. Friday looks rain-free and warm, under the influence of weak high pressure. Over the weekend, although it won`t be a complete washout, some showers should return, as a frontal boundary wavers over our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Lower stratus clouds have dissipated across the area this afternoon allowing for some sunshine and temperature climbing well into the 70s in most areas with some lower 80s over the lake plain where south-southeast is flow is downsloping off of higher terrain to the south. Dew points have risen into upper 50s and lower 60s and mixed layer CAPE values are up around 500 J/kg. Low level flow remains backed from the southeast resulting in anticyclonically curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km shear values increasing to around 20 kts. Main concern today will be the impact of a cold front approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. The upper support associated with this front is forecast to remain mostly north and west of our area this evening with 500 mb height falls only around 30-50 m. However low-level convergence along the front looks pretty strong and we are expecting a band of showers with scattered thunderstorms along or just ahead of the front as it passes across the area. A ribbon of precipitable water values over 1.5 inches will accompany MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg with the passage of the front along with a band of 30-35 kt low-level shear. High resolution models are showing a band of showers with some embedded storms this evening, strongest over the Finger Lakes then weakening and lifting north as they approach the I-81 corridor. The combination of convection and strong low- level wind shear will result in a few storms probably approaching severe limits with gusty winds and small hail, and in fact a few severe storms and even an isolated small torando cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level wind field. The storms will be east of the area by around midnight with some clearing overnight. Friday will be a quiet day with dryer air building in behind the front. Dew points will fall through the 40s and temperatures will recover back into the 70s to near 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 245 pm update... Friday night, the proximity of short-wave energy aloft in the broad SW flow pattern, along with the approach of a surface boundary in the pre-dawn hours, will bring the chance of showers back into the region. The best chance for shower activity should be after midnight, with the evening hours expected to be mainly dry. On Saturday, the above mentioned front should slide southward across CNY/NEPA, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of thunder will be over NY`s southern tier and NEPA. Saturday night-Sunday, the just referenced surface boundary is expected to stall out somewhere near the southern border of PA, before coming back north again as a warm front by later Sunday. The continued passage of short-energy in the mid-levels, along with the resurgence of warm advection by late Sunday, will probably keep at least some showers in the vicinity, with thunder again possible with daytime heating by Sunday afternoon. Highs should range from the upper 60s-upper 70s both Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 250 pm update... Hit and miss showers are expected Sunday night, within a warm advection regime. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Monday afternoon and evening, ahead of a fairly strong cold front. If adequate destabilization can develop Monday, some stronger storms are not out of the question, given a healthy low-level wind field. Temperatures Monday afternoon should be back into the 70s. Tuesday-Wednesday look cooler, post frontal passage. Some lingering light showers are possible, with an upper trough in the vicinity, but overall things look drier this period. Highs mainly in the 60s Tuesday, should drop mostly into the 50s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Stratus deck has lifted and moved east of the area early this afternoon. This will set the stage for a mostly sunny afternoon with just some high clouds and VFR conditions through 6 pm. A line of showers with scattered thunderstorms will move across the area from west to east between 7 pm and 11 pm this evening with periods of MVFR conditions and perhaps some brief IFR restrictions in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The showers will be east of the area by midnight with bkn clouds expected overnight and areas of MVFR conditions. Conditions will improve to VFR by late morning Friday. Winds will be southwest to southeast at 10 to 20 kts this afternoon into this evening. Gusty winds may accompany scattered thunderstorms this evening, then winds will shift to west at 5 to 10 kts late tonight and continue on Friday. Outlook... Friday afternoon and Friday night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Monday...Although VFR is likely the majority of the time, rounds of showers or thunderstorms could bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...KAH/MSE

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