Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 161418 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS. BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE. PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED NGT AND THU MORNING. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE TO ONEIDA COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DGM

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