Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 232353 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 753 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A fast moving disturbance will bring rain showers to most of the region overnight. The majority of the upcoming week looks chilly, with daily highs only in the forties to lower fifties. A few light lake effect rain or snow showers are possible over central New York later Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is foreseen for the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Local radars continue to show precipitation aloft increasing over Western NY, but surface obs show to find anything steady you have to go back to lower Michigan. These showers are ahead of an upper level disturbance just northwest of Detroit. As this feature tracks southeast, hi resolution models continue to support our going forecast of a rapid increase in precip chances especially between 02Z and 06Z over our area. The new runs have come in slightly farther north with the precipitation bullseye but its still roughly along the NY/PA border overnight, with another small axis over Central NY. Overall forecast in good shape with minor cosmetic adjustments. While a few showers may linger into early Monday morning I did increase the gap in between this departing rain, and lake effect rains developing later Monday afternoon. The previous AFD is below. Bkn cloud deck is persisting across central NY this afternoon in an area of broad low-level convergence with some lake enhancement. Latest high resolution models continue to show that showers may break out in this convergence zone over Lake Ontario eastward toward the Mohawk valley late this afternoon or early this afternoon ahead of a short wave system tracking southeast from the Great Lakes. The main rain associated with this feature is forecast to track across southern NY and northern Pa later this evening into the early morning hours on Monday. NAM/GFS/Canadian GEM and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement showing the axis of heaviest precipitation, generally near or just a little over 0.25 inches, near or just south of the NY/Pa state line. Model differences are not large enough to significantly impact the forecast. We are going with chance pops for showers east- southeast of Lake Ontario early this evening, then likely pops for rain showers over much of the area late tonight through about 08z with the best chance for rain being over northern Pa and far southern NY. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this wave will be east of the area by daybreak Monday. Monday will feature a chilly northwesterly flow with scattered light showers developing southeast of Lake Ontario as 850 mb temperatures fall to around -2 to -4 by late in the day, resulting in a lake/850 mb temperature differential of around -16 by 00z Tuesday. The Canadian GEM model has some fairly healthy looking bands developing southeast of the Lake during the afternoon Monday, while the other models appear to be weaker and more disorganized with this precipitation through the day Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 pm update...A chilly, cyclonic flow pattern is still expected to prevail for much of this period, with a slow moving upper vortex over eastern Canada, and ridging back over the Midwest. Given some low-level moisture, 850 mb temperatures near -5C, and deep northwest flow, some lake-effect showers are expected over Central NY Monday night into Tuesday. Where surface temperatures are colder (mostly the higher terrain), some of these showers should be in the form of snow. This will not be a major event, given shallow moisture and marginal boundary layer temperatures, but a coating of snow seems plausible over the higher terrain, from south/east of Syracuse towards the Catskills, later Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Later Tuesday night into Wednesday, lake effect mechanics should gradually break down, as inversion heights lower and warm air advection starts to occur. As a result, we only expect a few lingering sprinkles or flurries later Tuesday. Many areas should see breaks of sunshine by Wednesday. Readings will stay chilly though, as even by Wednesday, we`re looking at highs in the upper 30-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 pm update...Overall, this period will feature progressive flow over the CONUS, with a mean upper-level trough over the eastern states and a mean ridge across the intermountain west. A couple of short-waves are progged to roll across NY/PA (one on Thursday, and then the next by later Saturday). Each should be accompanied by a period of showers. Lingering cold air early Thursday may result in an initial rain/snow mix, if precipitation starts early enough. Chilly highs in the forties late in the work week, should begin to rebound next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR the next few hours, then an area of rain will overspread most of the terminals with MVFR vsbys and cigs between 02Z and 06Z. After 06Z the focus of most of the rain will be across the southern terminals with continued MVFR restrictions. Localized IFR possible and most likely at the elevated sites of KITH and KBGM but can`t be ruled out at KELM. Improvement to VFR by mid Monday morning. A cool northwest flow of air Monday will keep BKN cigs around 4,000 feet with gusty west-northwest winds by midday. Some brief MVFR cigs possible Monday afternoon in the favored downwind areas of KITH and KBGM. OUTLOOK... Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday/Friday...MVFR possible in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...Heden/MSE SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...Heden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.