Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 211420 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1020 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1015 AM UPDATE... HV TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO BRING IN MID-DECK QUICKER THAN PRIOR FCST IN CONJUNCTION WITH WV SKIRTING THRU AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT PCLDY CONDS ACRS THE SRN TIER BY NOON THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST FM THERE, THO WITH WV RMNG ACRS NY STATE EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF NEPA TO RMN MOSUNNY UNTIL EVNG HRS. THESE CLDS WL HV LITTLE BEARING ON TEMP RISE TDA WITH KSYR ALREADY AT 61F AS OF 14Z, WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LWR 70S. NO CHGS NEEDED TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES. PREV DISCO BLO... 630 AM UPDATE... ATTEMPTED RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAINLY CLEAR SKY...COMPETED WITH FAIRLY ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THE LAST FEW HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUCH THAT ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS STAYED FAIRLY MIXED...THUS NOT AS COLD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS INDEED REALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO THERE IS CURRENTLY A PRETTY BIG RIDGE-TO- VALLEY SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES...AND FLATTER TERRAIN VERSUS HILLY. MONTICELLO AT 6 AM IS ONLY 30 DEGREES...ELMIRA 35 DEGREES...AND SIDNEY NORWICH AND CORTLAND ALSO INTO THE 30S...YET PENN YAN IS 50 DEGREES AND MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 40S INCLUDING SYRACUSE AT 47. THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH SUN FILTERED BY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACTUALLY RELAXES...RESULTING IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASING TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THUS LIGHT WINDS TODAY EVEN WHERE FULL MIXING OCCURS. THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT...PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. GFS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN UPPER WAVE AND APPROACHING FRONT...AND RESULTANT QPF...IN AHEAD OF 12Z TUESDAY. I HAVE SIDED WITH CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS...AND THUS KEEP TONIGHT DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF SYR-ITH-ELM LINE VERY LATE. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WAIT UNTIL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE, PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS. MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z TUE...THEN SOME THICKENING OF THOSE HIGH CLOUDS 00Z-12Z TUE AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM YET STILL MAINLY AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KFT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...ONLY TO REVERT BACK TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TUE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR TERMINALS WILL WAIT FOR DURING THE DAY TUE. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. WED NGT-THU...VFR. LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... 415 AM UPDATE... AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...MDP FIRE WEATHER...

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