Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 020245 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1040 PM UPDATE... FINAL VESTIGES OF SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES ARE FINALLY TAPERING OFF, AND SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING IN DRY AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S, SO WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND PLENTY OF SOGGY TERRAIN, I EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE SOMETIME BETWEEN 7Z AND 9Z. OVERNIGHT PROJECTED MINS LOOK GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATED AT 615 PM... WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER AT 6 PM RADAR WAS STILL INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SENECA AND AUBURN. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES SOUTHEAST TOWARD CORTLAND AND POSSIBLY CHENANGO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BHD THE COLD FNT WILL TRIGGER SOME ISLTD SHWRS THIS EVE...ENDING AFTER WE LOSE HTG. OVRNGT...SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A LOW ST DECK DVLPG AFT MDNGT IN THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DECK WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AFT SUNRISE THUR LDG TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WTIH MANY NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S... WTIH LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME ONLY SOME VERY PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME VERY PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY JULY 4TH AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND HAVE GONE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE SCATTERED AND A HOLIDAY WASHOUT IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERAURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS. LIGHT FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL FORM AFTER 7Z, WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AT ELM BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. .OUTLOOK... THU NGT THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. SUN THRU MON...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...DJP

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