Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 210836 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 4 AM UPDATE... BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA. LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW CAUTION STAGE. DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO. SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT. ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING WEAK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM... AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. .OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...KAH

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