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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 082344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...STARTING AS LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL INCLUDE DEVELOPING ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 PM UPDATE...
PRECIP IS TAKING QUITE AWHILE TO MV INTO FA AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS
WAY THRU PA. ACRS NEPA, OBS ARE STILL REPORTING CIGS RANGING FM
6-10KFT AND HIGHER ACRS CNTRL NY. 18Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF SHOWING THE
LOWEST 300MB STILL DRY, HELPING TO EVAPORATE QPF AS IT HEADS NWRD.
APPEARS AS THO 18Z GFS BUFKIT SNDGS HV A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW-LVL
DRY AIR WITH BLYR AT KAVP RMNG TOO DRY FOR SNOW THRU 00Z, WHEREAS
NAM, RAP AND ARW SNDGS INDICATING SNOW SHUD HV BEEN FALLING FOR
THE LAST SVRL HRS DOWN ACRS NEPA.

THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVNG WITH CHC LIGHT SNOW IN
NEPA NOT MVG IN FOR ANOTHER FEW HRS, SOMEWHERE BTWN 01Z AND 02Z.
THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH MVG INTO SRN
TIER BY 03Z AND OVRSPRD RMNDR OF THE AREA BY 06Z. QPF AMNTS
EXPECTED TO BE VRY LGT WITH QPF TOTALS THRU MRNG < 0.10 INCHES.

EXPECT SNOW TO CONT ACRS ENTIRE CWA THRU 06Z (A TAD LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) BFR GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
-FZRA/-FZDZ TWD DAYBREAK. EXPECT SNOW TO HANG ON LONGEST OVR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY WHERE COLD AIR WL BE DEEPEST. HAVING SAID ALL THIS
EXPECT JUST 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMS, HIGHEST OVR EXTRM
ERN SXNS FM MOHAWK VLY DOWN THRU WRN CATS. APPEARS LKLY THAT ALL
AREAS WL SEE A GLAZE OF ICE BY MRNG, MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
DRG THE MRNG COMMUTE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

315 PM UPDATE...
DOUBLE LOW SYSTEM...YET WE ARE IN BETWEEN...WITH ONE CENTER BY THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW JERSEY. FORCING
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS YIELDED A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN
SOUTHEAST PA THROUGH NJ...AS ANYONE WATCHING THE PHILADELPHIA
PRO FOOTBALL GAME CAN ATTEST. WE WILL STILL GET A PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH TOP DOWN MOISTENING YIELDING A BATCH OF SNOW THIS
EVENING SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...SHORTLY
AFTER SNOW ARRIVES...SATURATED LAYER BECOMES SHALLOW TO POINT THAT
TEMPERATURES WITHIN IT BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION...SO QUICK SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX OF
LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FORESEEN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD YET AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. IT HAPPENS TO INCLUDE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS...NECESSITATING THE ADVISORY. ONLY
FIGURING ON AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW- SLEET ACCUMULATION /PERHAPS
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN CATSKILLS TO ONEIDA COUNTY/...AND UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...MOST PLACES LESS.

NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SLOWLY CLIMBING FROM UPPER 20S
THROUGH LOW 30S INTO MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING HIGHS OF
MID 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 PM UPDATE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WELL
AS DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY-FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR SOME.

DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. INTO TUESDAY THOUGH...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WHILE INVERSION
WILL RISE TO DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...BEGINNING TO INITIATE BETTER
LAKE RESPONSES. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY ITSELF
WITH WSW FLOW KEEPING LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAINLY NORTH...YET PERHAPS
STILL SKIMMING NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAKE ERIE BAND
MAY ACTUALLY STRETCH WELL EAST INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER
LAKES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS.

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID
510S TO LOWER 520S DECAMETER RANGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY 20S
AREAWIDE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES
DOMINATING THE 3-7 KFT AGL LAYER. PASSING SHORTWAVES THOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE BANDS AROUND AND
ALSO COULD MIS ALIGN WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY CLOSELY IN MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
OF GETTING INVOLVED IN LAKE PROLIFIC ONTARIO SNOW BAND...WHICH
MUCH IF NOT MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM EST UPDATE...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LEANED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE. VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A MUCH
COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... THUS LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS CREEP CLOSER
TOWARDS 32. WITH LARGE DIFFERENCE WITHIN GFS/ECMWF INTO THE
WEEKEND KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TERMINALS ARE ALL PRESENTLY VFR UNDER MID CLDS AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE SW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN E AND S OF
OUR TERMINALS. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 04Z FOR KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH AS LIGHT SNOWS LOWER CIGS
TO MVFR WITH MVFR TO PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN SN INITIALLY. FARTHER N
VFR UNDER LWRG MID DECK THRU 6Z. AFTER 6Z...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE FOR OUR TERMINALS IN SC NY AND NE PA AS CIGS AVERAGE MVFR
WITH IFR SN. PRECIP WILL TURN OVER TO LIGHT FZDZ AND PL ACRS
KITH...KBGM...KAVP...KELM BETWEEN 6Z AND 10Z. FARTHER N AT KSYR
AND KRME MVFR LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN MAINLY AFTER 6Z WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO FZDZ OCCURRING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ALL TERMINALS
WILL TRANSITION TO RADZ BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z WITH KRME AND KBGM
HOLDING ON TO FZDZ THE LONGEST. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN MON
AM...CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KBGM/KRME AND KITH WITH MVFR REST
OF TAFS. BY MON PM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
UNDER SC MOST TAFS. KBGM/KRME LIKELY WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIG THRU
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT... CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR AT KBGM/KRME. VFR
REST OF TAFS.

TUE/WED/THU...SCT MVFR SYR/RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
     022>025-044-045-055-056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-036-
     037-046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJN