Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261846 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 246 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure will control the region through Wednesday. Clearing skies tonight with some river valley fog. Dry tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds...next rain chances come Thursday with the aproach of the next system.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Models in great agreement providing strong forecast confidence for the period. Satellite confirms the surface high sitting just off to the west with northwest flow and slightly cooler and drier conditions...diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate to nothing this early evening providing clear sies and light to calm winds. Areas of fog likely to develop in the river valleys with visibility greatly restricted at times...should burn off 9am. Sunny to mostly sunny skies tomorrow through the day with light westerly winds and temps remaining above normal in the mid to upper 80s for most. Few clouds may start to push into the region during the evening from the north with the approach of a weakening front...the night should remain dry with above normal temps overnight in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Models appear in decent agreement in sagging the upper flow southward, which allows a weak surface cold front to move southward from Canada and across our region Thursday. The boundary then lingers over central Pennsylvania Thursday night. This, along with increasing moisture in the column will allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity...mainly focused during the diurnal trends of the day. The Friday-Friday night forecast is very uncertain with models diverging at each run on how to handle the strength and timing of a potential wave developing along the stalled front. GFS has been consistent at suppressing the boundary and forcing a weak low off the mid-Atlantic coast with only the southern portion of the area subject to showers. The 12Z ECMWF appears to have trended this way with both models suggesting the highest chances for rain to be across NEPA. The latest Canadian GEM now suggests a more amplified pattern with a double low scenario, and a chance for widespread showers/thunderstorms across our entire area. At this point, I`m favoring the more suppressed solution with only modest chances for rain over the southern half of the CWA. This idea currently has support from ensemble probabilities which are focused across NEPA and the Catskills. As a result, will run with a blend of guidance...trending the highest rain chances from south to north with very little rain expected in our drought areas which so desperately need it.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Continued model uncertainty lingers through the weekend with GFS/Canadian strengthening high pressure over the area, keeping rain generally to the south...while the ECMWF maintains a more active trof with deeper moisture and higher chances for rain across much of CNY/NEPA on Sunday. We`re going to continue to focus on the best rain chances to be over the southern third of our forecast area which should be the closest proximity to the frontal boundary and any waves that do form upon it. Unsettled conditions should keep temperatures generally near to slightly cooler than normal, although it could turn out being warmer in north central NY over the weekend given thinner cloud cover. Models all do seem to then finally concur that high pressure will build over the region with a return to fair skies and temperatures back above normal on Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions across the entire region with modest west northwest winds through the rest of the evening. Diurnal CU will dissipate close to sunset leaving clear skies and light/nearly calm winds through the mid morning Wednesday. Areas of fog will develop mainly in the river valleys...affecting mainly KELM and KAVP with MVFR or IFR conditions with lower vsbys. VFR after 14-15z with some few diurnal CU possible and light westerly flow. OUTLOOK... Wed to Wed night...mainly VFR. Thu-Sat...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABS NEAR TERM...ABS SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...ABS

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