Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 280826 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 426 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S SUNDAY, AND REMAIN THERE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 3 AM UPDATE... A LARGE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED INTO NY AND PA THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND VALLEY FOG OVER THE AREA NOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW BUT SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS SHOULD FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS WHILE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND WEAK UL TROUGH. TONIGHT SKIES START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THEN CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE NW ZONES LATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 16C. HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE 80S IN THE CITIES AND SW CWA AND UPPER 70S NE RURAL AREAS. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE SUNDAY SHOWERS WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONT. KEPT POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN ONLY IN THE NW TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. DELAYED ONSET UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE INSTABILITY. SUNDAY NIGHT SOME CLEARING AS THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR. NO SHOWERS LATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 420 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. A GREAT STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER COMING TO THE AREA AS THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SUMMER DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF 500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS/GEM HAS A WEAKER TROUGH AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH UNDER UPPER UPPER RIDGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALLOWS IT TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL CAMPS BY UTILIZING MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE (SUPERBLEND) FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE UPSHOT FOR GRIDDED FORECAST IS THAT EACH DAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEPICTED DUE MAINLY TO DIURNAL EFFECTS PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING WHILE IF RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT CONDITIONS STAY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE TWIN TIERS. AT KELM, CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE THROUGH 09Z VARYING FROM MVFR TO IFR THEN AFTER 09Z LOCK IN AROUND AIRPORT MINS. BY 14Z CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT KITH/KBGM, MVFR IN MIST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. REST OF TERMINALS WILL BE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR IS EXPECTED WITH JUST FAIR WEATHER CU TODAY THEN CI THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING W/NW AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT WIDESPREAD. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM

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