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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 080938
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING
IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS
DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP
WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY
MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.

P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE
OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL
WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY.

RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF
SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER.
THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER
WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS
GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR
AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS
INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE.
THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL
SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISC...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL
PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO
THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON
TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY LOW
VFR CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 06Z MVFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.

WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM