Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 301046 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 646 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 AM UPDATE... MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE 80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL VALUES. FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH 00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME FOR ALL NY TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK... SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...PVN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.