Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 300014 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 814 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH AND EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE... HIGH THIN CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ADJUSTED ONSET OF POPS SLOWER BY 1-2 HOURS LATER TONIGHT...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER TOP-DOWN MOISTENING TONIGHT...WAVE PASSAGE REMOVES DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS IT TURNS OUT THAT ALMOST ENTIRE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES. PORTION OF COLUMN WITH BEST OMEGA /LIFT/ WILL ONLY BE MINUS-2 TO MINUS-6 CELSIUS. SO WHILE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY MANAGE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HELP OF UPSLOPING /AND SLIGHTLY THICKER SATURATED LAYER THERE/...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LIGHT COATING OF UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL. REGARDLESS...IT WILL MELT DURING THE DAY WITH LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO CHANGING TO RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. HOWEVER A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH A SHOT OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS IN A MILDER SW FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO DEPICT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. FOR MONDAY, THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC OCCLUSION PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER EXPECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SCENARIOS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NY PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO, AS TEMPS MONDAY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL BECOME MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR MOST AREAS...GENERALLY A LIGHT COATING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH...HEAVIEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA IN THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN. LOWS BY EARLY TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW AND MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE NAM AND GEM GLOBAL TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND BRING THE AREA A SHOT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL TEMPS. IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WERE TO VERIFY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME WE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY. IN ANY EVENT, CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 4OS SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE ECENS MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN. IN GENERAL A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WED NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OFF THE NJ COAST AND A COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST THEN A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND FINALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF FRONTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MINOR. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND 15 KFT AGL ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY SSE TO SSW 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO IFR DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT MVFR CIG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS -SHSN /ONLY BRIEF FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FOR KAVP/. THIS OCCURS AS WAVE PASSES 05Z WEST TO 10Z EAST. AT THIS TIME ONLY FIGURING MVFR RESTRICTIONS...EXCEPT SOME IFR VIS 07Z-10Z FOR KRME DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND THICKER SATURATED LAYER THERE AS WAVE PASSES. ONE OTHER NOTE FOR KRME...LOCALIZED SE WIND AT SURFACE WILL BE IN OPPOSITION TO SW JET AT 40 KTS AROUND 2 KFT AGL...WHICH WILL POSE LLWS CONDITIONS THERE 07Z-12Z. OTHER TERMINALS NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE MEET LLWS THRESHOLDS. BEHIND WAVE 10-15Z...WIND WILL VEER SW TO W AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /GUSTS 22-28 KTS/. LINGERING SPOTTY -SHSN WILL CHANGE TO -SHRA WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR/LOW END VFR. BEST COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS 15Z ONWARD WILL BE KSYR-KRME-KBGM-KITH. .OUTLOOK... MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...OCCASIONAL MINOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. WED/THU...VFR. THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MDP

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