Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 190225 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1025 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise into the 70s this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1015 pm update... With clear skies and light winds, temperatures have fallen quickly into the mid 40s in the valleys. Adjusted hourly temperatures and dropped the min temp another degree. Rest of forecast looks fine. 630 pm update... Lowered min temps a few degrees slightly below guidance. Last several days mins have been below guidance while highs have been above. This due to the dry air mass and ground. Few other changes. 100 PM update... Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild through Thursday night. A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast area with the cold front, which is expected to knock temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging builds back in behind Thursday`s front bringing dry and warmer air back into the region. 850 mb temps and 500 mb heights are already well above normal again by 00Z Saturday. The ridge moves little through the short term, and actually strengthens a bit ahead of the developing plains trough. So, expect Friday to both be unseasonably warm and dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change for Sunday as ridge holds tight ahead of the approaching wave. Monday will be warm again but clouds should increase as ridge line moves east and moisture increases from the south. Slow moving but very strong cold front enters the area on Tuesday as a surface low races northward across the eastern lakes. Expect showers to break out from west to east with colder air moving in by the end of the day. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 730 pm update... VFR conditions for the next few days. Mainly clear skies into Thursday afternoon then some mid and high clouds in NY. River valley fog at ELM looks unlikely again late tonight. Boundary level winds at 20 to 30 kts will keep it mixed while ground had continued to dry out. Tonight east to south winds at 5 kts or less. Thursday south winds at 5 to 10 kts shift to southeast. Outlook... Thursday night to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early morning restrictions in fog at KELM Saturday and Sunday. Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...TAC

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