Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 232313 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 613 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected through Friday, with high pressure along the east coast, as our main weather influence. An approaching cold front, will bring our next chance for rain showers on Saturday. Colder air will filter into the region, for the latter part of the holiday weekend, to bring some lake effect snow showers and flurries. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 615 pm update... No significant changes made to the quiet forecast. 220 pm update... As an upper-level short-wave tracks across CNY/NEPA tonight, variable cloud cover will continue (thickest over our far northern zones in CNY, with generally partly cloudy skies down over NEPA). Marginal moisture supply and some lake enhancement via a low-level westerly flow, could bring some light snow showers or flurries down into the southern Tug Hill region. Elsewhere, it should remain dry. Lows by daybreak should range from the mid 20s-lower 30s. Friday into Friday evening, a fairly deep SW flow develops, leading to strong low-level warm advection. Any residual cloud cover early Friday across portions of CNY should quickly dissipate, leading to a generally sunny and mild day. Highs Friday afternoon should climb well into the 40s, with a few normally warmer spots in the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario plain regions approaching 50 degrees. Friday night, moisture will gradually increase from NW-SE, well in advance of an approaching cold front in the Ohio Valley and trailing upper-level trough. This should lead to thickening clouds over time. It`s possible that a few showers could sneak into the western Finger Lakes region towards daybreak Saturday, although it seems that most of the precipitation will hold off until during the day Saturday. Given continued warm advection, temperatures will not fall much during the night, generally staying above the freezing mark. As a result, any light showers that do develop prior to daybreak, should be in the form of rain. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cyclone tracking through Ontario Province will pull warm and moist air into NY and PA on Saturday. Rain showers will overspread the region through the daytime hours, though the ECMWF in particular has pulled back on the QPF and slowed the timing. Maximum temperatures Saturday are progged in the middle-40s, but there is upside to these readings if the precipitation holds off longer than anticipated. Much cooler air will pour down from Canada behind the cold front, setting off lake effect snow showers late Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue Sunday into early Monday, despite temperatures aloft not being particularly cold and the boundary layer remaining dry. Light snowfall amounts are forecast. Ridging aloft will bring milder temperatures for Monday through late Tuesday. A storm system well north into Ontario will drag another cold front across NY/PA on Wednesday with rain showers changing over to a mix of ran and snow showers Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected through 00Z Sat. Brief MVFR cigs at KSYR and KITH this evening and a brief period of MVFR ceilings may impact KRME early Friday morning. Surface winds will stay near or below 5 kt through tonight, with winds picking up significantly on Friday from the S-SW. Gusts of 20-25 kt are possible by midday. Outlook... Friday night...VFR. Saturday...Possible restrictions in rain showers. Saturday night into Monday...Lake effect snow showers likely causing at least some restrictions, mainly KSYR and KRME. Most of Monday and Tuesday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...BJT/MLJ SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...BJT/MLJ

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