Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281538 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler weather will follow the front through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s. The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area, across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor, from mid-afternoon til early evening. Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this afternoon/evening. Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front was moving through western New York as the associated upper level trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes. As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around 70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50 inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday rising to around 80 on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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11 am update... For this period mostly dry with an upper level trough over the northeast US and high pressure at the surface. Storm track Midwest to the middle Atlantic. Temperatures near or slightly below normal. Friday night the slow moving trough is over the area so a chance of showers all night and maybe an evening thunderstorm. The trough moves slowly east over the weekend. Maybe some showers Tuesday night on with more of a zonal flow aloft and warm front at the surface.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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11 am update... VFR has returned. Still expecting thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. One now in Oneida east of KRME. Timing of thunderstorms decent and covered by TEMPO mvfr. previous discussion... A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP this afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z and 23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop near or just southeast of these terminals (17Z- 21Z). While gusty winds and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and duration will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used or leaving out a mention of thunderstorms all together. VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM. OUTLOOK... Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM. Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible. Sat...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...Heden

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