Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 211335 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 935 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be strong. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...Made adjustments to the timing and coverage of the weakening showers over the central southerntier. Short term models show them drying out as they adavance to near the I81 corridor. Later in the day, some convection possible as well, mainly over NEPA. Adjusted cloud cover as well, as some areas may now have trouble seeing the eclipse. Previous discussion continues below. Surface high pressure off Delmarva will give the region a southwest flow of warm air and increasingly humid air. A combination of diurnal instability and a mid level short wave in zonal flow will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms over northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier from late this morning through the afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny across the northern forecast area and partly sunny from the southern tier south. Viewing the eclipse across the twin tiers may be challenging due to cloud cover and convection. Highs will range in the lower to middle 80s. Tonight will be dry after lingering convection dissipates by early evening. Conditions will be mild with lows ranging from 65 to 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure will track from the western Great Lakes into southern Quebec and push a strong cold front through the area between 21Z-03Z. Conditions still look favorable for severe weather as models indicate surface based CAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/KG, deep layer shear of 40-45 knots, strong mid level flow, significant low level helicity and strong frontal forcing. The only limiting factor continues to be the mid level lapse rates. For now will mention gusty winds and heavy rain with the thunderstorms during the mid afternoon and early evening period. Will advertise categorical to likely pops with frontal passage. The potentially significant convection will move through the area by late evening with much of the activity coming to an end after midnight. Highs on Tuesday will range in the middle to upper 80s. Lows Tuesday night will range in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Late this week through the weekend will be dominated by a large-scale trough across eastern North America. The result will be mostly dry conditions with temperatures below normal for late August. A weak short wave may move through the area in northwest flow on Thursday bringing a small chance for some afternoon showers mainly over upstate NY and have raised pops to 20 to 30 percent for that area late Thursday, otherwise pops will be lower than 20 percent. The cool dry pattern appears to hold through the weekend and may even be re-inforced early next week. 320 PM EDT Update... Updated forecast with new WPC guidance... High pressure is expected to move into the region and is expected to remain over the area for the remainder of the forecast period. High pressure will result in dry weather below seasonal temps. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KELM, valley fog with conditions near airport minimums will lift by 13Z. A mid level short wave will increase cloud cover late this morning through the afternoon across the southern terminals with sct/bkn conditions around 5K feet at KRME/KSYR just scattered clouds. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible but not included in TAF due to limited areal coverage. Overnight, just some mid/high level clouds with MVFR conditions in fog possible primarily in the southern terminals after 09Z. Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5-10 knots then light and variable again overnight. Outlook... Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday/Thursday/Friday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...RRM

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