Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 301059 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 659 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 330 AM UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM UPDATE... MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY, AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT MAKE IT PAST THE 50S. A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY WX FOR APRIL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN. OUTLOOK... SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY. TUE...VFR. WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DGM/MDP AVIATION...MDP

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