Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011046 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. 3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 415 AM UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES /PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/. SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 415 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP/TAC AVIATION...PCF

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