Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 230133 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 933 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tonight through Friday night more showers and thunderstorms are possible a front passes through the area. Friday into Friday evening locally heavy rain is possible. Seasonal temperatures are expected into the weekend with decreasing chances for precipitation.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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930 PM EDT Update... A few light rain showers are present across the northern portions of the county warning area (CWA), but most of the region it has been a fairly pleasant evening. SW flow aloft will strengthen over the region tonight. This will induce WAA over the area and increase cloud coverage and the chance for precip. The HRRR seems to have a good understanding on precip coverage tonight, and it hints at a lull in activity over the region through at least 06Z. Decided to lower pops overnight to match this trend. The chance for precip attm looks to dramatically increase across the region from the SW closer to 12Z. This is when the dynamic support aloft starts to impact our region. Adjusted temps to match current obs, but overall the temp forecast is in great shape. For more information on the previous forecast, please read the previous forecast discussion below. Previous forecast discussion... Tonight...An increasingly moist southwest flow will develop overnight with PWATs rising to around 1.50". Surface low pressure in the western Great Lakes will push a warm front through the region although the forcing with this feature is fairly weak. Best moisture and lift continues to be in the far northern forecast area where we will keep high chance pops later tonight with slight chance across the central and southern forecast area. Due to mid level instability will keep the mention of thunder. It will be mild and increasingly muggy as dew points rise and lows range from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Friday/Friday night...A deep southwest flow of increasing moisture from Tropical Depression Cindy will bring PWATs to around 2 inches by afternoon. Models have slowed the progress of the surface cold front with passage now expected Friday evening. Model soundings show tall/skinny CAPE and warm cloud layer around 11k-12k feet. These are indications of potentially very heavy rainfall with any convection. Due to a really juicy atmosphere with plenty of clouds the amount of destabilzation that occurs tomorrow is a big question mark. Low level shear still looks fairly good to support severe weather but many elements are lacking. There still is the threat for isolated severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening but more concerning is the heavy rainfall threat. Later shifts may need to issue a flash flood watch if the event looks more certain. Will continue with likely pops from Friday afternoon into Friday evening then lower pops after midnight as this boundary drops through. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints around 70 making it feel rather muggy. Friday night temperatures cool off in the lower to middle 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Remains of T.S. Cindy will pass just south of the area early Saturday and may bring a few showers to NEPA. Later in the day, surface trof and mid level short wave will drop into the area from the Great Lakes resulting in scattered afternoon showers. Weak surface ridging builds in for Saturday night and Sunday, but yet another mid level wave passes through later in the day some additional showers are possible, especially during the peak heating hours with the cold pool aloft.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather continues into the long term with a persistent upper low over the central Great Lakes creating instability, especially during the afternoon hours. Solution to the problem is still up in the air (pun intended) as the GFS and EURO come to different conclusions on the eventual disposition of the low. The latest GFS develops a slow moving closed low that will linger somewhere in the NY and New England area through and beyond the period. EURO is more progressive and would sweep the low through as a deep but open wave by Wednesday. In any event, it looks as though cool and unsettled weather with mainly afternoon showers will continue through the long term. Temperatures will average below normal, especially during the daylight hours. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The forecast calls for continued VFR conditions into Friday morning, as a high-deck slowly lowers to a mid-deck. Winds will be light overnight. Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will develop on Friday. As the atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibilities will become more prominent. Southwest winds will gust to 20 knots Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night...Showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening, with associated restrictions. Saturday - Monday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief restriction possible. Tuesday...Convection with restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DJP

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