Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 250140 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 940 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tonight through Tuesday, light rain is moving north into the region, as a weak storm center tracks up the eastern seaboard. A few showers may linger into Wednesday morning, before drier conditions develop by afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
930 pm update... Minor changes to closer to current. Some light rain and sprinkles has moved into Luzerne County pushing temps down under cloudy skies. Clouds have moved well north into NY. Winds are staying on the light side with slowly falling temperatures. Upped pops in the morning for the Finger Lakes to line up with Buffalo and models. previous discussion... Visible satellite imagery shows thicker higher clouds streaming northeast across parts of northeast PA and southeast NY with thinner cirrus farther north reaching the southern tier. GOES-16 imagery does show this higher thicker cloud cover slowly moving north and in time as per model data will reach the PA-Ny border by around 03z and northern NY by 09-12z. These higher clouds were advancing northward in response to a well-developing upper level low over Ga which will track east- northeast tonight and Tuesday reaching the eastern NC coast. Warm and moisture adevections will increase tonight over northeast PA and central NY and spread light precipitation northward. The low-levels were very dry at first so we expect the onset of the rain will be delayed by a few hours vs radar reflectivity projections. The first batch of light rain reaches into northeast PA between 03z-06z. This precipitation will be light initially and blossoms more between 12z and 15z as it reaches into northern NY as a short wave from the central Plains intercepts it and enhances the lift. The next more significant round of steady rain reaches northeast PA by around 12-15z Tuesday and 15-18z across the rest of central NY. The rain will taper to showers from west to east late in the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 245 pm update... Tuesday night into Wednesday, the coastal system will weaken and drift out to sea. As a result, lingering showers will gradually diminish from west-east. Residual lower cloudiness into Wednesday morning, should begin to break up by late morning-early afternoon, particularly west of the Interstate 81 corridor. Since the above mentioned disturbance has no real cool air associated with it, Wednesday afternoon will be mild, with highs ranging from the lower 60s over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills, to around 70 degrees for our Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario plain counties. Wednesday night should be rain-free, as we reside under a narrow ridge axis, in between the departing coastal cyclone, and a very slowly advancing cold front over the Ohio Valley. Given a weak S-SE flow in the boundary layer, some of our models are bringing a marine-type cloud layer into at least parts of NEPA and the southern tier of NY late Wednesday night. Details are still sketchy this far out, so we`ll have to wait on this for a better consensus. For now, we`ll opt for partly-mostly cloudy skies in far eastern areas, and clear-partly cloudy skies farther west, with mild overnight lows ranging in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 pm update... On the large-scale, a trough will amplify over the middle of the country this period, while an upper ridge slowly builds over the western Atlantic. A resultant broad SW flow aloft across CNY/NEPA will bring generally warmer temperatures, along with perhaps unsettled conditions, as mid-level short-waves are likely to be embedded. As for the daily sensible weather, Thursday looks rain-free and warm, as the cold front in the previous section remains well off to the west during the daylight hours. Thursday night into Friday, the above mentioned cold front will track across CNY/NEPA while weakening. At least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected, though. Next weekend, the position of a W-E oriented surface boundary will be key to our weather, with very warm temperatures likely south of the front, and cooler, more showery conditions likely to the north of it. For now, due to uncertainty, we`ve retained a chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday, with thunderstorms also possible by Sunday. As for temperatures, we`ll go with daily highs in the 60s across our far northern areas (southern Tug Hill and Mohawk Valley zones), with upper 70s-lower 80s down over NEPA. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR/unrestricted conditions will continue this evening and into the overnight as high and then middle level clouds overspread the region. A low approaching from the south will slowly lower our ceilings later tonight and through the day Tuesday. The light easterly wind will eventually become east to southeast around 10 knots tonight and then 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots Tuesday morning as the low moves north. Rain will break out ahead of the low tomorrow, with a few MVFR visibility restrictions possible late in the period. Outlook... Tuesday night...Restrictions possible, as showers move across portions of the region. Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR, other than a brief restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP. Thursday...VFR. Friday-Saturday...Restrictions possible, with at least scattered showers anticipated along with a chance of thunder.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ/TAC NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...DGM/DJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.