Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 300815 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 415 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH MUCH OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORCING IT. OVER CENTRAL NY/NE PA SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SARANAC LAKE IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WAS DOWN TO 39 DEGREES AT 08Z. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC OVER THE FAR SE FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF TRW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY FRIDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED POPS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRW. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE AND COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW. LATER IN THE DAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME RANGES. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING DECK OF MID CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT MOVING IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z AT KELM WHERE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY. WITH CURRENT TEMPS NEAR YESTERDAY`S LOWEST DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP), IFR VSBYS ARE LIKLEY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY NOW MAKE IT INTO KELM THIS MORNING AND IF THEY DO, WHAT IMPACT WILL THEY HAVE. BASED ON SUCH PRIME CONDITIONS NOW FOR FOG FELT IT WAS WORTH IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z. WITH THAT SAID I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW THAT CONDITIONS MAY VARY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE 09Z UPDATE IF CONDITIONS MERIT, I CAN MAKE SOME CHANGES INCLUDING LOWERING VSBYS IF FOG IS ABLE TO LOCK IN. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE. WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME IN THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME, I TRIED TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z TODAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT OR NEAR CALM. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...HEDEN

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