Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 192332 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 632 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight followed by slightly cooler but still mild air. For Monday through at least midday Tuesday, high pressure will provide more fair weather and above normal temperatures. A front will pass late Tuesday into Tuesday night with some rain showers, followed by even warmer temperatures Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 630 pm update...Minor adjustments were made to temperature and sky cover forecast for tonight but otherwise forecast on track with no changes needed. 130 pm update... Had to adjust hourly and max temperatures up again. warmest areas such as Elmira, Scranton, and Hazleton around 60 now. Skies cleared late morning and remain that way. Removed pops for drizzle this afternoon. Nearest low clouds and the cold front near St Lawrence River. Fropa slower. Models have lowered pops and qpf for tonight. For tonight, lowered pops to slight chance and reduced the area to the far northeast. Drizzle if it occurs will probably not tick off a hundredth. Unfortunately with the clear skies to start surface temperatures will still fall to around freezing. Rome now in the mid 40s with dewpoints lower 30s. Best chance of any drizzle shortly after midnight now. Small window of time with shallow moisture under 5k feet and weak forcing. Monday the surface high moves over the area in the afternoon with dry and cooler temperatures from western Ontario. Still above normal with highs in the 40s and upper 30s. Skies become clear. Monday night also dry with light winds. The high slows as it moves to the coast. Lows 15 to 25. High clouds move in ahead of the cold front after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 330 PM Update... Frontal system will bring a batch of rain showers late Tuesday afternoon through evening during an otherwise uneventful period with above normal temperatures. Amplified wave is now over Four Corners region out west, after wreaking havoc in Southern California. However, it will gradually weaken while carrying across the lower 48. In fact, the main surface low will eject across the Central to Northern Plains, right into Canada. By the time the occluded front moves into our region late Tuesday, the parent low will be distant in far northern Ontario or perhaps even a piece of Hudson Bay. What is more, is that the air mass behind the front will be of Pacific origin. This will take already mild above normal temperatures of 40s-near 50 Tuesday, to mainly 50s-near 60 Wednesday. Weakening occluding fronts marching all the way across the country often end up delaying their arrival as the event approaches, so do not be surprised if most or all of the rain waits until Tuesday night itself. Chances will be best in Finger Lakes of Central New York but there is at least some chance for a brief window of rain showers areawide. Amounts are not looking that much however; generally one to two tenths of an inch in the northern zones and mainly less than a tenth of an inch from Twin Tiers-Catskills southward. Wednesday looks dry and warm with increasing sunshine. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 PM Update... While more complicated than this, generally speaking a western trough-eastern ridge pattern will be dominant during this period. Southwest flow, with occasional embedded waves, will yield temperatures well above normal. This is particularly the case for Thursday through early in the weekend, when temperatures will run 15-20 degrees warmer than climatology. With this pattern setting up, over time more moisture will be drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico and thus rain chances will become greater as will potential amounts. A smaller wave Thursday could produce lighter showers, but sometime around Friday night-Saturday the GFS-ECMWF-GEMglobal are in agreement on a deeper wetter system moving through. Behind that, temperatures will probably be knocked down back at least closer to normal into Sunday but this is probably only temporary. The overall southwest flow pattern does not appear likely to back down. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 630 pm update... A cold front will move through north to south overnight into early Monday morning bringing a period of low stratus with MVFR cigs expected for central NY sites. The time frame for this will be late evening through most of the night for KSYR/KRME and the predawn hours to shortly after sunrise for the remaining central NY sites. KAVP remains VFR. The low clouds give way to clearing skies with VFR Monday morning. Winds W/NW 5-10 knots overnight shifting to N/WW 5-10 knots for Monday. A few gusts to around 15-20 knots will be possible Monday morning. OUTLOOK... Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Restrictions possible in lower ceilings and light precipitation with cold front. Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. Thursday night and Friday...possible restrictions with warm front and rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...PCF/TAC

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