Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 260539 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 139 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STILL ACROSS ONLY THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTH BUT ONLY LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. 6 PM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON. 330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE. THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE. TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW- LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60 DEGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS. THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE HWO. DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S- LWR 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT- SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING HIGHER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT A MID LVL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER KRME AN KSYR. THIS AFTERNOON... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN TSRA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KITH... KELM... KBGM AND KAVP. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE MVFR VISBYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY THRU THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK... TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...KAH

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