Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 210120 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 920 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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IR SATELLITE SHOWS JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS ADVECTING OVR C NY AND NRN PA AT THIS TIME. RADARS SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SHRA OR JUST VIRGA ACRS SRN ONT INTO NRN NY. THIS ACVTY WAS ASSCTD WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING INTO WRN QUE AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WAS INCREASING UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LEADING TO A JET ENTRANCE REGION CIRC WHICH IN TURN WAS SUPPORTG LIFT AND THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND SOME RADAR RETURNS TO THE N OF THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH AND JUST LEAD TO SOME MORE CIRRUS PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO NC NY OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES MINS WILL DROP TO BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS HIGH CLDS. GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO BEGIN SO NO FLAGS FOR FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. FOR MONDAY...NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CD FRNT PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SPREAD MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACRS NY AND PA DURG THE DAY. SW LL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPR LVL WAVE WILL ADVECT HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN BY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INSOLATION CUD POP SOME SCT CUMULUS UNDER SOME HIGH CLDS. REST C NY AND NE PA WILL SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE IF ANY CU FORMATION. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 230 PM UPDATE... TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE. EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK. WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS. FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 245 PM EDT UPDATE... FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SREAM OVERHEAD MAINLY FOR NY TAFS OVERNIGHT AND MON AM. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THICKER CIRRUS TO NY TAFS WITH SCT CIRRUS TO KAVP. A VFR MID DECK WILL AFFECT KRME AND KSYR AFT 21Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SW 5 TO 10 KNOTS MON. OUTLOOK... MON NGT...VFR. TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. WED NGT-THU...VFR. FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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FOR MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE SOME ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WITH SW WINDS AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVER NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. EVEN SO...MINIMUM RH/S WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 20S PERCENT WHICH IS BELOW THE 30 PCT RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR ALL OF C NY AND NE PA. FINE FUELS REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT IN PA AND NY. IN NY...MONDAY WILL BE THE 6TH DAY SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE. SO THE ONLY THING MISSING FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IN NY AND PA IS THE WINDS ON MONDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 MPH RED FLAG THRESHOLD IN NY AND BELOW THE 20 MPH THRESHOLD FOR PA. WIND GUSTS MOST AREAS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH MON PM. HENCE DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY IN C NY OR NE PA DUE TO LACK OF WIND. FOR TUESDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND HENCE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...DJN FIRE WEATHER...DJN

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