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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 260010
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY CHILLY NIGHTS...WITH A CHANCE FOR FROST OR FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS, AND BLUSTERY DAYS. THE FLOW WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
ALLOWING FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
BACK ITS WAY TO SYR/I-81 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TREND
TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH THE PRECIP SHIELD EASTWARD TO THE
BROOME/DELAWARE COUNTY BORDER BY 6Z. TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LATE DAY HIGHS BEING MADE AS SUN FINALLY ARRIVED
ALONG AND WEST OF I-81.

4 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SHOW LTL MVMT IN THE UPR LOW TNGT AND ACTUALLY BACK
THE PCPN A BIT THIS EVE AS A WEAK UPR WV ROTATES THRU. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP CLDS IN THE AREA AND THE WINDS UP...IN TURN HELPING THE
FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. STILL...IT`S A TOUGH CALL WITH THE WINDS
PRECLUDING FROST IN MOST AREAS. HWVR...WITH TEMPS APRCHG
32F...SOME PARTS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER MAY GET SPOTTY FROST IN THE
SHELTERED VLYS WHERE THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ENUF BLO FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING FOR TNGT. IN
ANY CASE...WORD IS OUT AND MOST SHD BE PROTECTING THEIR PLANTS.

MODELS WERE IN RSNBL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS LDG TO HIER CONFIDENCE.
CNSDRD PUTTING SOME MIXED PCP IN THE FCST BUT SFC TEMPS WHERE THE
PCPN IS FALLING IS VERY MRNGL...PLUS...TEMPS ALOFT REALLY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY FRZN DUE TO THE ISOTHERMAL LYR IN THE PCPN ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LOW FNLY BEGINS TO KICK OUT ON SUN AND ANY LEFTOVER PCPN SHD
EXIT THE CWA EARLY. NW FLOW CONTS BUT WITH MORE SUN...MODIFICATION
OF THE AIR MASS SHD BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SUN. SUN NGT MAY BE A REAL
PRBLM FOR PLANTS WITH THE LGTR WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WILL OF COURSE CONT WITH THE FREEZE WATCH AND XPCT THE UPGRADE TO
A WARNING AS GUID INDICATES A WIDE AREA OF UPR 20S THRU THE HEART
OF THE FCST AREA.

CONTD IMPRVMT MON AFT A CHILLY START AS THE HIGH MVERS OVRHD. TUE
STARTS DRY BUT WILL BECOME CDY AS THE WRM FNT APCHS FROM THE OH
VLY. RAPIDLY BLDG HGTS AND WAA WILL HELP DVLP PCPN DURING TUS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME CONV LATE. FNT WILL MARK THE RETURN OF MUCH WRMR
AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN US FROM WED INTO SATURDAY CAUSING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BUILD GETTING US BACK INTO THE FEEL OF SUMMER INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS THE TRIGGER. DO WE STAY SUPPRESSED OR
DOES A WARM FRONT STALL OVER NORTHERN NY WITH A POSSIBLE NW FLOW
CONVECTIVE PATTERN. USED HPC GRIDS WHICH FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF PLACING THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NY. WARM FRONT PASSED FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE FRONT STALLS IN NORTHERN NY THAN THAT WOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR TRIGGERING STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HENCE A
LITTLE GREATER POP ACROSS THE NORTH. JUST TO NOTE THOUGH...THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA AND INSTEAD ROTATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION AREOUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH UP
ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SOUTHCENTRAL NY IMPLYING THAT THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A GREATER CHANCE. EITHER WAY IT WILL
LIKELY BE HOT AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CUTOFF LOW IN
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING INTO
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT KRME THROUGH 05Z WITH UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS
AROUND 4K FT. AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM/KAVP, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR SCT/BKN 5K FT CLOUDS ALONG WITH BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING BETWEEN 03-05Z. ON SUNDAY SCT/BKN
STRATO CU WILL FORM AROUND 5K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING ON SUNDAY TO
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...VFR. CHANCE TSTMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
     044>046-055>057-062.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...RRM