Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 282050 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 450 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching front will bring a period of showers and a chance for thunderstorms later this evening through midday Monday. A generally unsettled pattern will persist through the week due to the system`s upper level low lingering over the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Tonight/Monday...Surface low pressure currently over southern Michigan will gradually lift northeast into southern Ontario by Monday morning. The surface occlusion associated with this feature will gradually move into the western forecast area Monday morning then wash out. A mid level short wave in advance of this system will cross the region later tonight into Monday morning. Scattered to isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible over the entire region through early evening. Later this evening as forcing increases from west to east widepsread showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the area. By mid morning widespread activity will be confined to area primarily from I81 east then exit the western Catskills by midday. Will continue to mention thunder due to mid level instability. Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs temperatures on Monday will have a fairly large spread from east to west. Since clouds and wet conditions will persist in the east with a cool southeast flow highs will only reach around 60 while in the western forecast area a milder southwest flow with some sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the middle 70s. Monday night...Overnight period will be primarily dry but by late night another mid level wave in southwest flow will bring the chance for showers primarily across central New York. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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430 pm update... On Tuesday, the mid-level short-wave mentioned at the end of the previous section, along with an associated, but weakening surface boundary, is progged to come through CNY/NEPA. As a result, showers and some embedded thunderstorms are likely to track through the region, mainly CNY. Instability remains questionable (model values mainly 500 j/kg or less at this time), with fairly extensive clouds/limited heating, so at this juncture, any thunderstorms look to be non-severe/garden variety in nature. Wind fields are fairly strong, though, so if any future upticks in progged instability occur, stronger storms would have to be considered. For now, we have no mention of such in our hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday night, the above disturbances are expected to track off to the east, with showers diminishing during the night into early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, the next short-wave is expected to rotate eastward through the forecast area, along with another lower-level boundary, bringing at least scattered showers and possible thunder. Temperatures should continue somewhat below seasonal normals for the end of May, with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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445 pm update... The same basic long-wave pattern remains in tact, with troughing/below normal heights over the Great Lakes and northeastern states. Thus, temperatures will stay on the cool side for early June, along with at least some threat of showers most of the time. It appears we may be able to sneak out one dry day Thursday, as surface ridging temporarily builds in behind Wednesday`s systems mentioned above. However, the chances for showers should increase again towards next weekend, as the next surface low, frontal complex, and series of upper-level waves approach.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will continue into the early evening with ceilings around 4K feet. Overnight a mid level wave and approaching surface occlusion will bring showers and restrictions into the terminals. Conditions will lower into the MVFR/Alternate required category overnight as showers spread across the area between 03Z-06Z. At KBGM, IFR category is likely between 08Z-15Z. Toward the end of the TAF period conditions will slowly improve. South/southeast winds at 5-10 knots with gusts on the hilltops overnight becoming south/southwest late in the period. Outlook... Monday afternoon through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and perhaps thunder. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...RRM

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