Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 200000 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 PM UPDATE... A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE. THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. MONDAY... MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 345 PM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT). VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO BE IMPACTED. FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS. .OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MLJ/RRM

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