Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 280703 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 303 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE (925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY. STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD. AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM. AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM. SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA- TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...PVN

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