Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011049 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 649 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 315 AM UPDATE... UL TROF IS PROGRESSING OVER THE FA THIS MORNING WHILE DIFFUSE SFC FRONT HANGS UP TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BASED ON 925MB 12C-13C TEMPS. 830 PM UPDATE... H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST. CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN LOWERING POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG. COMBINATION OF LOW SUN ANGLE AND LONG NIGHTS MAKES THIS TIME OF YEAR ONE OF THE BEST FOR FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD FOG IN NIGHTLY AFTER 6Z. KEPT TO THE IDEA OF A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION, AS THE MODELS ARE STICKING TO THIS PROJECTION. RUNNING LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS VIGOROUS UL TROF SWINGS INTO OHIO VALLEY AND POWERFUL CYCLONE PULLS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THE STORM, SO LIKELY POPS LOOK REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. OVERNIGHT TIMING MINIMIZES THUNDER THREAT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 5C-6C RANGE...MEAGER TO MODEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED BY NAM12 AROUND 4C. BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 30-35 KTS BUT IT APPEARS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT- MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT. FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z WED UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY 15-17Z. IFR IS MOST LIKELY AT KELM...WITH BRIEF PDS OF SUCH ALSO PSBL AT KITH AND KBGM. VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE BY AFTN...WITH CIG BASES LIFTING BY THIS TIME. ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS COULD BE AT PLAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTN...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KBGM AND KAVP...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE UNRESTRICTED...SHOULD THEY EVEN OCCUR. LTR TNT...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DVLP ONCE AGN...MOST PREVALENT IN THE TWIN TIER RVR VLYS. THUS...KELM IS EXPECTED TO DROP AT LEAST BLO ALT MINS. SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO IMPACT KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP IN THE PRE-DAWN PD. OUTLOOK... THU AND FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG/LWR CIGS...ESPECIALLY KELM/KITH/KBGM. FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA. SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...MLJ

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