Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261925 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 325 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring us another foggy night tonight and early Wednesday. later Wednesday, a cold front will push through the area and trigger some scattered showers. Cooler air behind the front will be over the area through the weekend, with partly cloudy skies.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Enough instability to trigger some very isolated showers over the higher elevations of the Catskills into northeast Pennsylvania. However, very limited moisture in the low levels and even drier air aloft is limiting them. Overnight, light winds and fog once again as the we decouple early and the cool air settles in the valleys. For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes through with little support aloft. Some surface based instability available along with low level convergence however the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and overall poor chances for significant convection. In fact, showers may not even make it through the forecast before dissipating. Will keep chance pops for showers but no thunder for the frontal passage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 pm update... This period will be much cooler. The surface front goes through Wednesday night. Thursday will be dry with cold air advection from the north at low and mid levels. High temperatures in the low and mid 60s most with upper 60s southeast valleys such as AVP/MSV. Weak ridge of high pressure builds in Thursday night with clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temps in the low and mid 40s. Friday a digging upper level trough will drop southeast through the Great Lakes. A weak surface low will form with some showers mostly for Friday afternoon and evening but lingering into Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be light. Similar high temperatures Friday with low and mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 pm update... Unsettled but the worst weather stays north. Temperatures at or just above normal. Models in fair agreement. Deep upper level trough over the area Friday night and Saturday with scattered to isolated light showers. Highs Saturday only 55 to 60 with cloudy skies and windy conditions. Saturday night building heights at all levels. High pressure at the surface will drop winds and clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s. Frost possible but much uncertainty on how cold and coverage. This high pressure hangs on into early Tuesday. Temperatures slowly warm to lows in the 40s and highs around 70 Tuesday. More dry weather. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure remains in control bringing daytime VFR and nighttime fog and IFR. Little change is expected in this TAF period. There is a small chance that some afternoon convection could develop over the Catskills, but the chance is small and they should not affect any of the sites. After IFR and LIFR in fog at some stations overnight, VFR returns Wednesday. Winds will remain light Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, but scattered showers/minor restrictions possible Friday-Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...DGM

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