Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011858 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 158 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 9 AM UPDATE... WE`VE TWEAKED THE NEAR-TERM POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE PERSISTENT -SHSN/FLRYS...ASSOCD WITH WEAK LOW-LVL FRNT/CONVERGENCE ZN ACRS ALG THE PA/NY BORDER ATTM. ONLY A COATING OF SNOW...AT MOST...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. MORE SIG SNOWFALL WITH THE INCOMING STORM IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OFF TO OUR W AND SW. SPEAKING OF THE NEXT STORM...THE EVOLUTION OF STEADIER LGT SNOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE RGN FROM SW TO NE LTR THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE`VE KEPT THAT PTN OF THE FCST VERY SIMILAR. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM...AS WELL AS THE 09Z SREF...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR GOING FCST WITH SNOWFALL AMTS....AS WELL AS PSBL PTYP ISSUES IN OUR SRN ZNS EARLY MON. WE AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE TAKING A MORE THOROUGH LOOK AT THINGS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. PREV DISC... AT 445 AM...A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WITH THE LAKE PLAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE. ONCE THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ENTIRE FA BY MID MORNING AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PRECIP FREE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN NE PA. UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID WEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY THEN OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM INCLUDING THE THERMAL PROFILES. IN GENERAL MODEL QPF RANGED FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA TO AROUND AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST PA. UPGRADED THE WATCH IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO WARNING AS QPF TREND HAS INCREASED HERE WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND 7 INCHES LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST (1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR) AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST FROM 03Z-12Z THEN THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FGEN FORCING MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA. GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND 06Z NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SRN LUZERNE/LACKAWANNA/WAYNE/PIKE COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE WITH SOME LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE. IF THE MIX OCCURS IT WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEREFORE ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE NRN CWA. SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE H85 LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THE TREND OF RAISING ACCUMS NORTH AND LOWER SOUTH MAY CONTINUE. IN GENERAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 6 TO 10 NRN CWA, 8 TO 12 CENTRAL AND 8 TO 10 SOUTH WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE. BY LATE MONDAY A COLD NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ARCTIC ARE WILL SPILL BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH AND EAST RANGE FROM -10F TO -18F OVERNIGHT, BORDERLINE FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WE WON`T CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, AS WE DON`T WISH TO DISTRACT FROM THE CURRENT STORM SCENARIO. AFTER A DRY, COLD DAY TUESDAY...INCLUDING SOME WEAK LAKE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS NY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE REAL IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE TO USHER IN ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOR THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER. SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A POWERFUL STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN AVP AND ELM BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z, BGM AND ITH BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z, AND RME AND SYR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM, WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS MVFR AND TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A LONG PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BEFORE THE ENDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... MON...IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW. MON NGT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N. TUE/TUE EVE...VFR. TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DJP

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