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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 101403
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
903 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE POCONOS AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS...AND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...LEAVING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
...UPDATED AT 850 AM...
THINGS GOING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN VA...AND SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFYING OFF THE DE COAST. THE LATEST RUC/INCOMING 12Z NAM
APPEAR TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS EVOLVING
SITUATION...WITH STRONG FORCED ASCENT COMING INTO NORTHEAST
PA/CENTRAL NY FOR THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...THE BEST LIFT BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS SOMEWHAT
FRACTURED AS OF THIS WRITING...HIGHER RETURNS STILL REPRESENT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. WE EXPECT A GENERAL "FILLING IN" OF
THE RADAR SCOPE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BANDING POTENTIAL STILL
GOOD IN THE 15-21Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NORTHEAST PA...SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...AND MAYBE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM PITTSBURGH...WASHINGTON DC...AND BUFFALO...ALL SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THIS ENVIRONMENT PIVOTS NORTHEAST TODAY...THE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOW ELEMENTS/POSSIBLE BANDED STRUCTURES.

BOTTOM LINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT THIS
TIME...GENERALLY A FOOT OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH AS MUCH AS 6-10" INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND ABOUT 3-6" IN OUR NORTHERN/FINGER LAKES ZONES.

THINGS SHOULD STILL WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOST PLACES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS BY MIDNIGHT. HV CONT/D LKLY-CAT POPS OVR ERN
HALF OF CWA THRU 06Z AND WILL LET WSW RIDE THRU THIS TIME. SFC LOW
WL HEAD EAST QUICKLY AFTER THIS TIME...LVG NW FLOW IN ITS WK.

NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT -9 OR -10C THRU 00Z FRIDAY. LK EFFECT WL
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY CHC POPS EXPECTED IN 300-320 DEGREE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NICKEL AND DIME ACCUMS EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY THURSDAY...PERHAPS ADDING UP TO AN INCH OR SO BY THUR AFTN OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS A TAD BLO NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
IT WILL EXTEND A WEAK TROF BACK THROUGH NY STATE. A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST. 300-310 FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE A
BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AND ONONDAGA COUNTY AND INTO THE TWIN TIERS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LOW (1-2C 950-800H), BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH (120 MB)
POINTS TO A BROAD BAND. EXPECT A GENERAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS A WIDE AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FLOW PATTERN THIS
24 HOUR PERIOD. LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS AN INVERSION BUILDS DOWN FROM ALOFT AND LESSENS THE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. RMS SHEAR IS A BIT MORE OPTIMAL, SO WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN KEEPING WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS AND LOW ACCUMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE TO CHANGE FROM THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW VARIES FROM
290 TO 320. LAKE DELTA T`S ARE VERY MARGINAL SO AT THIS POINT ONLY
NUISANCE SNOWS...WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WE DON`T HAVE ANY HUGE PUSHES OF WARM OR
COLD AIR DURING THE PERIOD SO HIGHS EACH DAY WON`T VARY
MUCH...WITH TEMPS NEAR 30.

NEXT SHOT AT SYNOPTIC SNOWS COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE SO CHANCE POPS ARE FINE FOR
NOW. LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS.
THESE BANDS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE AND CEILINGS
TO 300-800 FEET OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT AVP, BGM, ELM, AND ITH.

SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING, AND COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4-3/4SM AT
TIMES FROM AVP TO BGM.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THRU SUN...VFR WITH MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
NYS TERMINALS.
MON...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
TUE...MVR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP