Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 040858 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 358 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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After a quiet and dry day, a system will bring a quick light coating of snow tonight into early Monday. This may make roads slick for the Monday morning rush hour. Unsettled weather will continue through midweek with chances for both rain and snow. A shot of arctic air will arrive late in the week including potential for lake effect snow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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350 AM Update... Main concern this period will be a quick coating of snow tonight into early Monday, which could cause a slick morning commute. For now, drier air is working its way into the area, though a thin layer of moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion as brief high pressure moves into the region. The high early this morning is just to our west, and thus light northwest flow continues to provide lake moisture for those clouds. They will only gradually mix out during the day as the high moves directly overhead, with clouds lingering longest as usual in Central New York. Those that manage to get a window of partial sunshine better enjoy it while they can, because high clouds will already start streaming in this afternoon ahead of the next system; thickening towards sunset. Despite warm air advection aloft, a stable profile with chilly air - underneath clouds much of the time - will prevent temperatures from getting out of the 30s for most of the area. The Wyoming and Delaware valleys of Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY stand the best chance of eclipsing 40 degrees. Confidence is high that snow will break out tonight in response to good yet brief isentropic lift of deep moisture including and through the dendritic growth layer aloft (10-16 thousand feet up where temperatures will be in the Teens below zero Celsius). This system will be a clipper of sorts, with an initial warm air advection wing arriving this evening which will cause top-down moistening of the atmosphere. Right on the heels of that will be an occlusion aloft, during which if snow is not already reaching the ground before that, it will once that feature arrives. Model blended precipitation yields a widespread one to two tenths of an inch liquid-equivalent overnight into early Monday, with perhaps closer to a quarter inch in some parts of Central New York. Employing 15:1 snow-to-liquid ratios and trending down towards 10:1 with time, not much has changed from the previous forecast for snowfall except that prospects for topographic lift in northern Oneida County has compelled me to trend higher there into a 2 to 3 inches range. The same can be said for the highest Catskill elevations of Northern Sullivan- Southeast Delaware Counties. For most areas 1 to 2 inches total still looks good for tonight through Monday morning. In addition to the exceptions mentioned above, the I-88 corridor toward the higher terrain between Binghamton-Albany, and also the higher terrain between Binghamton and Syracuse-Utica stand a better chance of around or slightly above 2 inches. The least amount of snow looks to be in the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area with up to an inch in the higher elevations just outside the valley, but generally under an inch in the metro areas themselves. So again, the amounts are not overwhelming but the timing is not optimal for the Monday morning commute as roads could be slippery. The light snow will gradually lift northeast Monday morning, allowing a dry slot to overtake the region during the day and only spotty lingering mixed rain-snow showers. Highs will actually still manage to get upper 30s-lower 40s which will cause much of the newly fallen snow to be short-lived from afternoon melting.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Transient high pressure builds in briefly for Monday night with partial clearing, light winds, and lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s. Heading into Tuesday, the next system will move NE toward the area. Overall set up will be deep trough over the central/western CONUS with a low pressure system on the eastern side of this feature lifting NE from the Gulf coast region toward the Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. Some sun early in the day will give way to skies quickly becoming mostly cloudy with precipitation breaking out SW to NE during the afternoon. Precipitation type still looks to be tricky. Daytime highs will reach the upper 30s with temps aloft initially below freezing. For this reason, rain or a rain/snow mix initially will likely trend more toward mostly snow by the early evening for much of the region. However after this time some differences in the models regarding the exact evolution of the low and how much warmer air as able to make it into the region. In the bigger picture, primary low will move NE toward western PA with a secondary low developing off the Delmarva. GFS keeps primary low a little stronger than most of the other models resulting in warmer air advecting in with a change to rain. NAM is cooler and keeps mainly snow going across much of the region through the evening before a mix or change to rain or even a little freezing rain would be possible overnight. Considering the remaining uncertainty, continued to utilize a model blend approach and keep a mix of rain and snow in for most of the forecast area Tuesday night. The best chances for seeing mainly snow with a few inches of accumulation possible would be the higher terrain areas of the western Catskills. ` The low will be a quick mover with rain/snow moving out west to east during the first part of the day Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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400 AM Update...No major changes to long range forecast. Still uncertainty regarding a potential system Thursday with colder temps to follow for the end of the week into next weekend. 300 PM Saturday Update... Our next focus in our active pattern will be the potential for more rain and snow Thursday, along with much colder air arriving Thursday night into Friday. By Friday we should be into the heart of the cold air with 850 temps into the teens below zero. This should be more than enough with a west- northwest wind for lake snows downwind of Lake Ontario. In general used a model blend which kept chances for precip in the 30 to 50% range, but I did increase chances by Thursday night into Friday downwind of the lakes given the impending colder surge of air.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Though lake moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion, ceilings have lifted into VFR for KAVP-KSYR-KRME, though KELM- KITH will still be bouncing in and out of high end MVFR though much of the morning. For KBGM the MVFR ceiling will be more persistent, though fuel alternate level is no longer likely. All terminals will achieve VFR for the afternoon as the lower clouds scatter. However high thin VFR clouds will begin to develop ahead of our next system, then lowering and thickening this evening. We anticipate light snow and associated MVFR to IFR restrictions spread west to east across the terminals 04Z-08Z Monday. Northwest winds 4-8 knots early this morning, will become light and variable during the day and then light southeast this evening. OUTLOOK... Monday...Restrictions likely Monday morning as light snow moves through the region; just spotty rain-snow late morning onward. Monday Night-Early Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday...Restrictions in wintry mix or rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...Heden/PCF AVIATION...MDP

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