Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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881 FXUS61 KBGM 082055 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 355 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST. AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S ONCE AGAIN. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 220 PM MONDAY UPDATE... OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR. IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS. DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND FLOW IS PROGGED. THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. FOR A TIME, LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS, FOR NOW, WE`LL KEEP THE EXPECTED CATEGORY AS MVFR. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF AVIATION...MLJ

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