Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 292221 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 621 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE INITIALLY DRY THIS EVENING...SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 610 PM UPDATE... MADE SMALL CHANGES TO REFLECT RAPID /YET TEMPORARY/ DISSIPATION IN CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING WAVE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...ACTUAL SPRINKLES-SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. THAT IS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL JET ASSISTS WITH A MOISTURE INFLUX AND A SMALL BIT INSTABILITY FROM 06Z WEST TO 12Z ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RADAR STILL SHOWS SCT SHRA/SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NY TO INCLUDE AREAS E OF I-81 IN C NY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY W OF SYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR AT ARND 850 MB THAT WAS LEADING TO SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ABOVE AREAS. FARTHER WEST...850 MB TEMPS HAVE RISEN WITH ENUF SFC HEATING TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ABV INTO THE MOIST BNDRY LAYER. THIS WAS BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SUBSDC AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SHRA/SPRINKLE ACVTY TO THE E AND WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES. HAVE CHC SHRA OR SPRINKLES TAPERING OFF IN OUR NRN AND ERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING SHRA WITH ISLD TSRA MOVING ACRS OHIO. ALL HI RES MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ALIKE SHOW THAT C NY AND NE PA COME UNDER AN INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT ARND 850 MB THIS EVE WHICH SUPPORTS DECENT THETA-E ADVTN. THIS OCCURS WITHOUT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT MID-LEVELS LEADING TO NET DESTABILIZATION. HENCE SHRA WILL BREAK OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS LLJ FEATURE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP REACHES OUR FAR WRN ZONES (THE WRN FINGER LAKES) BY 06Z AND TO JUST E OF I-81 BY 12Z. SO HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E. ADDED THUNDER WHERE SHOWALTER INDICES CREEP ABV ZERO LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN WRN NY AND NC PA. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS IT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH BROAD SCALE LIFTING OCCURING ABOVE CONTINUED LL THETA-E ADVTN AND INSOLATION. AS A RESULT GFS...NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE MODERATE AMNTS OF CAPE FOR OUR AREA (~ 1000 J/KG) DEVELOPS ABY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS E. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABT 15-20 KNOTS AS A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE 0-3 KM ARND 25 KNOTS AND THE 0-6 KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. LOCAL SVR CHECKLIST RETURNS SCT SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NO MAJOR EVENTS...SO WE ALL CONCUR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TUESDAY. WILL CONT TO MENTION IN HWO. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND STRG PV ADVTN CROSSES THE REGION ABOVE A CONTINUED MOIST LL SWRLY FLOW. THE LL DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE SAME AS WE COOL ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWRLY LLJ AFTER SUNSET TUE NGT AS THE MID- LEVELS COOL. HENCE WE REMAIN UNSTBL THRU TUE NGT. TIMING IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SO CONT CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER RUNNING ARND 1.25 INCHES AS THERE IS MORE DRY AIR ALOFT SO WE SHUD BE ABLE TO ESCAPE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING MORE SHRA AND TSRA. THIS ACVTY LINGERS INTO WED NGT. THURSDAY THE FRNT PUSHS SOUTH AND SHRA AND TSRA CUD LINGER AS MODEL VARY ON TIMING OF FRNT AND HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT. FOR NOW JUST TWEAKED PREV FORECAST AND COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN GENERAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO NE PA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA REMAINS DRY. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING THE AREA CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON MONDAY. OVERALL A CONTINUATION OF A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRATO CU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, SFC LOW PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUE AFTERNOON BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS. AT KITH/KELM, INCLUDED MVFR RAIN SHOWERS AS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN THERE FIRST AROUND DAYBREAK. BY AFTERNOON WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF REGION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN S/SE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. THU...MAINLY VFR. FRI THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.