Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 241050 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW. TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH. DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH NO TSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY. SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE. TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW. 315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX. ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK). TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN THE 50S-MID 60S). && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED CI TODAY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA. SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER... 3 AM UPDATE... WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST 5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE WEEKEND THREAT LOW. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM FIRE WEATHER...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.