Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 200816 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 316 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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315 AM UPDATE... BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY. THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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315 AM UPDATE... STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME BY LATELY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN 10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...MDP

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