Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 250804 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 404 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be the theme today. A cold front will move across the area this evening and will eventually put an end to the chance for showers over the region. This front will also bring drier air and quiet weather through mid-week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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400 AM EDT Update... Hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms is the theme for today. Light rain showers are moving east across portions of NY and PA this morning due an embedded shortwave propagating across the northeast and expect more to develop today. There will be two different waves that will move across the region today, one in the morning - a prefrontal wave, and one in the afternoon- the cold front. Both are expected to generate showers and thunderstorms today. This morning a pre-frontal wave will push across NEPA and Cntrl NY. This initial wave has decent dynamics with it is what is generating a line of showers west of the great lakes. This wave will push into W NY/PA around 12Z. Dew pts this morning are currently in the upper 50s to mid 60s and are expected to rise into the 70s by mid morning. Temps across the region will quickly increase this morning as well which will result in a muggy, and unstable atmosphere. 0-2km SR inflow will range from 15-20 kts which is good for a convective environment, however the 0-6KM Bulk shear across there region this morning will be fairly weak around 20-25 knots. Lapse rate are also on the low side, thus this morning do not expect any severe storms attendant to the pre-frontal wave. The wave dynamically this morning is more impressive than the 2nd wave that will move through region this afternoon. Temps will rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon. Issued a heat advisory for Pike Co, where heat index values are expected to rise at and above 100 degrees. Showers will develop over W NY/PA and push eastward into cntrl NY and NEPA by 15-18Z. The 2nd wave will push into the region mid- afternoon. This 2nd wave will force a cold front across the region and this boundary will help regenerate storms over the area. The cold front will start to move into cntrl NY around 21Z. This front will eventually push the showers east of our region by 03Z Tuesday. The shear by late afternoon will increase to around 30- 40 knots across the region, Thus activity may be more organized this afternoon than this morning. Currently we are under a marginal for most of the CWA and the region under a slight risk just brushes south of our CWA. Concerns that may inhibit severe weather are if mid lvl lapse rates will become steep enough to support svr levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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400 AM EDT Update... High pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday and last through Wednesday. Temps will range in the uppr 80s to low 90s during this period with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, which will keep temps close to their ambient temps and slightly more comfortable.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast models begin to diverge during this period as far as the day to forecast specifics, especially after Thursday. However in the big picture, the overall set up will be for lower heights and increasing broad upper level troughiness over eastern Canada back toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a series of waves look to move west to east through the base of the trough bringing the area increasing chances of much needed rain. To start the period, there will be chances for scattered showers/storms by late Thursday as a cold front moves south toward the area. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of this front with highs Thursday in the 80s to near 90. We keep rain chances in the forecast for Friday through next weekend as indications are that the above mentioned cold front may stall in the vicinity of the area as a series of waves ripple east along the boundary. The temperature trend during this period should be for somewhat cooler daytime highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s, with warmer lows due to increasing cloud cover and moisture. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clsd low over James Bay will swing an upr trof thru the area today with a sfc cold front and trigger sct conv. Passage of the sfc trof arnd or just aft midday will keep the heavier tstms just east of the tafs sites but still a good chance that most sites will see some thunder with brief mvfr conds psbl. Bhd the fnt, drier air will return the a sites to vfr with lgt wly winds. OUTLOOK... Mon overnight to Wed night...mainly VFR. Thu to Fri...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ048. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...BJT/DGM

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