Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 010027 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... 800 PM EDT UPDATE... BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 215 PM EDT UPDATE... THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION. THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S. ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH... WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 215 PM EDT UPDATE... CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.... A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD. TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT WE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH. KAVP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS THEY WILL LINGER WITH AN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING A RISK OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO TAF SITES HOWEVER THINKING IS THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED CIGS AND THUS REMAIN VFR. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR WEDNESDAY WITH OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK... WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR. THU NGT-FRI...SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS. FRI NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...MSE/PCF

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