Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 311047 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 647 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 18Z. FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FORE MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 300 AM EDT UPDATE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 440 AM EDT UPDATE... BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY... THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH. SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC. SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. 1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE. OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED STRATO CU CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KSYR/KELM TERMINALS. E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS. SUN-TUE...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

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