Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 200229 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1029 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise into the 70s this weekend. The pattern will become more unsettled and slightly cooler next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1015 pm update... Front moving slowly and still not in CWA. Temperatures holding in the 60s except for the deepest valleys. Also clouds slow to leave. Adjusted temperatures and cloud amounts up to 06z. 5 pm update... Minor changes to grids this evening. Temperatures warmer than forecast and will stay up ahead of cold front. Winds stronger. 310 PM update... Except for a scattering of light fog in the river valleys Friday morning, clear weather is expected through the near-term forecast period. Temperatures will push back into the middle and upper-60s on Friday as ridging recovers behind a departing cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weekend in the short term continues to be dominated by a powerful ridge at the surface and aloft. This will keep dry and warm weather in the area, with virtually no chance for precipitation. Highs Saturday and Sunday will average at least 15 degrees above normal, while clear skies will allow for chillier nights, only about 5 above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Significant differences in the long range guidance continues leading to some uncertainty in the timing of the cold front early next week. As usual, the faster GFS brings the front in around 24 hrs ahead of the EURO which waits until nearly Tuesday night. Best course of action normally seems to be to lean toward the EURO solution without completely disregarding the GFS. This brings chance pops in the far west Monday, but still the best chance Tuesday when both models have the front stalled in our vicinity as the negatively tilted low sweeps northward through the Great Lakes. Does look like we will get a needed soaking from the system that will help mitigate the developing drought conditions in parts of upstate New York. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 720 pm update... Little change with mostly VFR conditions into Friday evening. Again the only exception might be some river valley fog at ELM. This morning had fog giving brief restrictions to IFR but yesterday none with similar conditions. Again similar with dry ground and strong boundary level winds. Ahead of front this evening is some 6k ft ceilings in central NY with high clouds above that. Expected to stay well above VFR this evening before the lower clouds exit to east with front. Southwest to west wind at around 5 kts this evening becoming west or light and variable late tonight. Friday northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Friday night to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early morning restrictions in fog at KELM Saturday and Sunday. Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to showers. Tuesday...Restrictions likely with occasional rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...TAC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.