Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBGM 210750 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 250 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF 50. BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS MAKING FOR A VERY BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 250 AM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH DRY WEATHER. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKES WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +2C/3C WE ARE JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR WEST SHOWS NOTHING I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK WITH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATO-CU BASED ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. BOTH MODELS SHOW GREATER THAN 90% RH FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 3KFT. IT CERTAINLY IS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER AS YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MUCH ABOVE THAT TO FIND AN ABSENCE OF MOISTURE. WHILE A PEEK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS SEEMS TO BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF ANY HOPE FOR SUN. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS. 925 TEMPS AROUND 2/3 C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 925S NEAR KELM SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THAT AREA CLOSER TO 53. THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 250 AM...SUNDAY WILL BE THE PAY OFF DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE A DISTANT MEMORY WITH A SUN FILLED DAY. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW US BARELY MIXING TO 925 MB AND WITH HP IN CONTROL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ADDING TO THE TEMP FORECAST PROBLEM SUNDAY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE ABOUT 3C APART ON 925 MB TEMP FORECASTS. THE GFS WITH 925S AROUND 5 OR 6 IS SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO 50 AGAIN WITH 925S AROUND 3. I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT MY GUT SAYS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WILL BE MORE ACCURATE GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL (LIGHT WINDS, LOW INVERSION). FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN BY MONDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE 500 TROF NOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BY KEEPING THE 500 TROF MUCH STRONGER. THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND NAM KEEP THE 500 TROF MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND FOCUS MORE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE DELMARVA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GEM WAS USED WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEPA UP THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. THE NEW EURO IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS CAMP AND THE GEM/NAM KEEP BY KEEPING THE WAVE MORE OPEN (LIKE THE NAM/GEM MODELS) BUT STILL SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. OVERALL THE IDEA REMAINS THE SAME...BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE THE FARTHER SOUTH/EAST YOU GO.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT. THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...WE`RE LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BY MIDDAY (15-18Z)...VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA- WIDE...AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND CLOUD BASES LIFT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT SATURDAY. AT KELM AND KAVP...MAINLY VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD. OUTLOOK... SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL. SUN/SUN NGT...VFR. MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM..HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...MLJ
