Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBGM 261055
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days.
Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 am update...
Thin high-level cloudiness covers much of the region at this time,
with temperatures expected to range mostly in the 50s by around
daybreak. Readings will warm quickly again after sunrise.
Today`s weather is expected to be similar to what we experienced
yesterday, in many regards. Both satellite imagery and meso-
analyses confirm a mid-level short-wave axis early this morning,
extending from around Lake Superior, southward through the OH and
TN Valleys. Although this feature is expected to approach our
region this afternoon, it will also be in the process of
dampening out with time. A close inspection of area model
soundings this afternoon also shows the development of an
inverted-V type profile, with fairly dry boundary layer
conditions. Most of our high-resolution convection allowing models
show scattered showers and thunderstorms out to our west, slowly
weakening/fading as they approach Central NY/Northeast PA later in
the day and early this evening. Given the expected weakening trend
of the supporting short-wave and the dry low-level environment it
will be moving into (as mentioned above), the diminishing trend
through our forecast area seems quite reasonable. As a result,
we`ll undercut Superblend POP`s a bit, and mention only widely
scattered showers/storms, at best (POP`s 20-35%).
Look for highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s again this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 am update...
Any isolated-scattered early evening convection is expected to
dissipate again overnight, underneath partly-mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will be milder than recent nights, with lows only in
the upper 50s-mid 60s.
Friday-Saturday, our summer-time pattern will continue, with an
upper ridge axis amplifying over the eastern states. This will
likely add a few degrees to our high temperatures, with readings
solidly in the 80s each afternoon. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, it would not be shocking to see some of our normally
warmer, more urbanized areas in the lake plain, approach 90
As far as convective potential goes, isolated-scattered coverage
seems like the most probable scenario. Building
heights/temperatures aloft will be detracting factors, but
increasing surface dew points and diurnal instability (ML Capes
likely into the 1000-2000 j/kg range) should be enough to bring at
least hit and miss thunderstorms. A weak convergence zone/back-
door type surface front in the vicinity (especially by late
Saturday) may also act as a trigger, particularly up over our
northern zones. Any threat for strong-severe storms looks low,
however, with very weak environmental winds all the way up
through mid-levels of the atmosphere.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 pm Wednesday update...
Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then
maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above
normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of
the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR through late morning all terminals. An area of showers and
thunderstorms will develop between noon and 4 PM, mainly NY
terminals. Confidence medium to high in timing and enough coverage
to warrent a tempo group of MVFR vsbys during that time, NY
terminals. Brief IFR Vsbys possible and if confidence continues to
grow, a small window of -TSRA may be added to the TAFS. By early
evening remnants of showers and storms will dissipate with a
return to VFR.
Light and variable through mid morning becoming S/SW by this
afternoon at 5 to 10 knots.
Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best
chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain
showers could reduce conditions. Starting Friday visibilities
could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog.
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