Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 020835 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 435 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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415 AM UPDATE... THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A LINE FROM NEAR UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS), WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH THAT IN MIND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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415 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE 8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z TUE UPDATE... VRBL CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS...AND ALSO VSBY`S IN BR/HZ/-SHRA AT MOST SITES...SPCLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. AT KELM...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION ARND DAYBREAK...SO HERE WE`VE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY. FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW 2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION. THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM. SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM... AVIATION...KAH/MLJ

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