Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 201759 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 159 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY...AS MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 100 PM UPDATE... INCREASED CLOUD COVER AGAIN BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCASTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEY AREAS WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO SCOUR OUT (DOWNSLOPING) THE CLOUDS. BASED ON CLOUDS REFORMING IN WESTERN PA/NY, LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A TOUGH TIME TODAY SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER I LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. 850 AM UPDATE... OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BASED ON SATELLITE DEPICTION OF LOW CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING EAST, INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NY AND NEPA THROUGH LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH CLOUDS THINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... 615 AM UPDATE...REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS FOR -DZ ACRS NE PA AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY FOR EARLY THIS MRNG. OTRW JUST MINOR TWEEKS TO T/TD/CLD GRIDS. PREV BLO... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MRNG. STRATUS DECK HAS MOVD INTO NE PA AND MUCH OF CNTRL NY. MDL PROFILES SUGGEST THIS DECK WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. 925 TEMPS LATER THIS AFTN APRCH +18C ACRS WRN ZONES...SUPPORTING MAXES IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80. FURTHER EAST WHERE CLDS LINGER...MAXES WILL BE COOLER...WITH U60S TO L70S LIKELY. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTN...SPCLY FINGER LAKES RGN WHERE G25-30 LOOK LIKELY. MILD SSW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE U50S OR L60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PCPN ASSCD WITH LEAD S/WV MAY WORK INTO FAR WRN ZONES ON SUNDAY MRNG...BUT BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE IN THE AFTN/EVNG HRS WITH APRCH OF MAIN VORT LOBE AND ASSCD CDFNT. MDLS SHOW VARYING AMTS OF INSTABILITY AND AGREE ON FAIRLY IMPRSV DYNAMICS AND MDT WIND FIELDS. SPC HAS RGN IN A "SEE TEXT" WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. MAXES SHUD GET BACK INTO THE M70S ON SUNDAY MOST AREAS. FNT WILL SWEEP THRU THE RGN BY SUN EVNG WITH SOME "WRAP- ARND" MSTR...ENHANCED BY LAKE INFLUENCES...OVER THE RGN LATE SUN NGT INTO MONDAY MRNG. DRIER AIR WORKS IN MON AFTN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS XPCTD. MAXES FALL BACK INTO THE U50S ACRS CNTRL NY TO L/M60S NE PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 305 AM UPDATE... NO CHGS NEEDED TO EXTNDD WITH THE MRNG UPDATE AS HIPRES BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT BUILD IN FOLLOWING WEAK TROF PASSAGE TUE MRNG. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SFC TROF PASSING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NRN CWA. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS LIKE A GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WEEKS END. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KITH/KBGM WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTINUES. REST OF TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS NEAR 4K FT. OVERNIGHT, A MOIST S/SE FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSYR BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. ON SUNDAY, A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL END OF TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSYR/KELM/KAVP WHERE CIGS WILL BE NEAR 4K FT. DURING THE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR RAIN SHOWERS. S/SW WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BECOMING S/SE THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...PVN/RRM AVIATION...RRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.