Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 212011 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 411 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 2 PM UPDATE... UPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIT WAVES AT US AND KEEPS SCATTERED CONVECTION DVLPNG AT RANDOM TDA. AS CONVECTION HEADS EAST THIS EVNG, EXPECT IT TO BCM A LITTLE MORE INTENSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 CORRIDOR IN AREA OF BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HWVR THRU 00Z EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG HV OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH BEST 0-6KM SHEAR RMNG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS MAY SEE AN ODD STRONG STORM THIS AFTN/EVNG BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. STORMS WL LKLY PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCHES PER HOUR BUT WL BE FINE IF THEY CAN KEEP MVG. IF STORMS CAN GET ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A LURKING BNDRY, FLOODING (PONDING AND/OR FLASH) COULD BCM AN ISSUE. HWVR NO THREAT LOOKS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME AND WL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO. THUNDER WL BCM LESS AFT 04Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WANES. VRY JUICY AIRMASS WL RMN LOCKED OVR CNY AND NEPA TONIGHT AND HV ADDED IN AREAS OF VLY FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG TO RMNDR OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... 700MB WV WL SKIRT THRU THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CHC POPS CWA-WIDE INTO THE AFTN, VRY SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ACRS NRN ZONES TWD 00Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN FM NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN STABLE EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO BRING AN END TO PCPN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WL BE SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAY, ARND 80 IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DWPTS RMNG UP IN THE 60S GIVING A HUMID AIRMASS TO THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. AS TROF DROPS THRU AND HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE EAST EXPECT PCPN TO WIND DOWN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DIURNAL HTG ON SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS TO POP UP THO MAY SEE MORE SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AS FINAL WV PUSHES THRU DRG THE AFTN. TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF DEPICTS A TROPICAL-BASED CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT STAYING FAR OFF THE COAST BEFORE RECURVING EASTWARD ONCE IT REACHES 38-39 DEGREES NORTH. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE IMPACTED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND TIMING OF TSRA TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS HONES INTO MOST LIKELY PERIOD AS BEST AS POSSIBLE /DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO AMENDING AS THINGS EVOLVE/. SYR-RME MAY GET MORE CONVECTION...BUT EARLIER CONVECTION FORCED STABILIZING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND THUS ACTUAL CB IS LESS CERTAIN COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...AND VERY WEAK FLOW/LACK OF MIXING TONIGHT...WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY WORSE THAN THAT FOR KELM WHERE FOG WILL SHOULD TURN DENSE. AT LEAST MVFR FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MIDDAY...YET ALSO NEW SCATTERED SHRA- TSRA POSSIBLE. VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT- VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT SE TO S FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI THROUGH FRI NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI AFTERNOON...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY KELM. SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP

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