Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 271936 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 236 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NY AND PA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, ARRIVING AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST QPF VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MILD WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ALL THE WAY UP TO 8000 FEET AT 8Z, AND THROUGH 2500-3000 FEET BY 12Z ONCE THE COOLER AIR DEEPENS. THE ODDS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS, AS -8C TO -11C 925MB AIRMASS BLEEDS INTO THE FA. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO PERSISTENT 280-300 LAKE FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED, AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. STUCK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LES ACTIVITY AND ADDED A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL EACH PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GRNL WLY FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD WILL KEEP GNRLY DRY CONDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LE SNOWS PSBL IN THE FAR NORTH AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. VARIOUS WVS/RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL OCNLY ENHANCE OR CHG LOCATIONS OF...THE SNOW SHWRS. TEMPS REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF WINTER...BUT COLD ENUF FOR SNOW WHEN PCPN DOES FALL. CHGS BEGIN ON FRI WHEN A MORE IMPORTANT SYSTEM DVLPS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD DEEPENING OF THE TROF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST AND CORRESPONDING RDGG OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW WRMR AIR...AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PD. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DFRNCS ATTM LEADS TO CNSRBL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. WILL SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND A RAIN OR SNOW FCST AS THE PSN AND AMT OF WAA STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. FOR THE DAILY FCST ITSELF...GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID ONCE AGAIN BUT ALSO TWEEKED IT TWRD THE COLDER GFS MOS WHICH ALLOWED FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY IN THE FCST. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PTNCHS OF CLDS MVG THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...GNRLY VFR SO THERE WILLBE LTL IMPACT ON AVIATION. LOW MVG THRU SRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FNT THRU TNGT AND TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS...AND OCNL MVFR CIGS. RAIN SHD BE LGT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT XPCTD ATTM. DRIER AIR AND WLY WINDS BHD THE FNT LATE TNGT AND ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CLRG AND A RETURN THE VFR ALL STATIONS. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT/MON...VFR. TUE/WED/THU...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FOR KRME/KSYR...DUE TO LES. OTRWS...VFR IS EXPECTED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.