Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 280540 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 140 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will move east of the region overnight dragging a cold front through. Colder air will arrive later tonight along with continued scattered rain showers which will mix with snow showers late tonight. Scattered lake effect rain and snow showers will still occur into Friday morning, mainly in Central New York, otherwise generally quiet weather is expected through Friday Night from a passing ridge of high pressure. It will be milder yet unsettled over the weekend as another system affects the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Radar shows showers across most areas east of I-81 in central NY and northeast PA. Temperatures have climbed above freezing most areas and the precipitation was tapering down. Hence let winter weather advisory expire all areas. Mesoanalysis shows an 850 mb low just north of Lake Ontario. As this low passes east overnight the low-level winds will turn northwesterly with cold air advection pouring across central NY and northeast PA by 6-9z. Cold air stratocumulus will cover most of central NY and northeast PA later tonight and Friday morning as a northwest flow continues across Lake Ontario. 850 mb temperatures are close to -6C Friday morning which leads to an 18C differential. The inversion height was around 6000 feet but will be lowering during the late morning and afternoon. The flow was around 320 degrees suggestive of multibanding. Hence not expecting much lake effect snow and rains other than scattered activity, especially with sunshine by afternoon as clouds begin to break up. We expect more clearing Friday afternoon in the central southern tier / Finger Lakes and into northeast PA and for the clouds to hang on longest in the northern catskills and highlands of central NY where more upsloping is present. It will be chilly with highs mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some upper 40s will be likely west to the Finger Lakes and down into the valleys of northeast PA where more sunshine is expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 PM EDT Update... Anticyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail during the initial phase of the forecast period. High pressure at the surface combined with ridging at mid levels will swing across the region Friday night. The far northern edge of this ridge will nose into central NY, and push just far enough north into central NY to keep the majority of the area dry through Saturday morning. A weak wave embedded within the NW flow aloft will drift across the northern portion of NY around midnight. This may create an environment conducive for rain and snow showers to develop, mainly over the southern Tug Hill Plateau. Saturday the flow aloft will transition into a zonal flow which will allow a frontal boundary to drift southward into the reg AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. This boundary will help generate showers throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the day are expected to remain in the 50s, thus expect rain to be the precip type and no hazardous weather conditions are expected at this time. The aforementioned boundary is expected to linger through Sunday afternoon til a shortwave trough swings across the great lakes region Sunday afternoon and kicks it out of the region. There will be a chance for precip over the region as long as this boundary lingers. Temps Sat afternoon will rise in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sat night/Sunday morning there will not be much of a diurnal change, as temps will remain in the low 50s as strong WAA shifts into the region. Temps Sunday afternoon will be similar to Sat, ranging in the low 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM EDT Update... It looks like quiet weather returns to central NY and northeast PA. Ridging over the eastern CONUS slowly starts to strengthen and high pressure as the surface starts to build. This pattern will keep our area dry starting Sunday night through Monday evening. A weak shortwave will swing across the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. This may bring our next chance for precip over our area, but confidence is very low, thus kept low chance in forecast. After this system moves through ridging aloft and high pressure will build back into the region which will continue to keep dry weather over NY and PA. Temps during the forecast period will be at or around normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is crossing the region overnight and behind this feature winds shift to gusty NW. Generally expect MVFR cigs overnight in the wake of this feature with KRME/KBGM seeing occasional restrictions to IFR cigs. Friday will feature gusty NW winds and a deck of low strato cu persisting beneath an inversion. Expect most sites to stay with MVFR cigs through the day with the exceptions being KELM/KAVP which should lift to a low VFR deck by mid morning. Winds become gusty out of the NW overnight in the wake of a cold front increasing to 10-15 gusting 20-25 knots. These winds persist much of Friday. OUTLOOK... Friday night...VFR. Saturday-Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain showers. Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...MLJ/MDP/PCF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.