Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 070855 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 355 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A MILD AND FAIR SUNDAY, A GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 155 AM UPDATE... WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL BRING ABNORMALLY HIGH THICKNESSES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, WITH 925MB 0C ISOTHERM NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM MISSES OUR REGION TO THE RIGHT, THE CYCLONE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP CARVE OUT THE UL TROF AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COOLER END OF WEEK. THE WEST EDGE OF COASTAL`S PRECIP SHIELD IS CLOSE ENOUGH THE THE POCONOS REGION TO BEAR WATCHING, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PRECIP IS FROM THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN FA MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROF SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL, TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER ROUGHLY 36 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING CYCLONE WILL GENERATE LAKE SNOWS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 350 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. IN GENERAL A COLD PERIOD BUT NO BIG STORMS MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. PREVIOUS DISC... FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING THE MAIN THREAT. UTILIZED MODEL BLEND KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY DETAILS, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SETTING UP BY THE LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH W/NW FLOW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR ONEIDA, ONONDAGA, AND MADISON COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. COLDER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH GUSTY NW WIND. TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR COLD AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH EARLY INDICATIONS BEING FOR A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL DAYBREAK SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NYS TERMINALS BUT MAINLY KRME/KSYR/KITH. FOR TODAY EITHER JUST SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR SKC THEN THIS EVENING CI DUE TO SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. TONIGHT SE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .OUTLOOK... MON MORNING...VFR. MON AFTN THRU THU...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM

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