Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 072350 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 750 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 5 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER BY 6-7 PM. ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING ACTIVITY IN SOONER ACROSS THE WRN CWA. PREVIOUS DISC... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PA HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTY WILL MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPLETELY RAINFREE PERIOD OF WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 30 TO 40 KTS AT 850 MB BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE BRIEFLY INTO SOME BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS... HOWEVER THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING AN ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT. A BIGGER THREAT THAN WIND MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-81 CORRIDOR AS INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIMITED. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THE RAIN THREAT TO BE ENDING LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL NY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA BUT EVEN THAT AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH FAST MOVING WAVE WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES...POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY SEE LITTLE TO NOTHING FROM THIS SYSTEM IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD...THOUGH ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER AND SOUTH CULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT PWATS NEARING 1.8-1.9 INCHES AND FAIRLY DECENT DEEP CLOUD LAYER NEARING OR ABV 13K FT. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR STRONG FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE EURO WAS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP THURSDAY...NAM AND GFS RUNNING IT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND DRIES THE REGION AS WEAK SFC HIGH TAKES HOLD. DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY AND WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING WITH THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...TEMPS WILL PUSH TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT HERE...BUT IT STARTS TO DECREASE RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WAVES THAT WILL ROUND THE LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL RETRO CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONGWAVE PATTERN NOT OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE WILL START TO DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT THOSE FINER DETAILS MAY NOT BE DEFINABLE FOR A FEW DAYS...GFS TRYING TO DIG OUT A CUTOFF LOW WITH A REALLY WET WEEK SETTING UP...THE EURO KEEPING A MUCH DRIER NW FLOW. KEPT LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE END PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WETTER SCENARIO THAT THE 12Z GFS SHOWS COULD CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS IF REALIZED...IT HAS HELD THIS SOLUTION FOR TWO DAYS...BUT STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR IT TO ADJUST ITS SOLUTION AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND AND THE WAVES ALONG THE RIDGE ARE BETTER SAMPLED AND INITIALIZED. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY. AT TIMES MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 5Z. SOME STEADIER LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER THAT WITH MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE VSBYS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH COLD FRONT CIGS DROP FURTHER TO FUEL ALTERNATES ALL AND IFR AT BGM/ITH 9 TO 13Z. QUICK IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING TO VFR AND SCT CLOUDS. AVP WILL STAY VFR THE LONGEST. RAIN SHOWERS NOT UNTIL AT LEAST 6Z THEN MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED IN SRN PA CIGS REMAIN BUT IMPROVE TO VFR 14Z. S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVE SHIFT TO W AT 5 KTS THEN NW LATE TONIGHT. WED NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK... WED NGT...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE. THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS-FOG. FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM SHORT TERM...ABS LONG TERM...ABS/DJP AVIATION...TAC

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