Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 052042 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 342 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER 300 FLOW BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION THAN THE NAM. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE NRN CWA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN WAA FORCING. ACCUMS OVER THE NRN CWA WILL BE UP TO TWO INCHES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MAXES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 20S WITH READINGS LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD ARE PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR RESTRICTIONS IS KITH/KBGM AND POTENTIALLY KSYR. FOR KITH, EXPECT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF CAYUGA LAKE. LOW STRATUS AFFECTING KBGM AS WELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KSYR/KRME, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AT THIS POINT WE DON`T EXPECT THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FINALLY, SNOW HAS EXITED KAVP WITH NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THERE. ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT...VFR. SAT-SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUN NIGHT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. TUES....VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...PCF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.