Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 300757 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS JUST ENTERING NY STATE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 12-18Z)...CLEARING EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL SEE ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK FORMS HEADING INTO THIS MORNING. ALSO, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL AT AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5 TO 5.5 C/KM. THUS, POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT GREAT BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS WELL AS ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-81 DUE TO LATER TIMING OF FRONT TOWARD PEAK HEATING. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT DEVELOPING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MOVING IN. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM UPDATE... FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD ACT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT- WAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PROGGED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT ON SATURDAY (0-6 KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT)...ONLY MODEST ML CAPE (MAINLY 500-1000 J/KG) AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR EARLY AUGUST (1-1.5")...SO HEAVY RAINFALL DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN EITHER. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER (70S-LOWER 80S). SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD TEMPORARILY DRY OUT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH THOSE FINER DETAILS ARE NOT CLEARLY INTO FOCUS JUST YET. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. UNSETTLED BUT ONLY LOW CHC TO SCHC POPS. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A DECENT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SITES CURRENTLY VFR HOWEVER OVERNIGHT CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS WE EXPECT A STRATUS DECK TO FORM BY MORNING AND AFFECT AVP/BGM/ELM WITH MVFR CIGS. THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THERE IS THE RISK OF THUNDER AS WELL HOWEVER DUE TO THE MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONT THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. THE FRONT CLEARS ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS AND W-NW 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS HIGHER TERRAIN SITES BY THU PM. .OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NGT TO MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC AVIATION...PCF

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