Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBGM 280540
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
140 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A low pressure system will move east of the region overnight
dragging a cold front through. Colder air will arrive later
tonight along with continued scattered rain showers which will
mix with snow showers late tonight. Scattered lake effect rain
and snow showers will still occur into Friday morning, mainly in
Central New York, otherwise generally quiet weather is expected
through Friday Night from a passing ridge of high pressure. It
will be milder yet unsettled over the weekend as another system
affects the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Radar shows showers across most areas east of I-81 in central NY
and northeast PA. Temperatures have climbed above freezing most
areas and the precipitation was tapering down. Hence let winter
weather advisory expire all areas. Mesoanalysis shows an 850 mb
low just north of Lake Ontario. As this low passes east overnight the
low-level winds will turn northwesterly with cold air advection
pouring across central NY and northeast PA by 6-9z. Cold air
stratocumulus will cover most of central NY and northeast PA later
tonight and Friday morning as a northwest flow continues across
Lake Ontario. 850 mb temperatures are close to -6C Friday morning which
leads to an 18C differential. The inversion height was around
6000 feet but will be lowering during the late morning and
afternoon. The flow was around 320 degrees suggestive of
multibanding. Hence not expecting much lake effect snow and rains
other than scattered activity, especially with sunshine by
afternoon as clouds begin to break up. We expect more clearing
Friday afternoon in the central southern tier / Finger Lakes and
into northeast PA and for the clouds to hang on longest in the
northern catskills and highlands of central NY where more
upsloping is present. It will be chilly with highs mainly in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Some upper 40s will be likely west to the
Finger Lakes and down into the valleys of northeast PA where more
sunshine is expected.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM EDT Update...
Anticyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail during the
initial phase of the forecast period. High pressure at the surface
combined with ridging at mid levels will swing across the region
Friday night. The far northern edge of this ridge will nose into
central NY, and push just far enough north into central NY to keep
the majority of the area dry through Saturday morning. A weak wave
embedded within the NW flow aloft will drift across the northern
portion of NY around midnight. This may create an environment
conducive for rain and snow showers to develop, mainly over the
southern Tug Hill Plateau.
Saturday the flow aloft will transition into a zonal flow which will
allow a frontal boundary to drift southward into the reg AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. This boundary will help generate showers
throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the day
are expected to remain in the 50s, thus expect rain to be the
precip type and no hazardous weather conditions are expected at
this time. The aforementioned boundary is expected to linger
through Sunday afternoon til a shortwave trough swings across the
great lakes region Sunday afternoon and kicks it out of the
region. There will be a chance for precip over the region as long
as this boundary lingers.
Temps Sat afternoon will rise in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sat
night/Sunday morning there will not be much of a diurnal change, as
temps will remain in the low 50s as strong WAA shifts into the
Temps Sunday afternoon will be similar to Sat, ranging in the low
50s and 60s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM EDT Update...
It looks like quiet weather returns to central NY and northeast
PA. Ridging over the eastern CONUS slowly starts to strengthen and
high pressure as the surface starts to build. This pattern will
keep our area dry starting Sunday night through Monday evening. A
weak shortwave will swing across the northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This may bring our next chance for precip over our
area, but confidence is very low, thus kept low chance in
forecast. After this system moves through ridging aloft and high
pressure will build back into the region which will continue to
keep dry weather over NY and PA.
Temps during the forecast period will be at or around normal.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is crossing the region overnight and behind this
feature winds shift to gusty NW. Generally expect MVFR cigs
overnight in the wake of this feature with KRME/KBGM seeing
occasional restrictions to IFR cigs.
Friday will feature gusty NW winds and a deck of low strato cu persisting
beneath an inversion. Expect most sites to stay with MVFR cigs
through the day with the exceptions being KELM/KAVP which should
lift to a low VFR deck by mid morning.
Winds become gusty out of the NW overnight in the wake of a cold
front increasing to 10-15 gusting 20-25 knots. These winds persist
much of Friday.
Saturday-Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain showers.