Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 232329 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 729 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend with lots of sunshine. A storm system will start to impact the northeast early Monday morning. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region mostly Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday ending the chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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730 pm update... A few storms lingering from the Mohawk Valley northward to the Tug Hill Plateau this evening...with a rapid decrease in intensity noted on radar. This trend will continue this evening with conditions remaining quiet into Sunday. No major changes made to the forecast at this point. 2 PM update... Temperatures have rebounded back into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. A lake shadow is keeping SYR cooler. Clear to partly cloudy skies. Questions the next few hours with convection over eastern Lake Ontario diving sse. Good elevated core with in cloud lightning on lead cell half hour north of Oswego. This with a decent short wave and secondary cold front. Added pops to Onondaga Madison and Otsego until 00z. Expect thunderstorm to weaken as it moves into the drier air over the land. Low level instability is good though so lift continues. Tonight skies will clear. High pressure builds in late tonight. Some fog possible but boundary layer winds still strong. Best chance will be in the river valleys of the Chemung basin closer to the high. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s and lower 60s with the dry air. Still several degrees over the crossover temperature. The high will be over the area Sunday. This will keep the area dry and sunny with light winds. With WAA high temperatures will again be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm advection sets up for Sunday night in advance of next system. Lead shortwave energy with this system may bring some scattered showers or storms overnight into early Monday..mainly over central NY. Overnight lows will be very mild due to SW flow bringing in the warm/humid airmass with most areas not dropping below the upper 60s to low 70s. For Monday, scattered showers/storms may be ongoing to start the day due to lead shortwave energy. This may act to hinder destabilization later in the day. Still expect more widespread showers/storms to develop in the afternoon as main cold front approaches along with stronger forcing aloft. Forecast models suggest potential of ML CAPES to reach 1000-2000+ j/kg with deep layer shear initially 20-30 knots increasing to 30-40 knots by late day. As alluded to above, still some uncertainty as to just how unstable conditions will get due to cloud cover and also if best instability can align with the strongest shear/forcing. Thus, potential exists for severe storms to occur during the afternoon/early evening however confidence currently not high. The other big story for Monday will be temps in the 80s to near 90 along with oppressive humidity. This will result in heat indices in the low to mid 90s from the Southern Tier into NE PA. Showers and storms will diminish Monday evening with the cold frontal passage gradually bringing in a less humid airmass by Tuesday. Tuesday will feature mainly sunny skies and seasonally warm temperatures with less humidity as high pressure moves in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will bring continuing seasonally warm temperatures with mainly sunny skies and fairly comfortable humidity levels through midweek. Forecast models begin to diverge as far as forecast details for late in the week into next weekend however in the big picture, upper level troughiness developing over eastern Canada will support increasing chances for showers/storms over the area by late week into next weekend. The end of the forecast period will also tend toward slightly cooler daytime highs but warmer overnight lows due to increasing clouds and low level dew points. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. There is a low chance of patchy light fog in the valleys late tonight...but not confident enough to put into TAFs. Otherwise skies remain mostly clear with only a layer of high clouds moving in during the afternoon hours Sunday. Tonight winds dropping to light and variable or calm. Sunday winds light from the N/NW. OUTLOOK... Sun night...VFR. Mon and Mon eve...Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR. Monday overnight to Thu...mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...BJT/TAC

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