Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 311052 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 652 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 AM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER 588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 7 AM MONDAY UPDATE... KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY 13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY. THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...MSE/TAC AVIATION...TAC

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