Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 310546 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1045 PM UPDATE.. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER 03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... 235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD. ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD. FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR 20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE. OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSYR/KELM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS. SUN-TUE...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...RRM

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