Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 200226 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1026 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1020 PM UPDATE... MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. OVERALL JUST A LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO BROADER-THAN-EXPECTED SHIELD OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS...THUS PREVENTING AS PRECIPITOUS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING DROP OFF AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. 615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. 1 PM UPDATE... 1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS. SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST. WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST) AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 240 PM UPDATE... SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS. MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS. TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... 240 PM UPDATE... RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA. 10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...CMG FIRE WEATHER...

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