Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 291920 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 320 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS INTO NE PA WHERE A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W EARLY ON SATURDAY AND MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR ALL THE CLOUDS OUT. EVEN STILL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BECOMING UNSETTLED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA / OVERRUNNING TO MOVE IN SW TO NE AFTER 3Z. RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING FOR A TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY, THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH S/W ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS SWINGING EAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN MOVING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE NAM INDICATES OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION....HEAVIER THAN THE GFS AND EC. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THESE LATTER TWO MODELS AND HAVE FORECAST STORM TOTALS GENERALLY OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THIS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WE DON`T EXPECT HYDRO ISSUES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY WX FOR APRIL. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OLD FNTL BNDRY DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN CONTS TO BRING VFR CIGS TO THE AREA. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A LGT RETURN ELY FLOW ACROSS CNTRL PA CURVING UP INTOP WRN NY MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS LTR TNGT TO AVP/BGM AND ELM. DRIER AIR FROM NEW ENG ARRIVES LTR TNGT AND EARLY SAT RAISING CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME CLRG OVER THE ERN SITES. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY. TUE/WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DGM

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