Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 231916 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 316 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING CNY AT THIS TIME. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK. EVEN THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE RADAR ARE HAVING A HARD TIME SUSTAINING. SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH BOX...AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST FAVORABLE ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF DAMAGING CELLS...BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS UNLIKELY. FRONT EXITS THIS BY LATE EVENING WITH COOLER AND MORE REFRESHING AIR FILTERING IN BY MORNING. VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH TRENDS WELL IN HAND AND LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN AGREEMENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CONFIRMED BY GOOD 12Z MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS A NICE CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN APPEARS TO OPEN UP MORE ZONALLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR HIGH AMPLITUDE DIGGING OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING WARM FRONT...AND CLIPPER-LIKE LOW REACHES THE UPPER GTLKS BY LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT AM LEANING ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. THUS...WE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE EVENING TO BLEND WITH HIGHER POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPS MAINLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 150 PM UPDATE... LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ALONG WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN. FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND HIGHS IN THE U70S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR TSRA TO CONTINUE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL TRY TO TIME MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FORECASTS. EXPECT TSRA AT SYR THROUGH 19Z, RME THROUGH 20Z AND REMAINDER OF TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z, POSSIBLY 23Z AT AVP. AFTER LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO SET IN IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER 14Z THURSDAY EXPECT NW WINDS FROM 10-15KTS. OUTLOOK... THUR-SAT...VFR. SUN/MON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...PVN

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