Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 271502 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1102 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A system moving by to the south may brush northeast Pennsylvania with a few showers today. Otherwise mostly dry weather is expected until the next system brings showers and the chance of thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. A generally unsettled pattern will persist through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1100 AM EDT Update... A weak shortwave aloft is sliding across the region this morning which can be well noted on water vapor satellite this morning. NW flow is also taking place and advecting dry air at mid and upper lvls across central NY. The mentioned wave will quickly swing across the region and anti- cyclonic flow aloft will shift over the area this evening and the winds within the lower profile of the atmosphere will become light and variable. This shortwave aloft is currently over central PA/NY and is generating a few light rain showers over central PA. It appears that these showers will completely miss our area. Over central NY, are a few areas of drizzle as a strong subsidence inversion dominates. While the inversion will hold throughout the day, the drier air will eventually win and dry our the lower layers of the atmos enough by early afternoon that the drizzle will dissipate. Cloud coverage will slowly break apart late afternoon/evening, thus sfc temps will rise into the uppr 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Tonight as cloud coverage breaks sfc temps will fall into the uppr 40s to low 50s. Fog development also looks promising tonight. Previous forecast discussion... 300 AM EDT... For Saturday night, weak ridging will briefly move over the area resulting in skies becoming mainly clear with light winds. This will result in a good chance for some valley fog to develop by morning as temps cool to dew points. Lows will be cool...mostly upper 40s to low 50s. For Sunday, early morning valley fog quickly burns off with some sunshine before clouds thicken up ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Most of the day should be dry but we do introduce a chance of showers and the risk of thunder to the western southern tier by late day. The warm advection pattern developing ahead of this system will result in 850 mb temps rising to around 12 C which will result in highs generally reaching the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 am update... Main concern in the short term is focused around the passage of a cold front and the increased potential for showers and a few isolated weak storms...mainly Sunday night and Monday morning. Will also see a second front move through Tuesday afternoon with more showers and isolated storms. Upper level ridging will be shifting to e/ne Sunday evening as the next upper low drops in from central Canada across the ern Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday morning. A lead short wave ahead of the main cutoff low will have a surface front associated with it and a narrow corridor of deep layer moisture and strong dynamics. Elevated instability should be sufficient for a few weak storms through Monday morning. The main threats will be cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds. The heaviest precip is expected to move in from the west/sw around midnight along the Twin Tiers and the Finger lakes...and track to the e/ne through the morning hours fairly quickly. The deep layer moisture is expected to move to the east ahead of the front with a wedge of drier air filtering in on the back side. There will likely be enough broad large scale lifting going on to keep a relative abundance of clouds around through the rest of Memorial Day, and possibly a few isolated rain showers, but the threat for continuous rain through the holiday afternoon/evening is fairly low. A few breaks in the clouds cannot be ruled out, but given the pattern, not very optimistic. Morning rain is expected to amount to a quarter to half inch at most. Weak ridging and a drier air mass Monday night/Tuesday morning will likely keep weather conditions quiet. Can`t rule out a stray sprinkle or periods of drizzle though. A secondary front will slide in from the west late Tuesday morning and increase the potential for a few rain showers through noon. This front will interact with a gradually destabilizing boundary layer Tue afternoon...BL CAPE around 200-500 J/kg, steep lapse rates...to produce a better chance of scattered showers and storms. Thunderstorms should remain weak. May see another tenth to quarter of an inch. Temperatures will remain steady and nearly seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 am update... The parent upper low across Canada will rotate ewd Tuesday night through Friday and bring a slug of cooler air south across NY and PA late this week...along with periods of showers and storms. The upper low will have a series of embedded waves rotate around it as it tracks through Quebec...which will likely trigger the showers. The threat for storms is tough to nail down at this point. If an embedded wave swings through central NY/ne PA during peak heating of the afternoon, the convective potential will be enhanced with steeper lapse rates and more instability. The one limiting factor will be the presence of cooler air within the boundary layer and the lack of any significant deep layer moisture. So, will continue with chance pops during the afternoon/evening hours Wednesday and Thursday and lower slight chc pops during the morning and over night hours. The upper low begins to lift out of the area Thursday night and most of the area starts to become under the influence of upper level ridging and weak warm air advection. Temperatures will slowly warm back into the lower/mid 70s as the work week comes to an end...and the potential for rain decreases under weak high pressure. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low stratus persists into this morning with IFR likely until 14z for KBGM while KITH/KSYR will continue to fluctuate between Fuel alternate MVFR and IFR until 14z. Conditions are slightly better at KAVP and KELM where fuel alternate MVFR will persist until mid morning with cigs lifting beyond this time. All sites are expected to be VFR by 18z. Skies clear tonight as a ridge briefly moves in and this will set up favorable conditions for valley fog at KELM with IFR likely beginning around 8z. Remaining sites stay VFR. Surface winds will be light (5 kt or less) throughout the period. Outlook... Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday through Wednesday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and perhaps thunder. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT/RRM AVIATION...KAH/PCF

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