Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281128 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 728 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy fog and developing showers can be expected this morning, with mild temperatures today. A cold front will move through this afternoon, accompanied by rain. An area of high pressure, over eastern Canada, will then build across the region Wednesday and Thursday, to bring drier weather with cooler yet seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 215 AM update... A wet and gray late March day in store. Mild temperatures, with dewpoints reaching into mid 40s-near 50 range, will accelerate melting for areas that still have snowpack on the ground. Though rain amounts will not be very much, it will combine with snowmelt to lead to potential minor flood issues within the Upper Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna basins; as rises occur in the rivers over the next couple of days. Please read Hydrology section near the bottom of this Area Forecast Discussion for further details. Clouds are increasing in the west-southwest flow across the region as wave of low pressure makes its way up the Ohio River Valley. A lead cluster of showers even popped up around Hazleton and is crossing the Poconos. Latest NAM run seems to have initialized to current conditions rather poorly, thus I am be leaning more on non-NAM high resolution models including HRRR- RAP-ARW-NMM. These models allow batch of showers to move across the Twin Tiers region in fairly quick order this morning, just ahead of the upper wave and move up the frontal zone setting up southwest-northeast across the area. Further north, showers will have a harder time reaching across and beyond the New York Thruway, though still a pretty good chance of at least drizzle and light rain at times. And areawide, as lower levels continue to moisten up, patchy fog can be expected. As cold front oozes southeast this afternoon, showers will continue, especially from Towanda-Binghamton-Cooperstown areas southward. Highs will be generally be 50-55 degree range in Central NY. However, temperatures in Northeast PA will manage mid-to-upper 50s for highs, with dewpoints getting near 50. This along with good proximity to upper wave will generate just a little bit of instability and thus a slight chance of thunder to accompany the showers with the front this afternoon. Rain showers will then gradually dissipate northwest to southeast into tonight. Colder air mass will infiltrate the region, with lows eventually reach lower 30s to near 40. Rain will be long gone before temperatures settle down that far. All told we are expecting areal averages of about a quarter to half inch of rain in Northeast PA and Sullivan County NY; a tenth to third of an inch for the Southern Tier-Finger Lakes- Upper Susquehanna areas of NY, and likely less than an tenth of an inch along and north of the NY Thruway. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 250 AM update... Canadian high pressure swinging across the Great Lakes will keep the weather quiet and temperatures on the cool side for Wednesday and early Thursday. A more southerly flow will develop Thursday ahead of the next approaching storm system. Temperatures in the mid-40s on Wednesday will rise to around 50 on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 255 AM update... A powerful storm will move out of the central U.S. Thursday night and spread a warm front into western NY and PA. This storm will slowly track off the mid-Atlantic coast by early Saturday, setting the stage for a long period of rain showers. Morning temperatures on Friday and Saturday may be cold enough to support snow or possibly mixed precipitation, especially east of I-81. The elongated period of showers will need to be watched. Additional QPF runoff may cause hydrological issues, so we will monitor this storm closely. High pressure will bring a brief respite of quiet weather late Saturday into Sunday before another frontal system approaches early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wave of low pressure will bring batch of rain across the terminals this morning, then reaching up to KSYR-KRME late morning into early afternoon. This rain will moisten things up, then lower levels will especially saturate as cold front oozes through later this morning through afternoon, with eventual very light northerly wind developing. Rain may diminish to patchy drizzle before ending behind the front tonight, but fuel alternate required to IFR ceilings will persist for KBGM-KITH- KAVP-KELM, though KSYR-KRME should improve to higher end MVFR. OUTLOOK... Wednesday morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions early, especially for the NY terminals, but clouds eventually scatter. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR. Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... 315 PM EDT Monday UPDATE... Issued a Flood Watch for the minor flood potential in the North Branch Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins, including both small streams and a few points on the main stem rivers. Walton is currently the only point forecast by MARFC to flood, but others in the Susquehanna basin are close. Still expecting prolific snow melt, especially on Tuesday. Rain amounts next 36 hours seem rather minimal at about one half inch across the area of concern. Reports from a drive around by our COOP manager today indicated still about 6-10" of widespread snow cover in higher elevations of the Western Catskills, with estimated SWE in excess of 2" still likely, so the potential is there for sure. Without evidence in the models of a major rain event, we should get by this with only inconvenience flood issues. Looking ahead, though, the pattern definitely has the potential for being unsettled at times straight into the first week in April and we will need to remain vigilant. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late Wednesday night for PAZ038-039. NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late Wednesday night for NYZ045-046-055>057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MDP HYDROLOGY...

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