Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 210728 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 328 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG. BEST 50A HGT FALLS WORK INTO THE FCST AREA 18-00Z AS MAIN TROF AXIS APRCHS. NAM SHOWS CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500 J/KG RNG TDA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACRS CNTRL NY. HOWEVER..THE GFS DOES SHOW CAPES ARND 500 J/KG LATE TDA AT AVP WHERE LOW LVL THERMAL RDG AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. NOT A CLEAR CUT SCENARIO TDA...SVR WX CHECKLIST INDICATED POTNL FOR A FEW BKN LINES WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL BUT NO SIG SVR. RUC SUGGESTS PRE-FNTL TROF WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTN. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM12 IS OVERDONE WITH IT`S DEPICTION OF CONVECTION LATE TDA ACRS CNTRL NY AND LEANED MORE TWDS THE GFS/LCL WRF/RUC DEPICTION. LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY. RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA. AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 AM UPDATE... MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. UL TROF WL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST BY WED MRNG AND HIPRES AT BOTH SFC AND ALOFT WL BE BUILDING IN. H5 RIDGE APPCHG 590 HEIGHTS WL BE COMMON THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. MED RANGE MODELS ALONG WITH GFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT BUT DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS CAN BE FOUND. THE 00Z EC INDICATES A WEAKNESS OVR THE TN/OH VLYS WHILE THE GFS/CMC KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HV ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER ON OUR DRY STRETCH OF WX AS 1030MB SFC HIGH SITS OVR NERN U.S. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RUN ARND 565DM THROUGHOUT THE PD. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RUNNING 1-2 SD ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS ARND 50. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND IS WORKING NW FROM NEW JERSEY BUT HAS STOPPED ITS PROGRESS JUST SHORT OF AVP. HAVE REMOVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM ALL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING AT AVP, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AN OVC CIRRUS DECK TO START OFF TAF PERIOD. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. AS FROPA OCCURS STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 03Z MONDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20-30KTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND CONTINUE TO GUST. AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AFTER 00Z AT AVP. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...PVN/RRM AVIATION...PVN

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