Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 252229 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 629 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of our weather into Wednesday bringing warm and dry afternoons, and foggy nights. Wednesday, a cold front will push through the area with a chance of showers. Cooler air will follow the front later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 550 PM EDT Update... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Forecast is in great shape. So far, two record high temps were broken today. The first one was set at Binghamton, 87, the old record was set in 2007. The second record was broken today at Avoca, 92, the old record was 89, set in 1908. For more information about the forecast, please read the previous forecast discussion below. Previous forecast discussion below... Massive ridge locked between Maria and northern stream systems over Canada will move little before Wednesday. This will keep the warm and dry weather in the near term, although some weakening of the ridge is evident on Tuesday which may result in slightly lower afternoon highs. Still, record or near record highs are possible tomorrow afternoon. Light winds and dew points in the mid and upper 60s will result in another round of dense fog overnight, especially in the valleys Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridge will begin to subside across the Northeast as a weak cold front slides in from the west across the Great Lakes and Maria approaches nwd along the Atlantic coast. Much of NY/PA will be situated between these features and remain in a fairly warm unstable s/swly flow into Wednesday. Will likely see temperatures into the 80s once again, with dew points in the 60s making it feel quite humid for the last week of September. The front moving in from the west will be the main forcing mechanism for showers and possibly a few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Around 100-400 J/kg of ML CAPE will be accompanied by 30 kt of deep shear. However limiting factor will be lack of deep moisture and weak L57 lapse rates. For these reasons, don`t think thunderstorms will be too widespread and will remain below severe levels. The main result of the cold front will be to kick Maria further to the east away from the coast, and also to usher in a much cooler air mass. The synoptic flow behind the front will remain cyclonic and cool aloft...which will likely promote isolated rain showers into Thursday...mainly for central NY. Temperatures will be more seasonal Thursday as well with highs in the mid to upper 60s...close to 70. Dew points in the upper 40s and lower 50s...and breezy n/nw winds will make it feel more like Fall too. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak ridging aloft Thursday night should keep weather conditions quiet before the next s/w rotates sewd around the base of a long wave trough over much of ern Canada and the Northeast. This wave will bring additional chances for light rain showers Friday and Saturday, but with minimal precipitation expected as the air mass will be quite dry. The trough will also have a re-enforcing shot of cool Canadian air with it...which will adjust temperatures down even more. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s...and on Saturday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will bring another mainly clear night and foggy morning to our forecast terminals. River valley fog will form between 5z and 7z, affecting KELM and KITH. KELM will see visibility restrictions of 1/4SM to 3/4SM in the predawn hours, with ceilings of 100-200 feet between 8z and 12z. VFR conditions and light winds are forecast for Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning...VFR except for fog possible late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other terminals as well at times. Midday Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...DJP

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