Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 251038 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 638 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 215 AM update... Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s across our forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 220 AM update... The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around 23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree readings possible. A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible severe threat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast. 245 PM EDT Update... The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this afternoon. Fog is not expected again tonight due to dry airmass and lack of rainfall. Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur. OUTLOOK... Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for KELM. Sunday night Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through. Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...KAH/RRM AVIATION...RRM

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