Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281806 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 206 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWERED CLOUD AMOUNTS NOW BUT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS CUMULUS FORM. NO SHOWERS TODAY. WITH MAX TEMPS COMING IN COLDER LOWERED A FEW DEGREES. FOR FIRE WEATHER...PROBABLY HAVE THE WIND WITH GUSTS BUT RH IS TOO HIGH. RH WITH LOWER THAN FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPS. ANOTHER SPOT REQUEST TODAY. 320 AM UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS WE FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE THE EFFECTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. LATEST IR SATELLITE EVEN SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER VERMONT AND QUEBEC. WE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A STUBBORN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST UNDERNEATH OUR INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. WILL CONTINUE OUR MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST, BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE MIXED IN. AFTERNOON MAXES TODAY WARMER THAN MONDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO 60S COMMON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 320 AM UPDATE... MORE APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN OUR DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A NEW CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NEW CUT OFF LOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUDS. THE NAM AND EURO CONTINUE TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW, IMPLYING OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL BE RATHER LOW AND HIGHEST THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU LIVE. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST NORTH, WHICH WOULD BE A WETTER SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AND WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND, THEY WON`T BE OVERLY HIGH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS, 40S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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2 PM TUE UPDATE... FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY TRENDING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...AND FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WITH OUR RECENT COOL WEATHER...IT IS EASY TO FORGET JUST HOW MUCH HIGHER THOSE CLIMATE NUMBERS HAVE BECOME...FOR EXAMPLE AVERAGE HIGH 60 AVERAGE LOW 40 TODAY /TUE/ FOR BINGHAMTON AIRPORT...64/42 FOR AVOCA...AND 63/41 SYRACUSE. MODELS AGREE IN BIGGER PICTURE THAT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH LATEWEEK...THEN MOVE UP ONLY AS CLOSE AS OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD FRI NGT-SAT AND EVEN FURTHER AWAY SUNDAY. WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT...WE WILL MANAGE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING ITS HIGH EARLY MAY SUN ANGLE...AND THUS REALIZE THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND BEYOND/ THAT CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST IS MORE TYPICAL. THE TRAILING ENDS OF A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MAY TRY TO DRIFT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT ZERO...BUT THOSE FEATURES NOT ENOUGH TO HANG MENTIONABLE SHOWERS ON AT THIS TIME AND OVERALL LOOKS PRETTY DRY. GFS-ECMWF DISAGREE ON WHEN THE NEXT FRONT TRIES TO ENTER THE REGION....BUT AGREE ON MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FRONT BEING ON THE WEAK SIDE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MON NGT-TUE TIME FRAME BECAUSE OF IT...BUT OF LITTLE IMPACT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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18Z UPDATE... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. BKN-SCT DECK THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY AROUND 5-6 KFT AGL. CONFIDENCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIG TONIGHT HAS LOWERED BECAUSE OF DRYING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EVIDENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN NW- WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL APPEARS THE DRYING SURFACE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT. NW WINDS IN THE LOWER TEENS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SUBSIDE TOWARDS 00Z TO 8 KTS OR LESS AND FOR SOME TERMINALS BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. NW WINDS AGAIN DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT ONLY ABOUT 8-10 KTS. .OUTLOOK... WED AFTN-THU MRNG...MAINLY VFR. THU AFTN-FRI...MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SKIMS BY THE REGION. FRI NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MDP

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