Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 082324 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 624 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Lake snow showers will move across central NY late this afternoon, before a stronger band develops to the north tonight. Cold temperatures and lake snows will continue into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 315 pm update... Things are evolving as expected late this afternoon, with healthy lake-effect bands off both Erie and Ontario. First, we`ll deal with the Lake Erie band. Radar trends and the latest high-resolution model output support a well formed band paralleling the I-86/Route 17 and I-88 corridors through 7-8 pm. Although the band itself should be dropping slowly southward with time, we think it will have enough intensity/residence time in most areas for a quick coating-2" of snow. Localized 3-4" amounts are not out of the question. Driving will become locally hazardous. As the mixed-layer flow veers into a WNW heading after 8-10 pm, the Lake Erie band should weaken over the twin tiers, as it contracts closer to the shoreline in western NY. As for the Lake Ontario band, it should remain fairly intense (long fetch across Lake Ontario plus some upstream enhancement from southern Lake Huron) through the first half of tonight, as it slowly drops down into/through northern Oneida. We think hourly snowfall rates of 1-2" are likely, with easily 6-12" in the more persistent bands by the pre-dawn hours Friday. It still appears that a secondary low-level trough will sweep southeastward through the forecast area towards daybreak. As this occurs, a sharp veering of the winds to NW (300-320) should cause multi-bands off Lake Ontario to develop, and then shift southward towards the Thruway Corridor, as well as Cortland, Chenango, and Otsego counties. Thus, it still appears reasonable to let the northern Oneida Warning expire by 7 am Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 pm update... Current indications are that a steady-state 300-310 flow will lead to persistent multi-bands throughout our advisory area (southern Oneida, Madison, Onondaga, Cortland, Chenango and Otsego counties) during the day Friday. Intensity, though, may be highly variable during the day, as low-level instability could translate into cellular type/less organized activity for a time. Outside of the main Lake Ontario bands, it will be blustery, with a few flurries and lighter snow showers. Friday night, there are hints in the model data that a Georgian Bay connection may become established, leading to possible intensification and consolidation of a primary Lake Ontario band for a while through southern Cayuga, southern Onondaga, and southern Madison counties. Again elsewhere, flurries and lighter snow showers are foreseen. On Saturday, the low-level flow should begin backing, with the bands shifting back northward and gradually weakening during the course of the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 125 PM update... The eastern trough will become more amplified during the long term period as multiple waves carve out the base and drop it into the Ohio Valley. A storm will develop and slide up the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, though this storm appears weaker and a little slower than previously forecast. Temperatures with this system appear cold enough to support snow for the duration, with the exception of Monday afternoon, when rain showers may mix with the snow. The trough dives into Ontario Province early Wednesday. Much colder air will descend upon NY and PA for mid week, although the very cold Arctic air slides eastward into Quebec and never gives us a direct shot. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Migratory lake-effect snow bands will be the primary impetus for restrictive conditions throughout the valid TAF period. Lake Erie band continues to produce temporary IFR or lower conditions at KITH and KBGM this evening and may begin to impact KELM by 02Z. Lake Ontario band remains just to the north of Oneida county, but is expected to drop south later this evening and tonight and impact KRME and KSYR with IFR or lower conditions. Conditions at KAVP to the south should remain unrestricted through the period with occasional flurries. The Lake Ontario bands will be the main focus later tonight and into Friday over central NY, affecting mostly KSYR, with IFR or worse conditions. Elsewhere, mostly MVFR- VFR is anticipated, with anything lower probably brief in nature. OUTLOOK... Saturday...Occasional IFR or worse conditions will remain at play for KSYR and KRME in lake-effect snow, with lingering restrictions more transient at KITH, KELM, and KBGM. KAVP should stay primarily VFR. Sunday through Monday...Widespread restrictions likely developing in light snow, a wintry mix, or light rain, depending on the time and location. Tuesday...Restrictions still possible in lingering lower ceilings and snow showers, especially our central NY terminals.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ017-018-036-037-044>046. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ009. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...BJT/MLJ

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