Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 210552 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1252 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Most areas will likely remain dry into Sunday. Moisture will increase from the west Sunday afternoon, with increasing odds of seeing light rain showers or drizzle. As temperatures cool Sunday night it could freeze. Rain will become more likely Monday and Tuesday, as a storm system moves through the region. A slightly cooler airmass is expected behind the system for mid week, along with scattered snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 am update... Temperatures again showing a wide range from around 20 to the mid 30s. Lowered temps. Skies only have high clouds so little insolation. Winds have become light to calm across most of the area. 6 PM Update... Things are pretty quiet this evening, and forecast is in fine shape. Other than further slowing down the eventual increase of cloud cover overnight, and tweaking temperatures/dewpoints/etc. for current and near-term conditions, no changes were made for this update. Previous discussion... Partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the region at mid-afternoon. Observational data shows a cold front extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into eastern Quebec. With a primarily zonal flow indicated across our region by water vapor bands, this front is expected to remain north of our region. This will result in a dry and quiet weather night across the forecast area, along with some increasing cloud cover. The next storm system should start affecting our region by tomorrow afternoon. Over the next 12 hours or so, the upper- level trough will eject into the Plains and aid in developing surface low pressure over the High Plains by tomorrow afternoon. A broad southwesterly low-level flow, in advance of the approaching storm system, is expected over our region Sunday. This will allow cloudy skies to continue through the day. Weak isentropic ascent (at the 295K and 300K theta levels) should interact with the increasing moisture to result in small rain possibilities for Sunday. I expect the odds of seeing rain will initially be seen over southwestern parts of our forecast area mid- to late Sunday morning, then gradually spread northeast through the afternoon. Most rainfall amounts should be rather light through Sunday afternoon (generally less than 0.01 inch). Sunday`s high temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees cooler than what we saw today given the expected increase in cloud cover over the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... There will be a gradual increase in moisture through the short term as a closed upper low and surface system spins up over the center of the country. Earlier runs had more cold air seeping down into New England from Ontario bringing the risk of freezing drizzle and rain. That threat has lessened as the cold air remains further north and east, so while there is the threat of some freezing precip over the far east and north, very little ice accumulation is expected. Despite the closed low, the system moves east and north fairly quickly with the surface cold front passing the area by midday Tuesday. Ahead of the front, there will be about a 6 hour period of light to moderate rain with QPF averaging around a half inch to three quarters. Most of the overrunning rain associated with the warm front will fall north of the area Monday leaving the area cloudy but mild for the first day of the work week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold air advection and a northwest flow will bring lake effect snow showers into the area into early Thursday. Air is not all that cold, bottoming out at around -16C at 850mb, so the lake effect will be limited to snow showers. Flow becomes more sheared with time as the surface high drops in with a more northerly flow, and the 850mb and 925mb northwest. Nose of the surface high will be over the region Thursday night ending the leftovers. High slides east as the upper ridge builds on Friday with the warm air advection beginning again in earnest. This should allow for temps above normal at he end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1230 am update... Ceilings will gradually lower late tonight from the north into RME but little else. MVFR cigs by 09z then fuel alternate at 11z. MVFR cigs also moving in from the southwest bringing MVFR cigs to all sites in the afternoon. Delayed the onset a little. Ceilings further drop to fuel alternate around 00z and to IFR at ITH/BGM. SW winds at around 5 kts or light and variable this morning. This afternoon winds shift to the south but still light. Outlook... Sunday overnight...Reduced flight categories are expected to continue. Wintry mix of precipitation possible. Monday through Tuesday...Flight category reductions continue under periods of RA. Tuesday night through Wednesday...Possible continuation of flight category reductions and a chance of SHSN. Thursday...VFR under high pressure.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAB/TAC NEAR TERM...DAB/MDP/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...TAC

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