Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 260558 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 158 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. SUNDAY, BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOLER, WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1205 AM... WHILE NOT SEVERE...WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY CARRYING THROUGH FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG UPPER WAVE...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THESE STORMS WILL FINISH UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. 10 PM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATES. FIRST COLD FRONT LEAVING THE SE ZONES WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BACK IN NY THERE WAS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH IT. A SECONDARY FRONT NEAR ROC/BUF IS COMING. WITH THIS THE BEST CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS YET TODAY. THIS ALSO WILL MOVE INTO THE FINGER LAKES. SOME TSTORMS SHOULD SURVIVE BUT THE TREND WILL BE DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MESO MODELS DOING WELL SO FAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED WITH THIS NEXT BATCH. LATE TONIGHT BARELY CHANGED WITH LES SETTING UP ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS LES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 120 PM UPDATE... STRONG S/WV HAS MADE IT INTO SRN ONTARIO AS OF 17Z WITH LINE OF SHOWERS GETTING EVER CLOSER TO NRN LK ONTARIO. QUESTION CENTERS ARND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WL MAKE IT INTO CWA THIS AFTN. PLAN TO CONT JUST SCTD SHOWER MENTION MAINLY FOR FAR NRN ZONES AFT 20Z AND SHOWERS WL QUICKLY WORK THRU BY 00Z. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, HV RMVD THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN AS NO CGS OR IN-CLD LGTNG HAS BEEN NOTED AT ALL TDA OVR CANADA. ANOTHER WV ALONG WITH MAIN CDFNT WL FOLLOW ON INITIAL S/WV`S HEELS QUICKLY BHND. AFT INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS QUICKLY MVS THRU AFT 00Z EXPECT TO SEE DVLPMNT UPSTREAM AND MV IN ACRS WRN ZONES TWD MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALSO BE A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS ACRS CNTRL NY OVRNGT, MAYBE AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AFT THIS TIME H8 CAA WL COMMENCE RAPIDLY AND LKLY RESULT IN DVLPMNT OF LK EFFECT SHOWERS IN 295 DEGREE FLOW. DELTA T`S INCRS TO > +13C AFT 07Z AND EXPECT CVRG TO WARRANT LKLY POPS TWD 12Z IN NW FLOW. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS TO BE WRMR THAN LAST NGT EVEN WITH CAA OCCURRING. PLENTY OF CLDS WL RESULT IN "WRMR" TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT. EXCEPTION WL BE NEPA WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 40 IN DEEPER VLYS, POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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230 PM UPDATE... LK EFFECT SHOWERS WL CONT IN NW FLOW (290-300 FLOW) DRG THE DAY TOMORROW WITH H8 TEMPS BLO 0C. SKIES WL BE MOCLDY OVR CNTRL NY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA. WINDS WL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW WITH WIND GUSTS OCNLY UP TO 25KTS DRG THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT IN THE LWR 50S TOMORROW AND FEEL LIKE A TYPICAL AUTUMN DAY FOR THE AREA. UPR LVL RIDGE WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN LATE SUN NGT AS CLDS CLR FM SW TO NE AFT MIDNIGHT. NAM DELAYS CLRNG UNTIL 12Z MONDAY BUT HV SIDED MORE TWD GFS, EC AND CMC FOR SUN NGT. NW FLOW WL KEEP MOCLDY SKIES AND ISOLD SHOWERS OVR FAR NE SXNS UNTIL CLOSER TO 09Z. GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH AFT 00Z MONDAY AND BEGIN TO BCM MORE WRLY OVRNGT. HIPRES, BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT, WL BE SMACK OVR THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WL LEAD TO MOSUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS WL RISE INTO THE M/U 50S UNDER FULL SUN EVEN THO MIXING IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 900MB. HIGH CIRRUS WL BEGIN TO OVRSPRD THE NW LATE IN THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WMFNT LOOKS TO MV THRU MON NGT/TUE MRNG AND THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS IN THE U40S. EXPECT JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH SHOWERS OVR THE FINGER LKS OVRNGT. CWA WL BE IN THE WM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LKLY GETTING UP INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTN.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 245 PM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH THE BALMY TEMPS OF EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE END OF THE WEEK TOWARD HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN NIGHT LOOK INTERESTING. THE OVERALL SETUP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION MUCH MORE RAPIDLY, PULLING IN VERY COLD AIR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 850 TEMPS DROP TO AS LOW AS -8C TO -12C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE AROUND THIS WOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, EVEN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z EURO IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM, AND THIS WOULD MEAN THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WOULD BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST, THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SO WHILE COLD, 850S ARE ONLY IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY JUST RAIN. WPC GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER I DIDN`T WANT TO LEAN TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN. I DID WANT TO SHOW SOME MENTION OF SNOW GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPS ON WPC GUIDANCE. FOR NOW I HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX HALLOWEEN NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. A EURO SOLUTION WOULD STILL SUPPORT THIS, WHILE IF THE GFS IS RIGHT A WHITER SOLUTION WOULD BE NEEDED. ON DAY 7, WE ARE STILL PLENTY FAR OUT FOR A BROAD SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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06Z SUN UPDATE... BAND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD ATTM...AND IS NOW SAFELY REMOVED FROM OUR TERMINAL SITES. A BRIEF PD OF CLEARING BEHIND THE ABV MENTIONED ACTIVITY...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUD COVER TWDS DAYBREAK...WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW REGIME. A FEW LAKE- EFFECT -SHRA MAY ALSO DVLP...BUT VSBY`S WILL LIKELY STAY AOA 6SM. ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS MRNG OVER MANY OF OUR CNY TERMINAL SITES (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM)...CIG BASES SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIG STORY TDY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE EXPECTED. THIS EVE...WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT CIG BASES MAY ALSO WELL LWR...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ANTICIPATED BY 02-03Z. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...VFR. LTR TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS. THU...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVF/TAC NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF/TAC SHORT TERM...PVF LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...DGM/MLJ

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