Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 260104 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 804 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE SYRACUSE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE... L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST. AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS. 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH 24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT. FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2 JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY. CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE 12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW. IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM EST UPDATE... CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 300 PM EST UPDATE... HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS, AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR, AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH. OUTLOOK... WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP. THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME. SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...HEDEN

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