Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 271704 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 104 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN)...ALG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z. 945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM. ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG. BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS. OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS. WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000 FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD MORNING. .OUTLOOK... .THU-FRI...VFR. .SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR. .SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DJP

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