Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261911 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary, will slowly cross the region on Thursday, with a good chance for more showers or thunderstorms. Friday, a low pressure system along the east coast, could linger shower activity, especially over northeast Pennsylvania. This weekend looks drier, as high pressure builds down from eastern Canada. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 245 pm update... Lower clouds have been fairly stubborn so far today near and east of the I-81 corridor. However, we still see signs that it will gradually break up late this afternoon and evening. Later tonight, clouds should thicken up once again, especially across our northern zones, as a frontal boundary and mid-level short-wave press down from the NW. Owing to the approach of these features, we continue to introduce a chance of showers (20-30%) towards daybreak across northern portions of the forecast area. For the southern tier of NY and NEPA, although it should stay rain-free overnight, an area of lower stratus clouds may form once again, especially over the Catskills and the Pocono plateau. Lows by daybreak should range in the 60s. Thursday, a good chance of morning showers across our northern zones, should evolve to scattered afternoon convection (mostly for NY`s southern tier and NEPA), as the aforementioned upper- level trough and surface frontal zone continue to influence the region. There are mixed signals regarding stronger/severe storm development Thursday afternoon, with better instability for NY`s southern tier and NEPA (ML CAPE of roughly 700-1200 j/kg), and better deep-layered shear farther north. Also, upper-level jet support looks meager. For now, we`ll continue to mention the possibility of isolated severe, wind producing storms in our hazardous weather outlook. Highs Thursday will range from the 70s-near 80. Thursday night, as the surface boundary sinks southward, and better upper-level support begins to shift towards the mid- Atlantic states, the better chance of shower activity will also transition southward with time. Late at night, we`re advertising likely probabilities for showers in our far southern zones, with only limited chances up to the north. As the boundary layer stabilizes, thunder should also become fairly isolated. Lows again will range mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The main concern for this period will be low pressure system tracking by to the south Friday into Friday night which still has the potential to bring some heavier rainfall to NE PA. To start the period Friday morning, a diffuse frontal boundary will be located over PA with a broad but weak low pressure system beginning to develop near West Virginia. During the day a compact upper level low dives SE from The Great Lakes toward Ohio and spurring development of the surface low as it tracks east across southern PA. There is still model disagreement regarding the exact track and timing of this system however at this time, all models except the GFS bring the low far enough north to bring rain back into NE PA so we have raised POPs here to likely. The main question is whether any heavier rain will make it in as NE PA will be near the northern edge of the instability. Given PWATs which may rise to 1.5 to 1.75 inch range, if enough instability makes it in heavy rain amounts will be possible as indicated by the NAM and the GEM Global. At this point most of central NY looks to most likely see more of a glancing blow from this system so kept POPs here in chance category or lower though the day should be mostly cloudy. Temps will continue to be cool for this time of year with highs generally in the 70s. Friday night into Saturday, there continues to be some uncertainty in the models regarding not just the exact placement and track of the aforementioned low but how quickly it moves out. The latest ECMWF would actually keep light rain going into a good portion of Saturday for NE PA as it closes upper low off near the Delmarva. For this reason did keep slight chance POPs going through Saturday morning for this area. Otherwise general trend should be for partial clearing and drying trend through Saturday as low moves away with high pressure building across the Great Lakes. The gradient between this high and the departing low will result in a gusty and cool breeze out of the north so once again, below average highs for late July with highs mostly in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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In the big picture, the persistent troughiness that has been in place over the area will relax it`s grip during this period allowing high pressure to be more dominant. This will result in an overall mainly dry and quiet forecast for the long range period. To start the period, high pressure builds in for Saturday night through Sunday. This will bring clearing skies Saturday night with a partly to mostly sunny day to follow for Sunday. Temperatures will remain cool with lows Saturday night in the low to mid 50s and high Sunday still in the 70s. Heading into Monday, no major changes from Sunday as the high remains dominant over the area. As the cooler airmass begins to moderate this will result in warming temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By next Tuesday and Wednesday, weak shortwaves moving through the upper flow may trigger some isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms but otherwise the mainly dry trend continues with seasonable temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail through this evening. Later tonight/early Thursday, an area of lower stratus clouds is expected to develop over NEPA and portions of NY`s southern tier. At this time, confidence in restrictive ceilings (fuel alternate) is highest at KBGM and KAVP. There is some potential for lower cloud formation at KELM, KITH, and KRME, but confidence is not high enough for inclusion in the terminal forecasts at this time. On Thursday, showers are expected to develop during the morning at KSYR and KRME. At this early juncture, we`ll go with unrestricted conditions, with showers expected to be fairly light in nature. Thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon over portions of CNY, but very likely after 18z. Outlook... Friday...Restrictions in ceilings/rain are most likely to occur at KAVP, with some potential at KBGM. Other sites will most likely feature VFR conditions. Saturday-Monday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...MLJ

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