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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240659
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A seasonably strong cold front moves through this morning with
falling temperatures this afternoon. Rain showers and mostly
cloudy skies persist through the morning into the early
afternoon with clearing skies this evening. A cold night is
expected tonight with lows falling into the 20s for much of the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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300 AM Update...

Precipitation has continued to struggle to saturate the lower
atmosphere this morning so chances of precipitation were lowered
further through about 5 am. A strong cold front is already
moving through the Great Lakes and will move into western NY
this morning. Day time highs will likely be reached in the
morning with falling temperatures through the afternoon once the
front is through by around 2 pm. Many of the CAMs want to get
some showers and possibly some thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Forecast soundings mostly look to stable and dry to
get some showers going but in NEPA there will be a brief window
where the cold air advection aloft will help steepen the lapse
rates and generate some CAPE just after peak heating. Decided to
keep a slight chance of thunder in the grids for now only in
the Wyoming valley where temperatures will be able to climb into
the 60s ahead of the front. With 850 mb temperatures getting
close to the 13C temperature difference with Lake Ontario, also
increased chances of precipitation in the northern Finger Lakes
for possible lake effect rain showers later this morning into
the afternoon.

Dry air advects in quickly this afternoon into early evening
with precipitation drying up by sunset. Clouds will clear with
surface high pressure building in so lows tonight were lowered a
couple of degrees. The boundary layer looks to at least try to
stay mixed which could limit radiational cooling but given how
dry the airmass is, any areas that decouple in the evening with
the whole night to radiate may fall into the teens. Thursday
begins to moderate but with a low level ridge building in, there
will be little to no temperature advection at 850 mb so with
the colder air in place, highs will stay at or below average in
the low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM update...

A quiet period is in store as high pressure will be in control
with dry air. The high starts over the Great Lakes Thursday then
drops southeast through our area Thursday night to be on the
coast Friday. Aloft an upper level trough slowly moves east as a
ridge axis moves to Ohio Friday. Low level winds start out from
the north then shift to the south and southwest Friday. This
will provide warming. High temperatures go from the 50s Thursday
to the upper 50s to mid 60s Friday. Sunny skies Thursday become
mostly sunny Friday. Lows will be in the upper 20s and lower
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM update...

The upper level ridging expands over our area this weekend then
moves slowly east on Tuesday. Despite the high upper level
heights this will be an unsettled period. A north to south warm
front moves east through CNY/NEPA on Saturday with rain
showers. A stationary front will be across northern NY keeping
some showers around Saturday night into Sunday with better
chances in NY. Sunday night into Monday with the upper level
ridge stronger it should be dry. More showers will approach late
Monday through Tuesday with better chances in CNY again. With
the warm and increasingly moist air mass, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday.

With the ridge and the deep southwest flow temperatures will
swing to be well above normal for late April. High temperatures
go from the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday to be in the 70s
Sunday to Tuesday. Temperatures peak Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Tuesday could be just as warm if the system slows.
Lows start out in the 30s Friday night then rise into the 50s
Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry air has prevailed in the low levels so VFR conditions
persist at all terminals and based off of upstream observations
will likely stay VFR for a few more hours. Decided to put in
MVFR tempos rather than predominant as cigs likely will not fall
until closer to the time the cold front approaches later this
morning. Still decent low level moisture behind the cold front
will likely lead to some IFR conditions at higher elevated NY
terminals like ITH but lower confidence with IFR at other NY
terminals. BGM may sneak into some IFR at times but confidence
is low and a tempo may be added for the 12Z update. Dry air
moves in this afternoon with VFR conditions returning to all
terminals by 0Z.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR, possible fog at ELM.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...AJG/KL