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406
FXUS61 KBGM 171943
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
343 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pleasant spring afternoon with partly cloudy skies and
seasonable temperatures. Rain showers return this evening as a
low pressure system slowly moves in from the west, lasting into
Saturday afternoon. A stretch of welcomed dry and warm weather
is expected from Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A pretty nice spring afternoon across the area with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A
shortwave trough currently over Michigan will move into the
region later this evening. A plume of deep moisture is showing
up in guidance from the surface to 500mb along the leading edge
of the trough. This will bring rain showers to the western part
of the CWA by mid-evening, spreading from west to east. This
rain will have to battle mid-level dry air currently over the
region so its progression eastward will be slow. Also slowing
the progression will be high pressure building into the region
from Nova Scotia. This allows the surface low to slow to a crawl
as it spins over western NY. This, combined with the ESE flow
from the low spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast pumping in low
level moisture to the region will allow for rain to fall into
the Saturday morning. Rain should taper off starting mid morning
as dry air works its way into the area from the north and the
surface low dissipates. The last of the shower chances should
push south of the area late afternoon. Total rainfall looks to
be between 0.1 and 0,5 inches, with areas west of I-81 seeing
the higher totals. Cloudy and cooler on Saturday thanks to the
cloud cover, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across the
region. Calm conditions last into Saturday night, with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog in
the Twin Tiers and Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

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342 PM Update

This period will feature generally quiet weather, with a significant
warming trend. A strengthening upper level ridge moves into the area
on Sunday. The flow in the low and mid levels will be northerly, but
drier air will be advecting over the area. Overall, this should lead
to mostly sunny skies after a few lingering morning clouds.Cannot
rule out a stray shower over the higher elevations, but with
the dry air advecting into the region, kept PoPs below mentionable
levels. With plenty of sunshine expected, highs are progged to
reach well into the 70s, with a few spots near 80. High pressure
remains in control Sunday night, Monday and right into Monday
night. This will continue the stretch of dry and mostly clear
weather. Upper level heights and temperatures continue to rise
over the forecast area as the ridge strengthens. Overall,
humidity levels remain on the lower side, mainly at or below
60F. As surface winds turn light southerly, temperatures are now
forecast to soar into the upper 70s to mid-80s Monday
afternoon, only falling into the 50s to low 60s overnight; these
numbers are about 10-15 degrees above average levels.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
342 PM Update

This period starts off with another mainly dry day on Tuesday, as
the upper level ridge remains in place over the region. Can`t rule
out a stray afternoon/evening thunderstorm over the Finger Lakes
region, otherwise it will be mostly sunny and very warm. As 850mb
temperatures are progged to reach +15C, daytime highs soar into the
low to mid-80s in for most locations; dew points still in the 50s to
near 60 will keep humidity levels down.

Overall, the latest guidance is slowing the next frontal system down
slightly. This means warmer temperatures could linger longer into the
middle of next week. As the upper level ridge very gradually breaks
down and shifts east, this will open the door for a shortwave
disturbance to kick off some scattered showers and t`storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, with partly sunny skies and
a southerly breeze (6-12 mph) temperature again look to reach the
low to mid-80s over the area. There remain some timing differences
in the latest guidance, but the frontal passage is looking more
likely to be sometime on Thursday now with this forecast update.
Therefore, just out ahead the front temperatures could still reach
the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. The potential is there for higher
levels of shear and instability; with scattered to numerous showers
and t`storms along and ahead of the front expected. By Friday, the
upper level trough should be moving into our area, with cooler
temperatures (back near average) and a low chance for a few rain
showers too.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region through this afternoon and into
the evening hours. Rain moves in from the west by mid evening,
bringing MVFR conditions to ELM first, spreading eastward to
BGM/ITH/AVP by the early overnight hours. MVFR conditions are
expected at these terminals through the morning hours. There are
some signals for IFR ceilings at these terminals by the very
early morning hours. ELM currently has the best chance for IFR
ceilings as they will be in the rain and higher moisture airmass
for the longest period. Confidence in IFR ceilings at
ITH/BGM/AVP is not high enough at this time to include in the
TAFs.

SYR and RME will be on the northern fringe of the precipitation,
and with southerly flow, downsloping should keep conditions VFR
through the overnight hours, with MVFR ceilings creeping into
SYR by the morning hours. RME should be VFR through the period
as dry air hangs on here longer and rain showers should be
sparse.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers
but restrictions still possible.

Monday into Tuesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC