Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281916 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 316 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around the region from late afternoon into the late evening. Some storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. High pressure will start to build back into the region on Monday resulting in dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Destabilization of the atmosphere was occurring this afternoon across west-central NY and NW PA within an area of weak low level convergence well out ahead of cold front positioned over lower Ontario. We continue to expect scattered thunderstorms to form by late this afternoon...primarily from the Southern Tier northeastward toward the Mohawk Valley...with activity continuing a few hours past sundown. SPC maintains MRGL severe risk, but latest analysis and short fuse modeling indicates discontinuity between instability and best region of bulk shear. Torrential rainfall rates within thunderstorms seem to be the higher threat today given PWAT values approaching 2 inches. Cold front translates through the region overnight. Thinking is that stabilization ahead of the front will make for little fanfare and have trimmed PoPs by late evening. Models suggest high RH in the lowest levels of the boundary layer with dry air above which may be indicative of low level cloudiness forming in the cooling airmass overnight and early Monday. High pressure and refreshing NW winds take over on Monday with increasing amounts of sunshine and seasonable temperatures from the upper 70s north to mid 80s south. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure and refreshing NW winds take over on Monday with increasing sunshine and seasonable temperatures from the upper 70s north to mid 80s south. The surface high crests overhead Monday night into Tuesday with generally clear skies and light winds. Tuesday night should radiate rather well and have trimmed overnight mins just a bit with values ranging from the low-mid 50s. Next shot at rain looks to be associated with a cold front expected in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period. There are timing discrepancies in the model solutions with the GFS leaning toward a late Tuesday night solution, while the NAM/GGEM suggesting Wednesday. Wednesday timing may be the better play here as models likely having some trouble resolving effects on subtle downstream ridging induced by the tropical system off the NC coast which could hold up the surface front by half a day, or so. Generally used a "super" blend of models for most forecast parameters. Highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 230 PM Sunday update... Fairly high confidence this period, as medium range guidance remains reasonably consistent, and in good agreement overall. No big changes. At the start of the long term the large upper level trough deepens as a short wave goes through. At the surface is a surface cold front exiting the area with a weaker one on Thursday. Low chance pops Wednesday night and slight chance on Thursday with a cold northwest flow. The transitory trough centered over the area Thursday moves east the rest of the time so that Labor Day weekend will be dry and warm with high pressure surface and aloft. Both the cold front then the high will keep tropical moisture south of our area. Temperatures start out below normal then rise Saturday to normal and above normal Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 130 pm update... Convection will develop this afternoon in NY then push southeast to AVP this evening. Thunderstorms could have brief MVFR vsbys and cigs with heavy rain. Chance of strong wind gusts low so not included attm. Cold front goes through tonight shifting the wind. Behind the front stratus clouds should move in for NY sites. MVFR for all NY sites. IFR at BGM and probably ITH. Start around 6z then lift 14 to 15z. Vsbys dropping will be more uncertain. Some clearing between convection and front but probably not enough for radiational fog. CAA and wet ground could cause some MVFR vsbys. Surface winds will become S-SW at 6-10 kt, with some gusts this afternoon, especially KSYR, KITH, and KBGM. Tonight winds light southwest to west. Winds will switch to NW late tonight. Monday midday northwest 10 kts. OUTLOOK... Monday afternoon-Tuesday night...Other than early morning fog at KELM, mostly VFR is expected. Wednesday-Thursday...Brief restrictions from showers/storms are possible, but mainly VFR. Friday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...TAC

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