Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 240704 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 304 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADLILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS. WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...
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THEN SOME IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR -SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 PM EDT UPDATE... FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA... HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY 10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS /MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS. SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...MDP

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