Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 230700 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...FULL SUNSHINE WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE FOR HIGHS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AND THEN 80S MONDAY ONWARD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 AM EDT UPDATE... FROST-FREEZE CONCERN REMAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE TO THE DEGREE THAT WAS FEARED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY BACK OVER LAKE ERIE...EN ROUTE TO WESTERN PA BY 12Z...SO THERE IS STILL QUITE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION. WINDS ARE NOT FULLY DECOUPLING EXCEPT THE MOST SHELTERED DEEPER CUT VALLEYS /CORTLAND- NORWICH- ONEONTA CALM RIGHT NOW/. MOST COOLING HAS BEEN SIMPLY AIR MASS RELATED THUS FAR...AND NOT SO MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT THAT WILL COME MORE INTO PLAY THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. OVERALL IT APPEARS LOWS WILL END 1-3 DEGREES MILDER THAN PRIOR THINKING...AND REGARDING FROST-FREEZE THAT IS AN IMPORTANT FEW DEGREES. THE OTHER FACTOR...IS THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S. THIS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF FROST FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT ACTUALLY REACH FREEZING /PERHAPS MORE OF A ROOFTOP-WINDSHIELD FROST/. HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR NOW...BUT MY FEELING IS THAT ACTUAL BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL OCCURRING FOR SOME OF OF OUR USUAL COLDEST LOCATIONS /STEUBEN COUNTY AND INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS/...WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. ALSO...FOR FROST ADVISORY COUNTIES...THE FROST WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PATCHY BECAUSE OF THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS. FULL SUNSHINE TODAY. FOR HIGHS I WENT A TOUCH ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE...SINCE THIS SET UP /DRY AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE/ OFTEN LEADS TO THE MODELS NOT BEING QUITE DRY ENOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS NOR HIGH ENOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES...THAT IS NOT WIDE ENOUGH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SO AFTER THE CHILLY START...EXPECTING UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINS TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH ALREADY SHOOTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST...AND RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST POCKETS SUCH AS THE CHEMUNG RIVER VALLEY COULD SNEAK INTO UPPER 30S...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTING LOWS IN 40-45 RANGE. THOUGH CENTRAL NY COULD GET SKIMMED BY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS MORE FULLY REALIZED SUNDAY...IN THE FORM OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...A GOOD 10-14 DEGREES UP FROM SATURDAY. THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...OVERALL STILL PLENTY OF SUN WITH A WARMING WIND FROM THE WSW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON PRECIP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY STRONG OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD SO EVEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO NOW BE MAINLY N/W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFOR, HAVE SCALED BACK POPS. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SW FLOW AND WAA SET UP OVER THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. MEMORIAL DAY NOW SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER NE PA THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER NORTH WHERE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 14C +, FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HOWEVER DEW POINTS STILL WON`T BE TOO HIGH JUST YET...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT, DEW POINTS CREEP UP TO NEAR 60 AS WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL CAP LOWS OFF FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AS DAYTIME STORMS FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FNT FNLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MON NGT LVG WRM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE REGION. SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE WHILE DAYTIME HTG HELPS DVLP LIFT SO DESPITE BEING UNDER HIPRES THE RISK OF SHWRS AND TRWS WILL CONT INTO THE XTNDD PD. REALLY LTL CHG THRU THE PD AS THE FNT OVER THE MIDWEST TRUDGES VERY SLOWLY EAST. UPR RDG IN THE WRN ATLANTIC STUBBORNLY RESISTS THE FNT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHUNTS IT OFF TO THE NW. SO... CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS CONTS INTO THU... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WEST AND NRN ZONES. WHILE CONTG ABV NRML...TEMPS WILL TEND TO FALL LTR IN THE PD AS A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMT HTG. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG EVEN IN KELM. VARIABLE OR LIGHT NW WIND DURING PREDAWN HOURS...WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY AT ABOUT 7-11 KTS DURING THE DAY...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. MON NIGHT-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047-048- 072. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-017-018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-016. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...MDP

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