Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 040146 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 946 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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945 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISC... RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND NOCTURAL COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK, THE FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY LATER TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE TIMES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD WESTERN NY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THICKENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOST PREVELANT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AVP, BGM, AND ITH. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY ADD SOME MIXING TO THE ATMOSPHERE, SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK... WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS. FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...DJP

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