Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 022037 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY THE 4TH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE. FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 4 PM THU UPDATE... FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS. NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR. HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S. LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY AND SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 4 PM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY. USED SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC SYNOPTIC PTRN. .OUTLOOK... FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR. SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...DGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.