Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 161528 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1028 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Developing low pressure system will produce widespread accumulating snow across New York and Pennsylvania today and tonight. Quiet weather is expected into the weekend with gradually warming temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1030 AM uppate...Current forecast in good shape with only minor short term adjustments made. Local radars show light snow from the local southern tier extending both south and east across northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills. The snowfall will expand farther west and north this afternoon as moisture advection continues under deep southwest flow and a developing inverted trough leads to better low level convergence. The heaviest snowfall rate will occur later this afternoon into the evening hours from the southern tier to the western Catskills and Poconos. 350 am update... Main concern in the near term is focused around the incoming winter storm expected to produce widespread accumulating snow across central NY and ne PA today into Wednesday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory for snow has been expanded another tier of counties west...to include Ithaca, Utica, and Elmira. The primary changes made to the forecast include a broader area of 3 to 5 inches of snow...aligned with the expansion of the Advisory, and also a slight increase in snow amounts to the east...especially in the higher terrain locations. A positively tilted, deep/cold upper trough pushing through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley this morning is the primary forcing mechanism for widespread snow in NY and PA. The combination of strong upper forcing from a 140kt jet ahead of the trough...a modest push of moisture from the south in front of the system and an enhanced layer of mid level f-gen is/will create favorable conditions for continuous snow across the region today and into tonight. The system is fairly slow-moving, so this will allow for a longer period of accumulation. The time when the heaviest snow is expected to fall is this afternoon and evening when the low levels become most unstable and also the thermal packing in the mid levels enhances the ne-sw oriented 700mb f-gen band, which will increase snow production and push snowfall rates into the 0.5 to 1" per hour rate range. Total snowfall should range from 6 to 8 inches in the srn Catskills and a good portion of ne PA...including the Poconos. Higher amounts close to 9 inches are not out of the question in the higher terrain locations. Snow will range from 3 to 6 inches further to the west...including Binghamton, Utica, Ithaca, Cooperstown, Elmira. A weak surface low forms off the Jersey coast later tonight ahead of the upper trough and lifts quickly to the ne by Wed morning. This enhancement will likely trigger a bit more snow in the srn Catskills and the Poconos after midnight tonight than previously expected. So, as mentioned above, have increased snow amts in this area. Also...may need to extend the Advisory beyond 5 am Wed morning. Otherwise, the snow should taper off during the morning hours Wednesday as the best forcing shifts east/ne and weak ridging aloft builds in behind the system. There may be a period of light lake effect snow in Oneida county into Wed afternoon, but inversion heights around 5000 ft and a decent amt of dry air advecting in with winds out of the west should limit snowfall to less than 1 inch. Temperatures will be fairly mild today with highs topping out in the upper 20s. Lows tonight will fall back into the lower teens in the west and upper teens/lower 20s east. Highs Wednesday will rise into the upper teens and lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 2 am update... Brief shot of cold air this period with a broad upper level trough over the northeast US. The low level flow is 280 so most of the snow showers will be across the far north with the best accumulations in the Tug Hill Plateau of northern Oneida County. Snow amounts will not be significant. Moisture remains shallow with 850mb temperatures not enough to create much lift. A short wave goes through Thursday evening providing some enhancement. Temperatures not too far from average. Only a little low. Highs mid 20s in the higher terrain of the east to around 30 Chemung Valley to NEPA. Thursday night lows in the teens. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 2 am update... Friday lake effect snow continues across the far north. Expected to end late in the day. Seasonable temperatures with high in the low 30s. Friday night dry with lows in the 20s. Warming trend as flow shifts to the southwest. Models similar in handling the next big system. A warm front lifts through Sunday night followed by a cold front late Monday. The strong surface low lifts northeast through the western Great Lakes. This weekend with and ahead of the warm front will be light rain showers and some snow showers mostly for central NY. High temperatures in the 40s Monday so precipitation will be all rain, but could end as snow Monday night. For now progressive with an inch or less of rain. Most of the snow will melt and run off. This rain and snow melt will rise rivers again. Could still be a problem with ice jams in the rivers and rivers higher now from last weekends event. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR to VFR ceilings this morning with occasional IFR vsbys in light snow. Conditions will deteriorate by late morning and especially the afternoon as the heavier snow develops. The lowest restrictions...below IFR...are still expected at KBGM, KITH, KAVP, and KRME. The snow will be somewhat lighter at KELM and KSYR, mostly MVFR to IFR. The snow may be heavy at times between 16Z and 02Z. The snow will taper off west to east after 06Z tonight with conditions slowly improving but light snow continuing at KBGM and KAVP at least until 12Z. S-SE winds 5-10 kt this morning and afternoon, will switch to the NW after 03Z at KSYR, KITH, KELM...and after 07Z at KRME, KBGM and KAVP. Outlook... Wednesday...Flight restrictions in lake effect snow possible at KRME, with VFR conditions elsewhere. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...Generally VFR conditions expected. Some localized restrictions in snow showers possible. Saturday...Primarily VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009- 024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJT/MLJ

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