Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 221737 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO T85 COLD ENOUGH FOR A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE AND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. 105 AM UPDATE... SFC LOPRES IS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS OF 05Z. INITIAL SFC FNT WHICH SPARKED OFF ISOLD TSTMS THIS EVNG IS LOCATED FM THIS LOW CNTR DOWN ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SECONDARY AND SHARPER CDFNT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THE GREAT LKS. AS THIS SFC BNDRY PASSED THIS EVENING WINDS BRIEFLY VEERED ARND TO THE NW AND HV CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AHD OF MAIN FRONT. THIS FNT IS BRINGING IN CAA AND MUCH DRIER DWPTS AND EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. TEMPS WL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST PD. HV POPULATED GRIDS WITH LAV NUMBERS AS THEY SHOW NEARLY STEADY THRU 16Z THEN RISING BY A DEGREE OR TWO BY AFTN, MORE WHERE THE SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THRU. EXPECT U40S/L50S ACRS NY ZONES WITH MAXES PEAKING ARND 60F ACRS NEPA. NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SEEING SUN TODAY NORTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS CNTRL NY AND WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LK WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER/SPRINKLE ALONG AND BHND CDFNT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN AFT 18Z WITH PCPN CHCS (AT LEAST WHAT THEY ARE) DIMINISHING THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... 245 AM UPDATE... SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE MIDWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ALOFT WITH FLOW OFF THE LK CONFINED TO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLRNG ELSEWHERE. DO NOT FORESEE ANY RVR VLY FOG TUE MRNG AS FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC RMNS 10-15KTS AND DRY DWPTS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON NW FLOW. OVRNGT MINS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT ARND 40F WITH DEEPER VLYS ACRS THE CATS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S. WL NOT ADD IN PATCHY FROST AT THIS POINT AS FORMATION WL LKLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CAN CLR BUT WL PASS ONTO LATER SHIFTS TO BE WARY FOR HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. SKIES EXPECTED TO BCM PCLDY ON TUE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG IN CYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TROF AXIS BRUSHES NRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN BRINGING A SLGT CHC FOR SPRINKLES TO THE TUG HILL. TEMPS WL BE WARMER DRG THE DAY TUE AS H8 TEMPS WRM TO NR +7C AS HIPRES BUILDS IN. MIXING LOOKS TO OCCUR UP TO ARND 900MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S BY AFTN. HIPRES WL RULE THE AREA WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. H5 HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT AROUND ARND 590DM INTO THURSDAY THO MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVLS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PD, WHICH CUD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE UPCOMING NICE DAYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY VFR BKN TO OVC CLOUDS COVER ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA IN A MOIST LL NW FLOW. THERE WERE OCCASIONALLY SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY KBGM...KITH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR WAS COLD ENOUGH AS IT CROSSED LAKE ONTARIO THAT WE WERE SEEING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHUD LAST THRU THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DVLPG AT KRME AND KSYR. AS THIS MOISTENED AIR FLOWS UP INTO THE HILLS WE WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CIG ESP KBGM...KITH LATE TONIGHT. KELM AND KAVP SHUD CLR OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST PD. AFTER 12Z...WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ALL TAFS SHUD BECOME VFR UNDER A SCT-BKN DECK BY LATE MORNING TUE. WINDS WILL BE W TO NW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT W TO SW AFTER 00Z AND THEN WRLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TUE. OUTLOOK... WED NGT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...DJN

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