Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 310718 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 300 AM EDT UPDATE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD. ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD. FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR 20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. 1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE. OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSYR/KELM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS. SUN-TUE...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.