-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 011345
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE...
HV DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THINGS HV
STABILIZED. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN DVLPNG BY NOON OR SO ACRS
SERN ZONES IN AREA OF RRQ OF JET STREAK. IN ADDITION TO THIS AREA,
ANY SUBTLE S/WVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF THIS AFTN MAY
HELP DVLP CONVECTION ON THE LK BREEZE BNDRY, THUS WL CONTINUE WITH
CHC POPS IN THE LK PLAIN AS WELL AS ACRS THE SE ZONES.

PREV DISCO BLO...

400 AM UPDATE...

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS IF YOU LOOK AT THE QPF
FIELDS, LOOKING UPSTAIRS SHOWS A DIFFERENT STORY. THESE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND 250 MB MOVING
OVER OUR AREA, PUTTING NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE MERELY SHOWING THE HAND
OF WHAT WE CAN`T EXPECT FOR MOST OF TODAY IN TERMS OF ONE OF THE
HIGHER THREATS FOR SHOWERS COMING ROUGHLY NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE OTHER ITEM WE ARE WATCHING IS SOME
MOISTURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN, MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CUT OFF LOW UP IN CANADA. ITS QUITE APPARENT WE HAVE SOMETHING
TO WORK WITH HERE WITH SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE,
ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR. AS THIS
AREA MOVES EAST, SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NY
LATER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS BOTH HERE AND
NEPA/CATSKILLS FOR THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE BEGINNING TO WARM ALOFT AND WE DO NOT HAVE
SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS AS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN BY
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD WITH THE TROF REMAINING IN THE NORTHEAST. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY STAY
JUST TO OUR EAST SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE TROF AROUND AND SOME
GENERAL INSTABILITY HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIP. ANYWHERE DURING THE
DAY. A BETTER SHOT AT A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE WILL COME SUNDAY AS
AN H5 TROF MOVES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS FAR OUT ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1,000 IN SPOTS. I LIKE THE HIGHER POPS
ON SUNDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE TROF MOVING THROUGH. WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR HIGHS NEAR 80 BOTH DAYS OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG AT ELM ONCE AGAIN THIS MRNG...OTRW VFR CONDS ACROSS THE
SITES. ELM SHD MIX OUT SHRTLY BRING VFR THERE AS WELL. SYSTEM MVG
UP THE CST WILL PUSH CLDS AND PCPN TO AVP AFT 00Z....WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL THRU THE PD AT THE
OTR STATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP