Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBGM 281916
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around the region
from late afternoon into the late evening. Some storms may
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. High pressure will start
to build back into the region on Monday resulting in dry weather
and seasonably warm temperatures through mid-week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Destabilization of the atmosphere was occurring this afternoon
across west-central NY and NW PA within an area of weak low level
convergence well out ahead of cold front positioned over lower
Ontario. We continue to expect scattered thunderstorms to form
by late this afternoon...primarily from the Southern Tier
northeastward toward the Mohawk Valley...with activity continuing
a few hours past sundown. SPC maintains MRGL severe risk, but
latest analysis and short fuse modeling indicates discontinuity
between instability and best region of bulk shear. Torrential
rainfall rates within thunderstorms seem to be the higher threat
today given PWAT values approaching 2 inches.
Cold front translates through the region overnight. Thinking is
that stabilization ahead of the front will make for little fanfare
and have trimmed PoPs by late evening. Models suggest high RH in
the lowest levels of the boundary layer with dry air above which
may be indicative of low level cloudiness forming in the cooling
airmass overnight and early Monday. High pressure and refreshing
NW winds take over on Monday with increasing amounts of sunshine
and seasonable temperatures from the upper 70s north to mid 80s
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and refreshing NW winds take over on Monday with
increasing sunshine and seasonable temperatures from the upper 70s
north to mid 80s south. The surface high crests overhead Monday
night into Tuesday with generally clear skies and light winds.
Tuesday night should radiate rather well and have trimmed overnight
mins just a bit with values ranging from the low-mid 50s. Next
shot at rain looks to be associated with a cold front expected in
the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period. There are timing
discrepancies in the model solutions with the GFS leaning toward
a late Tuesday night solution, while the NAM/GGEM suggesting
Wednesday. Wednesday timing may be the better play here as models
likely having some trouble resolving effects on subtle downstream
ridging induced by the tropical system off the NC coast which
could hold up the surface front by half a day, or so.
Generally used a "super" blend of models for most forecast parameters.
Highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows upper 50s to
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Sunday update...
Fairly high confidence this period, as medium range guidance
remains reasonably consistent, and in good agreement overall. No
At the start of the long term the large upper level trough deepens
as a short wave goes through. At the surface is a surface cold
front exiting the area with a weaker one on Thursday. Low chance
pops Wednesday night and slight chance on Thursday with a cold
northwest flow. The transitory trough centered over the area
Thursday moves east the rest of the time so that Labor Day weekend
will be dry and warm with high pressure surface and aloft. Both
the cold front then the high will keep tropical moisture south of
Temperatures start out below normal then rise Saturday to normal
and above normal Sunday.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 pm update...
Convection will develop this afternoon in NY then push southeast
to AVP this evening. Thunderstorms could have brief MVFR vsbys and
cigs with heavy rain. Chance of strong wind gusts low so not
Cold front goes through tonight shifting the wind. Behind the
front stratus clouds should move in for NY sites. MVFR for all NY
sites. IFR at BGM and probably ITH. Start around 6z then lift 14
to 15z. Vsbys dropping will be more uncertain. Some clearing
between convection and front but probably not enough for
radiational fog. CAA and wet ground could cause some MVFR vsbys.
Surface winds will become S-SW at 6-10 kt, with some gusts this
afternoon, especially KSYR, KITH, and KBGM. Tonight winds light
southwest to west. Winds will switch to NW late tonight. Monday
midday northwest 10 kts.
Monday afternoon-Tuesday night...Other than early morning fog at
KELM, mostly VFR is expected.
Wednesday-Thursday...Brief restrictions from showers/storms are
possible, but mainly VFR.