Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 300751 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 351 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and isolated thunder will be possible at times this morning and early afternoon, yet most of the time will be dry. The next best chance for widespread showers and some thunderstorms will be Monday evening as a cold front moves across the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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345 AM EDT Update... Skies have cleared out this morning, however this will be shortly lived as the next system will start to impact the region is close by. The next system the to impact the region can be clearly noted on IR satellite this morning. The feature moving through northern OH/western NY is associated with the warm front aloft that will move across the region. This feature will create an environment conducive for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region starting roughly 10Z and last through 21Z this afternoon. The bulk of the activity, if showers develop will be this morning and early afternoon. There could be weak embedded waves within the outer edge of the ridge aloft but since there are no significant forcing aloft as the front aloft moves over the region, confidence overall is fairly low again today that we will see much activity. This warm front will bring strong WAA aloft to the region and mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. The sfc warm front may struggle to push north, thus temps north of the warm front may remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. And temps north of the warm front may reach the mid to uppr 60s. The temp forecast today will be a challenge.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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345 AM EDT Update... Monday starts to look more interesting. The flow aloft transitions into cyclonic flow and deep return flow sets up over the region. The Low lvl jet continues to look impressive at 30 knots, increasing to 40 to 50 knots by 00Z. Low and mid lvl lapse rates don`t look to impressive, however wind profiles at the low-lvls do. Guidance is hinting at roughly 500 SB CAPE. Low CAPE/High shear environments can produce damaging winds. SPC has upgraded Steuben, Yates, Seneca, Cayuga, Tompkins and Chemung Counties in a Slight risk. SPC believes damaging winds are the main threat. I-81 and west are in a Marginal risk. Will continue to keep a close eye on this system as it evolves. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into central NY after 21Z. Showers could linger after 06Z across the region. Temps Monday will range in the 70s. The closed upper low that will force a cold front across the region Monday night will start to move across the region on Tuesday. As we will remain under cyclonic flow aloft, the chance for showers will prevail. This pattern will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region and temps in the uppr 50s to low 60s, except in the Wyoming valley (where they could rise into the uppr 60s).
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 PM update... Continued unsettled pattern with temperatures falling to closer to average or a little below. An upper level trough will be over the area to start then lift slightly before a reinforcing shot of cold air aloft Friday. Fortunately fairly moist so little clearing so a freeze looks unlikely attm. Tuesday/Wednesday showers with cold northwest flow on back side of large storm. Wednesday night a brief break then moisture streams northeast ahead of another strong surface low. This will bring rain for Thursday and Friday before more showers on Saturday. Highs mid 50s to low 60s whole period but low temperatures fall into the 40s entire period. If any clearing could fall into the 30s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak upper wave will pass through the area today and generate a few showers, mainly over SYR and RME. Brief MVFR ceilings or visibility is possible with the rain. The balance of the day light hours will be VFR otherwise, with northerly winds. A return to MVFR ceilings is likely after 00Z as the sounding stabilizes and moisture collects below the inversion. Outlook... Monday morning...Mainly VFR. Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning...Restrictions likely from showers and thunderstorms as frontal system moves through. Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR but a chance of showers and associated restrictions at times.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH/TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJT/DGM/MDP

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