-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 051527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1027 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AIR IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT WILL
STALL ON THE COAST FRIDAY. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLDER AIR WILL SET OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED AT 1030 AM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO MOVING EAST.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WTIH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE POCONOS AS
THE WARM AIR RIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND. MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN OHIO IS SPREADING ENE
ACROSS SW PA LATE THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY REACH NORTHEAST PA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS LATER TODAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE IN A BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NY BY EVENING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE POCONOS AND SULLIVAN CO NY TO NEAR 60
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.


7 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO BUMP HOURLY TEMPS UP SOME MORE. MANY LOCATIONS IN UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW TOO BUT ONLY BUMPED UP
1 DEGREE. RAIN STILL MANY HOURS AWAY WITH NOTHING ON RADARS IN NY
AND PA NOW. LOWERED POPS AND QPF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

4 AM UPDATE...

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MILD AIR IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN THROUGH THE 40S TO A FEW LOW 50S
ALREADY. WITH FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE AND CLOSE TO 60 AT AVP. RAIN WITH
THE WARM FRONT HAS STAYED IN ONTARIO. WITH LOW CEILINGS HAVE
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE
MORNING CLOUDS WILL LIFT BUT REMAIN CLOUDY. SHOWERS IN THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE NE IN THE DEEP FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, INTO
THE CWA THIS AFTN. LIFT AND INCREASED FORCING WILL CAUSE THE
SHOWERS TO EXPAND IN AREA. THE NE TO SW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATE TODAY BUT ANY COLD AIR IS WELL BEHIND IT. MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW WITH THE DEEP SW FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL
WAVES WILL MOVE NE ALONG IT BRINGING BATCHES OF HEAVIER PRECIP.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL CAUSE
MINOR RIVER RISES. COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING LATE TONIGHT IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVELS WILL COOL FASTER SO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW. THE GOOD THING IS THERE WILL BE A LULL
BETWEEN WAVES FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE BAD
THING IS THE NEXT BATCH OF MIXED PRECIP WILL COME IN FRIDAY AFTN.
IN THE TWIN TIERS PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WHILE THE POCONOS
WILL NOT CHANGE OVER UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS OF
HALF AN INCH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NY THROUGH NE PA SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER
NORTH MOSTLY FROZEN BUT AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH. ICE AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AS USUAL MOST OF THE ICE
WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN AND GIVEN IT IS MOSTLY A THIRD PERIOD EVENT WILL NOT
ISSUE A WINT WX ADV ATTM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. LATE FRI NIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTS TO GET GOING WITH A NW LL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO -14C WHICH IS MARGINAL. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION FALLS TO
6K FT AROUND 12Z SAT. DENDRITE ZONE SHALLOW AND AT THE TOP OF THE
MOSITURE. A FLOW OF 290 WILL PUT A SINGLE BAND ALONG THE NYS
THRUWAY FROM SYR TO ONEIDA. MINOR EVENT THAT MIGHT NEED AN
ADVISORY. BEST LES WILL BE SAT AFTN AND EVE. LATE SAT NGT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT DOWN THE SNOW QUICKLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NYS/NEW
ENGLAND. LATE IN THE DAY LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, PRIMARILY LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
LOWER LAKES STAYING WEST OF CENTRAL NY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW,
ALTHOUGH WEAKER, DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SINCE THE
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST MUCH WARMER AIR WILL BE
BROUGHT INTO THE MID LEVELS BRINGING THE AREA A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING AS SFC
TEMPS WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA LATER MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA
FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WILL BE COLD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED W/NW FLOW. THIS
WILL SET UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 20S WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST S/SE FLOW WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH KBGM AT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BY MID
MORNING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL IMPROVE CIGS TO LOW VFR AT
KSYR. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z AND LOWER THE CATEGORY INTO THE LOW MVFR
RANGE. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA, BETWEEN 03Z-
06Z, WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR KELM/KAVP. LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THEN SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY/FRI NGT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

SAT/SAT NGT...SCT MVFR CNTRL NY....PRIMARILY SYR/RME.

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM