Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 050200 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SUMMERTIME WARMTH. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... THE FORECAST REMAINS "STEADY AS SHE GOES THIS EVENING." EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, AND WE SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE THE REST OF THE NIGHT, AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS THIS EVENING, AS JUDGED FROM RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER CNTRL/SRN NJ AND ERN PA. WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. LOWS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 345 PM UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY`S SOUTHERN TIER. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (MIXED-LAYER CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG) AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ARE THE CULPRITS. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET, ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT, A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE, IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND OUR SOUTHERN NY COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH, SKIES SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR, WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. LOWS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... 4 PM UPDATE... FINE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN FIRM CONTROL. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. IN FACT, THE AIR MASS MAY WARM EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER ON MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS PERHAPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER URBAN/VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FLATTEN AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA. THE INITIAL SFC TROF MOVING INTO THE RIDGE TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WED THROUGH THURSDAY. TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NRN TIER OF PA AS WEAKENING BOUNDARY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY ATTM WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WED THEN DROP BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR SRN TIER AND MAYBE AVP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYR/RME COULD FALL TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS DYING BETWEEN ELM AND AVP AND WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. A MOIST E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS. BROUGHT CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN 06Z- 08Z. RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. AT KRME/KSYR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT BUT A 4K FT VFR CIG. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AND BOTH SITES MAY FALL TO MVFR. SATURDAY MIDDAY AND AFTN VFR WITH SCT FAIR WEATHER CU. ELM MIGHT BE BROKEN BEING CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE IN FAR WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. LIGHT E WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SHIFTING TO SE AND S SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM. TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM/TAC

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