Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 250733 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 333 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE TODAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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230 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN NY AND ERN PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SFC LOW AND UL SHORT WAVE AND TROF NOW IN IL. CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 4 PM. SHOWERS NOW ON THE FRONT EDGE OF A MID DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WINDS INCREASE TODAY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY OR RED FLAG WARNING. TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 30S WILL QUICKLY RISE WITH GOOD MIXING INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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230 AM UPDATE... A STRONG SFC LOW IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND THROUGH PA AND NY TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOW AIDED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF COAST. A STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. GOOD UL JET DYNAMICS WILL CREATE DEEP LIFT TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. RAIN ONSET HAS BEEN DELAYED AGAIN TO AROUND 6 PM NOW. LATE TONIGHT THE STEADY SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO ERN NY. THE DRY BREAK WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UL SHORT WAVE AND TROF DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S. WITH THE LOW BECOMING STACKED AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRECIP WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LATE SAT NGT PRECIP COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST SO OUR REGION DRIES OUT. THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS AND KEEP THE SHOWERS HERE LONGER.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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230 AM UPDATE... A VERY BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY H5 LOWS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID WEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS OMEGA TYPE BLOCK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO OUR REGION. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE VCNTY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID WEST GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PM THU... AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LATE APRIL PATTERN IS FEATURED AT LONGER RANGES WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A REX BLOCK WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL NOAM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIME CLOSED LOW. UNTIL THE CLOSED LOWS AND BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...THE DAY 4-7 FCST WAS DERIVED FROM A 50 PERCENT BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A SLOWER EVOLVING PCPN PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX SUN-MON. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY CLIMO VALUES.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR RAIN TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S/SE LATER THIS MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHRA. SUN-MON...VFR. TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE DAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON THE AFTN MIN RH WILL DROP TO 30 PERCENT BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EARLY AFTN IN THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY. LESS WIND ELSEWHERE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING. SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SHOWERS SAT TO SUN SO NO THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...CTP/RRM AVIATION...RRM FIRE WEATHER...TAC

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