Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 271520 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1120 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL DOT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES, EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST CANADA AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A NEARLY STALLED STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SFC CYCLONE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A DEEP NRLY FLOW ACROSS NY AND PA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL WAVES...ONE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES...ONE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS VA AND ANOTHER ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NRN NY. THESE FEATURES LINE UP WELL WITH THE TROP PRESSURE AS DEFINED BY THE 1.5 PVU. ALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS TROP PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW THAT THIS NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND FEATURE WILL PASS SOUTH ACRS NY AND PA BTWN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH IT CURRENTLY. BUT AS IT PASSES SOUTH THERE WILL BE SOME BNDRY LAYER HEATING THRU THE CLOUD COVER WHICH CUD SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...GFS AND SREF ALL SHOW THAT WE REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND LOOKING AT THE VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS LOOKS ON TRACK. SO WILL HAVE CLDY SKIES WITH CHC OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN FOR TONIGHT...NWRLY LL FLOW ACTUALLY VEERS TO NERLY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET NR 850 MB WORKS SOUTHWARD TWD NY AND PA AND PROVIDES MOISTURE ADVTN AND LL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONT THE CHC FOR SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. THE SREF AND NAM12 AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE REGIONAL CMC ALL SHOW THIS. SO WILL CONT POPS INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER FEATURE. THE LIFTG THAT TRIGGERS THESE SHRA WAS LOWER THAN THE SYNOPIC SUBSDC AT MID LEVELS BEHIND THIS DEPARTING UPPER WAVE IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHWRS AND SPRINKLES WILL END. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...SREF...NAM AND GFS MODELM SOUNDINGS KEEP C NY AND NE PA SOCKED IN CLDS ALL OF TONIGHT AND EVEN TUESDAY. SOME BREAKS CUD APPEAR TUE PM BUT BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...A MOIST NRLY FLOW AND UPSLOPING ACRS C NY AND NRN PA TENDS TO KEEP CLOUDS LONGER THAN WE EXPECT. SO I HAVE MO CLDY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN FOR TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 430 AM UPDATE... ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS SHOULD LINGER THIS EVE...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TNT...AS THE ABV MENTIONED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO KICK EWD AGN AWAY FROM THE RGN...OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TUE-WED...DRY WX IS EXPECTED...AS SFC RIDGING BLDS SEWD FROM ONT...AND S/WV RIDGING DVLPS IN THE MID-LVLS. ALTHOUGH CLDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY TUE...WITH MOISTURE PERHAPS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH BLDG HGTS ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY/DURG TUE AFTN...WITH PTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN ANTICIPATED WED. BETTER INSOLATION AND AMS MODIFICATION SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S-MID 60S RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE CLSD LOW AND DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TWRD THE EURO. LONG WV PTRN IS SIMILAR WITH FLAT RDGG INTO THE UPR MID WEST. DFRNCS CONT TO STEM FROM THE HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM WV DROPPING INTO THE EAST CST TROF...AND IT/S INTERACTIONS WITH A STRONG SRN STREAM SYSTEM. EURO CONTS TO KEEP A SEPARATE AND DOMINANT SRN STREAM STORM MVG OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST...KEEPING A WEAK TROF TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE NRN WV AND CAPTURE THE SRN WV RESULTING IN A DEEP SYSTEM OFF THE CST AND A CLSD UPR LOW OVER WRN NY. GFS SOLN WLD LIKELY PRODUCE A COLDER AND WETTER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SOME SNOW...FOR THE FCST AREA. EURO WLD CONT TO KEEP THE AREA BLO NRML...BUT MUCH LGTR AND ALL LIQUID ON THE PCPN. WITH THE GFS/S TENDENCY TO CREATE BOGUS DEEP STORMS IN THE LONG TERM...WILL CONT TO FOLLOW THE EURO SOLN AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS WITH BLO NRML TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR A CONTD GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN THE WX INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME LGT PCPN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT DROP SOUTHWARD AS WE REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ALL SITES FOR THE MOST PART AT VFR. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING THAT SOME SITES MAY SEE HIGH END MVFR UNTIL MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE. ONCE THIS OCCURS ALL MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. TONIGHT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANCE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR KITH AND KBGM TO SEE LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WILL BECOME GUSTY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK... TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR. FRI...POSSIBLY MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND BR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...KAH

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