Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281103 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 703 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers and storms will develop later today and this evening across the region. A better chance for widespread precipitation...especially south...is expected late tonight and through the day Friday. Dry conditions expected Saturday, with another round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 3 am update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the potential for patchy valley fog this morning...and the next round of showers and storms expected later this afternoon and into tonight. Quiet weather conditions this morning with weak high pressure in place along with a dry air mass aloft. These conditions are helping to keep skies mostly clear this morning. The addition of light/calm surface winds and a relatively moist near- surface layer will continue to allow favorable conditions for patchy fog...especially in the valley locations this morning. Already starting to see fog form in the upper Susquehanna valley this morning. The spatial extent of the fog development later this morning is still uncertain. The weak high pressure in place will quickly shift to the east as the next couple features move in...one from the north/nw and the other from the sw. The system to the north in the form of an upper trough will rotate w-e across the eastern Great Lakes into nrn New England later today. This trough will interact with a relatively unstable air mass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the afternoon into the evening. Overall dynamics will be weak-moderate with minimal deep layer shear and no real surface feature to provide the forcing mechanism. ML CAPE values will increase to around 500-1000 J/kg. The secondary system will move in from the sw in the form of an embedded upper s/w and a developing surface low from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. A robust amt of deep moisture will get entrained into this dynamic system as it evolves and eventually becomes a fairly efficient rain producer. The track of the low from srn PA into srn NJ and eventually off the New England coast appears to be in fairly good agreement among the model guidance. An intensifying deformation zone will develop on the nrn side of the system as the baroclinicity strengthens. This will be the mostly likely location of the heaviest rainfall...across ne PA and into far sern NY and further to the east. An area of stratiform rain will move in from the south/sw late tonight and continue into Friday. There will likely be weak embedded thunderstorms as well. May see up to a quarter of an inch tonight with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms...and eventually more tomorrow. Temperatures today will be warm once again with high humidity values as well as dew points remain in the 60s. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A trof of low pressure along the eastern U.S. will increase the chance for precipitation over our region on Friday, especially over the southern forecast area. The NAM is not surprisingly the most aggressive in pulling significant precipitation well into NY State, while the other models are less intense. Still, it appears a "likely" shower and thunderstorm forecast is prudent for the southeastern FA, where the best slug of moisture riding up the coast skirts our region. High pressure builds in for Saturday before another short wave swings out of the Ohio Valley overnight. The wave will set off additional shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will average above normal for this period.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended forecast. A weak upper level wave combined with surface low pressure in the mid atlantic region will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday looks mainly dry as upper level heights build and surface high pressure remains in the vicinity. Temperatures will start at seasonal levels over the weekend then warm back above normal early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Early today will continue to see VFR conditions, however high level clouds will begin to move in from the NW and SW through the late morning and afternoon. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms after 20Z with brief mvfr conditions possible at any site that gets a brief shower. Confidence is slightly higher in the overall potential for precipitation...so changed to TEMPO grps to all terminals this late afternoon and evening. The second system slides by to the se late tonight and Friday morning with additional chances for -SHRA/TSRA at AVP. Kept all mention of precip out of other terminals after 06Z tonight. Winds remain light/variable or calm this morning...increasing from the southwest around 5 kts in the afternoon and becoming northwest later in the day before light and variable again tonight. OUTLOOK... Fri-Friday night...Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any convection. Saturday...VFR. Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any convection. Monday...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...BJT

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