Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 241445 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. EARLY AM DISCUSSION... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 150 PM UPDATE... LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN. FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND HIGHS IN THE U70S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S. WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR. N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...DGM/MLJ

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