Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 021846 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM EST UPDATE... LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z. XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA. CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED. FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE NGT. AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHWRS. FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE SRN CATSKILLS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN. REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED. WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS DUE TO SNOW. THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.