-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 011653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 AM UPDATE... WE`VE TWEAKED THE NEAR-TERM POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE PERSISTENT -SHSN/FLRYS...ASSOCD WITH WEAK LOW-LVL
FRNT/CONVERGENCE ZN ACRS ALG THE PA/NY BORDER ATTM. ONLY A COATING
OF SNOW...AT MOST...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
HRS. MORE SIG SNOWFALL WITH THE INCOMING STORM IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OFF TO OUR W AND SW.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT STORM...THE EVOLUTION OF STEADIER LGT SNOW
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE RGN FROM SW TO NE LTR THIS AFTN STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE`VE KEPT THAT PTN OF THE FCST VERY
SIMILAR.

THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM...AS WELL AS THE 09Z SREF...BASICALLY
SUPPORT OUR GOING FCST WITH SNOWFALL AMTS....AS WELL AS PSBL PTYP
ISSUES IN OUR SRN ZNS EARLY MON. WE AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE
TAKING A MORE THOROUGH LOOK AT THINGS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

PREV DISC... AT 445 AM...A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL
NY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WITH
THE LAKE PLAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE.

ONCE THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ENTIRE FA BY MID MORNING AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PRECIP FREE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN NE PA.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID WEST WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY THEN OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM INCLUDING THE THERMAL PROFILES. IN
GENERAL MODEL QPF RANGED FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA TO AROUND AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST PA.
UPGRADED THE WATCH IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO WARNING AS QPF TREND
HAS INCREASED HERE WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND 7 INCHES LIKELY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST (1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR) AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL
BE BEST FROM 03Z-12Z THEN THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FGEN FORCING MAY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA. GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND 06Z NAM
ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SRN LUZERNE/LACKAWANNA/WAYNE/PIKE
COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE. IF THE MIX OCCURS IT WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEREFORE
ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE NRN CWA. SINCE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE H85 LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THE
TREND OF RAISING ACCUMS NORTH AND LOWER SOUTH MAY CONTINUE. IN
GENERAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 6 TO 10 NRN CWA, 8 TO 12 CENTRAL AND
8 TO 10 SOUTH WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE. BY LATE MONDAY A COLD NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES BY LATER
SHIFTS. SFC RIDGING WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN NW FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. APPROACHING SFC TROF TUE NIGHT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN AVP AND ELM
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z, BGM AND ITH BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z, AND RME AND
SYR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z.

THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM, WITH
LOWER VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS MVFR AND TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. A LONG PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
ENDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.

MON NGT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.

TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.

TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP