Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBGM 240728
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
An upper level disturbance, will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms again today, over the Catskills and Poconos. Most
areas, though, will be dry. More summer like weather will be with
us Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs in the upper
seventies and eighties. Although most of the time will be rain
free, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late
each afternoon, particularly on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
310 am update...
Regional radar loops are showing an area of light showers rotating
westward from the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ early this
morning, around the pesky cutoff low off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Our latest high-resolution model guidance remains in good
agreement that these showers will generally weaken with westward
extent, with only isolated-scattered coverage, at best,
anticipated over our Pocono and Catskill zones today. This seems
quite reasonable, as most of our available guidance indicates that
the above mentioned upper low will open up and drift northeastward
today, farther offshore.
For the majority of the area (from about the I-81 corridor
westward), today will feature partly-mostly sunny skies, and
Highs this afternoon will range in the 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 am update...
The cutoff low referenced above, will continue to fill and drift
northeastward over the Atlantic Wed.-Thu., no longer a controlling
feature for our weather. A flat upper ridge axis will then take
over, along with the onset of a warmer, more humid summer-like
air mass. Highs Wed. and Thu. will range from the upper 70s-mid
80s each afternoon, along with slowly increasing surface dew
points (up into the low-mid 60s by Thu.).
As far as convective potential goes, we anticipate isolated
showers and storms late in the day Wed., mainly over our northern
and eastern zones, associated with a short-wave passage, and the
approach of a weak surface boundary. Much of NY`s southern tier,
as well as Northeast PA, may well end up rain-free Wed.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact a larger portion of
the forecast area by later Thu., as the just mentioned weak
surface front remains in the vicinity, another short-wave impulse
goes through, and higher dew points bring ML Cape values locally
to near 1000 j/kg.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of
fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly
to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep
chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance
on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit
as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the
chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky
thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any
day in the pd.
Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the
80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the end of the TAF period. High clouds backing in from
the east and a stiff breeze off the surface will prevent fog
formation early this morning. High clouds will be thickest at KAVP
through late morning, with just a few clouds elsewhere.
Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then
increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest this afternoon.
Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible
each day with brief restrictions.