Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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259 FXUS61 KBGM 131749 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward through the region with showers and thunderstorms through Monday. High pressure looks to briefly build into the region Tuesday before another cold front sweeps through the region later this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A hot and humid airmass coupled with a slow moving cold front will provide a favorable setup for the development of showers and thunderstorms through most of the night. PW values are still high from 1.5-2 inches maintaining the threat for heavy downpours. However, shear values remain fairly low which will lead to slow storm motions and potential training and backbuilding of showers and thunderstorms. A few locations could see 2-3 inches of rain in a couple of hours resulting in some localized urban and flash flooding. A few localized downbursts are still possible as well. The flood watch has been expanded into most of CNY and the northern Tier of PA based on the coverage shown on the latest 12Z set of mesoscale model guidance. Indications are some showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight as well. A marine layer once again attempts to build into the region from the south and southeast overnight. River valley locations outside the marine layer that see rain today have the potential for some patchy fog. Another muggy night with lows around 70. With the slow frontal passage Monday temperatures do look slightly cooler. Areas east of I-81 look to become unstable again ahead of the front leading to an additional round of showers and thunderstorms. Not much change in the overall setup so heavy downpours and flooding are still a concern. 0-6 KM bulk shear looks slightly higher so thunderstorms may be slightly better organized with enough mid-level dry air for a downburst or two. Slightly less muggy Monday night with lows in the mid and upper 60`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure noses into the region Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday. This looks to squeeze any thunderstorm chances near and south of the Scranton area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Southern portions of the area also look to have the highest chance for any pop-up thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. With high amounts of modeled instability Wednesday afternoon some downburst potential exists as well in addition to heavy rainfall. Modeled 925 mb temperatures still indicate highs around 90 each afternoon. Lowered NBM dewpoints once again each afternoon based on recent biases. Still heat index values get close to 95 for some valley locations in CNY. Muggy lows around 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Ensemble guidance has trended slower with the passage of the next cold front with it looking like a Friday passage now. This would continue to keep a similar pattern to Wednesday going with muggy lows near 70, highs pushing 90. The enviroment ahead of the front should be sufficient for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Both heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorm threats may become realized as we get closer in time. Cooling and drying trend next weekend after the frontal passage. Some upper level energy may keep a few showers around though.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms are already starting to develop near KELM and KITH. So the timing may be sooner than indicated in the TEMPO groups. Timing is also tricky because there is decent potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this evening at all TAF sites. An MVFR cloud deck looks to build into KAVP overnight and possibly into KBGM,KRME and KITH. KELM looks far enough west to where valley fog is a higher concern overnight. Ceilings should burn off by mid-morning with KAVP being the latest in terms of timing. Additional showers and thunderstorms may reform near KAVP and KBGM in the afternoon hours Monday as well. Outlook... Monday afternoon and night... Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highest chances look to be at BGM and AVP. Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. A spotty thunderstorm with restrictions can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon. Thursday and Friday... Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ038>040. NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MWG