Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011345 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 945 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 940 AM UPDATE... HV DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THINGS HV STABILIZED. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN DVLPNG BY NOON OR SO ACRS SERN ZONES IN AREA OF RRQ OF JET STREAK. IN ADDITION TO THIS AREA, ANY SUBTLE S/WVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF THIS AFTN MAY HELP DVLP CONVECTION ON THE LK BREEZE BNDRY, THUS WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE LK PLAIN AS WELL AS ACRS THE SE ZONES. PREV DISCO BLO... 400 AM UPDATE... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS IF YOU LOOK AT THE QPF FIELDS, LOOKING UPSTAIRS SHOWS A DIFFERENT STORY. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND 250 MB MOVING OVER OUR AREA, PUTTING NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE MERELY SHOWING THE HAND OF WHAT WE CAN`T EXPECT FOR MOST OF TODAY IN TERMS OF ONE OF THE HIGHER THREATS FOR SHOWERS COMING ROUGHLY NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE OTHER ITEM WE ARE WATCHING IS SOME MOISTURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN, MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUT OFF LOW UP IN CANADA. ITS QUITE APPARENT WE HAVE SOMETHING TO WORK WITH HERE WITH SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE, ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR. AS THIS AREA MOVES EAST, SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS BOTH HERE AND NEPA/CATSKILLS FOR THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE BEGINNING TO WARM ALOFT AND WE DO NOT HAVE SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS AS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD WITH THE TROF REMAINING IN THE NORTHEAST. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY STAY JUST TO OUR EAST SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE TROF AROUND AND SOME GENERAL INSTABILITY HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIP. ANYWHERE DURING THE DAY. A BETTER SHOT AT A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE WILL COME SUNDAY AS AN H5 TROF MOVES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS FAR OUT ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1,000 IN SPOTS. I LIKE THE HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY FOR NOW BASED ON THE TROF MOVING THROUGH. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR HIGHS NEAR 80 BOTH DAYS OR NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DENSE FOG AT ELM ONCE AGAIN THIS MRNG...OTRW VFR CONDS ACROSS THE SITES. ELM SHD MIX OUT SHRTLY BRING VFR THERE AS WELL. SYSTEM MVG UP THE CST WILL PUSH CLDS AND PCPN TO AVP AFT 00Z....WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS SHD PREVAIL THRU THE PD AT THE OTR STATIONS. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...DGM/MDP

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