Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 010653 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 110 AM UPDATE... A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON- TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THIS LABOR DAY. BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 250 AM UPDATE... FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED. FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z, EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS. FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT. THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z. PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW. SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS ONLY IN THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM. ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MLJ/MDP

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