-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241445
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ