Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 232024 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 324 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN THEREAFTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD. STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S). ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE ...ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY. THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX. BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS BELOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO INCREASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000 FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT BGM. WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT. OUTLOOK... MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR. WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP. THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DJP

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