Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBGM 281538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode
across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while
the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny
skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s.
The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms
this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated
strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving
surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area,
across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined
short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis
data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of
interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical
shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection
later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well
timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher
surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the
aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly
high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor,
from mid-afternoon til early evening.
Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe
locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values
around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear
features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching
this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this
Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front
was moving through western New York as the associated upper level
trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes.
As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily
scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to
show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave
and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By
this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An
average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep
shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential
for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area
primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor
continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in
tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around
70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although
very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50
inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent
conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances
for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos
and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may
linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 am update...
For this period mostly dry with an upper level trough over the
northeast US and high pressure at the surface. Storm track Midwest
to the middle Atlantic. Temperatures near or slightly below
normal. Friday night the slow moving trough is over the area so a
chance of showers all night and maybe an evening thunderstorm. The
trough moves slowly east over the weekend. Maybe some showers
Tuesday night on with more of a zonal flow aloft and warm front at
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11 am update...
VFR has returned. Still expecting thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. One now in Oneida east of KRME. Timing of thunderstorms
decent and covered by TEMPO mvfr.
A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP this
afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z and
23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop near or
just southeast of these terminals (17Z- 21Z). While gusty winds
and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and duration
will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used or leaving
out a mention of thunderstorms all together.
VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.
Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.
Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.