Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 290632 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 232 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 1230 AND 1330Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A SUNNY, CLEAR WEATHER DAY. STILL COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 850MB SO HAVE RESTRICTED MAX TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY. FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE ORIENTED POPS FROM NE TO SW. STICKING TO MAINLY CHC/SCT COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LACKING. EXPECT FAR SERN FA TO REMAIN DRY. SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PUSH. NOT A TON OF INSTABILITY, BUT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION (AROUND 30+ KTS) SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 230 AM UPDATE... VRY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM THIS MORNING. FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO LKLY POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT WL LIKELY NEED TO BE BOOSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT. FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT TEMPS TO SETTLE OUT NR SEASONAL VALUES AFT WARM START TO THE WEEK. AFTR CDFNT MVS THRU EXPECT FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW THRU END OF EXTNDD WITH 590DM RIDGE ALONG GULF COAST AND TROFFING IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... SCT-BKN LAKE CLOUDS PLAGUING NY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH EXCEPTION OF ELM AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EAST OF AIRPORT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS SKIRTING OVERHEAD NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR VSBYS AT ITH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM STARTING AT 08Z. NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT UPPER CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXING OUT BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THUS HAVE LEFT IT IN AT THIS TIME. LGT/VRB WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PVN AVIATION...PVN

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