Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 180554 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 154 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATED AT 10 PM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING NEARLY AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT... BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 2 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP. SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ANYWHERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN SAT AFTN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN. SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S. NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. IFR CIGS ARE AS CLOSE BY AS KMPO. SOME VFR MID- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0Z AT THE CNY TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR. SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS. TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... 3 PM THU UPDATE... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT. SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY FLAGS. SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...HEDEN/MSE FIRE WEATHER...

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