Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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940 FXUS61 KBGM 240728 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance, will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms again today, over the Catskills and Poconos. Most areas, though, will be dry. More summer like weather will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs in the upper seventies and eighties. Although most of the time will be rain free, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late each afternoon, particularly on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 310 am update... Regional radar loops are showing an area of light showers rotating westward from the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ early this morning, around the pesky cutoff low off the mid-Atlantic coast. Our latest high-resolution model guidance remains in good agreement that these showers will generally weaken with westward extent, with only isolated-scattered coverage, at best, anticipated over our Pocono and Catskill zones today. This seems quite reasonable, as most of our available guidance indicates that the above mentioned upper low will open up and drift northeastward today, farther offshore. For the majority of the area (from about the I-81 corridor westward), today will feature partly-mostly sunny skies, and rain-free conditions. Highs this afternoon will range in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 320 am update... The cutoff low referenced above, will continue to fill and drift northeastward over the Atlantic Wed.-Thu., no longer a controlling feature for our weather. A flat upper ridge axis will then take over, along with the onset of a warmer, more humid summer-like air mass. Highs Wed. and Thu. will range from the upper 70s-mid 80s each afternoon, along with slowly increasing surface dew points (up into the low-mid 60s by Thu.). As far as convective potential goes, we anticipate isolated showers and storms late in the day Wed., mainly over our northern and eastern zones, associated with a short-wave passage, and the approach of a weak surface boundary. Much of NY`s southern tier, as well as Northeast PA, may well end up rain-free Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact a larger portion of the forecast area by later Thu., as the just mentioned weak surface front remains in the vicinity, another short-wave impulse goes through, and higher dew points bring ML Cape values locally to near 1000 j/kg. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any day in the pd. Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the 80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the srn U.S. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through the end of the TAF period. High clouds backing in from the east and a stiff breeze off the surface will prevent fog formation early this morning. High clouds will be thickest at KAVP through late morning, with just a few clouds elsewhere. Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest this afternoon. OUTLOOK... Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible each day with brief restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...Heden

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