Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 221534 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1134 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry and mild through this afternoon. Tonight through Friday night more showers and thunderstorms are expected as fronts pass through the area. Locally heavy rain is possible. Seasonal temperatures are expected into the weekend with decreasing chances for precipitation.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1130 AM update...Forecast in good shape just minor adjustments to near term temperatures and pops. Area of convection across southern Ontario may brush the western and northern portion of the forecast area later this afternoon. This convection is being forced by an area of isentropic lift which will move into the above mentioned area this afternoon. Dry low levels will limited much of the activity to isolated coverage. 415 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused around patchy valley fog this morning, the onset of showers and storms this evening with an increase in coverage and intensity on Friday, along with warmer temperatures, a more humid air mass, and gusty s/sw winds. High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft across the region this morning has allowed for mostly clear skies and calm winds...which is favorable for areas of valley fog through srn NY and nrn PA. GOES16 satellite and area observations picking up on fog development early this morning. Fog will likely lift and mix out between 7-9 am this morning. Most of the day will be pleasant today with mostly sunny skies this morning and increasing clouds in the afternoon. A warm front will lift n/newd from the srn Great Lakes into nrn NY. As this front moves across the region, the abundance of dry air in place will need to be overcome to allow precip to form and reach the ground. It appears this will take longer than previously thought...so a delay in the precip onset was performed with the morning forecast. Now have the best chance of showers and storms along the warm front not impacting the Finger Lakes and Mohawk valley area until after sunset tonight. Precipitation efficiency will really start to ramp up Friday morning and last through the as a very warm and moist swly flow sets up ahead of an incoming upper s/w. The deep moisture streaming into the area will be associated with remnants of tropical storm Cindy. PWATs will range from 1.5 to as much as 2 inches at times Friday. Model guidance is not in strong agreement with the placement, timing or intensity of the precipitation during the day. There will likely be a convective component as the boundary warms/destabilizes during the day, but there is also some indication of a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE). Portions of NY/PA may be situated in an environment favorable for this type of heavy rain event. This type of environment consists of being in the right entrance region of an upper jet, ahead of a synoptic trough, within a plume of deep tropical moisture, and near a low level theta-e axis...and all of these conditions may end up being met. At this point, we are not ready to nail down a location or rainfall amounts, but the potential for heavy rain somewhere in the area is looking more favorable. Some times these types of events can be very localized and not well handled by model guidance, so we`ll need to be diligent in looking for signals as today progresses. The most favorable time for heavy rain appears to be during the day Friday. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed at some point. Will also need to concerned with the possibility of severe storms on Friday...with the main threat being damaging winds. Wet bulb zero heights will likely be too high to develop severe hail. Low level shear will be elevated...around 30 kt of 0-1km bulk shear...so the potential for a few tornadoes is not out of the question. High temperatures today will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows tonight will remain very mild, only dropping into the 60s and lower 70s. These mild morning temps and a strong influx of warm/moist air from the s/sw will set the stage for a hot and humid day Friday...into the 80s, with dew points in the 60s and possibly lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 4 am update... Showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday night. Models show the cold front moving a little slower. Passage late evening to around midnight. Further northward progress of tropical moisture from remnants of Cindy but most keep it south of PA. Despite this PWATs will be around 2 inches. Storm motion this period will be moving faster so only issue with flash flooding will be training. Average rainfall amounts will be under an inch this period. A "marginal" chance of severe weather the entire area Friday afternoon and evening. During the evening the biggest threat will be in northeast PA and the Catskills. Moderate instability and shear Friday evening. The instability will be mostly low level. Biggest severe threat damaging winds. Friday night lows in the 60s with the moist humid air. Slow drying behind the front Saturday. Cooler air takes its time so highs near average mostly in the upper 70s. Rainfall Saturday less than a tenth of an inch with chance pops. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 am update... Little change to the forecast here. Unsettled and cooler than normal with an upper level trough over the area Monday and Tuesday. Some improvement Wednesday to Thursday as heights slowly build and surface high pressure sets up across the middle Atlantic states. previous discussion... The second half of the weekend into early and mid next week still looks to feature a cool and overall unsettled pattern as the next upper level trough and associated surface features move through the Great Lakes region. Sunday looks to be the relatively driest day in the long range with only isolated to scattered afternoon showers. A pair of stronger waves moving through Monday and again Tuesday afternoon will bring a better chance for more widespread showers and storms. Temperatures through the long range will be generally below average with highs mainly in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will continue to dominate today with VFR conditions after the valley fog lifts and mixes out after 13Z. A warm front will moves in from the w/sw this evening and bring mid lvl clouds to the region, along with a few rain showers to KSYR and KRME after 03Z. The front is expected to lift to the north after 06Z, with much of the region in a dry slot with precipitation holding off until after 12Z Friday. Light and variable winds this morning will become S/SW around 5 to 10 knots later today and persist tonight. Outlook... Thursday through Friday night...Showers and thunderstorms, especially Friday, with associated restrictions. Saturday - Monday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief restriction possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...RRM/TAC AVIATION...BJT/KAH/RRM

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