Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 131311 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 911 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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910 AM UPDATE... WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 295K UPGLIDE HAS ALLOWED PCPN TO BLOSSOM ACRS CNTRL PA AND IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREA AS OF 13Z. HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY OVR WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO AS SFC BNDRY APPCHS FM THE WEST. HV MADE VRY FEW CHGS TO GRIDS BYND THE NEXT FEW HRS OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HRLY T/TD VALUES. PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO... 6 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLOUDY ENTIRE CWA. UPPED POPS TO HANDLE WHAT SHOULD BE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS THE WRN CWA LATE MORNING WITH STEADIER SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. 3 AM UPDATE... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR CLE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NE AND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS IS PUSHING THE SFC FEATURE. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER MICHIGAN IS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UL TROF. THE UL FLOW IS FAST AND ZONAL WITH THIS EMBEDDED TROF SO SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG. QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. BY 00Z SFC FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND UL TROF IN ERN NY. RAIN WILL END QUICKLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA NW FLOW AGAIN THIS EVE WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS. LATE AT NIGHT THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND DRY AIR COMES IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH FURTHEST FROM THE LAKE MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SINKING AIR WHICH WILL CLEAR THE SKIES SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUN NGT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S. SOME U30S LIKELY FROM THE CATSKILLS TO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. MONDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS AND PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UL TROF MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT WITH SHOWERS. AGAIN WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PULLING EAST OF REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SPED UP THIS FEATURE SO WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH A DRY AFTERNOON. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. S/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING S/SW LATE THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR. MVFR LIKELY SUN MRNG CNTRL NY BEFORE IMPRVG TO VFR. POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT ELM EARLY MON MRNG. TUE...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN SHWRS. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

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