Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 182355 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 755 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA. MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT. PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS. BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS OFF THE NJ SHORE. TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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00Z UPDATE... CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT/MON...VFR. MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM... AVIATION...MDP

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