Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 182348 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 648 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR NRN PA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1 PM UPDATE... UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND SCENARIO COULD CHANGE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR. MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MSE/TAC

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