Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 271428 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1028 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE NEAR THE SYRACUSE AREA ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF HERE. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 7 AM UPDATE... GRIDS TWEAKED FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DETAILS /WHERE IT PERSISTS VERSUS WHERE IT HAS CLEARED/ AND DAWN TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE LEFT AT THIS POINT AND FADING FAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ALOFT WHICH IS COLLAPSING THE INVERSION HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SPRINKLES FIGURED BY DAWN AND ENDING QUICKLY. CLOUD COVER ITSELF IS ALSO ERODING QUICKLY IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AND NORTHEAST PA AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGIONS. LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY WITH DECENT OF AMOUNT OF SUN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REMAINS LAKE CLOUDS WILL FALL APART...YET SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL ALSO START SPREADING IN LATER TODAY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THUS MAINLY DRY. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE PASSING SHOWER NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY OVERNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY TRENDING UP BEFORE DAWN...SOME LOW TO MID 50S ALREADY BY 12Z TUESDAY PARTICULARLY FINGER LAKES REGION EN ROUTE TO THE MUCH WARMER DAY AHEAD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A VERY WARM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERY COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE THUNDER. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD BY DAWN TUESDAY...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW UPPER MICHIGAN...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT WILL PLACE US SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SURGING OUR 850MB TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-MID TEENS CELSIUS. NOT EXPECTING DAILY RECORDS TO FALL /STILL ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES AWAY/...BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY BE CLOSER TO THOSE THAN TO CLIMATOLOGY. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT HIGHEST TERRAIN IN UPPER 60S. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE ALSO INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT DURING THE DAY...WE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE KNOCKING OUR WESTERN DOOR BY DINNERTIME. SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO DEFLECT TOWARDS JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE OUR COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE FLOW-PARALLEL WITH TIME AND SLOWS ITS PACE WHILE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. WE SIT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY EVENING...CREATING FORCED ASCENT WHICH SHOWS UP WELL IN MODEL OMEGA FIELDS. SOME CAPE WILL ALSO EXIST UPSTREAM TUESDAY AFTERNOON COURTESY OF MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN NY-PA...BUT GOING FARTHER EAST /AND DEEPER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/ WE LOSE THAT CAPE. SO THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS GOING FOR THUNDER WITHIN THE FRONTAL SHOWERS IN WESTERN PA-NY...THEN LESS SO WITH EASTERN PROGRESS. ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELY SHOWERS I HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST OF SYRACUSE-ITHACA-ELMIRA LINE...THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ROUGHLY I-88 CORRIDOR TO MONTROSE-TUNKHANNOCK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS GIVEN AMOUNT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DESPITE EVENTUAL LOSS OF THUNDER...SHOWERS STILL APPEAR LIKELY AS FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF AREA DEEP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN JET ALSO COMING INTO PLAY FOR CONTINUED FORCED ASCENT. BEHIND FRONT WEDNESDAY...A RETURN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES...AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS VEERING WNW INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NY /ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SYRACUSE-HAMILTON-COOPERSTOWN LINE/ LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SATURATED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIXING IN OF ANY SNOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AT 00Z PROVIDE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OF CLARITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THEY DID AT 12Z YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE. IN A GENERAL SENSE...MUCH OF THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTCOME OF THIS TROF DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW IS UP IN THE AIR IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY IN THE THERMAL FIELDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY DO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME SNOW FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ASSUMING THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING WORKS OUT...THIS SNOW MAY COME AS A FUNCTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WRAPPING SNOW AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILING LAKE EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY...OR BOTH. IF THE LOW DEPARTS WITHIN THIS PERIOD...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONLY CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO BLEND IN SOME NEW WPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PLUS ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH NEARBY OFFICES FOR SPATIAL CONTINUITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NW FLOW EXPECTED THRU THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO BLO CLIMO VALUES. MODEL DISPARITY BECOMES APPARENT BY 12Z FRIDAY AS 12Z GFS CONTS TO INDICATE LOPRES MVG THRU THE GREAT LKS ON FRIDAY WHERE AS EC AND CMC DO NOT. BOTH EC/CMC SWING A H5 TROF THRU FRI/FRI NGT WITH GFS CLOSING OFF UPR LVL LOW AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF. SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OPERATIONAL MEAN DOES NOT. HV CONTD WITH CONTINUITY AND BLENDED WPC GUIDANCE IN AND THUS HV 30 POPS FRI-SAT. WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR -6C ON SAT MRNG HV GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VLYS WITH POSSIBLY ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EITHER WAY, TEMPS WL PLUNGE WELL BLO NORMAL DRG THE WEEKEND ON NRLY FLOW WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -10C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BLO 520DM. HIGH TEMPS APPEAR TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40-DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY AND LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S FOR SUN MRNG. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LAKE EFFECT CLOUD PLUMES WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AND REGENERATE OFF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KRME-KSYR-KBGM AND KITH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. SFC-H85 RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...AND LIGHTER. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD ALLOW LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS AOA FL100 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY...THEN ESE-SSE 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR CIG. TUE NGT-WED...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS. THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...JAB/PVF AVIATION...JAB

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