Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 280802 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 402 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 220 AM EDT UPDATE... DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 220 AM EDT UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY FRIDAY. THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR- MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25 KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...MDP/TAC AVIATION...MDP

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