Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 252352 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 752 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH/S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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750 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND WILL FOLLOW. AS EXPECTED CONVECTION HAS PICKED UP A BIT IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WHILE TRACKING EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. INCREASED POPS HERE TO LIKELY. BY 03Z AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF I-81 IT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT WITH TIME. LATEST HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNY AND THE FINGER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH CHANCE POP HERE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. MODELS CONT TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MVG THRU LTR TNGT CONTG TO WEAKEN IN TIME. MODEL QPF AND FCST REFLECTIVETY HAS BACKED OFF SO HAVE LWRD POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVRNGT. ESSENTIALLY THE SHRT WV SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LVG ONLY SOME LL CONV AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTED BY A BRIEF LWRG OF HGTS AS THE WV PASSES. ALSO...WITH A LRG HIGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MID LVL WRMG LIMITS THE AVBL CAPE AND EVEN THE NAM ONLY HAS CAPES OF A FEW HNDRD OVRNGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUBTLE FEATURES AT WORK ON SUN AS THE MODELS SHOW PCPN LINGERING OVER THE NE CST AND PERHAPS INTO THE XTRM SERN ZONES SUN. SYSTEM KIND OF STALLS AS THE RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WRN NY BEGINS TO BLD TRAPPING THE TROF BETWEEN IT AND A RDG OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WITH INCRSD HTG A SHWR OR TSTM PSBL OVER THE NEPA ZONES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS. RDG BLDS IN SOLIDLY FOR MON ADN TUE WITH SHRP HGT RISES. TEMPS MON AFTN AND ESP TUE COULD RCH INTO THE LWR 90S...ESP IN THE SUSQ VLYS AND ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM SYR WWRD. WRN CATS AND THE TUG HILL WILL BE THE COOLEST PLACE TO BE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 345 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BREAK DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHTS/THKNS AND H85 TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS WEEK...PEAKING AT 1 SD ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WHICH REALLY ONLY MEANS WE SHOULD SEE THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S. PWATS ALSO SURGE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR ONE OF THOSE HOT/HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT DISPLACING THE HEAT. THEN...BROAD CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO SET UP AGAIN WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEXT FRI-SAT WITH MAINLY DRY WX. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z UPDATE...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLE TSRA...WILL DRIFT THROUGH MAINLY KITH IN THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF FORECAST...WITH OTHER STATIONS EXPERIENCING MAINLY MID-HIGH LVL VFR CIGS. THEN...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ACTIVITY AFT 03Z...BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. VFR WITH OCNL SHRA IS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS XCPT KAVP. ON SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS WITHIN A LOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING...THEN MIXES HIGHER AND SCATTERS OUT TO VFR. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE KAVP VCNTY AFT 18Z...BUT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM. WINDS LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT BECOMING W-NW 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK... MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. COLD FROPA WITH SCT TSRA...MVFR/IFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...JAB

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