-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 011149
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH WILL BE VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A 1017 MB LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA.
LIFT AND NOT MOISTURE WILL BE THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
VERY LITTLE LIFT FOUND ANYWHERE. IF WE MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT
ANYTHING TODAY AND TONIGHT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ACROSS CNY
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS NEAR 40 THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT DUSTING COMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS
DOWN FROM ABOVE. FOR NOW JUST WORDED THE FORECAST AS FLURRIES
TAPERING BUT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE IF
WE HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT AROUND. WHILE AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND
A TRACE...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT AN END
IN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY DUE TO THE DRYING THAN A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE THUS I AM LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE WE WILL BE WATCHING IS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA NOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AND UNLIKE
THE DISTURBANCE FOR LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A BIT DEEPER AND
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. IN RESPONSE A COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP LATER MONDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS BUT HEAD OUT TO
SEA. OUT BEST SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS
WOULD POINT TO A MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN EVENT. THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE
COLDER SO I CONTINUED THE COURSE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THIS
TIME. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY HOWEVER BEST SHOT AT SNOW AND A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS (STEUBEN
COUNTY/CATSKILLS/ONEIDA COUNTY). QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT SO
WE ARE NOT TALKING MUCH.

FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT I
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AROUND GIVEN THE TROF AXIS
DOES NOT PASS THROUGH UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER THE
BIG WEATHER PLAYERS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND WEST...WITH QUIET
WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE (OUR AREA). TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH HIGHS NEAR 40. WHILE THIS IS NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER IT
WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER GIVEN OUR RECENT COLD STRETCH. IF YOU HAVE
TIME OFF FROM WORK IT MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO GET UP OUTSIDE
DECORATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RAMPANT...WITH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL AS LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES.
OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
ECMWF/CMC...ENSEMBLES...AND PRIOR RUNS. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CRUMBLING...WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL BE
MAINLY DRY UNLIKE AS DEPICTED BY 00Z GFS. REMAINDER OF PERIOD
UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...PEAKING
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN VICINITY OF WAVY FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW. 12Z FRIDAY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY FROM MID 530S TO UPPER
550S FOR 1000-500MB THICKNESS...A RIDICULOUS AMOUNT OF SPREAD.
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS ON COLD SIDE OF THIS...BUT ECMWF AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS REMAIN QUITE WARM /WPC GUIDANCE IS MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS/. BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MED RANGE MODELS NOW IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. H5
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS WEEK AND SHUD
EJECT OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HWVR MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON THIS
WV CAN EJECT OUT WITH 12Z GFS INDICATING A PIECE OF IT MVG INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUE WITH 00Z EC STILL ADVERTISING H5 RIDGE IN PLACE.
EITHER WAY, TROF RELOADS BY MID-WEEK ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
ONLY IMPACTS ON AREA WX WL BE HOW SOON PCPN WL ENTER CWA FM THIS
APPCHG WV WITH 12Z GFS BRINGING IT IN BY WED AFTN AND 0Z0 EURO
GIVING US EXTENSIVE RIDGING FOR WED. ONLY PCPN WL BE ASSOC WITH
DEPARTING WV IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND POSSIBLY WRAP-ARND LK
EFFECT FIRST 12 HRS OF THE LONG TERM.

FOR THE TIME BEING HV SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FOLLOWS EURO
CLOSELY. NO PCPN EXPECTED UNTIL THUR AFTN AND WITH THICKNESS VALUES
TO CLIMB TO 550+ DRG THE DAY UNDER WARM SW FLOW, HIGH TEMPS SHUD TOP
OUT IN THE L/M 40S.  EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THUR MRNG AS SFC
BNDRY APPCHS AND THEN CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID DRG THE AFTN.

OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSES TWD THE AREA THUR NGT WITH THICKNESS
VALUES APPCHG 560 BY 12Z FRIDAY. THUS WL KEEP IT ALL LIQUID THRU
FRIDAY. 00Z EC INDICATING ANOTHER WV RIDING ALONG BNDRY ON FRIDAY
BRINGING MORE CHCS FOR RAIN BFR THIS WV FINALLY PULLS THE FRONT THRU
AND IMPENDING CLDR AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z UPDATE...
REMAINDER OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AROUND 1800 FT AGL HAVE
DISSIPATED...ENDING MVFR AT KAVP. MEANWHILE...HIGH THIN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10 KFT AGL ARE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL LOWER CIGS VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY...EVENTUALLY TO MVFR...AS WELL AS
SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SOME TERMINALS /SPRINKLES-
FLURRIES- DRIZZLE/. OTHER THAN LOCALIZED LIGHT VALLEY WIND FROM
ESE FOR KRME...GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
TODAY BECOMING VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH TUE...MVFR FROM DECK OF CLOUDS AND/OR OCCASIONAL
-SHRA/-SHSN ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED...MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT/THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP