Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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101 FXUS61 KBGM 221042 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 642 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today as heat and humidity increase across the region. Dry weather is forecast for the remainder of the weekend along with above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A difficult low confidence forecast is the theme for today. Models continue to indicate the atmosphere will destabilize this afternoon with NAM indicating CAPE values of 2-4k J/KG with the GFS around 1500-3000 J/KG. These numbers are pretty impressive for the local area although model surface dew points are forecast to reach the lower to middle 70s which is unlikely. Mid level lapse rates are more impressive than the events we have seen so far this year. The lack of a real trigger is what is missing which makes the pop forecast and timing a conundrum. The mid level wave forecast to go through this afternoon is almost non-existent compared to two days ago and the surface feature remains very nebulous. The environmental winds and deep layer shear could support the development of severe convection with damaging winds the primary threat. SPC has put most of the region back into slight risk but this appears overdone and the discussion indicates low confidence. Will issue an HWO indicating a few storms could become severe. Will increase pops into the low chance category this morning and keep the chances going through early evening. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dew points rising into the mid 60s to around 70 it will be rather uncomfortable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...After the above mentioned convection diminishes during the evening hours the remainder of the overnight period will be dry. Saturday...H5 short wave will drop through northern New york State during the afternoon and possibly trigger thunderstorms across northern Oneida county. Will continue with low chance pops here and dry elsewhere. Maximum temperatures will range from the middle 80s to around 90. Saturday night/Sunday...Upper level heights rise as a brief ridge builds over the region. Surface high pressure will be in the vicinity with abundant sunshine likely on Sunday along with high temperatures once again in the middle 80s to around 90. Sunday night...Next upper level wave approaches the region along with a weak warm front. After midnight will advertise chance/slight chance pops for thunderstorms across central New York and northern Pennsylvania. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 310 AM EDT Update... Monday appears to be our next best chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region. A shortwave will propagate eastward along the northern periphery of a potent upper level ridge Monday afternoon. The attendant sfc low to the shortwave will lift northward into northern Quebec and force a weak cold front/boundary across the region. This boundary will be the focus for convection. By Tuesday morning the flow aloft will become zonal and a surface ridge will build back into the region through Thursday afternoon. Thurs night another shortwave will propagate along the outer edge of the upper lvl ridge and slide across the region. This feature may generate showers and thunderstorms across the region. Temps during the forecast period will continue to be summer-like with temps ranging in the 80s and 90s each day, with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A chance for showers and thunderstorms will be present this afternoon and evening at all taf sites except for KAVP as we will be in an very unstable airmass with copious amounts of low level moisture. For much of the forecast period expect VFR flight conditions. During TSRA, brief restrictions may be possible. Winds will pick up quickly after sunrise from the W/SW, around 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots may be frequent today. Winds will weaken near sunset, then become light and variable overnight. OUTLOOK... Sat & Sun morning...VFR, except for potential for valley fog. Mon & Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...KAH

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