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422
FXUS61 KBGM 071843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front moves through today with a threat for heavy rain showers
and thunderstorms across NY into the Northern Tier of PA.
Tomorrow, less muggy conditions are expected with NE PA having
the best chance for additional showers and thunderstorms in the
late morning into the afternoon. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday before an active pattern returns for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update

Mid and high clouds for the Southern Tier and south this
morning has helped keep temperatures cooler but as the clouds
dissipate and move east, temperatures will rise through the
afternoon ahead of an approaching front. Looking at vertical
wind profiles from NYSM profilers as well as from BUF, BGM, and
ALY radars, shear is really low, 15 or less knots below 6 km,
with ALY seeing the best shear near 20 knots. Surface based cape
has risen to around 2000 J/kg though mix layer cape is closer
to 1000 J/kg. Low level lapse rates are looking better with the
0-3 km lapse rates >7 in the Finger Lakes but mid level lapse
rates are low, between 5.5 and 6 so that will limit updraft
speed. The severe threat looks to be lowering outside of a low
potential for microburst with the dry air in the mid levels with
downdrafts able to take advantage of the steeper low level
lapse rates.

Flash flooding is a concern this afternoon given precipitable
water values up over 1.75 and even close to 2.0 inches near the
approaching front and warm cloud depths over 12,000 feet. Storms
ahead of the front developing in central PA are in fairly fast
flow and will be moving fast at 20 to 30 mph so issues in the
near term are not expected until the front moves in later this
afternoon. Training along the slow moving front through the
Finger Lakes into CNY and western/central portions of the Twin
Tiers could lead to isolated flash flooding, especially if any
region gets hit by convection ahead of the front this afternoon.
As we head towards midnight, instability wanes with deeper
convection weakening and precipitation becomes more showery.

Tomorrow, the front will be in NEPA and looks to mostly drop
south of the region before instability really builds with day
time heating but convection could begin to fire in the late
morning over the Poconos. Shear will be a little better tomorrow
along the front as a trough digs into the Great Lakes region
increasing the winds aloft. Behind the front across the Twin
Tiers and northward, drier air making its way in will help bring
in less muggy conditions and low chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
230 PM Forecast...

Surface high pressure slides east in into the region Wednesday
morning keeping conditions mainly dry. Skies will remain partly
cloudy throughout most of the day due to the influence of an
incoming shortwave. Scattered showers should start to develop over
NEPA during the evening hours, spreading to the NE as the shortwave
progresses eastward. There is still some model variation with how
this will play out. The GFS solution brings slightly higher chances
of showers in NEPA, while the EURO solution keeps conditions mostly
dry until Thursday afternoon. Southwest flow will keep temperatures
warm with highs in the low to mid 80s both Wednesday and Thursday.
Another short wave is expected to move through Thursday afternoon
with additional showers and thunderstorms. Instability parameters
are more favorable Thursday afternoon, with CAPE values up to
1,100 J/Kg and shear values ranging 25 to 30 knots. The best
chance for rain and isolated thunder will be ESE of the Finger
Lakes region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
230 PM Forecast...

The period remains active with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the weekend. An upper level trough will
allow moisture to linger into Friday before lifting eastward,
maintaining a chance for showers. By Saturday, our region
becomes positioned between two upper-level low features, while a
brief ridge begins to build in. This may result in a short-lived
dry period Saturday morning before another round of showers
develops by the afternoon. A more organized frontal system is
expected to move through the region on Sunday as the ridge
shifts east and a broad upper level trough advances from the
west. This setup will enhance southwesterly flow ahead of the
cold front, increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing along the front south
of Lake Ontario and will move into CNY over the next few hours.
RME, SYR, and ITH will see storms move through prior to 0Z while
BGM and ELM will see them later this afternoon. Storms look to
weaken prior to reaching AVP around 3Z. Tempos have been added
for the rough timing of the frontal passage with the showers and
thunderstorms.

Tonight, fog likely develops at ELM with some post frontal
stratus leading to MVFR cigs at most CNY terminals.

Tomorrow, the front will be near AVP with low potential for
showers and thunderstorms to develop near the terminal closer to
18Z but confidence is not there yet ti include any restrictions
in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Tuesday night Through Wednesday night...Morning MVFR stratus
clouds possible, especially ELM, BGM and AVP. Mainly VFR in the
afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Saturday...Restrictions possible with some showers
and thunderstorms around.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     023>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG