-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 131750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...

825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...

5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.

GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.

FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.

TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WED...VFR.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...