-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE ANY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AND WE HAVE SEEN TEMPS REALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB AT ALL.
WITH THAT SAID IN A NARROW AREA ALONG OUR BORDER WITH KBUF WE ARE
ALREADY INTO THE 70S SO WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND 50S TO NEAR 60
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER POPS DRAMATICALLY AREA WIDE. OUR
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT IT JUST DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. ON
CLOSER INSPECTION THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING QPF BASED ON THE
MOIST PROFILES WE ARE SEEING AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEING
OVERLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE TWO MAIN FOCUS
AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST WITH OUR DEPARTING BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING. THEN
LATER TODAY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN NY COMBINED WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FARTHER EAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET UP A NICE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH ALONG WITH ANY
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE RUC DOES SHOW CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG BUT
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...KEPT IT ISOLATED AT BEST. AS
THIS DIES DOWN THIS EVENING EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME I DO BELIEVE THE MODELS IN THAT
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY
(NIGHTTIME) WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AS USUAL THE MOST LIKELY SUSPECTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

950 PM UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST
WEST OF UTICA SOUTHEAST THROUGH MADISON...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES THROUGH 1 PM
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF RAMPING POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS BARELY
GETTING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THICK CLOUD COVER.
WARMEST TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH KSYR WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SOME SUNSHINE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...



RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR
NERN PA IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU
EC NY AND THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT
SHRA ACVTY WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH
OF LIGHT SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.

FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT KITH/KBGM CIGS WILL DROP BELOW ALT MIN
OVERNIGHT WITH KRME/KELM/KAVP OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING, A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A WEAK SFC TROF
APPROACHES TH REGION.

WINDS S-SE BETWEEN AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM