Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBGM 272345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In tha wake of this first area,
destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into Lake
Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in the low
levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still located
upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly flow. For
the late afternoon into early this evening, first area of showers
will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the CWA by
this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or storms
may form over remaining areas where clearing and destabilization
Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.
For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.
Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.
An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.
Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.
Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing across the Poconos
and Catskills on a westerly flow. There were scattered mid clouds
around 5000 to 7000 AGL also moving through central NY. A boundary
has stalled from just east of KSYR southwest to just east of KELM.
The boundary has not reached KITH and it looks stationary on the
KBGM radar loop. South and east of this boundary the winds were
southerly and low-level moisture was more plentiful with dewpoints
in the 60s. West of this boundary dewpoints have fallen into the
50s and the flow was westerly. It looks like winds will die off at
the surface overnight and return to southerly all sites and a few
thousand feet up the winds will remain south to southwest. With
nocturnal cooling expect MVFR ceilings to develop across KAVP-KBGM
with less chance for this farther north and west. KITH will be
close. Time the MVFR to KAVP and KBGM around 06Z. Rest of TAFS
will be VFR.
For Tuesday, mainly VFR in cumulus with a period of thunderstorms
between 17z and 21z KRME, KITH, KSYR and KELM, 18-22z KBGM and
20z-24z KAVP. Expect MVFR vsby and cig at times in thunderstorms.
So have a tempo group in TAFs for these times.
Surface winds will be S-SW at 5 to 10 knots and turn northwest
late in the forecast period except for KAVP.
Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.