Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 220620 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 220 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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215 AM UPDATE... VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG DURATION. THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER NEW ENGLAND/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS THE LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTENT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD. LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD. TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE SLGTLY ABV NRML.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE- ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10 KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES. SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. SUNDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...PVF AVIATION...

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