-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 050651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONT WILL PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...WITH ONLY SOME FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. CLEARING SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAWN THURSDAY WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO.
HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
145 AM UPDATE...
A MID LEVEL FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO BETWEEN THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS.
A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THAT FRONT...YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK...WHICH WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUMULATION AT BEST. THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL INITIATE THE
SLIDE SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
QUITE SHALLOW AND LIMITED. THUS ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO THE TWIN
TIERS...OF BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IF ANY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDS MOVED IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THUS
TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD UP QUITE A BIT SO FAR DURING THE NIGHT.
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING. DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT RANGING FROM
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S SOUTH WHERE THE
FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO PASS THROUGH. SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AS
FLOW VEERS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND SLACKENS WITH THE BUILDING IN
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
240 PM UPDATE...
SFC HIPRES WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW
NGT WITH MINS ONCE AGAIN MAKING A RUN AT BLO ZERO ONCE AGAIN. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NGT WITH FLURRIES DIMINISHING EARLY IN
THE EVNG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW KICKING IN AND
LOW-LVL MOISTURE AT H9 MAKING A RUN AT WRN ZONES. EXPECT SKIES TO GO
PCLDY DRG THE AFTN HRS. 925MB TEMPS WL RISE TO BTWN -7C TO -9C, WRMR
IN THE LK PLAIN WITH AFTN MAXES TOPPING OUT ARND 30F.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY ATMOS
UNDER HIPRES. PCLDY SKIES WL EXIST THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS UL TROF
HANGS BACK WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH WAA CONTG ON PERIPHERY OF
HIGH AND H9 TEMPS RISING TO NR -2C MAXES WL APPCH AND POSSIBLY
EXCEED NRML VALUES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1250 PM UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR AREA. MAIN THEME WILL BE RELAXING OF THE COLD AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, WITH MANY SUBTLE FEATURES THAT WILL BRING US
CHANCES FOR SNOW (LIGHT) EVERY DAY OR SO. UPPER AIR PATTERN GOES
MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40. WHILE NOT BALMY, IT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE WHICH WILL BE A PLUS GIVEN OUR COLD WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG A MIDLEVEL FRONT...IS YIELDING A BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHWEST NEW
YORK. IT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS KSYR-KRME 09Z-13Z THIS MORNING
YIELDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS. THE WAVE WILL INITIATE A GRADUAL
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF NW-NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHALLOW MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND VERY LIGHT
MAINLY NON-RESTRICTING FLURRIES /LOW END VFR FOR KELM-KAVP/.
EXCEPTIONS COULD BE KSYR-KRME WHERE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY OF
MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. KITH IS MORE IFFY...BUT WITH FLOW DOWN CAYUGA
LAKE...LOCAL EFFECT PRODUCING UPSLOPE FINGER LAKE SNOW BAND WILL
MAKE IFR VIS SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT CURRENTLY IN TAF AS
IFR BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR...AND TAF WILL BE AMENDED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FLOW VEERS NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE DECOUPLING
THIS EVENING...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT CIGS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...ON THE WAY TO
CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM
-SHSN FRI NGT TO SAT NGT TIME FRAME AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY CENTRAL NY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PVN
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP