Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 272340 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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630 PM EDT UPDATE... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY... AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 530 PM EDT UPDATE... ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERALL TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST... PREVIOUS FORECAST... 1045 AM UPDATE... SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST, BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C) UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT. WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL, GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET. THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE 4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN. IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO. FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST. WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH. FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY TUESDAY. FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR. ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...DGM/MLJ

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