Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 200816 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 416 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A quick shot of rain is expected today. Then, steadier and heavier rain will occur tonight into Friday night, along and just behind a slow moving cold front. Much chillier, unsettled weather is expected this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 am update... Clouds and showers moving in this morning. This ahead of a surface low moving northeast on the east side of a deep upper level trough. A surface frontal boundary lined up with the steering flow will move slowly east this period. A north to south area of showers now in western PA will move east through the CWA today. Low level instability will be lacking. Winds speeds and shear good. Weak mid level instability could cause a thunderstorm or two. Rainfall amounts today mostly less than an inch. Isolated locations could get more. Not anticipating problems during the day. Without an all day rain today, temperatures will rise into the low and mid 60s. Some sun possible except in the far north. Steady rain will move in this evening and last into Friday night. Most of the rain will train northeast from Steuben to Onondaga Counties in NY. Here rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches. The Poconos and southern Catskills will not see much rain until Friday. Amounts here mostly just under an inch. Given the dry antecedent conditions not expecting widespread flooding. Isolated flash flooding possible mainly in urban areas in NY late tonight to Friday. With the slow movement of the frontal boundary training is likely and will be watched closely. Rivers and larger streams should rise several feet but flooding is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night, a negatively tilted upper level trof will slowly move through the area as an elongated surface low from eastern New York to New Jersey merges with a coastal low. This surface feature will then lift northeast into northern New England by 12Z Saturday. Steady precipitation will gradually end over western and southern portions of the forecast area but continue over New York from I81 east due to wrap around moisture, some frontogenetic forcing and lake enhancement as T85 drops to around -3C. Saturday...Surface low pressure moves through northern New England and into eastern Quebec giving the area a cold northwest flow. With T85 hovering around -4C lake enhanced rain showers will be mixed with wet snow over the higher elevations of the western Catskills and tuff hill plateau during the morning. Will continue with likely pops from the Syracuse area east to the western Catskills and chance elsewhere. Some of the higher elevations in the above mentioned areas could see a light coating of wet snow. Maximum temperatures will range in the lower to middle 40s. Saturday night...Vertically stacked system continues slowly moving into eastern Canada. A cold westerly flow with T85 around -3C will keep the chance for mixed rain and snow showers over the northern/eastern forecast area. Rest of region will be dry. A light dusting of snow is possible over the higher terrain of northern Oneida county and the western Catskills. Overnight lows will range in the lower to middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended period looks unsettled initially then rather quiet with another system late in the period. Sunday will be mainly dry for the region except for lingering lake effect rain/snow showers primarily Sunday morning under westerly flow. Sunday night and Monday a weak upper level disturbance will move through the region bringing the chance for rain showers which could mix with some wet snow in the higher elevations of the western Catskills early Monday morning. Monday night through Wednesday looks primarily dry with surface high pressure in the vicinity. Next chance for rain showers will be on Thursday when a system moves toward us from the mid west. Temperatures through the period will run around five degrees below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 130 am update... VFR continues early this morning. Conditions quickly deteriorate when the showers move in 12 to 15z. Cigs/vsbys fall to at least MVFR and maybe IFR. Some heavy rain could drop vsbys to IFR. Slight improvement late afternoon ELM/AVP where the showers end. Tonight conditions drop back to MVFR and IFR conditions, with steady rain starting. Cold front approaches tonight. Definite fuel alternate MVFR tonight at least. BGM has the best chance of falling to IFR cigs late morning then staying there through 06z. East winds at 5 kts early this morning. Shift to southeast and south during the day and increasing to 5 to 10 kts. OUTLOOK... Thursday overnight-Friday night...MVFR/IFR. Widespread restrictions in rain and low ceilings. Saturday-Sunday...Scattered showers and intermittent restrictions, especially Central NY terminals. Monday...Improving to VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...TAC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.