Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 280537 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 137 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dense river valley fog is likely overnight and will burn off Wednesday morning. Clouds will thicken Wednesday with showers possible by Wednesday evening. Showery weather will last from late Wednesday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 PM update...Forecast on track. Only made minor changes to sky, temp, dew point grids for this evening based on latest conditions. 2 pm Update... A nice afternoon across our area with our region in a dry slot. Even a CU field is having trouble forming with the most cloud cover over northern NY (CU) or lake effect clouds north to northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. We will remain mostly clear overnight. With warm river waters, a light rainfall last night, and calm conditions, river valley fog is likely to be dense between 06Z and 13Z Wednesday. After early fog Wednesday sunshine early will lead to thickening clouds especially southern NY and PA ahead of our next system. Most of the rain will hold off but showers are possible from the NY/PA border toward 5 PM as an upper level low drops due south, and moisture around it increase in a increasing southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 pm update...Main focus this period will be on rainfall potential with the slow moving closed upper low. In the big picture, model agreement is excellent this period, with a cutoff low in the upper levels meandering over the Ohio Valley, and a large ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across eastern New England and southeastern Canada. This configuration of systems will place central NY/northeastern PA in a deep, moist east-southeast flow pattern. In and of itself, this should be enough for plenty of clouds, along with periodic, mostly light rainfall. The primary issue, though, is how much potential do we have for something heavier/more significant. More details on this below. The best combination of anomalous winds in the 2-5 thousand foot layer and an associated surge of higher precipitable water values (approaching 1.5"), along with forced lift from favorable upper jet dynamics, appears to come from the pre-dawn hours Thursday, through the day, and into the evening. It is then that locally heavy showers could bring rainfall amounts of 1-2" from parts of NY`s central southern tier down into portions of northeastern PA. Given our dry antecedent conditions, such rainfall amounts would be easily handled. However, with some potential for embedded convection Thursday afternoon/early evening, any training cells could bring locally higher amounts and some risk for poor drainage area/urban type runoff issues. As a result, we will insert this wording within our hazardous weather outlook. Although showery weather should remain in place through Friday, the overall character of the rainfall should become less concentrated/more scattered with time, as a dry slot aloft appears likely to approach the region from the south. Temperatures will probably not move much this period, with daytime highs mainly in the 60s, and clouds holding overnight lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 245 pm update...Although it should slowly open up/lift out to the northeast with time, the above mentioned upper low/trough should continue to have enough influence through the weekend, for at least isolated-scattered showers. By early next week, it looks like a short-wave ridge aloft will be moving in from the west, with generally rain-free weather. Given an apparent lack of any cool air push from central/eastern Canada, temperatures should average near to above normal for early October (highs from the mid 60s-lower 70s and lows in the 40s- 50s). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Valley fog will impact the KELM terminal this morning with conditions expected to deteriorate into the IFR category between 08Z-10Z then near airport minimums until 13Z. Rest of period VFR conditions are expected with mid clouds spreading across the terminals this afternoon through early evening. Late in the TAF period conditions at KELM/KAVP may drop into the MVFR category as a southerly flow of increasing moisture develops. Light and variable winds overnight becoming E/SE at 8-12 knots this morning and continuing this evening. OUTLOOK... Wednesday Night-Sunday...Possible occasional restrictions from showers associated with upper level system in region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Heden NEAR TERM...Heden/PCF SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...RRM

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