Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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910 FXUS61 KBGM 071857 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 157 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A MILD AND FAIR SUNDAY, A GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE, SO JUST MINOR SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE TWEAKS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN A NARROW ZONE OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING, SUNNY SKIES COVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOUD MASS SHOULD SHRINK/DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH, THIN CLOUDINESS ENCROACHING ON PARTS OF THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY. THESE WILL DO LITTLE TO SPOIL A SUNNY, MILD AFTERNOON. GIVEN OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, THE EXPECTATION OF SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND CONTINUED SUNSHINE, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 155 AM UPDATE... WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES LOW WILL BRING ABNORMALLY HIGH THICKNESSES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, WITH 925MB 0C ISOTHERM NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM MISSES OUR REGION TO THE RIGHT, THE CYCLONE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP CARVE OUT THE UL TROF AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COOLER END OF WEEK. THE WEST EDGE OF COASTAL`S PRECIP SHIELD IS CLOSE ENOUGH THE THE POCONOS REGION TO BEAR WATCHING, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PRECIP IS FROM THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN FA MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROF SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL, TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER ROUGHLY 36 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING CYCLONE WILL GENERATE LAKE SNOWS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT. TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT, LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE. THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KRME WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...3-7 KNOTS OR LESS. .OUTLOOK... MON...VFR. MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...PCF

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