Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261858 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 258 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. NEXT SYSTEM COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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3PM UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO MA/CT/RI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST PA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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3 PM UPDATE... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BLOCKED AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN OVER GREENLAND. SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS SITTING AROUND NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO WORK FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATL STATES...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE NEWEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE EURO STILL SHOWING THE SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING EVERYTHING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/EURO BLEND WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND THE NORTHEASTERN PA AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THAT WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE PICTURE AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY. SOME ARE KEEPING IT WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH OTHERS HAVING IT MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. SO WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY MID DAY SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME...THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH ERN CANADA ON TOP OF THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL LIFT TO THE E/NE EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG LAYER LIFTING FROM ROBUST WAA WILL PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL SPREAD N/NEWD INTO CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPWARDS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE SRN FA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM JAMES BAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NE PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, MVFR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z, THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 22Z. BEHIND THE FRONT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ALT REQUIRED THROUGH 01Z KRME/KSYR AND THROUGH 03Z KITH/KELM/KBGM. AT KITH/KBGM, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z. LATER THIS EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SKC THROUGH END OF TAF TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING NW LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. .OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT...VFR. THURS-EARLY FRI...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. CHANCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. FRI/SAT...VFR. SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABS NEAR TERM...ABS SHORT TERM...ABS LONG TERM...BJT/RRM AVIATION...RRM

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