Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281440 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1040 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A POLAR AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND WEAK BANDS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE FINGER LAKES. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES INCREASE THE BANDS OFF THE FINGER LAKES WILL LOSE STRUCTURE AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM COASTAL. OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A HALF INCH DOWNWIND OF THE FINGER LAKES AND AROUND ONE INCH IN TH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. 250 AM UPDATE... A DEEP POLAR AIR MASS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY, CAUGHT WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROF. ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-15C TO -17C AT 925MB) WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY TODAY, THOUGH MODELS REALISTICALLY SHOW THIS AIR MASS MODERATING TODAY AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. STILL, THE POLAR AIR WILL USHER IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH MAXES ONLY REACHING THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION. THE "WARM AIR"...MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 30...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST, WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW BRINGING MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO NY/PA. MAXES/MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY, CAUSING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER OUR REGION. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 2 AM UPDATE... MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS DIVERING. BIG CHANGES THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. EURO BRINGS THE NEXT SYSTEM IN SLOWER SO THURSDAY LOWERED POPS AND UPPED TEMPS. WHILE THE GFS SHOOTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THU NGT THE EURO BRINGS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAIN FOR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. AGAIN UPPED POPS AND TEMPS. USED 00Z WPC EXTENDED GUIDANCE BUT HAD TO LEAN TOWARD OLDER GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST RELAXES SOMEWHAT FOR THE LONG RANGE BRINGING GENERALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES BEFORE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A LITTLE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE NORTH. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN THIS WARM UP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EITHER LATE NEXT WEEK OR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 7 AM SAT UPDATE... MVFR CIGS WITH NW TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE NOW ONLY ELM AND AVP. REST ALREADY BECAME VFR BUT ITH AND BGM COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. TONIGHT SKIES BECOME SCATTERED. N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY THEN DIMINISHING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. SUN NIGHT TO TUES NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/TAC AVIATION...TAC

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