Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 250737 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 337 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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330 AM EDT UPDATE... SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE UPPR 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT COLD AND RAINY WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MAIN AND IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPR LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND MOISTURE IS MOVING ALONG THE OUTER RIM OF THIS FEATURE... PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BARELY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY SO WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY... JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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330 AM EDT UPDATE... THE MENTIONED STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL START TO RETROGRADE AND THE FORCE THE WEATHER TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE UPPR LVL LOW TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THRU THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DECREASE THERE AFTER. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE 30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS. HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST. GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL 06Z SUN). W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN. .OUTLOOK... SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MLJ/RRM

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