Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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556 FXUS61 KBGM 230029 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 829 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and mainly clear skies through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther off the east coast. Mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights are forecast with valley fog both tonight and Saturday night across the river basins. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Little change to the forecast. Very quiet weather continues Sunday and Monday with the only concern being very warm temperatures and the potential for valley fog in the late night/ early morning. Large dome of high pressure and an anomalously warm air mass...850mb temps around +20 deg C, roughly 2-3 standard deviations above normal...will be situated over the region Sunday and Monday, which will produce mostly clear skies and high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations touching 90 is not of the question. Clear skies at night and strong raditional cooling at the surface will once again create favorable conditions for valley fog. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong upper level ridge with unseasonable warmth along with dry conditions persists through Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs will once again be in the 80s. By next Wednesday, the ridge will begin to break down as a cold front approaches from the north and west. Also, Maria will be moving north and likely somewhere off the Carolina coast around this time but will likely stay far enough east not to have a major impact on our weather. The cold front will bring a chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Beyond this time, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels as the ridge is replaced by an upper level trough. While no major systems are foreseen at this time for late next week, we keep low chances for showers in the forecast due to upper trough. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Valley fog will form once again overnight. At KELM/KITH, conditions will deteriorate to near airport minimums between 06Z-09Z then remain near airport minimums until 14Z- 15Z. At KSYR/KAVP/KBGM, MVFR conditions will be possible between 08Z- 14Z. Restrictions are not forecast at KRME. Outside of the fog, VFR conditions are expected with just SCT/BKN cirrus. Light and variable winds tonight will become westerly around 6 knots on Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible each late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other terminals as well at times. Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...MSE/RRM

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