Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 232337 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 737 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast through Monday, keeping our weather rain-free during this time frame. Monday will be pleasantly mild, with high in the sixties to near seventy. Later Monday night and Tuesday, light rain will likely move into the region, as a weak storm center, tracks up the eastern seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 3 pm update... Another quiet night under clear-partly cloudy skies, with a veil of high thin clouds across NEPA and NY`s southern tier. Although the air mass has become fairly dry, there may be a brief window of opportunity for valley fog right towards sunrise, given decent radiational cooling potential. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 315 pm update... Monday now looks rain-free, as the models have slowed the arrival of the next system from previous runs. Clouds should thicken up during the afternoon, though, especially across NEPA and the Catskills. Afternoon highs will range in the 60s, with some of our Lake Ontario plain and central southern tier zones perhaps reaching 70, as sunshine prevails longer in these areas. Monday night-Tuesday, a southern branch short-wave and associated surface low will rotate towards the northeast and move up along the eastern seaboard. Although the best chance of rain will be late Monday night and Tuesday morning, along and east of the I-81 corridor, most of our forecast area will see at least some rainfall this period. Given the clouds and precipitation, Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the 50s- near 60. Tuesday night, as the coastal system weakens and drifts further out to sea, rain will gradually taper off from west-east. Readings will be fairly mild, as they hold up in the upper 40s- lower 50s during the night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main concerns in the long term are focused around some lingering light rain showers Wednesday afternoon to the east, then much warmer temperatures expected Thursday, with showers and storms late Thursday and Thur night. The pattern still remains quite uncertain Friday into the weekend with a front stalling out and becoming draped across the forecast area, and a warm/humid air mass gradually moving in from the south. Weakening low off the coast will continue to lift to the ne during the day Wednesday with rain showers on the back side of the system tapering off west to east through central NY and ne PA. A narrow and amplifying ridge of high pressure will build in behind the system and allow strong large scale subsidence to dominate the region Wednesday night and most of Thursday. The ridge will usher in a much warmer air mass with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, close to 80 Thur afternoon. Boundary layer moisture will also increase, with sfc dwpts into the upper 50s and lower 60s, which will allow the instability to rise ahead of an incoming front. This next front will slide in from the west later in the day Thursday and Thur night, and interact with the unstable air mass to produce showers and thunderstorms. This cold front will not have a whole lot of punch with it as the parent low pressure will remain well to the north and move quickly into Quebec. The front will wash out later in the day Friday, but still be capable of tapping into lingering instability to trigger a few showers and storms. A much stronger push of warm/moist air will be felt into the weekend as the broad upper ridge over the sern US expands and lifts to the north. The lingering boundary will lift slightly to the north and remain capable of tapping into the unstable air...with continued chances of showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR/unrestricted conditions can generally be expected throughout the valid TAF period. Under high pressure, surface winds will average 5 kt or less. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible, as showers move across at least portions of the region. Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR, other than a brief restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP. Thursday through Friday...Restrictions again possible, with at least scattered showers anticipated, along with a chance of thunder. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...DGM/MLJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.