Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBGM 281928 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW. HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 PM UPDATE... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE, AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING. WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE 1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 (MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60% CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT KITH, OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATE TONIGHT, INCLUDED AT KELM CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS BETWEEN 08Z-13Z. ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA- TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.