Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 212321 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 621 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Our brief warm spell has come to an end, with the passage of a strong cold front. Winter returns on Thursday, with a period of snow, or a wintry mix expected. Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 425 PM update... Cold front is sweeping through the area this afternoon and will move through the entire forecast area by early evening. There are some scattered showers along this front, but only about a tenth of an inch of rain or even less is expected. Out ahead of the front, temperatures soared to near all time record high levels for February...with many locations reaching the mid-60s to lower 70s earlier today. Currently temperatures still remain in the mid to upper 70s in the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA. Behind the frontal boundary temperatures have fallen very quickly (20-30 degrees in just a few hours!) back into the 40s. This trend will continue early this evening across NE PA. The showers will be semi-convective in the remaining warm sector, and there is still an outside chance for rumble over thunder before 5 PM over far southern Luzerne County. Flood Watch continues for Oneida County. Recent rainfall plus melting snow has resulted in elevated/rising water levels for many of our waterways in Central NY; a few are in caution stage. However, actual flood potential for now is limited to Oneida County due to a snowpack still existing in the north that is melting/running off into streams, and prospects for ice jams that could cause short-notice problems including Fish Creek between Taberg and Sylvan Beach. A very complex weather scenario is shaping up across the region for late tonight and Thursday. A well defined shortwave is evident on the latest GOES East WV/IR imagery over the AR-LA-TX region. This will be the system that impacts our area on Thursday. Model trends today have been to bring higher precipitation amounts to our region for this period. Models have also trended slightly further north with the steady precipitation shield for Thursday. Overall confidence has increased in an accumulating snow and/or ice event for much of the area. A wintry mix of snow/sleet & frz rain will move into the area from SW to NE during the early morning hours on Thursday. Precipitation will change to mainly snow from the NY Southern Tier north by mid- morning Thursday. The snow will continue, potentially heavy at times late Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. Snow could fall at rates close to 1 inch per hour in a band from Bradford County PA Northeast to Otsego County. This area will be under intense vertical motion, which is also lining up nicely the snow growth region in model soundings. Although the snow growth region is forecast to be fairly elevated...between about 450-550mb. Temperatures should hold nearly steady through the day Thursday between 29-35 over Central NY...and 31-37 over NE PA. The snow/wintry mix should taper off and generally end during the early evening hours. QPF amounts look to range from 0.40-0.60 inches south of a Penn Yan--Cortland--Norwich--Cooperstown line. With a tenth to a quarter inch north to the NY Thruway. North of the Thruway less than a tenth of an inch of precip is expected. Much of this will fall as snow/sleet across the far Northern Tier of PA, the Southern Tier of NY and Central NY. For the rest of NE PA and Sullivan County NY it will be a messy mixture of some snow, sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. There will be a very sharp gradient in snowfall amounts both on the north side of this system (due to dry air entrainment from an expansive Canadian high pressure system) and south side (due to mixing). Latest snowfall forecast calls for a swath of 3-5 inches of snow/sleet approximately south of US 20 in Central NY, and also in Bradford County PA. 1 to 3 inches between US-20 and the NY Thruway...with less than 1 inch north of the NY Thruway. We are also expecting mainly 1 inch or less of sleet/snow and coatings of ice for the rest of NE PA and Sullivan County NY. In the lower Wyoming Valley, including Wilkes-Barre, Pittston and Scranton the precipitation could stay mainly plain rain through the event. With the above snow and ice amounts in mind, went ahead and issued a winter weather advisory for the central portion of the forecast area from 4 AM Thursday until 6 PM Thursday. Please see ALBWSWBGM product for more specific details. Late Thursday evening into Thursday night conditions are looking generally dry...although cannot rule out a chance for some light/spotty wintry mix precip to move through from time to time. Precip type should mainly be drizzle, frz drizzle or very light ice pellets. Precipitation amounts should be less than five-hundredths of an inch during this time. However, roads and other untreated surface could remain slick as temperatures fall back into the mid-20s to lower 30s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 215 pm update... The models are coming into better agreement, in bringing the next shot of steadier precipitation across CNY/NEPA during the day Friday, into Friday night. With the cold surface high moving off the New England coast, the cold dome in the boundary layer should erode with time, although as usual, the cold air will be hardest to dislodge across our eastern zones. So, precipitation type-wise, we expect mostly a rain/freezing rain scenario, with freezing rain most prevalent east of the I-81 corridor during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Friday. By later Friday night, as the main short-wave exits to our east, steadier precipitation should at least temporarily abate. By late Friday, highs should range from the low-mid 30s in our eastern zones, to the lower 40s over the Finger Lakes region. Readings will likely not fall a great deal Friday night, generally staying near or above the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 255 PM update... An anomalously warm and active pattern is forecast through the long term period. After a trough departs early Saturday morning, a warm front tracking out of the Central U.S. will spread showers toward NY and PA as the day progresses. Rains associated with this storm system will arrive in earnest Saturday night into Sunday, leading to a mild but wet weekend. High pressure will build in for Monday with clearing skies. A fast moving storm moving across Lake Ontario will bring another chance for rain or snow showers to our western counties on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clouds have lowered into MVFR territory as rain showers and colder air stream into NY and PA. Ceilings may rise a bit overnight as the cold front slides east, but then another storm system will spread mixed precipitation and snow into the terminals Thursday morning through afternoon. Visibilities will fall to between 1SM and 4SM in mixed precipitation on Thursday, while ceilings drop to between 500 and 1500 feet. Outlook... Thursday night...Restrictions continue, with lower ceilings, and perhaps a spotty light wintry mix. Friday through Sunday...Restrictions continue, with steadier rain (or perhaps freezing rain for a time Friday) most likely to occur Friday afternoon/evening, then again later Saturday into early Sunday. Monday...Improvement back to VFR possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-043. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for NYZ015-022>025-044>046-055>057-062. Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DJP

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