Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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705 FXUS61 KBGM 250537 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 137 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend with a stalled frontal boundary draped over central New York. This boundary will bring rain from time to time, mainly in Central New York overnight and then at least a chance of it areawide through the weekend. Some freezing rain is possible at times as cold air occasionally drops into the Catskills and Mohawk Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8 PM Update... Amazing gradient in temperatures across PA and NY. Western PA/far western NY actually got into the 70s, with 50s-some 60s reaching into the Central Twin Tiers. Meanwhile, 40s and even 30s can be found generally east of I-81. Monticello is only 34 degrees. Avoca and Hazleton are in the upper 40s. Just south of the sagging front, high res models and now some operational ones are suggesting semi-convective shower development into western NY this evening, which will then carry across much of Central NY tonight. Showalter indices get to about zero, and there is just a hint of instability aloft. I have tweaked forecast accordingly for placement of these showers for a time overnight. Otherwise not much change in general expectations in forecast of front slipping southward overnight into Saturday morning, with areas of light rain and patchy fog along and behind. Temperatures in Northern Oneida County may get around 32 degrees late tonight. Lingering light rain and/or drizzle at that time could possibly result in a touch of ice. For now we will continue to monitor for this potential. Previous discussion... The front has lifted well north of the area this afternoon taking the precipitation with it, and even bring some clearing. High pressure building over eastern Canada will push the front southward again overnight and weakening as much drier air pours in from the northeast. This will bring more showers to the area tonight into Sunday as the front backdoors the forecast area. The colder and drier air will also bring a return to a threat of freezing rain over the northern and eastern zones Saturday night into Sunday morning. At times there will significant temperature differences over the forecast area as parts of central Pennsylvania and western New York approach the 60s, and eastern New York hangs around 40. This will result in non diurnal temperature swings and difficult temperature forecasts. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... 240 PM update... A southward shift in the frontal boundary will allow cold air to bleed down from Northern New York and New England Sunday morning. Sub-freezing temperatures at the surface will lead to patchy freezing rain over our northeastern counties early Sunday morning, before the front surges northward and pushes temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Most of the forecast area will remain very mild Sunday night, though forecast temperatures in the lower to middle-30s over the far northeastern counties will once again increase the risk for mixed precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 240 PM update... A high energy, unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period. Multiple waves will rotate from the Pacific Northwest across the US and into the northeastern U.S. through the middle part of next week. A continuation of the showery weather pattern is forecast, with temperatures above normal for late March. Portions of our forecast area will approach 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday, especially west of I-81 and up the lake plain. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front will slowly sink southward through the day and cause IFR ceilings and patchy fog across the region. Light rain and drizzle will be possible through most of the period as copious amounts of low lvl moisture will be present. Winds will be light and variable through the forecast period. A strong low-lvl jet will continue to be present this morning across the region, thus LLWS will be present at KELM, KBGM and KAVP through 14Z. Poor flight conditions are expected to remain for the next 24 hours. OUTLOOK... Saturday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely from waves of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area. Freezing rain also briefly possible late Saturday night KSYR-KRME. Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...KAH

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