Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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107 FXUS61 KBGM 231741 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 141 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... This afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become widespread as a front passes through the area. Locally heavy rain is possible through this evening. The steadier showers will end late tonight. The rest of the weekend will be seasonable with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1045 AM update...Local radars show only isolated coverage across the forecast area. Late this morning through the afternoon coverage will increase as a mid level short moves through the area and the surface cold front currently over southern Ontario drops south. Any convection this afternoon and evening will be accompanied by very heavy downpours as airmass over the region is very juicy with PWATs near 2.0 inches. The chance for severe convection looks marginal at best as significant CAPE looks unlikely with extensive cloud cover. 7 am update... Dropped pops early since rain is just in far northern Oneida County. Comes into the west and south late morning. 3 AM Update... little in the way of precipitation now. Only some sprinkles in Oneida County. This will be the case the rest of the early morning. Thunderstorms over Lake Ontario will stay north of the CWA. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 60s and lower 70s with light winds and mid and high clouds. Adjusted temperatures down slightly. Today into Saturday will feature a widespread rain event. A deep southwest flow is pumping very warm moist air into the region ahead of a tropical depression and a cold front. The cold front has slowed enough that the heavy rain with the depression probably will get into northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. Fortunately this area of rain tonight is moving so general rainfall amounts will be 1 to 2 inches there. Further north amounts will be mostly under an inch. The problem will come with thunderstorms and localized heavy rain. Thunderstorms and showers will move in late morning and become more widespread in the afternoon. This evening will be more of a continuous rain with embedded convection. precipitable water around 2 inches with surface dewpoints 65 to 70. SPC has included the area in a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. With the saturated tropical airmass will be hard to get large hail to the ground since the -20c level is over 25k feet. Marginal instability (500 to 1000 cape) and shear (30 to 40 kts). Good forcing with a short wave associated with the depression moving east northeast into the area late today. Depression hits the NJ coast late tonight pulling the cold front out of the area. Saturday Precip chances drop to chance but still some forcing with short waves aloft and a secondary cold front combined with northwest cold air advection. Less humid air but sunshine will let temperatures get back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Main concerns in the short term remain centered around a cooler and drier pattern shift late this weekend and into early next week. A long wave trough will move slowly across the ern Great Lakes Saturday night through Monday and act as the main forcing mechanism to produce a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Weather conditions Saturday night and early Sunday morning should be quiet with a dry air mass in place and a weak surface high situated over the Northeast. The upper trough axis will rotate through the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday with a series of embedded short waves interacting with weak to modest deep moisture to trigger showers and isolated storms Sunday afternoon/evening, mainly over the Finger Lakes and Mohawk valley area. Instability is expected to subside Sunday night and allow for only a few lingering rain showers into Monday morning. The trough amplifies a bit on Monday and allows the precipitation to spread more to the south and east. Another embedded s/w will rotate around the bottom of the upper trough on Monday and once again interact with diurnal instability to produce another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Surface temps and dew points will be fairly mild, so instability will likely be limited with ML CAPE values 500 J/kg or less. Deep layer shear is expected to be weak as well. So, typical air mass thunderstorms are a strong likelihood. PWATs should be less than 1 inch...which will inhibit the potential for heavy rain as well. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be mild with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper trough will continue to rotate ewd Monday night through Tuesday with lingering showers and storms. Best chance of precip remains confined to the afternoon and evening time frame. Upper level ridging begins to develop Tuesday night and really sets up over the area Wed and Thur with a large surface high building into the mid Atlantic region. Mid level warm air advection on the back side of the upper ridge develops during this time and allows temperatures to warm back to near normal for this time of year. This pattern will likely keep weather conditions quiet through the middle of the week. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s by Wednesday...and into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. Will see a gradual increase in low level moisture too, with sfc dew points going from the lower 50s Tuesday, to the upper 50s close to 60 by Thurs. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front interacting with a very moist atmosphere will bring widespread showers to the region through this evening. Thunderstorms are also possible but not included in TAF due to low probability of occurrence. In general the flight category will lower into the MVFR/Alternate required category during the late afternoon and early evening hours. After FROPA widespread IFR ceilings are expected with a quick improvement to VFR Saturday morning shortly after sunrise. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots shifting to the northwest overnight then increasing Saturday morning to around 12 knots. Outlook... Saturday night...VFR. Sunday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief restriction possible. Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...RRM

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