Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBGM 200816
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
A quick shot of rain is expected today. Then, steadier and
heavier rain will occur tonight into Friday night, along and just
behind a slow moving cold front. Much chillier, unsettled weather
is expected this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 am update...
Clouds and showers moving in this morning. This ahead of a surface
low moving northeast on the east side of a deep upper level
trough. A surface frontal boundary lined up with the steering flow
will move slowly east this period. A north to south area of
showers now in western PA will move east through the CWA today.
Low level instability will be lacking. Winds speeds and shear
good. Weak mid level instability could cause a thunderstorm or
two. Rainfall amounts today mostly less than an inch. Isolated
locations could get more. Not anticipating problems during the
day. Without an all day rain today, temperatures will rise into
the low and mid 60s. Some sun possible except in the far north.
Steady rain will move in this evening and last into Friday night.
Most of the rain will train northeast from Steuben to Onondaga
Counties in NY. Here rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches. The
Poconos and southern Catskills will not see much rain until
Friday. Amounts here mostly just under an inch. Given the dry
antecedent conditions not expecting widespread flooding. Isolated
flash flooding possible mainly in urban areas in NY late tonight
to Friday. With the slow movement of the frontal boundary training
is likely and will be watched closely. Rivers and larger streams
should rise several feet but flooding is not expected.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night, a negatively tilted upper level trof will slowly move
through the area as an elongated surface low from eastern New York
to New Jersey merges with a coastal low. This surface feature will
then lift northeast into northern New England by 12Z Saturday.
Steady precipitation will gradually end over western and southern
portions of the forecast area but continue over New York from I81
east due to wrap around moisture, some frontogenetic forcing and
lake enhancement as T85 drops to around -3C.
Saturday...Surface low pressure moves through northern New England
and into eastern Quebec giving the area a cold northwest flow. With
T85 hovering around -4C lake enhanced rain showers will be mixed
with wet snow over the higher elevations of the western Catskills
and tuff hill plateau during the morning. Will continue with likely
pops from the Syracuse area east to the western Catskills and chance
elsewhere. Some of the higher elevations in the above mentioned
areas could see a light coating of wet snow. Maximum temperatures
will range in the lower to middle 40s.
Saturday night...Vertically stacked system continues slowly moving
into eastern Canada. A cold westerly flow with T85 around -3C will
keep the chance for mixed rain and snow showers over the
northern/eastern forecast area. Rest of region will be dry. A light
dusting of snow is possible over the higher terrain of northern
Oneida county and the western Catskills. Overnight lows will range
in the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended period looks unsettled initially then rather quiet with
another system late in the period. Sunday will be mainly dry for the
region except for lingering lake effect rain/snow showers primarily
Sunday morning under westerly flow. Sunday night and Monday a weak
upper level disturbance will move through the region bringing the
chance for rain showers which could mix with some wet snow in the
higher elevations of the western Catskills early Monday morning.
Monday night through Wednesday looks primarily dry with surface high
pressure in the vicinity. Next chance for rain showers will be on
Thursday when a system moves toward us from the mid west.
Temperatures through the period will run around five degrees below
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 am update...
VFR continues early this morning. Conditions quickly deteriorate
when the showers move in 12 to 15z. Cigs/vsbys fall to at least
MVFR and maybe IFR. Some heavy rain could drop vsbys to IFR.
Slight improvement late afternoon ELM/AVP where the showers end.
Tonight conditions drop back to MVFR and IFR conditions, with
steady rain starting. Cold front approaches tonight. Definite fuel
alternate MVFR tonight at least. BGM has the best chance of
falling to IFR cigs late morning then staying there through 06z.
East winds at 5 kts early this morning. Shift to southeast and
south during the day and increasing to 5 to 10 kts.
Thursday overnight-Friday night...MVFR/IFR. Widespread
restrictions in rain and low ceilings.
Saturday-Sunday...Scattered showers and intermittent
restrictions, especially Central NY terminals.
Monday...Improving to VFR.