Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 261830 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 230 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days. Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, are possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A few very isltd shwrs have dvlps this aftn, but far less than indicated by the shrt term meso models. Part of the reason is the lrg amt mid and hi lvl clds limiting the htg. Upr lvl rdgg conts to be quite strong as well. In any event, Wwll cont with chance pops this aftn into the eve, but keeps pops blo what models have indicated. Ovrngt, psblty of pcpn slowly drops as we lose htg. Some lgt fog psbl but with limited cvrg, have not included in the grids attm.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Rdgg locked in place over the fcst area thru the shrt term. Models cont to insist that conv will flair in the aftns with htg, and there is plenty of energy avbl, esp on the NAM. Hwvr, air remains rather dry, and with mid lvl wrmg, any conv shd be very isltd, and more likely north and west of the fcst area. Earlier in the week, GFS,ECMWF showed a backdoor cold fnt driving wwrd across the fcst area. This feature has weakend in time as the rdg has and will remain locked in place. Ely flow will remain much clsr to the cst. Otr feature is the dvlpg ptnl tropical system off the se cst. This ptnl low is very slow mvg and shd remain well south of the area thru the shrt term at least.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 pm Wednesday update... Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through late morning all terminals. An area of showers and thunderstorms will develop between noon and 4 PM, mainly NY terminals. Confidence medium to high in timing and enough coverage to warrent a tempo group of MVFR vsbys during that time, NY terminals. Brief IFR Vsbys possible and if confidence continues to grow, a small window of -TSRA may be added to the TAFS. By early evening remnants of showers and storms will dissipate with a return to VFR. Light and variable through mid morning becoming S/SW by this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain showers could reduce conditions. Starting Friday visibilities could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...Heden

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