-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 060549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A
VERY COLD MORNING DAWN WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS FALLING FAST THIS MORNING WITH ITH ALREADY REPORTING A VALUE
OF -2 DEGREES. LITTLE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
IS CAUSING LGT SNOW AT ONEONTA PER LATEST OB. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES LATER ON. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

1030 PM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AND
DEFINITELY CLOUDS STILL IN THE CATSKILLS THAT CAME IN FROM ALBANY.
OTHER THAN THAT CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE SINGLE DIGITS.

330 PM UPDATE...
UPPED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF STILL
EARLY THIS EVE. TEMPS AND DEWPTS ALSO RAISED A LITTLE.

130 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF IS SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST, HWVR WV THAT CONTS TO MV
THRU HAS DVLPD LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES AIDED BY MOISTURE FM
FINGER LKS.

1040MB SFC HIGH SITTING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WL SLOWLY BUILD
SOUTH OVRNGT WITH CLRNG APPCHG LK ONTARIO AS OF 18Z. EXPECT THIS
CLRNG LINE TO MV INTO THE CWA FM THE NORTH BY EARLY EVNG AND SLIP
SOUTH FM THERE. LOCATIONS SHUD BE MOCLR BY DAYBREAK LEADING TO GOOD
RADN`L COOLING.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ARE -2F FOR KBGM, 0F FOR KAVP
AND -10F FOR KSYR. WE MAY FLIRT WITH THESE LOW TEMPERATURES BY
MORNING, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
SHORT AT KBGM AND KAVP AND NOT EVEN CLOSE AT KSYR. HWVR, IF KBGM CAN
DROP BLO ZERO BY TONIGHT IT WL MAKE 14 DAYS OF BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS
SO FAR THIS WINTER AND WL ONLY TAKE ONE MORE DAY TO TIE THE ALL-TIME
RECORD OF 15 SET IN THE WINTER OF 1979.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST
EXPECTED TO BE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE LYR TO EEK INTO SERN ZONES BY
12Z FRIDAY. HIPRES WL SET UP SHOP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS
TIME WITH LOW-LVL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE MVG IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
BRINGING MOISTURE NWD. FOR NOW, WL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN AS IT DOES
SO, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ACRS POCONOS REGION IN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

THIS WL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHD OF A CDFNT DUE IN
SAT MRNG. AS WINDS TURN MORE SRLY DWPTS WL INCRS INTO THE 20S FOR
FRI AFTN WITH AFTN MAXES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST BLO NORMAL VALUES
IN THE U30S AND A 40 DEGREE TEMPS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY IN THE FINGER LKS.

FRONTAL BNDRY WL MV THRU DRG THE DAY SATURDAY BUT QUIETLY WASHES OUT
AS IT DOES SO. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT VRY LITTLE PCPN WL
ACCOMPANY THIS FNT THRU DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. EXPECT LGT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MRNG, GRADUALLY MIXING WITH RAIN BY AFTN AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID-UPR 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...

MID RANGE GUIDANCE LOOKS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WE CAN
THANK THE FLOW ALOFT, WITH PACIFIC ORIGINS, TO BOOST TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 30S. WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T SEE ANY TRUE ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND
BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS AIR RETREATS WILL MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 30S (CURRENT FORECAST) WHICH IS NEAR BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, AND SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL (40S). WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE WILL HAVE MANY "CHANCES" FOR
PRECIPITATION ALMOST EVERY 24 HOURS IN THE FAST FLOW. ONE WAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT, ETC.
WITH THIS FLOW HOWEVER WE WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ALL IN ALL A PRETTY QUIET
WEEKEND.

HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT THE BIG STORM FOR NEXT WEEK YET? WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE BOTH HERE THROUGH OUR FORECAST DISCUSSION
AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THAT LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS (DAY 5 AND
BEYOND) ARE NOT OFTEN VERY ACCURATE. SEE THIS PAST "STORM" AS AN
EXAMPLE FOR OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR FOR NEXT WEEK,
WON`T BE OVER LAND WHERE WE HAVE A BETTER OBSERVING NETWORK UNTIL
MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THAT SAID THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS POTENTIALLY STORMY.  BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN, WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THIS YEAR, ARE SHOWING A LARGE STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AND
FOR NOW WENT WITH 30% POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW, WITH A MIX IN NEPA.
THIS SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS NOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE LITTLE PATCH OF MVFR CIGS OUT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP THIS HR. FOR NOW
FAIRLY CERTAIN DECK WILL STAY AWAY FROM ANY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ASIDE FROM FROM HIGH CI FROM THE ITH TERMINAL SOUTH...EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. NEARLY
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 KTS IN MOST PLACES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

SAT-SUN-MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM WEAK DISTURBANCES AND SCT -SHSN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...CMG