Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 251747 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 147 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BKN CUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE CATSKILLS WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS IN NE PA. RADAR WAS JUST SHOWING A SHOWER OR TWO POPPING UP OVER STEUBEN COUNTY. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL REMAIN OR DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST OF C NY/NE PA. 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 10-11C BTWN 18Z AND 00Z W OF A RME TO TOW LINE IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENUF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILTY TO POP ISLD TO SCT SHRA IN THE CNTRL SRN TIER/FINGER LAKES TO SYR- UCA/RME BY LATE AFTERNOON. S AND E OF THESE LOCATIONS ONLY THE CATSKILLS WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA WITH UPSLOPING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SO KEPT CHC POPS FINGER LAKES...TO SLGHT CHC SYR/UCA/RME SE TO THE CATSKILLS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE LL FLOW UP THROUGH 850 MB REMAINS ARND 270 DEGREES WHICH KEEPS THE LAKE MOISTURE W AND N OF THE REGION. IN ADDTN...WEST WINDS GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SO HAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS WED AM WE WILL AGAIN SEE A GOOD NIGHT FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION AND HAVE IN GRIDS BTWN 06Z AND 14Z WED. CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH MINS IN THE VALLEYS DROPPING TO AOB 50F. FOR WEDNESDAY...SFC DEWPOINTS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 10C IN ALMOST ALL OF CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST. ADDNTLY THE COLD TROF AXIS AT 700 MB WILL BE OVERHEAD BTWN 18Z AND 00Z. AS A RESULT WE THINK THERE WILL BE MORE LL INSTABILITY AND SCT SHRA WED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THAN TODAY IN OUR AREA. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS ACRS ALMOST ALL OF C NY AND NE PA. ONLY OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL SEE LESS CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHC FOR PRECIP WED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY. FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS ALSO ONLY REACH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY IN PIKE- SULLIVAN COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL REMAIN PRONE TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS /DUE TO ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAKE TEMPERATURE VERSUS 850MB TEMPERATURE/. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FEED OF CANADIAN AIR OUT THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAVE THE AREA 5-9 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING YIELDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY BUT WARMING FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STILL MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CMC...EURO AND GFS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH FAIR SKIES. HGHTS RISES SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING ON FRIDAY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR FRI NGT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH TEMPERATURES GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ECLIPSING 80 IN MANY AREAS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY GFS AND CMC SHOW WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A CHC FOR SHRA. EURO ACTUALLY REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW HAVE CHC POPS AS PER MODEL SUPERBLEND. FOR MONDAY...WEAK TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP THE CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA IN FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL. LONG TERM FORECAST I USED THE SUPERBLEND AND COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1 PM UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WITH 6-10KT WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5K FT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT KBGM...KELM...AND KAVP...LESSER CHANCES OF THIS AT OTHER SITES WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG WILL EFFECT KELM WITH IFR CONDITIONS...SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY LIKELY AT KBGM INTO MVFR AND LESSER CHCS FOR KAVP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE THREE SITES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL CLU LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... TUE THROUGH SAT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DJN/TAC AVIATION...ABS

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