Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 192000 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 300 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure overhead tonight will shift to the northeast and make way for a weak warm front which will trigger a period of rain Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Mild temperatures under weak high pressure late Saturday into Sunday expected before a coastal low pressure system develops late Monday and Tuesday with widespread rain or snow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Main concerns in the near term are centered around the continued threat for drizzle this evening...areas of fog tonight and Friday morning...and the onset of rain showers, south to north later in the day Friday...continuing into Saturday morning. High pressure at the surface and a high amplitude upper level ridge axis across the region this afternoon has allowed for enough large scale suppression to trap the low level moisture in place, and keep the low clouds around longer than previously expected. There are a few locations...in the Catskills and the Allegheny Mtns where cloud cover is beginning to scatter out, but as the sun begins to set, cool nwly flow continues and the low level inversion collapses, the extent of the low clouds should persist into tonight. There is also the threat for fog tonight as a fairly moist near-sfc layer combines with a suppressive atmosphere, very light/calm winds and an inversion aloft. The ridge is expected to shift off to the ne Friday morning and allow a return s/swly flow to develop. This flow will usher in a slightly warmer air mass aloft...and may initially act to enhance the inversion and presence of low clouds and patchy fog. However as the deep layer forcing and moisture arrive ahead of an upper trough/sfc warm front...most of the low clouds and fog should begin to lift and mix out. Don`t expect any sunshine and dry weather though. This next system will swing northward with WAA and weak isentropic lift allowing a broad swath of rain to develop across PA Friday afternoon and push nwd through central NY Friday evening and night. The system will weaken through the overnight hours with much of the heaviest rain occurring Friday afternoon/evening in ne PA and into the srn tier of NY. At this time rainfall amts are expected to range from quarter inch along the NY/PA border south...to a tenth of an inch to the north. At this time it looks like the thermal profiles will remain warm enough for all rain. Temperatures will fall into the lower 30s tonight under the cloud cover...and into the upper 20s where skies are not as cloudy. Highs tomorrow will rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Will likely see not much fluctuation of temperatures into Friday night with lows only dropping into the mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fairly quiet weather through most of the short range period. Upper level ridging will be dominant over the area however there will be abundant low level moisture with stratus so not expecting much sunshine. Temperatures will be quiet mild for this time of year with highs in the 40s both days and lows Saturday night in the 30s. By Sunday afternoon, we do bring a chance of rain into NE PA as well as the southern tier as a coastal low begins to approach. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main story during this period will be large coastal low which still has a good chance of impacting the area with rain/snow. However still early to be confident in the forecast details..... The big change with the 12z model cycle is that the GFS has trended farther S/E with the coastal low allowing colder temperatures to filter into the area faster from the NE. This is in line with the trend we`ve also seen with the ECMWF and GEM Global models. That said, the system is still several days out with the energy that will initiate this system still over the Pacific so it is early to have high forecast confidence. That said, in the bigger picture, models in overall good agreement in tracking broad coastal low from the SE States late Sunday northeastward to around the Delmarva region by late Monday...bringing the storm`s precip shield into the forecast area from south to north Sunday night into Monday. At the same time, trend will be for colder air from the NE to filter into the region which will also be aided by the dynamic cooling from the system itself. This all said, temperatures will still be be very marginal so in terms of the gridded forecast, will forecast rain changing to mixed rain/snow Sunday night into Monday with mostly snow by Monday night. If colder trend continues, however, it is possible change to snow could occur earlier. Also still early to be confident in liquid precip amounts since CWA looks to be near the N/W edge of the storm`s heaviest precip. However, potential still exists for significant amounts. Best chance of seeing heaviest snow amounts looks to over the Poconos and the Catskills. Coastal system winds down to rain/snow showers by Tuesday as low moves east of New England. There will likely be a brief break before a weaker system brings a chance for rain/snow showers by later Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures generally remaining warmer than normal for this time of year with highs in the 30s and a narrow diurnal range in temps. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shallow moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion this afternoon...so IFR to MVFR ceilings continue. Expecting fuel alternate ceilings and temporary IFR conditions tonight. There may be patchy fog development tonight as well...with IFR to MVFR vsbys possible. Light west to northwest winds become variable to near calm tonight. OUTLOOK... Friday through early Saturday...Restrictions develop in rain Friday afternoon-night followed by lingering lower ceilings into early Saturday. Late Saturday through early Sunday...Mainly VFR. Late Sunday through Monday...Restrictions in rain, possibly mixed with snow at times. Tuesday...Visibility restrictions likely in snow and blowing snow. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...BJT/MDP

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