Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 081714 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1214 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain seasonably cold today and tonight, with generally dry weather other than a few snow flurries. Over the weekend a coastal low will spread light to moderate snow into the Poconos, Wyoming Valley and Western Catskills...meanwhile a clipper will bring scattered snow showers to much of the area by Sunday, with some lake enhancement in a cold northwesterly flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 920 am update... No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. Minor increase in pops across Onondaga and Oneida counties with a weakening band of light snow moving slowly n/newd. Still expecting a quiet weather day today and light accumulating snow across the Poconos and Catskills tomorrow. 12Z NAM is starting to come in and looks very similar to previous runs. NAM model QPF amounts look slightly less, but the placement is about the same. 345 AM Update Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cold. There will be a few snow showers/flurries around this morning over Central NY...these will lift north and out of the area prior to noon. West-Southwest winds will be slightly breezy today, between 8 to 18 mph. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid-30s this afternoon. The weather remains quiet tonight, with just some increasing clouds late over the south and east. Overnight lows will be chilly, in the teens to lower twenties. Winds turn out of the south, decreasing to less than 10 mph. On Saturday, we are closely watching a coastal low pressure system that will approach the forecast area from the south. To the north and west of this low, very dry air will exist in the lower levels of the atmosphere...this should create a very sharp cutoff to the snow shield on the northwest side of this system. The latest 00z and 06z guidance has shifted the track of the low, and associated precip area to the north and west. The furthest west model is now the 00z ECMWF, with the 00z NAM being furthest east. The 00z GFS seemed to be a good middle ground, and thus have leaned the forecast toward that solution. The 06z NAM is just coming in now, and seems to be very close to our official forecast and the 00z GFS. The official forecast is now indicating that a period of steady light snow will be likely along and southeast of a line from about Wilkes-Barre to Hancock NY and Delhi NY Saturday afternoon...with a chance of snow extending back to the I-88 corridor. We are now expecting 1 to 2.5 inches of snow in the Poconos and Western Catskills....with about an inch of snow in the Wyoming Valley. We will continue to monitor the latest model guidance trends in case these snow amounts need to be adjusted in future forecasts. For now, travelers in the above mentioned area should be prepared for winter driving conditions Saturday into Saturday evening. Will hold off on any winter weather advisories for now, as confidence in these types of amounts (greater than 3 inches in NE PA, 4 inches in the Western Catskills) is not quite high enough yet. Will let the dayshift evaluate the 12z guidance and trends. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to reach the lower to mid- 30s...but where snow is falling low dewpoints/wet bulb temperatures should keep surface temperatures below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 4 AM Update... Colder air with brief west-northwest flow early Sunday, will quickly revert back to a cool southwesterly flow later Sunday into Monday, ahead of the more dramatic Arctic plunge en route. Back edge of coastal system will pull out of the Poconos-Catskills Saturday evening, followed by a brief lull in activity before upper trough and inverted surface trough merge into the departing coastal low Sunday morning. This will bring some light snow to the area Sunday morning, which will be enhanced by Lake Ontario in the northern Finger Lakes through the NY Thruway corridor. Most of the region will have less than an inch of snow or even just passing flurries, but for the enhanced areas, an inch or two could fall. Northern Oneida county will probably end up closer to 2 to 4 inches through midday Sunday. However, flow will quickly back west-southwest Sunday afternoon, allowing snow showers to diminish. There will still be some Erie contribution however, keeping at least some flurries going across the Central Southern Tier-Finger Lakes-NY Thruway corridor. Sunday will be a rather cold day with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s, and gusts reaching at least 20-30 mph range. Another surface low will skim by southern Quebec Sunday night into northern New England Monday, which will drape a weak boundary into our area. It should be enough to keep scattered snow showers or flurries going, with Lake Ontario enhancement getting into areas north of the NY Thruway, and eventually Lake Erie enhancement reaching to Finger Lakes region Monday. After lows of upper teens-lower 20s Sunday night, highs of upper 20s- mid 30s are expected for Monday which indeed will be mild compared to what will be inbound for midweek. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 4 AM Update... High confidence in wintry very cold pattern for midweek. Forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend, with little change in overall thinking. Early highs of mid 20s-mid 30s Tuesday but with falling temperatures as Arctic blast descends across the area with snow, followed by our coldest day on Wednesday with only upper teens-mid 20s for highs. Though lows will be mainly teens Tuesday night and Wednesday night, a few spots could reach single digits. Previous discussion... An unsettled period with temperatures cooling to about 10 degrees below normal. This means highs below freezing at times. Another surface low drops through the Great Lakes Monday to Tuesday. Another widespread light snow likely. Monday night and Tuesday will be the bulk of the snow then more lake effect Wednesday. Temperatures bottom out Wednesday with highs in the low 20s and lows in the lower teens. For Thursday another surface low drops into the Great Lakes with more light snow. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected the rest of today and tonight with a slow increase in high (15-25K ft agl) clouds later tonight and Saturday morning. After 12Z Saturday, KAVP will likely see a lowering of clouds as a low pressure system develops and moves newd off the coast. Low-end VFR cigs at KAVP with IFR to MVFR vsbys in -SN. Ceilings should remain VFR at other NY terminals through 18Z Saturday. West/southwest winds through the day at 8-15 kts...with a few higher gusts possible at KBGM and KSYR into the early afternoon. Winds decrease and turn more southerly tonight...AOB 5 kts. Winds back to the s/se and increase to around 5 to 10 kt after 14Z. Outlook... Saturday...VFR...Except MVFR or IFR restrictions likely in periods of snow at KAVP through the afternoon. MVFR also possible in light snow at KBGM after 18z. Sunday through Tuesday...Unsettled pattern will bring snow showers/associated restrictions, especially NY terminals.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BJT/MJM

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