Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBGM 221042
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
642 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today as heat and humidity
increase across the region. Dry weather is forecast for the
remainder of the weekend along with above normal temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A difficult low confidence forecast is the theme for today. Models
continue to indicate the atmosphere will destabilize this
afternoon with NAM indicating CAPE values of 2-4k J/KG with the
GFS around 1500-3000 J/KG. These numbers are pretty impressive for
the local area although model surface dew points are forecast to
reach the lower to middle 70s which is unlikely. Mid level lapse
rates are more impressive than the events we have seen so far this
year. The lack of a real trigger is what is missing which makes
the pop forecast and timing a conundrum. The mid level wave
forecast to go through this afternoon is almost non-existent
compared to two days ago and the surface feature remains very
nebulous. The environmental winds and deep layer shear could
support the development of severe convection with damaging winds
the primary threat. SPC has put most of the region back into
slight risk but this appears overdone and the discussion indicates
low confidence. Will issue an HWO indicating a few storms could
become severe. Will increase pops into the low chance category
this morning and keep the chances going through early evening.
Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s
and with dew points rising into the mid 60s to around 70 it will
be rather uncomfortable.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...After the above mentioned convection diminishes during
the evening hours the remainder of the overnight period will be
Saturday...H5 short wave will drop through northern New york State
during the afternoon and possibly trigger thunderstorms across
northern Oneida county. Will continue with low chance pops here
and dry elsewhere. Maximum temperatures will range from the middle
80s to around 90.
Saturday night/Sunday...Upper level heights rise as a brief ridge
builds over the region. Surface high pressure will be in the
vicinity with abundant sunshine likely on Sunday along with high
temperatures once again in the middle 80s to around 90.
Sunday night...Next upper level wave approaches the region along
with a weak warm front. After midnight will advertise
chance/slight chance pops for thunderstorms across central New
York and northern Pennsylvania.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM EDT Update...
Monday appears to be our next best chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the region. A shortwave will propagate eastward
along the northern periphery of a potent upper level ridge Monday
afternoon. The attendant sfc low to the shortwave will lift
northward into northern Quebec and force a weak cold
front/boundary across the region. This boundary will be the focus
for convection. By Tuesday morning the flow aloft will become
zonal and a surface ridge will build back into the region through
Thursday afternoon. Thurs night another shortwave will propagate
along the outer edge of the upper lvl ridge and slide across the
region. This feature may generate showers and thunderstorms across
Temps during the forecast period will continue to be summer-like
with temps ranging in the 80s and 90s each day, with lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A chance for showers and thunderstorms will be present this
afternoon and evening at all taf sites except for KAVP as we will
be in an very unstable airmass with copious amounts of low level
moisture. For much of the forecast period expect VFR flight
conditions. During TSRA, brief restrictions may be possible.
Winds will pick up quickly after sunrise from the W/SW, around 10
to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots may be frequent today. Winds
will weaken near sunset, then become light and variable overnight.
Sat & Sun morning...VFR, except for potential for valley fog.
Mon & Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and
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