Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 260836 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 436 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE SRN TIER/NE PA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT REALLY INDICATING MUCH CHANCE FOR SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON AS BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. SPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR ALL OF NYS BUT CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT ARE AROUND 1.50 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WEDNESDAY...A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. MODEL CAPE IS GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THIS COMBINED WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGER ENV WINDS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SVR WX. CONTINUED HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (SMALL MBE VECTORS) INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC NE PA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN WED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. THURSDAY...COOLER LESS HUMID AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER NE PA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL STILL RESIDE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NYS AND LOWER 80S IN NE PA. THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING FOR COMFORTABLE SLEEPING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON POPS AND TEMPS. STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT- SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING HIGHER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT A MID LVL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER KRME AN KSYR. THIS AFTERNOON... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN TSRA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KITH... KELM... KBGM AND KAVP. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE MVFR VISBYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY THRU THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK... TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...JAB/KAH AVIATION...KAH

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