Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KBGM 281306 ESFBGM NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109- 123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-301315- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 906 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 9 /FINAL/... This is the last in a series of regularly scheduled hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring seasons. This outlook is designed to provide a generalized assessment of river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks. ...SUMMARY... The overall risk of flooding for the next two weeks is near average for this time of year. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS... .PRECIPITATION: Above normal. Precipitation since early February is averaging about 150 percent higher than normal for the season. .SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT: Normal. There is no snow. .RIVER ICE COVER: Normal. There is no river ice. .STREAMFLOW: Above normal. Streamflow averaged over the last 14-28 days was above the 75th percentile of all flows recorded throughout the history of each stream gauge. Rivers are therefore considered to be running high for the time of year, although they are slowly trending down toward baseflows. .SOILS: Per the Palmer Drought and the Crop Moisture index, the first several inches of topsoil was considered wet across most of the region. .RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...Above normal pools. Most all of the Finger Lakes were running above normal. The NYC Delaware Basin reservoirs were near total capacity. Lake Wallenpaupack was above the target level for April. ...FORECAST OUTLOOK... .FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for cooler than average temperatures with above normal precipitation. .LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The ensemble of river forecast systems indicates generally normal flow and only very low probabilities of flooding at a few headwater points for the next two weeks. A climatological analysis of flooding, using current hydrologic conditions compared to historical flows, suggests the chance for river flooding during the two week period is about average. ...IN CONCLUSION... This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which contribute to flooding. It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a period of time, is the most important factor in determining the severity of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are not included in this outlook. This is the final statement for the 2017 flood season. The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued during the first week in January 2018. $$ JAB

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