Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

000
FXUS65 KBOI 260247
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. WSR-88D RADAR AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT 8:45 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE FRONT
WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND WESTERN BAKER COUNTY.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS IN BAKER CITY AND IN BURNS OREGON BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY IN MCCALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE BOISE AND TWIN
FALLS AREA ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS NUMEROUS AS FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT NEAR KBKE AT 02Z WILL MOVE TO KBOI BY 07Z
AND KTWF BY 12Z. VALLEY MVFR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF
MTN OBSCURATION AND SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 6000 FT. MTN SHOWERS
CONT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z. SFC WINDS SW
20-30 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT...TURNING W-NW AND DECREASING BEHIND
FRONT. NW SFC WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFT 18Z TO 15-25 KTS IN
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL SW 40-50 KTS OVER OR
AND 35-35 KTS OVER ID...SHIFTING TO W AND DECREASING TO 20-30 KTS
AFT 06Z. &&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT IN SE OREGON...AND BY NOON IN
SW IDAHO. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS....WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM MDT...
5 PM PDT...FOR MALHEUR AND HARNEY COUNTIES IN SE OREGON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT THE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE NEAR
ROME OREGON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS TODAY. THE LARGEST CHANGE WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS OF 2 PM MDT. SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. MONDAY...THE ONLY REMAINING MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS.
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY WHERE A NEW WARM UP WILL BEGIN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO END ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
ENTERS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT...A RELATIVELY HIGH MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY...AND A RUN TO RUN TREND TOWARD LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS
ON SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER OUR
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY...LEAVING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A
SOUTHWEST FLOW 0F WARM AIR ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFFSHORE...PREPARING TO SWING
INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 15 DEGREES AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....TB
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/DD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.