Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 202046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SW THROUGH SE
AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN...INCREASE AND TURN WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SSW 25-35KTS AHEAD OF FRONT AND W AT 15-25 KTS BEHIND.
EXPECT RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KMYL. KMYL SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF TIMES OF IFR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP


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