Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 221536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
936 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry today as an upper level ridge continues
to shift east over the region. Maximum temperatures today will be
a few degrees above yesterday`s, accompanied by light winds.
Expecting Tuesday`s temperatures to be the warmest this week ahead
of a generally dry cold frontal passage Wednesday. Made a few
minor changes to the forecast for today, otherwise, forecast is
on track.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. NW winds up to 10kt up through 10KFT


SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...High pressure continues today,
with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will warm under the
influence of this system, with the warmest day of the week expected
on Tuesday. Winds will generally remain light, though a slight
increase will be possible across the Western Magic Valley this
afternoon and early evening.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Models still agree on
timing the pattern change. By Wednesday morning the upper level
trough will have moved inland over southern BC, with the associated
dry cold front pushing east across our CWA during the day. The main
impacts will be a 15 degree drop in high temperatures, and gusty
northwest winds. As the trough center drifts east over southern
Canada, a portion will hold back over the Intermountain Region, with
enough moisture and instability for scattered showers and isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over Baker County Oregon and the
central Idaho mountains starting Thursday. Further south over
southeast Oregon and southwest idaho only isolated showers are
expected. Due to model differences, it is uncertain whether showers
will continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal on
Wednesday, then 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday and Friday.
Saturday and Sunday a building upper level ridge will return
temperatures to a few degrees above normal.





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