Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 042029
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
229 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE OREGON COAST AS OF 2 PM MDT.
THIS LOW WILL SWING INTO ERN OREGON BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN LIFT
INTO NRN IDAHO BY 00Z SUNDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...ALL
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS IS AN INDICATION OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
COMBINED WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION...THAT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY TO THE SRN HALF OF OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ARRIVE AT ONTARIO BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...BOISE BETWEEN 8
AND 9 PM...MOUNTAIN HOME BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM...AND THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED BRIEF GUSTS
30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY GUSTS WILL BE 20-30
MPH.

MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN OREGON AS OF
00Z...AND AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER THIS RAINFALL COULD LAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SAT MORNING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TWO BURN SCARS IN ERN OREGON...THE ELDORADO
AND THE COMBINED CORNET/WINDY RIDGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO CAUSE PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF THE BURN SCARS. HOWEVER...
WITHIN THE SCARS...MUDSLIDES/LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AND THESE CAN
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. PLEASE BE AWARE IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING
ON U.S. HIGHWAY 26 THROUGH OR NEAR THE ELDORADO PASS...OR ON STATE
HIGHWAY 245 SOUTH OF BAKER CITY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS
SIGNIFICANTLY EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND BOISE MTNS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS GONE.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS SATURDAY. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...AND WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BAKER CITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE
50S TOMORROW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...WE WILL SEE A 5 TO 10
DEGREE WARMUP FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
COOL WITH MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE EVEN COOLER SUNDAY
MORNING...LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND WE
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GOING
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED. SURFACE
WINDS WESTERLY 5-15KT. A STRONG GRADIENT AND FRONTAL FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z/SAT TO 06Z/SAT
WITH W-NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT BECOMING NW 25-35KT IN SE OREGON BY 21Z/SAT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOW VFR AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXITING TO THE EAST. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA


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