Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 222211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
311 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Showers will taper off
this evening over the eastern sections as the upper low slowly
tracks into central Idaho. A deepening surface low over UT will
keep gusty northwest winds blowing across open terrain through the
night. This will keep many spots mixed through the night which
would limit cooling. Sheltered locations with recent snowfall will
be the colder spots and have trended the forecast colder in these
locations. Friday is dry, cold and breezy under a passing ridge.
Widespread light snow develops over the area on Saturday as
another low drops into the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation will
again be all snow to the lowest valley floors with this system.
Light to moderate snow amounts are expected in the mountains and
some valley areas through Saturday afternoon. Temperature are
around 10 degrees below normal through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...The active weather
pattern will continue. We can expect snow showers over the
mountains  through the period. The next upper level trough will
bring precipitation to all areas Sunday night and Monday. Models
agree that most of the energy with this system will head south
over southern California and Arizona, so snowfall in the lower
valleys of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho is expected to be
light. Scattered snow showers will continue over the mountains on
Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies in the valleys. Overnight lows
will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Tuesday evening through Friday morning. Leading off with sunnier
skies associated with ridging, northwest flow and slightly driers
conditions. This to quickly transition into cloudy, westerly flow,
and wetter conditions as a major storm system begins to move into
the CWA by Thursday. Expect this system to linger as it develops
and spins off smaller ripples of more intense/heavier weather.
Winds should be gustier around the showery weather. A good chance
for widespread snowfall across the CWA, heavier in the northern
regions. High temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal and
low temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR in southeast Oregon and the Snake River
Valley west of area KTWF/KJER. Periods of MVFR conditions in snow
at  KTWF and KJER, improving to VFR by 23/00Z. MVFR/IFR
conditions in snow in the central Idaho mountains, including KMYL,
until about 23/03z, becoming mainly VFR. Surface winds west to
northwest 10-20 kts. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL northwest 10-20 kts,
becoming north 15- 25 kts by 23/12z.





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