Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 302121 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS REMAINED CAPPED SO FAR. DEW POINTS IN MOUNTAIN STATIONS HAVE DROPPED WAY OFF...SO SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE. ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTHWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...CAUSING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SLOW MOVING. MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS CAPPED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO VALUES THAT WERE RECORDED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL DETERMINE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED. FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE DOMINATE OVER THE REGION EXTENDING NW WELL INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A 700 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WILL HELP WITH KEEPING AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT REGULATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HINDER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NW WITH THE MOISTURE AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY SOUTH OF I-70. THE EC AND GFS DIFFER ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER NE COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE LATER MODELS DO WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE BEFORE RAISING POPS ON THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS PROJECTING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE PLAINS BUT LIKE FOR MONDAY WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW LATER MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 A MATURE DENVER CYCLONE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE LINE WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IS LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE CONVECTION MAY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO KDEN AND KAPA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAS DRIED OUT AND SHOULD REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL TURN BACK TO DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY... MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER. MODEL QPF FIELDS KEEP ALL THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. KBJC WOULD BE THE AIRPORT MOST LIKELLY TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DANKERS LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...DANKERS

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