Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 180300 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 900 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014 THERE IS A BIT OF LEE WAVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE TO CHANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST FLOW STILL OVER REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT GUSTY FAR EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO FORM IN A CONVERGENCE AREA SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG WESTERN COLORADO BORDER. WINDS TO DECREASE ACROSS PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER COLORADO WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP WITH WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER BALMY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW PACK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 50S. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND SOUTH PARK. THE STABILITY LOOKS LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014 FRIDAY EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT ALL ABOVE 600 MB AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR IN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE BUT SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...TO MOST AREAS. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT LONGER DAYS AND STRONGER HEATING DOES SUPPORT A LOW THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD DRY ENOUGH BY TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. A FEW SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD REACH 80F FOR HIGHS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL GREENUP OF GRASSES THROUGH THAT TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH...BUT THEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014 DRAINAGE WINDS ARE ALREADY GOING. THEY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE NORM DUE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJK SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH AVIATION...RJK

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