Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS65 KBOU 011746 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1046 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 THERE IS STILL A BATCH AND BANDS OF REAL LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND EAST CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ELBERT NORTHERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. AGAIN IT IS VERY LIGHT AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH EVERYWHERE IT IS SNOWING. ALL THE PLAINS AND LOWER FOOTHILLS HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW AT THIS TIME. PLAINS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 SNOW HAS DECREASED IN ALMOST ALL OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA SO HAVE CANCELLED IT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 415 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 WOW. ALL INGREDIENTS CAME TOGETHER FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT LAST NIGHT IN THE DENVER METRO AREA. THOSE WOULD BE CONVECTION...JET MAX...UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND FRONT TO FOCUS CONVECTION... UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. THE JET MAX ENDED UP TO OUR WEST VERSUS OVER OR JUST EAST OF US THUS PROLONGING THE EVENT AS WELL. MEANWHILE FORT COLLINS AND LOVELAND SAW LITTLE IF ANY SNOW. THERE ARE STILL A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AROUND THIS MORNING IN THE DENVER AREA TO PALMER DIVIDE...AND GIVEN HIGH IMPACT OF LAST WET SNOW ON ROADS WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A FEW HOURS TIL 9 AM. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS AFTER 12Z IN DENVER WHILE THE PALMER COULD STILL PICK UP 1-2 INCHES IN A FEW BANDS. HOWEVER...JET AXIS IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST SO THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW. THERE ARE ALREADY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE REST OF THE PLAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND THESE WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY. CANT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED AT MOST AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY. FOR TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MORE INTO MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS UP THERE BUT NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR HIGH WINDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THIS WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE STRUGGLES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT LEAVE THE PLAINS DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A JET STREAM MAX MOVES OVER WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF COLORADO. MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILL AREAS WOULD BE THE WINDIEST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THIS JET STREAM DEVELOPS BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT AS THE LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS FOR SOME 48 HOURS...APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS CHANGE FOR THE PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FINALLY STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF...MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK TO EARLY SPRINGLIKE VALUES AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK ON THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. VARIOUS MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO BEING CONVEYED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY LOW AT DIA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THEY MAY GET ABOVE BKN070 BEFORE 00Z. REAL LIGHT SNOW IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. THE WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THEM UNTIL AROUND 03Z...THEN DRAINAGE PATTERNS ARE LIKELY. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJK SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...RJK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.