Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 242213 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 413 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 413 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016 CURRENT BATCH OF STORMS MAKING THE MOST OF THE POCKET OF BEST INSTABILITY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST BUT STILL GOOD INFLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FROM HAIL TO WIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WE HAD A FEW NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENVER...SHOULD BE LESS INTENSITY FROM NOW ON IN THE DRIER AIR. LOTS OF WEAK CONVECTION UPSTREAM AGAIN BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME CLOUD COVER AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AGAIN. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALOFT...BUT STILL DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE EAST AND WE WILL HAVE MADE SOME RECOVERY FROM YESTERDAY COLD FRONT. SO EXPECTING A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE CITIES...AND THEN PERHAPS MORE ON THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING AGAIN. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS EVENING AS WE HAD A MINIMA THERE. MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER IF THE CURRENT STORMS CONGEAL INTO A BETTER LINE. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 413 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016 The long term period will be dominated by daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the forecast area with near to above normal temperatures. A few thunderstorms will continue Monday evening, with a few stronger storms possible over the far eastern plains as a jet near the area travels over the upper ridge. An upper shortwave trough will move over the state Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures in southwest flow ahead of it. Afternoon storms over the mountains will spread east over the plains with the better chance over the far eastern plains where better moisture will exist. As the shortwave passes into Kansas late Tuesday night and northwest flow aloft establishes over Colorado, a cold front is progged to push south into the area Wednesday with upslope flow expected through the day. Increased stability and drier air pushing in from the northwest will limit chances of storm coverage, especially in the high country. The upper high will remain over southern Utah and northern Arizona into the weekend to keep northwest flow aloft. A couple pieces of energy will move out of Canada to push in cooler air into the plains Thursday and Friday for temperatures back near normal. Temperatures will warm again through the weekend as the ridge becomes established again. Moisture under the ridge will continue to bring afternoon and evening storms to the area Thursday through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 413 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016 VFR through tonight. Most of the thunderstorms will be east of Denver, but there will still be some isolated showers/storms that could produce wind gusts to 30 knots through about 02Z. Isolated storms expected again late Monday afternoon and evening with a threat of gusty winds. && .BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gimmestad LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Gimmestad

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