Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 012040 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 240 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IS SUSTAINING ALONG THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SO FAR IS DYING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST. WITH PLENTY OF HEATING LEFT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DROP POPS FURTHER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY EVEN BE LESS THAN FORECAST ON THE PLAINS TODAY. FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT MOVES EASTWARD TO OVER COLORADO BY SUNDAY. IT STAYS THERE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THEN IS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW PROGGED OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. PRETTY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR US SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY MORNING...THEN IT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAK UPWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY AREA FLOW SHOULD BE A CROSS BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING. FOR MOISTURE...THINGS ARE PRETTY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE. THE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 50S F THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY COME UP INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE PROGGED SATURDAY EVENING AND LATE DAY SUNDAY. VALUES INCREASE LATE DAY MONDAY...BUT NOTHING GREAT. WILL KEEP LATE DAY POPS AROUND 30%S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER DAY PERIODS...WITH 0-10%S FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WILL UP THINGS A BIT FOR LATE DAY MONDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES ...READINGS WILL BE UP 0-1.5 C FOR SUNDAY`S HIGHS...THEN 0-2 C COOLER FOR MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OR THREE WEAK UPPER TROUGHS...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS. THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD COMPARE TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A TAD BELOW NORMALS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014 VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR SOUTHWEST APPROACH GATES TO KDEN. FOR SATURDAY EVEN LESS ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED ON KDEN TRAFFIC. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

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