National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KBOU 250223
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
823 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
TSTMS HAVE ENDED OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. A BNDRY
HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE BUT NO TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AS IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS CAPPED. STILL COULD
SEE AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER THRU MIDNIGHT
SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS OUT THERE.

.AVIATION...DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK INTO THE
AIRPORT. LATEST RAP SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DVLP OVER
SRN WELD COUNTY BY 10Z HOWEVER LOW LVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME
MORE SWLY BY THEN SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP STRATUS TO THE N AND NE OF
DIA FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS WILL KEEP THEN NELY THRU 05Z
AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THEM BACK TO SSW AFTER 06Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO ISSUES
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/ISSUED 249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S CURRENT HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.

AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.

HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK