Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 011649 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS REMAIN AROUND THE ONE INCH MARK WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHICH WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALOFT...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS...ON THEIR WAY TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING AT LOW LEVELS AND MODEST COOLING AROUND 500 MB. AS THE SURFACE WARMS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS OF A CAPPING INVERSION THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND ONLY 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE COVERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET. HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 IDEAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS STILL SEEM TO APPLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS IN THE REGION. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT SCENARIO OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DANKERS SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...COOPER AVIATION...DANKERS

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