Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 060258 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 858 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 SHOWERS DID NOT MATERIALIZE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LITTLE BITS OF VIRGA HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SHOWERS AND ADD A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER. ALSO A LITTLE MORE SOUTH WIND ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARM DAYS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND ONTO THE PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES IF THE FRONT SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRESENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ALSO MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS POINT. STILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 ...SEVERE STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY FOR THE PLAINS... FRIDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND KEEP MOISTURE AND THEREFORE LASTING THUNDER AT BAY ON THE PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NE COLORADO. THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE WIND FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST NW FLOW BROUGHT DOWN WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL WRAP INTO IT A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL COMING TOGETHER BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CREATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL A 60+ KT JET WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION ENCOURAGING ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY SHOW INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH SHEAR AND QG VALUES WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A DRY SLOT INTO EASTERN COLORADO LIFTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE KEEPING UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER OVER NE COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO WYOMING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIMMESTAD SHORT TERM...DANKERS LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

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