Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 250227 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 827 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE METRO AREA. RADAR SHOWED SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF DENVER...WHICH HAVE NOW DECREASED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DENVER METRO AREA. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT FOR STORMS THIS EVENING FROM DENVER AND NORTH. MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL SEE STORMS JUST SOUTH OF DENVER...AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND 1.00 INCH OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CIN IS GONE OVER THE PLAINS NOW. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN DOWN A BIT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WESTERLY AT 30-50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH HELPS BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT...THEN NORTH TO EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE ...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PLUME LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE SATELLITE PICTURES. AGAIN... THE MODELS HAVE 0.70 TO 1.30 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CAPE PROGS SHOW IT GOING AWAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON....THERE IS 300-1200 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST NOTHING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS A BIT MORE THAN THIS EVENING`S...BUT NOTHING GREAT. SO FOR POPS...WITH THE INITIAL BATCH MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE PLAINS AND NOT MUCH UPSTREAM...WILL GO WITH LIMITED CHANCES THIS EVENING. NOTHING AFTER LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY 20-30%S AGAIN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY SEEMS TO COOL OFF MAYBE 1-2 C DOWN FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S READINGS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. ON SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS COLORADO WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS PLAINS...SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. FOR MONDAY... THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SHOULD GENERATE A DECENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS PLAINS...LOW LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES WHICH SHOULD KEEP CAP IN PLACE LIMITING THE STORM POTENTIAL. BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT TO OFFSET THIS CAP...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HIGHS ACROSS PLAINS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT PERSISTENT CAP MAY AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. FOR THE LATER DAYS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUESDAY AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. STILL DECENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014 STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING THAT ORIGINATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY 04Z BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KDEN AND KAPA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER FEWER ARE EXPECTED THAN TODAY. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MEIER SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM...D-L AVIATION...MEIER

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