Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS65 KBOU 041610 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1010 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON TO 1 PM CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVER-DOING THE MOISTURE BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP SCENARIO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS. WITH SOLAR INFLUENCE THIS MORNING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS FROM THE NE...DENVER COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND 80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY ...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY ...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 080 WITH BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BOWEN SHORT TERM...DANKERS LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...BOWEN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.