Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 220155 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 755 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014 MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TRYING TO TIME THE SHOWER BANDS. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN DENVER IS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. SHOWERS AROUND THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK AND TRANSIENT AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WHAT REACHES THE GROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS ENTERING NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS SURVIVE WITH IT ONTO THE PLAINS TOWARD MORNING. SNOW LEVEL STILL ABOVE TIMBERLINE...BUT SOME COOLING LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014 A PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS BACK OVER WESTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL UTAH. LOOKING AT SATELLITE HOWEVER AND MONITORING MODEL TRENDS...EXPECTING A PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER...SO AFTER THESE TWO WAVES TONIGHT WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TRENDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FEET...EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUT ON THE PLAINS WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR SO INITIALLY WILL LIKELY SEE VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THEN JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AGAIN ESTABLISH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK CAPE...AND THE MAIN TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BRINGING READINGS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014 MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT AUTUMN WARM SPELL. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH HEIGHTS WITH MILD AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DENVER AREA. THE RECORD HIGH ON BOTH DAYS IS 80 DEGREES. AS THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ZERO. CHANGES IN THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE AND VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 6000 FEET AROUND SUNRISE AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST.
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&& .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIMMESTAD SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/RJK

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