Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 280314 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 814 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 759 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Some mtn areas north of I-70 have been receiving decent snow in swly flow. With upper lvl jet fcst to remain in place overnight could see some banded pcpn enhancing snow amounts so will issue an advisory for zns 31 and 33. Axis of jet is fcst to shift a bit further south late tonight so snow should increase in mtn areas along I-70 as well and continue into Tue as main upper level trough moves across so will include zn 34 as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Main concern over next 24 hours will be snowfall potential with incoming system over mountains and portions of the plains. Initially this afternoon, the upper level trof is over the Great Basin with a strong southwest flow aloft. There is also a 140kt jet that is lifting northward over Western Colorado. Snow showers are increasing over the mountains this afternoon but webcams showing snow mainly over the higher terrain and not much happening on valley floors. Best chance of snow will be early this evening before decreasing overnight with departing jet and northern portion of the wave moves off. Next batch of deeper moisture over Southern California will move into area on Tuesday with moderate QG ascent even over east central Colorado by afternoon. With shallow upslope and modest lapse rates, models continue to show some light snow accumulations for locations just East and South of Denver and extending across the Palmer Divide. Will maintain these areas with the higher chances of snowfall. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Snow and strong winds will continue in the mountains Tuesday night with a push of stronger winds expected after midnight. Gusts of up to 60 mph should occur down the east slopes of the Front Range mountains, foothills and along the Cheyenne Ridge. An additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected over the high mountains. Over the plains, decreasing snow showers are expected over areas south and east of Denver. Up to an additional inch of snow is expected with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph decreasing and becoming westerly. Northwesterly flow aloft will keep cooler temperatures over the area with light orographic snow over the mountains Wednesday. A shortwave upper ridge Thursday, followed by westerly zonal flow Friday, then a larger upper ridge Saturday into Sunday will allow for several days of warm and dry conditions across the area. Models diverge on the next system with the Canadian and EC pushing in the trough on Saturday night into Sunday for snow pushing into the mountains, with the Canadian wanting to bring precipitation across the plains Sunday. The GFS is much slower bringing in the system and drier. Overall the system seems to be wanting to stay too far north, with not a lot of moisture. For now, will only allow a chance over the mountains Sunday and keep out any mention of precip for the plains. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 759 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Fnt is moving towards DIA fm the north which is 4 hours ahead of schedule and should switch winds to a more nne direction by 04z and then more ely by 06z. By 12z they will become more sely.
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&& .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Entrekin LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...RPK

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