Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000 FXUS65 KBOU 240248 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 848 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SHORT TERM UPDATE... ISSUED AT 847 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014 ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ON THE PLAINS AT THIS HOUR AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS GROWS DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TRANSITIONING TO THEIR TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WILL REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014 THERE IS ISOLATED SHALLOW BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FURTHER EAST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING STRONG INVERSION AROUND 500MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE ONLY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALREADY REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATED JUST LIGHT SHOWERS. THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND STABILIZE WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014 THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE STATE FOR CONTINUED WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE FRIDAY TO MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST - BUT HAVE KEPT THE SAME FORECASTED TRENDS. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TUESDAY TO RETURN TO A WARM AND DRY TREND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 847 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014 WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE GRADUALLY SWINGING CLOCKWISE AROUND TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY STAY BELOW 8 KTS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAKER SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...BAKER

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