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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KBOU 090315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...VERY QUIET NIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH. AIRMASS IS DRY...BUT STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE COOLING TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NORMAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WEST WINDS AT KBJC. AIRMASS WILL BE
DRY WITH JUST FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. HIGH AND DRY WITH STEADY WARMING ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...
WARMER LOWS IN AREAS WITH DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT...A BIT COLDER IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF
TODAYS TEMPERATURES. WINDS/HUMIDITY IN OUR DRY NORTHEAST CORNER
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT QUITE GET TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...WORSE
FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM...THERE IS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS OVER
COLORADO. IT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF IT STAYS TO THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID
DAY TUESDAY...THE UPWARD ENERGY IS PRETTY STRONG ON THE QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FAIRLY
STRONG ENERGY FROM THAT SECOND TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. WIND-WISE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ADHERE TO
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT...LATE...AND IT IS NOT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL
AFTER DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG ON TUESDAY...BUT IT BECOMES
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND DEEPENS OVER THE CWA. AFTER
THE FRONT...MOISTURE DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALL THE CWA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE IS NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE CWA
ON TUESDAY...THEN A TAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING
..THEN NONE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROGGED AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST. FOR
POPS...WILL GO WITH "LIKELY"S ON TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE
PLAINS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL DECREASE POPS
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ALMOST NOTHING LATE NIGHT. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER COLORADO...BUT THERE IS A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IT
BECOMES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK ALL THREE DAYS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF IS DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
..THE GFS HAS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GO BACK TO S/W DRAINAGE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY TAKE
ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR MAY JUST
DECREASE IN SPEED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER