Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE WERE ONLY ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THOSE WILL BE ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK. A SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH
AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS AND CAP IS WEAKEST.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS A THETA-E MINIMUM ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH LITTLE/NO CAPE AND MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STILL CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DRIFTING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR PLAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MOUNTAIN AREAS EXPECT UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMING DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. THAT WILL
PUT US BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN LOOK FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVAILING FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL BE DUE TO SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN THE RIDGES PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL START OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. A TONGUE OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SATURDAY BRINGING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY A STRONG TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD AIDING IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MINIMAL CAPE WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A DECENT INVERTED V SIGNATURE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AROUND
0.85 INCH THAT COULD LEAD TO STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH COOLING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR MONDAY
RETURNING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY START TO MAKES ITS
WAY BACK NORTH BRINGING MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES VERY
LITTLE WITH SW FLOW REMAINING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
PLAINS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN TRANSITIONING TO
MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY 17Z-01Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST DENVER APPROACH
GATES 18Z-02Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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