Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 272116
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
316 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An upper trough over the southern Great Basin will move slowly
east overnight and be near the Four Corners region by Sunday
afternoon. This will bring warming temperatures in southwesterly
flow aloft. A surface trough along the Front Range has helped to
bring in low level moisture in southeasterly winds over the
eastern plains, helping to fuel thunderstorms in Lincoln County.
This afternoons weaker showers and thunderstorms are expected to
last into the early evening mainly over the higher terrain before
skies will begin to clear. A thunderstorm or two may make it over
the plains near the Palmer Divide.

An area of moisture currently over southwestern Colorado will move
into the central mountains overnight to keep a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night. Overnight lows will
be warmer than last nights with warming temps aloft as well as
additional cloud cover. More moisture is expected to advect in
overnight over the eastern plains to bring fog, likely over
Lincoln County towards sunrise.

The upper low will move near the Four Corners Sunday with a jet
max rounding into southern Colorado. Temperatures will again be
near average for this time of year, and be 1-4 degrees warmer than
todays readings. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon over the high terrain, Palmer Divide and over the
eastern plains where higher moisture will lead to higher CAPE
values. Areas closer to the urban corridor will remain mostly
capped until later.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The slowing and gradually weakening upper level trough appears it
will have a bit more impact on the forecast area than earlier
suggested. For tomorrow night, an upper level speed max and
associated left front exit region will likely keep some
convection going. The best chance of this will be from Park
county and the Palmer Divide eastward onto the plains where the
deepest moisture, instability, and best lift exist.

Not a whole lot changes on Monday as very little movement is
expected in the upper level features. Once again, the best plume
of moisture and upper level jet will be just to our south and
east. Have adjusted the forecast to account for this...slightly
cooler with a little better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday could still be a near repeat but the upper ridge building
to our north may finally shift the better moisture plume farther
south and east. Overall strength of storms will be limited by
CAPES at or less than 1000 j/kg and weak shear profiles.

Wednesday will begin to feature warmer and generally drier
weather with the upper ridge building. Medium range models still
indicate a shift to southwest flow aloft ahead of a deep upper
level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest for Thursday
through Saturday. This would keep above normal temperatures in
place with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms shifting
to the mountains and western Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions expected through Sunday afternoon. The best chance
for storms this afternoon and evening should remain south and
west of the Denver area, with an outflow boundary possibly
impacting airports. Northeast winds will transition to drainage
overnight, only to return to northeast by Sunday afternoon. Cloud
cover over night should inhibit any fog from forming. Storm
coverage will be increasing Sunday, however no storms are expected
over the area airports through 18z, except near the Palmer
Divide possibly.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Kriederman


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