Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 232115
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
415 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Lingering rain showers come to an end this evening as drier air
works into the region behind a cold front.  Blustery, dry and colder
weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next
weekend. A cold front may bring showers next Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

The last of the heavy rain/isolated convection exits the
Cape/Islands within the next hour.  May see a few other showers
linger into the first part of the evening but that is about it. We
will let the wind advisory expire at 6 pm for southeast New England
as the low level jet shifts east of the region.

Current temps were still in the lower to middle 30s across a few
areas of interior MA but well into 50s along the coastal plain late
this afternoon. Should see temps across the interior briefly rise
behind the cold front over the next few hours as inversion mixes
out.  This will take care of any lingering icy roads/walkways across
north central and northeast MA.

Otherwise...dry weather along with partial clearing behind the cold
front later this evening.  Low temps by daybreak will fall back into
the upper 20s to the middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday...

A west northwest flow of more seasonable temperatures will be
working back into the region on Wednesday.  High temps will not
recover too much...generally remaining in the 30s to near 40 across
parts of the coastal plain.  Should be at least partial
sunshine...but do expect some strato-cumulus clouds that will be
focused across the interior.  West to northwest winds will gust to
between 25 and 30 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Dry but cooler weather for the rest of the work week
* Above average temperatures for Saturday and Sunday
* Next shot of wet weather will be around Sun/Mon

Overview...

12z guidance is in general agreement with the upcoming medium and
long range. Progressive pattern over the region as ongoing upper
level trough will push offshore as mid-level ridge builds into the
area by the weekend. For the end of the period, still some
uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of the upper level
trough moving from the Northern Plains towards the East Coast Sun
into Monday. GFS continues to be on the faster side of the envelope
compared to the EC and UKMET. If the guidance continues to trend
towards the slower envelope, than there is the potential for a more
significant surface low to develop. This could result in warmer
temps for the weekend, and heavier rainfall. If it is weaker, than
cannot rule out some trapped cold air resulting in p-type issues.
Still a lot of uncertainty and will trend towards a blend of the
guidance until details can be sorted.

Wednesday night into Friday...High confidence.

Building high pressure across the southeast will build across the US
East Coast resulting in dry weather through the period. Still some
thermal gradients in the mid-levels as upper level shortwave passes
through on Thursday. This will result in a breezy but chill day.
Temperatures will still be in the 30s on Friday, but with less winds
should make it feel warmer. Some mid-level moisture around 850-700mb
will help bring in some clouds but overall a pleasant January day is
on tap.

Saturday into Monday...Moderate confidence.

Subtropical ridge will build across the US East Coast over the
weekend as northern stream system approaches the Northeast. All
guidance as well as the ensembles are indicating precipitation for
the area. Biggest uncertainty is the amount, exact timing and if
all precip will be liquid. Current forecast is an ongoing blend of
the guidance with a trend towards the UKMET and EC. Thus expect
precipitation to move into the area on Sunday as mostly rain and
temperatures will be well above average thanks to southerly LLJ.
If precip lingers into Monday, CAA behind the system could switch
any precip to snow, but overall confidence is low that this will
occur. Will need better guidance to see this potential.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Rapid improvement from west
to east through 02z with most locations improving to VFR. Some
marginal MVFR cigs may work back into the region after midnight in
the CAA pattern...mainly across the interior.

Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR but some brief
marginal MVFR cigs possible for a time in the interior. WNW winds
gusts of 20 to 30 knots.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Tonight...High confidence.  Lingering southerly gale force wind
gusts rapidly diminish this evening as LLJ moves east of the region.
Then may see a temporary lull in the winds...but they will pick back
up after midnight with WSW gusts of 25 to 30 knots developing in the
cold air advection pattern.

Wednesday...High confidence.  WNW wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots in
the cold air advection pattern.  SCA headlines will be needed for
most waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing
spray.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the CT River at Middle
Haddam...but there are no other hydro concerns at this point.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ013-015>024.
RI...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for RIZ002>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-251.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Frank/Dunten
MARINE...Frank/Dunten
HYDROLOGY...Staff



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