Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260606 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 206 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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2 AM UPDATE... WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FROM ALBANY AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CATSKILLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND 145 KT JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES OF MA AND INTO WESTERN CT THRU 09Z/5AM. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY WITH WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD SUNRISE AS LEAD SHORT WAVE AND FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS JUST ENOUGH. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG CAA STILL ALOFT. WENT A FEW MPH HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE AT IT SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE GUST POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PATTERN. APPEARS THAT THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ON TRACK...ESP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN A TAD GUSTY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 40S AS GUSTY WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY MON/TUE WITH WARMING TREND * MILD WED WITH FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS * A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY END OF WEEK BUT TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MON AND TUE... RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT BRISK W/NW FLOW MON WHICH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES MORE S/SW TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS STAY IN 50S MON BUT SHOULD REACH LOW-MID 60S TUE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BASED UPON MODEL 2M TEMPS. WED... APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD SW FLOW TO REGION. DESPITE FACT 12Z MODELS BRING FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MORNING AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE WED EVENING....MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 60S IF NOT 70 ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MA SINCE COOL AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND FRONT. THU... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER NW FLOW PREVAILS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 50S. FRI AND SAT... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM COMBINATION OF PACIFIC ENERGY AND UPPER LOW E OF HUDSON BAY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER S ACROSS CAROLINAS AND DEEPER WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT FRI INTO SAT WITH ECMWF PAINTING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN GFS WHICH SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITING NEW ENGLAND SAT. FOR NOW WE WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MENTION OF PRECIP INTO SAT SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION BECOME MORE LIKELY. DOES LOOK LIKE SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND EITHER WAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THRU 12Z... AREA OF LOW TOP SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NY WILL WEAKEN AS THE ACTIVITY ENTERS SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. VERY LOW RISK OF A BRIEF SHRA/-TSRA AT BDL/BAF IN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE QUIET REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH VFR. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AFTER 12Z... ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE. WEST WIND GUSTY 15-25 KT. DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP 15Z/16Z CIGS BKN040-060 WITH AN BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 15-25 KT. MONDAY... VFR BUT WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF BRIEF SHRA/-TSRA THRU 09Z. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...VFR. WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. THU...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 PM UPDATE... WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS FORECAST A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE ONSET OF THESE STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------ TONIGHT... COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06Z-12Z WITH WNW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WNW GALES...SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS. SUNDAY... WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. ANTICIPATE WNW GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTS. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY. SUNDAY NIGHT... WNW GALES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT GUSTS OF 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS AND DRY WEATHER. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS NEAR SCA EARLY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST RESULTING S/SW FLOW ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA...MAINLY ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS...BEFORE FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO NW DURING EVENING. NOTHING MORE THAN FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONT. THURSDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLC COAST... BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236- 250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/JWD NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD

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