Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 200823 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 423 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY... RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS EXCEPT FOR CHILLY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH MORE DRY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLY THIS MORNING... VEIL OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT 07Z FROM THE STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS. HAVE NOTED THE TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE DENSE BAND S OF NEW ENGLAND TO SLOWLY SHIFT S AND BECOME THINNER. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS S OUT OF QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE THIN CIRRUS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM ABOUT KBAF-KORH- KOWD NORTHWARD...WITH 40-45 DEGREE READINGS HOLDING ON ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS S NH AND NE/N CENTRAL AND W MA...RANGING TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE S COAST. TODAY... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING...PUSHING TO MASS BAY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT TO E BUT TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS. SHOULD SEE THE HIGH CLOUDS FINALLY PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST...HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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TONIGHT... THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION...BUT ITS RIDGE WILL ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT DOWN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE WILL START OFF FROM THE E...THEN WILL VEER TO SE-S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH CALM CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCALES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS STARTING TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING LOWS TO BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MONDAY... WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANTLY DRY DAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. S-SW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. H925 WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT...SO THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE GENERAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST THOUGH WILL BE ONSHORE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. MAY NOT MIX DOWN QUITE AS MUCH THOUGH...SO SHOULD SEE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. H85 TEMPS RISE DURING THE DAY...TOPPING OFF FROM +7C TO +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH COULD TOUCH 70 ACROSS SOME LOCALES ALONG THE CT VALLEY. READINGS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODEL OVERVIEW... SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FLOW BECOMES PHASED ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. THIS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...BUT SHOULD DO SO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. DISAGREEMENT OCCURS AROUND THE TIME THE PHASED FLOW COMES IN AS TO HOW FAST THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. USUAL MODEL BIASES...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE WPC SOLUTION GUIDE THIS FORECAST AS TO THE SPEED OF THE PASSAGE. ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. DAILIES... MONDAY TO TUESDAY...HIGH DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST USA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SLOWLY MEANDERS TO THE EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE HIGH ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO GET MILDER. BOTH DAYS SEE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 8-10C AND MODEL MIXING UP TO AROUND 900MB SO COULD SEE IT APPROACH 70F ESPECIALLY SINCE MIXING MAY BE UNDERDONE. MONDAY...WITH ITS WEAK WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KTS AND WARMER TEMPS ON LAND...MAY SEE A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST COLUMNS...PWATS 1SD ABOVE NORMAL AND K- INDEX APPROACHING 30. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND TOTAL OF TOTALS NEARING 50 CAN/T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. PRECIP SHOULD AMOUNT TO AROUND 0.25". LLJ AT 850 MB APPROACHING 30KTS SO SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SHOULD BE SEEN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY IN THE MORNING. NEGATIVELY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOLLOWS IT INDICATING COLD AIR 1SD BELOW NORMAL TO FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS FROM MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE SEEN DUE TO A LLJ FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FROM THE PHASED WINDS MIXING DOWN. FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAVE KEPT THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE/S RETURN FLOW. SATURDAY...A BIT OF A MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...BUT HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE AREA. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THIS STORM.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...VFR. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO E-SE AND DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO S TONIGHT. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOKS TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ON CLEAR SKIES AND NW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFTS GOING FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE WINDS TO START OFF WILL VEER TO E-SE DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT SE WINDS BECOMING S. MONDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH FEW S/SW GUSTS AROUND 25KTS POSSIBLE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5FT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THIS PERIOD. RAIN SHOULD END AT ABOUT LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. THURSDAY...POTENTIAL NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-8 FEET DURING THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER. RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT... HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...BELK/EVT HYDROLOGY...EVT

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