Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 041400 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A BRIEF END TO THE RECENT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE S WITH NE FLOW USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SWD INTO SNE BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATING DRYING MORNING IN FROM THE NE BUT THERE IS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MA THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE INCREASING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN E NEW ENG MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW SC DEVELOPING ACROSS SE MA. ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPING SC IN W NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE ROBUST. SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW MIXING ONLY TO 950 MB IN THE EAST AND 900 MB IN THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 70 DEGREES IN E COASTAL MA DUE TO NE FLOW WITH MAXES NEAR 80 IN THE CT VALLEY...AND 70S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE NE BEHIND EXITING BACKDOOR FRONT. MASS FIELDS ALL SUGGEST RAPID SLACKENING. THIS WEAK PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND HIGHS TODAY BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 50S IN NORMAL RADIATIONAL SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...DEEPER VALLEYS OF NW MA MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S. A GOOD...COOL...OPEN THE WINDOWS KIND OF NIGHT. SAT... ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRES. CLEAR SKIES AND SOME ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOMEWHAT EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL. IN THE MID 70S /NEAR SHORE/ TO LOW 80S INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUN AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK * DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION... 04/00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGEST WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL NEXT THU OR FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FINALLY EJECTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ERODES THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY... NOT AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT BUT STILL SEASONABLE COOL ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. THEN SUNDAY AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA HUMIDITY REMAINS IN CHECK WITH DEW PTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MU50S. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND...70S AT THE SHORE IN RESPONSE TO COOLING AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING ANOMALOUS HEAT TO ADVECT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +18C TUE AND WED. THIS WARMTH ALOFT COMBINED WITH WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS 85 TO 90. HUMIDITY INCREASES TOO WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 60S TUE AND WED. THURSDAY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NEXT THU OR FRI. THUS NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 AM UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE S COAST AND W NEW ENG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE MA BUR LOW CONFIDENCE. NE WINDS DIMINISHING FROM N TO S BUT STILL GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... VFR. SOME ISOLATED FOG MAINLY IN WRN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. SAT... MAINLY VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG. LIGHT FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WITH STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE NE...N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 4-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING/PLACEMENT CURRENTLY LOOK GOOD SO NO PROPOSED CHANGES. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SAT... HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO QUIET WX ACROSS THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY

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