Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 041906 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 306 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT COOLER UPPER 40S IN COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND INTERIOR E MA. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL PRONE LOCATIONS FOR RADIATION FOG. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT BUILDS OVER SNE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SUNNY DAYS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SAT WITH COASTAL SEABREEZES...POSSIBLY WARMING INTO LOWER 80S CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE MA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTH DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUN AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK * DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION... 04/00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGEST WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL NEXT THU OR FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FINALLY EJECTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ERODES THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING ANOMALOUS HEAT TO ADVECT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +18C TUE AND WED. THIS WARMTH ALOFT COMBINED WITH WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS 85 TO 90. HUMIDITY INCREASES TOO WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 60S TUE AND WED. THURSDAY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NEXT THU OR FRI. THUS NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS...CLEARING 21-00Z. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS THEN CLEARING. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. PATCHY IFR RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. COASTAL SEABREEZES SATURDAY. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 16Z SAT. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SAT INTO SUN...HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA MARINE...KJC/NOCERA

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