Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 241956 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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SATURDAY... FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR 10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY * HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE * POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK DETAILS... SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S. MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MANY LOCALES. TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING. TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH 06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES. SATURDAY...VFR. SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO VFR. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...KJC/NMB MARINE...KJC/NMB

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