Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 261052 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 652 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly build across the region today and Monday, bringing very warm and dry conditions. A cold front will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and possibly some thunder Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more showers sometime Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 am update... A few reports of cirrus, otherwise sunny skies. Fair weather should continue through the day. Current forecast looks fine with no changes planned. Previous forecast... Can expect mainly sunny skies, except again from some patchy mid and high level clouds especially across W MA and N Central CT that work in on the NW wind flow aloft. As the high sits over the region, will see winds from the E-SE across E MA/RI while shift to more a S-SE direction over central and western areas. Temperatures will rebound quickly today especially away from the coast. Readings by noontime should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then top off in the mid 80s up close to or eclipsing 90 in a few spots. Along the immediate coast, temps will range from around 70 on the outer Cape to around 80 at a few spots on the North Shore as well as Boston. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight... Skies will start off mostly clear but, with the continued S-SW wind flow, dewpoints will gradually increase overnight. Some question as to whether a low level marine stratus cloud layer will work into S coastal areas overnight, which would work as far inland as NE CT/N RI into interior SE MA. Will need to monitor this potential. Expect overnight temps to not be quite as cool in some of the normally chiller locales as they have been over the last few nights. Readings should bottom out mainly in the 50s, but will linger in the lower-mid 60s in the urban centers as well as over the higher inland terrain with some radiational cooling still occurring. Monday... Expect another warm day as S-SW winds begin to pick up. Will see wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the afternoon, mainly near the E coast. Clouds will also be increasing from W-E well ahead of an approaching cold front, mainly across central and western areas during the afternoon. Any precip should hold off until sometime Mon night. Temperatures will once again rebound to the mid-upper 80s inland and even along the immediate E coast with a more offshore wind component, but holding in the 70s along the S coast, Cape Cod and the islands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big Picture... Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern over North America. One shortwave rippling through the northern flow moves from the Great Lakes into New England midweek and then off through the Maritimes by Thursday. A second shortwave moves down from Northern Canada midweek and moves into New England during next weekend. Each shortwave will be driving a cold front through our area, one midweek and the second next weekend. The models continue to handle the midweek system differently. The GFS continues to be the fast outlier of the group while the ECMWF focuses on Wednesday. As noted yesterday the northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakes Monday night and turns the upper flow more SW-NE and parallel to the surface cold front. With more push along the front rather than across it we would expect the slowing shown by the ECMWF et al rather than the GFS solution. Details... Monday night through Wednesday... As noted above, the upper flow over the Northeast USA turns SW-NE as the first upper shortwave approaches. This supports a slower approach of pcpn. We will continue with slight chance and low-end chance pops in Western/Central MA and Northern CT but with a feeling that most action will focus north and west of our area. Cold front slowly moves east across Central and Eastern NY on Tuesday. Jet dynamics and stability support most convection in that area, perhaps eventually bleeding over into Southern New England. Best chance for this would be in Western MA and adjacent CT. Low level flow does bring in increasing dew points with values climbing into the low to mid 60s. Cold front crosses Southern New England late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should provide an additional chance of showers/thunder until fropa. Thursday through Saturday... High pressure builds over New England for Thursday and Friday. This should be a dry period with temps aloft in the mid teens C, supporting surface max temps in the 80s. Second northern stream shortwave approaches on Saturday and brings potential for showers and possible thunder, although timing of a day seven feature carries low confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/... Today...High Confidence. VFR. Expect E-SE winds up to around 10 kt along the east coast and S-SE winds up to 10 kt on the S coast. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. May see brief pockets of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog across some of the normally prone inland areas including interior E Mass and N Central/NW Mass after midnight. S-SE winds up to 10 kt. Monday...High confidence. Any leftover MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog should improve by 13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually increasing, gusts up to 20 kt Mon afternoon along the E coast. KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds up to 10 kt this afternoon, becoming light S tonight. S-SW winds increase Mon, gusting up to around 20 kt Mon afternoon. KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog. Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. South to southwest surface winds will turn West to northwest behind the front on Wednesday. Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence. Today and tonight...Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria as high pressure ridge moves slowly southward across the waters. Monday...S winds will begin to increase, but should remain below small craft criteria. However, seas on the eastern waters will build up to around 5 ft by Monday afternoon, so have issued a Small Craft for Hazardous Seas on the eastern outer waters, mainly N of Boston Harbor to Cape Ann. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence. Monday night through Wednesday... Seas of 5 feet may linger east of Cape Ann Monday night, driven by southerly winds gusting near 20 knots. The Small Craft Advisory for Seas may need to be extended much of the night. South winds Tuesday will continue to gust near 20 knots. A cold front moves across the waters Wednesday, which will turn winds out of the west and northwest during the afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday. Also potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Thursday... Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds. Expect dry weather. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...WTB/EVT

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