Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 310747 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 347 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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A FEW LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY WX PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING H85 TEMPS...PREVENTING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH CP ORIGINS WILL BE RIDING STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ODDS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS HOW FAR N THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL REACH. YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...A SHIFT BACK TO THE N...EVEN IN AVAILABLE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE. NOTE A MODEST LOW-MID LVL F-GEN AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AS A CHANNEL OF NEGATIVE OMEGA BETWEEN H8 AND H6. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING INTO THE LOW-LVLS FROM THE N THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW THEN DUE E THROUGH THE EVENING- OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR WINS ANYWHERE S OF A LINE DRAWN ACROSS THE CT/RI BORDER WITH MA AND SE MA. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT ONE GETS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE STEADY PRECIP...SO IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE SHIELD RECEIVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST. REGARDING P-TYPE...LOW-LVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A RAINY START IN CT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS E. THERE IS SOME MODERATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE ALOFT...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FASTER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THANKS TO DYNAMIC COOLING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS. WEDNESDAY... COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER OFFSHORE. SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO -10C SUSPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY LOW-MID 40S EXPECTED...BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK * INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING... COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME W WINDS GUSTING 20+ AT TIMES ESPECIALLY E MA. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY S OF AN HFD-IJD-PYM LINE. VFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY ON GRASS RATHER THAN RUNWAYS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...AT ISSUE IS THE CHANCE FOR A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TODAY... W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OFFSHORE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...CURRENT ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW... LOW PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W TO N EARLY WED MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING AS THEY SHIFT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ALSO INCREASE SUCH THAT 5-7 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED. THEREFORE...AFTER A BRIEF LULL TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONGOING HEADLINE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DOODY/RLG MARINE...DOODY/RLG

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