Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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329 FXUS61 KBOX 301105 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 700 AM UPDATE... AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST. EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY * DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY * MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN. DETAILS... SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT. MORE COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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