Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 241423 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1015 AM UPDATE... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT. SATURDAY... APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY * DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND * RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION /ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE. DETAILS... SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45 KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S. MON AND TUE... HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING. THU AND FRI... ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT. TODAY... IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT... SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW. SATURDAY... VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND. KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH TONIGHT AND SAT. KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH TONIGHT AND SAT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO 25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE EAST. TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS. SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231- 232-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY

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