Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 012300 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 700 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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7 PM UPDATE... SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CENTERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY * PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND * THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT OVERVIEW... GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAILIES... MONDAY... FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. MON NIGHT INTO TUE... COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. WED INTO THU... LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO SNE. ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FRI INTO SAT... LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY FAR W NEW ENG. MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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