Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 260622 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 122 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY... BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
115 AM UPDATE... OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS IN NORTHWEST MA WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THERE WAS A GUST BEYOND 40 MPH AT PITTSFIELD MA IN THE BERKSHIRES. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY ARE GENERALLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EXCEPT STILL MID 40S ON THE ISLANDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL TEND TO STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC/SE U.S. COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...KEEPING A GENERAL W WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS WELL. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND MAY BACK TO SW DURING FRI NIGHT DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR THIS SHIFTS TO THE E. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE 30S...RUNNING 10-15 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCKING COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CANADA...TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 50. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS FRI NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY * TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DRY DETAILS... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRINGING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS TO OUR AREA...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. H925 TEMPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON 5C ON GFS AND 3-4C ON ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT JUST A HINT COOLER THAN PREV FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA FLATTENS OUT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BROUGHT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION IS EITHER EAST OF OUR AREA FOR MON TO TUE...OR STAYS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA MON TO TUE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DID SHOW LOW PRESSURE MAKING A CLOSE PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER OUR AREA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED...MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO SO THINKING THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND PROBABLY STAYS WITH US FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUE AND WED HIGH TEMPS MAY BE LIMITED TO UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED NIGHT. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MA AND CLEAR SKIES IN RI AND EASTERN MA. W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MAINLY 15-25 KT GUSTS ELSEWHERE...SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT...HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 34 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED WELL INTO FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED BY FRIDAY FOR MOST THE NEARSHORE WATERS. FRIDAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE NEARSHORE... BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY NIGHT...W WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD FOR PART OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SAT. SW TO W WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/NMB/GAF NEAR TERM...GAF SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...EVT/NMB MARINE...EVT/NMB/GAF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.