Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 240139 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 939 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 940 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GRAZE AT LEAST NORTHERN MA OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS BECAME A BIT GUSTY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO 40S TO AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW * WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR. MONDAY... WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST. WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL BUOYS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND FERRY REPORTS INDICATE SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS WHERE WE WILL MAINTAIN SCA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA IN LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NEAR SHORE WATERS SUN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25KT GUSTS COMING OFF LAND...AS WELL AS OUTER WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT/JWD FIRE WEATHER...EVT

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