Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 032039 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K- INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT. THUS EXPECTING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD * MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 430 PM UPDATE... THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE N/NE. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI. FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR 5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK. LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH. FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB NEAR TERM...NMB SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/NMB MARINE...BELK/NMB

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