Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 251410 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1010 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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10 AM UPDATE...STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES DRIFTING THROUGH ESSEX COUNTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. STILL NOT SURE WHAT...IF ANY...PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND SO HAVE KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS... PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S ONCE MORE. FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS THERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK * SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY * HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY * LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY OVERVIEW... STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATTER FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST. DETAILS... * MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. * WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. * THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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