Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290721 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 321 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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THROUGH 8 AM... BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM. TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600 MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS. WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS * MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK * ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY * INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER WEEKEND OVERVIEW... AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW. SINCE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE DIFFERENCES. DETAILS... * TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. * THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET. MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE. COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT TIME. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX. THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...WTB/BELK MARINE...WTB/BELK

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