Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 191810 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will increase by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure is in general control of our weather, bringing dry weather tonight. With light pressure gradient and sunset, expect the southwest winds to diminish early tonight. A shortwave will race across the Northeast tonight and pull a weak cold front through Southern New England middle to late night. As noted, not much moisture about and thus not expecting much in the way of clouds. What may be noticed is a wind direction shift where there are winds, with northwest winds toward morning. Many protected spots that will have light wind. The resulting raditional cooling will again allow patches of fog to form. Dew points will lower a few more degrees, general range upper 30s and 40s...which is about normal. Expect min temps in the 40s and low 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains in control with dry weather and mainly clear skies. Main difference from today will be that winds will be from the northwest and bringing slightly lower dew points. Mixing during the day will reach 925 mb or a little higher, similar to today, with temps at that level supporting max sfc temps of roughly 65-70F. At night, light wind with dew points 35-45 will allow radiational cooling to bring min sfc temps in the upper 30s and 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * Above average temperatures with dry conditions lasting into Monday * Precipitation chances are increasing for the middle of next week. 19/00Z guidance remains in excellent agreement through this weekend. High pressure in control with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Some detail difference begin to arise with the handling of a closed mid level low across the southern tier of the USA early next week. These detail differences are almost entirely the result of timing differences in breaking down the strong mid level ridge along the Eastern Seaboard. The primary impact of this closed low will be to provide energy ahead of a cold front toward the middle of next week. Given the strength of the downstream ridge, will favor the less progressive guidance, which would be closer to the 00Z ECMWF. That said, it is becoming increasingly likely our region will see some light precipitation sometime late Monday night into Wednesday, with the most likely timeframe currently being around Tuesday. This could change over the next several days as the timing of a slow- moving front becomes clearer. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/...Generally high confidence. Tonight... A weak cold front crosses the region tonight, but with very limited moisture, so few clouds if any. The main effect will be a shift of diminishing winds with winds coming from the northwest overnight. Radiational cooling will allow patches of fog to develop later tonight, especially in parts of the CT River Valley and in the usual fog magnets. Vsbys could drop to 1/2 mile in spots after midnight. Friday and Friday night... VFR conditions continue. Areas of fog will dissipate first thing Friday. Northwest winds will pick up a little, with late morning and afternoon gusts near 20 knots. Winds then diminish with sunset. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... High Confidence. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...Southwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots late afternoon but diminish this evening. Seas on the outer waters will hover around 5 feet, and while the flow is from the southwest these 5 foot seas may work into RI Sound as well. Winds will shift from the northwest later tonight, at which point the seas will diminish. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the most of the waters through this evening, and on the outer waters overnight. Friday...Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots during the day. Seas will remain 4 feet or less through the day. Friday night...Winds remain 15 knots or less, and seas remain at 3 feet or less. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence. Great boating weather as high pressure prevails through this upcoming weekend with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Ahead of a very weak cold front, southwest winds will gust 20-25 mph across much of the region through this evening and then diminish. With an overall recent lack of precipitation, there could be an elevated fire weather potential through the evening. A Special Weather Statement continues to highlight this risk. Winds shift from the northwest overnight. On Friday these northwest winds will gust around 20 mph, with minimum RH values reaching 30-35 percent across much of the region. Thus there could again be some risk of elevated fire weather potential. A new Special Weather Statement will highlight this potential.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-250- 251-254. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...WTB/Belk MARINE...WTB/Belk FIRE WEATHER...

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