Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 311050 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY... THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY * A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL * MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU OVERVIEW... 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN. DAILIES... WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S! THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY TUESDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

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