Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 030541 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND THEN STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WITH DRY AND WARMING WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHT TICK UP IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS SCT AROUND SUGGEST MINS WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. STILL SUSPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH A DRY AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT AS SEA BREEZES ADVECTING DEW PTS IN THE L40S INLAND. IN ADDITION SSW SURFACE WINDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING HERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY... ANY MORNING FOG WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. THUS ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED. STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE U60S AND L70S BY AFTERNOON...MID 70S CT RVR VLY. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO RI AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST CT. CULPRIT IS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6.5CM/KM. DEW PTS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS NEAR 50...WHICH LIMITS SB CAPES TO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES. NEVERTHELESS WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREA. SHEAR IS LIMITED AT 15-25 KT SO WITH WEAK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH PERHAPS PEA SIZE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND MAYBE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH INVERTED / SOUNDING AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 70 AND DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 40S. MODELS SEEM TO BE TARGETING NORTHEAST MA WITH PERHAPS SEABREEZE INTERACTION ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER DEW PTS/INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE NICE WEATHER MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM 3 PM TO 7 PM. PGRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEABREEZES THUS COOLER AT THE SHORE. SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LEFTOVER ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM WHICH GIVES WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING/NIGHT AND NOT AS COOL WITH MINS ONLY 45 TO 50! SSW WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK * COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE * POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TWO POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM SHORE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOW 80S ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY IS CONFINED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH NO SIGN OF IT IN THE GFS. SO SATURDAY IS A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ONLY CAVEAT ARE MVY/HYA THIS MORNING WHERE A VERY NARROW STRATUS DECK HAS FORMED. THESE WILL STAY IFR THROUGH ABOUT 10-12Z. EXPECT SEA BREEZES AT BOTH COASTS BEGINNING MID MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY S-SE FLOW. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL CT/CENTRAL MA/ AND NRN RI. AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AS WELL. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS BECOME MORE SW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MON...WHEN GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS 19Z-23Z. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...STARTING AROUND 14Z. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... STRATUS/FOG OVER EASTERN MA WATERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE FURTHER SEAWARD AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SUNDAY... SSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CAPE COD WATERS. OTHERWISE ANY MORNING FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF YIELDING GOOD VSBY. DRY WEATHER GIVES WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH SHORE MASSACHUSETTS. SUN NIGHT... LIGHT SSW WINDS. GOOD VSBY WITH ANY EVENING SHOWERS ENDING RAPIDLY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS FOR MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 25-30 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH. APPEARS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE ITS BEEN SO DRY AS OF LATE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DOODY/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/RLG FIRE WEATHER...

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