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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 192332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
730 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO BRING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BETTER IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.  GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER.  WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.  SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF