Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 051737 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 137 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MILD TO WARM AFTERNOON/S AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSIST. A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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137 PM UPDATE... WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO EXPECTING LIGHT SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS DONE. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER...BUT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING QUIET WEATHER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SO ONCE THE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SPRING TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK * HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND * A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN INTO MON OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z GEFS/12Z ECENS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW IN KEEPING AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGHING WITH A FEW CUTOFF SHORT WAVES DIVE S INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS E AS IT NOSES N THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC TO LABRADOR. ALSO NOTING NEARLY STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH SURFACE LOW/POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION...IT COULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO HOLD IN PLACE AND SLOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND... THEN THE GFS LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING FASTER THAN GGEM/ECMWF... MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WHICH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE. WITH OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND FURTHER E ACROSS THE ATLC...FEEL THIS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN SO THINK THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO FOR SUN-MON. HOWEVER...WITH THE WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THIS WEEKEND...THEN BLENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FOR SUN-MON WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DETAILS... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGING BUILDS E ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EARLY THU TO BECOME S-SW. THIS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPS IN PLACE EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE TEMPERED WITH THE GENERAL ONSHORE WIND FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST MAINLY ON FRIDAY. ALSO...DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MILD TEMPS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...MAY SEE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WHILE INCREASING DEWPTS MAY ALSO MEAN BRIEF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE INLAND LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. HIGHS BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE S COAST WILL BE IN THE 70S... POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL SOLUTIONS WIDEN. HAVE MENTIONED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO ONLY LOW CHANCE FOR SUN/MON FOR MOST AREAS...BUT WILL DEPEND UPON TIMING OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT MILD TEMPS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S /EXCEPT COOLER ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST/.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCAL SEABREEZES LATER TODAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MARINE STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THURSDAY...W-SW WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...BELK/EVT MARINE...BELK/EVT FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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