Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161957 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER VALLEY. TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS /MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH- COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S. THURSDAY NIGHT... STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN * FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON * CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR RUNS. DETAILS... FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. WEDNESDAY... DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ANTICIPATED. MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT... THOMPSONVILLE HARTFORD MIDDLE HADDAM MONTAGUE NORTHAMPTON RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...THOMPSON AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON

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