Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 160737 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 337 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NY/PA AND IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS E PUSH THROUGH THE MORNING...SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z TODAY. BUFKIT DATA SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE BETWEEN 1000 HPA AND ABOUT H5...YIELDING PWATS ABOUT 1.0 INCHES AND MODEST LIFT WITHIN THESE SAME LVLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN GRADUALLY DESCENDING CIGS AND EVEN SOME MODERATE WSR-88D ECHOS ACROSS NW MA AND SRN NH...BUT DWPT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10F HAVE LED TO LITTLE EFFECT AT THE SFC UNTIL JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO /ABOUT 07Z/. EVEN THOSE OBS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING LIGHT RAIN...VSBYS ARE 10SM...AND THESE SITES HAVE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 5F OR LESS. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. DO NOTE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN AND MODEST LIFT EXTENDS TO THE COAST AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...FEEL CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED E OF WORCESTER COUNTY...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS TO THE W...WHERE LIFT IS GREATEST AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AT THIS POINT...JUST A DAMPENING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS...WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY SRN RI AND SE MA...MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN AT ALL. OTHERWISE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUDS SCOUR OUT...ALLOWING MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE THE SUNSET THIS EVENING. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEARS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT... GRADUAL CLEARING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE IS EXPECTED AS NOSE OF COOL HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A LOCALIZED COOLER VALLEY IN NW MA OR CHESHIRE COUNTY NH FALLS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD FROST AT THIS TIME MAINLY THAT DWPTS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO FALL WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL MIXING TODAY...BUT SOMETHING THAT THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO GIVE ANOTHER LOOK THROUGH THE DAY. WED... ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SEPTEMBER DAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EVEN AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE N AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS WELL TO THE S. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE COOL START AND H85 TEMPS AVERAGING +7C WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WED...AS LINGERING SWELL FROM EDOUARD INCHES TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY * TEMPERATURES MODERATE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND * A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS...INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY SOME MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE... WILL USE A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. POINTS OF INTEREST INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. FRIDAY...THIS IS THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN THE TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY SO THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE MUCH COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TODAY... PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO W-NW FLOW FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE LATE MORNING- AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND WED... MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF A POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TODAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...ALTHOUGH THE WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE AS SUCH INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GRADUALLY BUILDING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WELL TO THE SE MAY LEAD TO DOMINANT SEAS OF AROUND 5-6FT ESPECIALLY ON THE S AND SE WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE INITIALIZING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD /KEEPS WELL OUT TO SEA/ KEEPS SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...DOODY/GAF MARINE...DOODY/GAF

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