Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 200000 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 700 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will be followed by a brief cool down tonight into Tuesday. Milder weather returns the middle of next week. However, another front may be accompanied by some precipitation sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point, Thursday has potential to be the warmest day of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 7PM update... No major changes with this update. Temps/dwpts were off as guidance continues to struggle with the warmth today, so timing/overnight lows will require some adjustment. Otherwise, we are on track. Previous discussion... Unseasonably mild day across SNE with temps ranging through the 50s and near 60 across portions of CT/RI and SE MA. Mid level shortwave dropping south across New Eng will drive a cold front through SNE late afternoon and evening followed by a wind shift to NW and colder temperatures overnight. Lows will settle back to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds will become gusty across the Cape and islands with occasional gusts to 25-30 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday... Mid level trof amplifies to the east of New England as additional shortwave energy rotates through. This will result in a dry but brisk NW flow. The column is dry which will lead to mostly sunny skies, but some ocean effect clouds will be moving across the outer Cape. Temps will be near seasonable normals, generally upper 30s higher terrain to lower 40s elsewhere. NW winds will gust to 20-25 mph at times. Monday night... Strong high pres builds into New Eng with clear skies and diminishing wind. Good radiational cooling will result in a cold night with lows dropping into the teens in the colder outlying areas and 20s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights... * Seasonably cool Tuesday * Light rain/pockets of freezing rain Tue night into Wed * Thursday looks to be our warmest day * More likely of widespread rain Friday night into Saturday Overview and model preferences... The initially amplified and complex synoptic pattern across the E half of NOAM will gradually trend toward a more zonal (although with SW-NE orientation) toward the end of the week. This is mainly a response to an arctic influenced wave which should remain to our N as it meets the building heights within ridging across the northeast and Maritimes. Still noting good agreement amongst both ensemble and deterministic guidance that positive 500hPa height anomalies remain through the long term, suggesting the influence of warmer air and a quieter pattern overall. This is indeed the case amongst guidance save for a stronger wave arriving by late Fri-Sat. Given there is fair agreement across the board, will continue with the consensus blend used over the last few updates until some of the subtle, mesoscale features are better resolved. Details... Tue... Quiet wx remains thanks to high pres which will crest early Tue morning. Nearly isothermal profile with both H92 and H85 temps between 0C and +3C suggests warmer temps, in the mid 40s for the most part. Southerly flow with increasing moisture will yield more clouds through the latter portions of the day. Tue night into Wed... The differences in timing of a weak warm frontal passage and its attendant overrunning continue with the 19.12Z guidance update. GFS continues to be the faster model, but also the weakest and driest while, out of the operational runs, ECMWF/CMC are slower and slightly more robust. Noted a modest trend toward the latter solution in both GEFS/ECENS members, so timing/impacts will be more reflective of the ECMWF/CMC. Modest overrunning begins overnight and continues through the first few hours of daylight Wed. Isothermal profiles remain, with low lvl temps mainly near 0C to +3C. Bulk of the moisture (PWATs only around 0.7 inches) relegated to the lowest 200hPa. Initial wet-bulb processes could yield a mix of sleet/wet snow, but this will shift to mainly rain. Pockets of freezing rain possible, especially N Central and W MA, as temps may drop near or below freezing before precip onset, and wetbulbs will only be lower. Not expecting much in the way of ice, but enough that overnight, early AM commutes could be slippery on untreated roadways. Otherwise, improvement on Wed outside of some lingering clouds. Warming of H92 temps to nearly +6C to +8C by 00Z Thu suggests temps will rapidly rebound and may even approach the low 50s in spots especially if enough afternoon sunshine is observed. Thu and Fri... Modest clipper will move through N New England Thu. Although little to no impact expected (outside of some clouds), the brief increase in low-lvl temps in response, combined with a W component to the mean flow, may yield the warmest day of the week. H92 temps average +10C to +12C (as a comparison, today`s H92 temperatures are closer to +6C to +8C. Remaining snowpack, additional clouds may limit mixing somewhat, but all conditions point toward a day with widespread 60s possible. Ensemble probabilities are supportive of this thinking. Some slight cooling on Fri, especially with increasing clouds ahead of a warm front suggests highs mostly in the 50s at best. Timing of overrunning precip looks to hold until Fri night thanks to initial mesoscale ridging possible. Next weekend... Sharper wave currently wrapped up in the Aleutian vortex will be forced E and may start taking on a neutral or even negative tilt as it arrives in the OH Valley. Good agreement that parent low pres remains an inside runner, but it will have some connection to Gulf of Mexico moisture with PWATS approaching 1.3+ inches (3+ standard deviations above normal). Within the warm sector (Saturday) LLJ 40-05 kt, TT values near 50 and mid lvl lapse rates steeper than moist-adiabatic, therefore, will need to watch for pockets of heavy rainfall at times along with this feature passage. Can`t even rule out a rumble of thunder or two if conditions line up. Conditions improve Sun, with a return to much more seasonable cool temps following in the wake of this stronger system. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. No significant changes with 00Z TAF update. Mainly VFR. Some MVFR cigs may develop across the interior tonight into Monday morning. Also some ocean effect MVFR cigs possible across the outer Cape and ACK mainly tomorrow. NW gusts to 25 kt developing over the outer Cape/Islands later tonight into Monday. Elsewhere, NW gusts to 20 kt expected Monday. Diminishing wind becoming light Mon night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tue...High confidence. VFR. Winds mainly S. Tue night into Wed...Moderate confidence. Overnight low-moderate risk for some MVFR/IFR CIGS along with occasional MVFR vsbys in light rainfall. Low risk for some light icing with light freezing rain, mainly Worcester Hills and Western MA. Improvement to VFR gradually after sunrise on Wed. Winds shift to the W-SW. Thu and Fri...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low risk for some mixed MVFR CIGS by late day Fri, but these may hold off until Fri night. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...A surge of gusty NW winds will develop behind a cold front this evening with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest across eastern waters. Monday...Winds gradually diminish below SCA by afternoon, except across eastern waters where northerly gusts to 25 kt will persist most of the day, Monday night...Some leftover northerly gusts to 25 kt eastern waters in the evening, otherwise diminishing wind as high pres builds into the waters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tue into Wed...Moderate confidence. Quiet boating wx remains in place on Tue. Accompanied by some light rain early Wed morning, W-SW wind gusts may reach near the 25 kt threshold for small craft advisories, but then diminish by about mid day on Wed. Seas remain generally 5 ft or less, so there is a low risk that a brief period of small craft advisories may be needed Tue night into Wed morning. Thu and Fri...High confidence. Generally quiet boating weather even as winds shift from mainly W-SW to E by Fri. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ255. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Doody NEAR TERM...KJC/Doody SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Doody AVIATION...KJC/Doody MARINE...KJC/Doody is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.