Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 222334 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 734 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Jose will continue to weaken tonight as it very slowly drifts south, but still bring periods of showers to eastern MA and RI. Low clouds will gradually scour out from west to east during the day Saturday and it will turn warm across interior southern New England. Unseasonably warm weather is on tap Sunday into the middle of next week, especially away from the coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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No major changes to the forecast this evening. Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends. Previous Discussion... Jose will continue to weaken tonight and gradually meander further south gradually losing its grip on southern New England. Cyclonic flow around the system will still be enough for bands of showers tonight across eastern MA and RI, but they will begin to focus mainly across southeast MA overnight as deeper moisture pushes south. As for temperatures, there was a large range in current readings late this afternoon from readings well into the 70s in western MA/CT, to the upper 50s and lower 60s in eastern MA and RI. However, by daybreak readings should balance out as there will not be much change in temps along the coastal plain tonight. Lows by daybreak should generally be in the 55 to 60 degree range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Saturday... We can not rule out a few left over spot showers or perhaps a bit of drizzle across the far southeast New England coast Saturday morning, but regardless there will be an abundance of low clouds. Model cross sections indicate drier low level air should allow for plenty of sunshine across western MA/western CT by mid afternoon. Given 850T around +16C lower elevations in these areas should see afternoon highs soar into the middle 80s. Meanwhile along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor, low clouds will linger into mid afternoon but most areas should see improvement by late afternoon/early evening except for the Cape and Islands. Given the late recovery will go for late day highs in the middle to upper 70s in the Boston to Providence corridor, but keep them around 70 for the Cape and Islands. Surf: Lingering high seas from left over swell, opted to issue a high surf advisory through Saturday on all ocean exposed south and east facing beaches. High surf and dangerous rip currents will be a concern, particularly now that many beaches do not have lifeguards given that the official summer beach season has ended. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights... * Return to summer warmth Sunday and Monday * Showers possible by mid week * Watching Maria, but latest NHC track keeps it offshore Jose continues its slow dissipation through early next week, keeping high surf and an elevated risk of rip currents on south coastal beaches. Concern is for an increase in beachgoers this weekend, as building upper ridge brings return to warmer conditions. Keep in mind many area beaches are no longer staffed with lifeguards this late in September! Still expecting an anomalous ridge to develop over the Northeast this weekend and early next week. Besides the return of summer-like heat, including the possibility of a few 90 degree readings in the Merrimack and Connecticut river valleys, we should also see a prolonged period of dry weather. Still expecting a backdoor cold front to move into our region from the east Tuesday into Wednesday. While temperatures will be lower than this weekend, still expecting above near to slightly above normal temperatures. Cannot rule out scattered showers either, which should be focused mainly across the eastern half of southern New England. This mid level ridge is also expected to play a role in delaying the northward progress of Maria along the Eastern Seaboard. If Maria is delayed long enough, there should be enough time for a mid level trough and a surface cold front to push Maria out to sea. The track or Maria should be close enough to bring another round of high surf with a renewed threat of rip currents and beach erosion. It`s still much to early to confidently say that will happen, since we need to assess interaction with approaching Great Lakes trough/surface cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday/... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions will continue tonight across eastern MA and RI in bands of showers, especially across southeast MA. NE wind gusts around 35 kt along the southeast New England coast will gradually diminish some through the night. Meanwhile, broken VFR to marginal MVFR cigs will continue across western MA and CT are expected through tonight. Saturday...High confidence in trends but low confidence in timing. Marginal MVFR cigs across the interior should improve to VFR to the northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor by mid afternoon. MVFR-IFR Cigs in low clouds and fog patches southeast of the Boston to Providence line will be slower to improve, but should scour out towards 00z except for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions in periods of showers and drizzle persist tonight. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Scattered to broken ceilings will mainly be VFR but some periods of MVFR are possible overnight. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night...Moderate confidence. VFR west. IFR east. Sunday and Monday...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Light winds with seabreezes possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in scattered showers, especially eastern MA. Otherwise, VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Jose will continue weaken but still bring gale force wind gusts to many of our waters into this evening. These winds should gradually diminish through the night as the system slowly weakens. 10 to 15 foot seas across our outer-waters will only gradually diminish. Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Perhaps some left over marginal gale force wind gusts across our southwest outer-waters into mid morning. Otherwise, wind gusts should continue to gradually diminish from north to south but small craft gusts will continue through the afternoon across our southern waters. Seas will also remain above small craft levels across the open waters from left over swell. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence. Light winds expected Sunday with local seabreezes as high pressure remains over waters. A backdoor cold front is expected to move south across waters Monday into Tuesday with light E/NE winds and scattered showers. Seas will gradually subside Sunday, and should finally drop below 5 ft on all waters except for the southern outer coastal waters. Lingering swells from Jose, combined with increasing swells from Maria, will likely lead to seas building over 5 ft again on waters south and east of Nantucket by Monday or Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Diminishing seas and surge should preclude any additional pockets of minor coastal flooding tonight, other than perhaps some very minor splash over. However, additional beach erosion will still be a concern into Saturday given high seas just offshore. Swells from Maria may increase the surf and associated rip current risk across our ocean-exposed south coast sometime during the first half of next week, even though Maria may eventually recurve out to sea before getting too close to New England. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ007-019-020- 022>024. RI...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234-250- 254. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ251. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Frank MARINE...Belk/Frank TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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