Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 060722 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 322 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH SOME THIN...HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ONCE MORE...LEADING TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ONCE MORE. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER STARTING POINT. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A FAVORABLE AREA FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL MEAN THICKER CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY...DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM FRONT LIFTS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO THINKING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL. ONCE WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 700-1200 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW. HOWEVER...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PROJECTED STORM MOTIONS COULD BE QUITE SLOW. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS/STORMS WED * HIGH UNCERTAINTY LATER IN WEEK BUT MAINLY DRY DETAILS... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEEK DUE TO TRANSITION IN LARGER SCALE PATTERN. INITIALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN STATES GIVES WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND WE FEEL MORE OF EFFECTS OF CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA. HOW QUICKLY RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR S AND HOW MUCH WE BECOME INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT MAKES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK OR MORE IN WAY OF COOLER/SHOWERY CONDITIONS. FORECAST IS LARGELY WEIGHTED ON BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES TO HELP IRON OUT UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 3. WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WED AS COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT AS IS TYPICALLY CASE THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS. SB CAPES SHOULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG BUT 0-6KM SHEAR 20-25KT AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARGUE AGAINST A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. ONE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS ACTUALLY ACROSS E MA LATER IN DAY WHICH SHOULD BE ON EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR LOCATED OFFSHORE. THU THROUGH SUN...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON HOW LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLVES...TO EITHER MORE OF ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF CANADIAN CLOSED LOW...WE COULD END UP WITH STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID JULY. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR TERMINAL. VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR ACROSS PARTS OF CT RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS OF MA/RI EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS 15-17Z TODAY. WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF KBOS-KPVD-KWST. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 15Z TODAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PATCHY FOG 08-11Z. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT. THU AND FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER. SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCAL SEABREEZES TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS WATERS...BUT COULD SEE 4-5 FT SEAS ON SOUTHERN WATERS S OF ISLANDS BY WED OR THU DUE TO BUILDING SWELL. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AND WED...AS WELL AS PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...BELK/JWD MARINE...BELK/JWD

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