Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281835 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... *** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON *** 1135 AM UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING TO 850 MB /10-11C/. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI * POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS. THIS WEEKEND... NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT 18Z-22Z. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z- 22Z. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE. S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ON S COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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