Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 021851 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 251 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES...BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WITH DRY AND WARMING WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 2 PM UPDATE... SPECTACULAR WEATHER IN PROGRESS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AT 2 PM WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S IN RESPONSE TO STRONG MAY SUNSHINE. AT THE COAST CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH SEABREEZES KEEPING TEMPS IN THE M40S TO LOW 50S. STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS ARE CONFINED NOW JUST TO THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM ESE TO SSW LOW CLOUDS WILL CLIP CAPE ANN AREA. DIURNAL CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT. LOW RISK OF A BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES TO VERIFY NICELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS CLOUDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE MOST PART. SUN... ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY START. THIS SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW MIXING TO REACH HIGHER THAN H85 WHERE TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AN AVERAGE AROUND +9C. FLOW MAINLY S-SW. WITH THIS SLIGHT W COMPONENT INLAND...CT VALLEY CLOUD APPROACH 80F...OR AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S. WARMER ELSEWHERE TOO...EXCEPT COASTLINES WHERE THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATER DAY SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN. CONTINUE TO NOTE MODEST TROUGH IN MASS FIELDS MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND SEA BREEZE FRONTS COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA ESPECIALLY E AND NE MA...BUT AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN CT/RI. SOME SFC BASE CAPE AROUND 200-500 J/KG ALSO AVAILABLE THANKS TO 6.5-7.0C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES. H5 TEMPS NEAR -20C AS WELL. THEREFORE...COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. VERY LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE WHOLE COLUMN...SO SHEAR FAR FROM AN ISSUE AND ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE ON ITSELF AS IT FORMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK * COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE * POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TWO POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM SHORE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOW 80S ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY IS CONFINED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH NO SIGN OF IT IN THE GFS. SO SATURDAY IS A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... THRU 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE SEABREEZES. LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL LURK JUST OFFSHORE BUT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SSW. DIURNAL CLOUDS AT BKN060-080 OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD A BRIEF SHOWER TIL SUNSET. AFTER 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT SSW WIND. LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR IN FOG 06Z-12Z. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY IN MVFR/VFR 19Z- 23Z WITH GREATEST RISK CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO RI. WINDS...LIGHT SSW. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. LIGHT SSW WINDS PREVAIL. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE MAKES IT TURN TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. LOW RISK OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS 19Z-23Z SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE WATER THIS WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE S LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS FOR MONDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 25-30 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH. APPEARS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE ITS BEEN SO DRY AS OF LATE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG MARINE...DOODY/RLG FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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