Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 280900 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A GENERAL W-NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH THIN CLOUDS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS SE NY THAT MAY BRING A QUICK SPRINKLE TO N CT THROUGH SUNRISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WERE MAINLY CALM AT 08Z WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS E INTERIOR MA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHICH HAVE CAPPED TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS E INTERIOR MA WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...AS WELL AS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA INTO SW NH. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE PUSH E OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER TEMPS AND SUNSHINE TO RETURN AS CLOUDS PUSH NE AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH. H925 TEMPS WILL ALSO RISE QUICKLY...UP TO +10C TO +18C THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY INTO N RI/SE MA POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT... EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 30-35 KT AT H925 AND UP TO 45 KT AT H85...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF SCT SHOWERS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CT VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL...MAY DROP TO THE 50S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS HOLDING AT AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING LINE OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL NH AND NE MA BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF E MA/E RI DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOTING LIFTED INDICES ZERO TO -1 AND K INDICES AROUND 30 AND...WITH GOOD MIXING CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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* HIGHLIGHTS... - COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY - SIGNIFICANT STORM APPEARING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND - APPEARING UNSEASONABLY COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK * OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS... VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NOT SO MUCH THIS WEEKEND. 28/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REST OF THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE INVOLVES A LINGERING CLOSED SURFACE LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONGER...NEGATIVELY-TILTED...MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...FAVORED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO MITIGATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION ERRORS. WE THINK IT WISE TO NOT DISMISS THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES CAN BE WORKED OUT. STAY TUNED. * DETAILS... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...CONDITIONS. AS TO FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...NO ONE PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SHOWING A CLASSIC ENERGY TRANSFER FROM AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE PROBLEM IS THE DETAILS ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT...AND WILL BE CRUCIAL. OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SO FAR OUT TO SEA...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINDS UP IN THE DRIER AIR...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS. PATCHY FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS /AROUND 6KFT/ PUSH ACROSS N MA/S NH THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CIGS INCREASE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN LOCAL FOG THROUGH 13Z-14Z THEN IMPROVING. TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS PUSH INTO CT VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CT VALLEY IN ISOLD HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. S-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS. S-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW PROB WIND GUST TO 30 KT. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH INTO E RI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR TO LOW END IFR CIGS/ MVFR VSBYS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT -SHRA. IMPROVING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE POSTED. WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS AND SEAS AOA SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO W ON THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING AROUND 5-7 FEET...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS A STORM BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INTENSIFY...WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING AS WELL.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/EVT MARINE...BELK/EVT

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