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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PUSH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A TREND TOWARD WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
730 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IF NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SHOW UP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT LIKELY SCT OR LESS COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AT 23Z BUT EXPECT THOSE TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET AND REDUCED MIXING.

330 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS THAT ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS
ARE GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT THAT THEY MAY GUST AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES PULLING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WITH DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SOME COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER FRIDAY...THEY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...A LITTLE HIGHER
CLOSER TO THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
 * WARMER/HUMID MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MARITIMES DOMINATES
THROUGH WEEKEND WHICH MAINTAINS E/SE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER GULF OF MAINE. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT CLOSED
LOW HEADS OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEK AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER
EASTERN STATES...RESULTING IN WARMING TREND. EVENTUALLY TROUGH
SETS UP OVER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHICH RESULTS IN BROAD SW
FLOW OVER REGION.

12Z GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH WE SEE USUAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES.

OVER WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS FORM DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER N WITH PRECIP SHIELD EARLY SUN AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS N FROM MID ATLANTIC. 12Z NAM LOOKS MUCH TO WET
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO WE
FAVORED DRIER 12Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH HOLDS OFF ANY SHOWERS UNTIL MON.
FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS IN AREA MON-TUE BEFORE LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED-THU. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF WEEK...ESPECIALLY BEFORE FRONT LIFTS N.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01Z.
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N/NW OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. N/NW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

VFR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS NEARSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS.  WINDS ARE
ACTUALLY LIGHTER FARTHER OFFSHORE.  HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP
FOR ALL THE WATERS...FOR WINDS CLOSER IN AND FOR SEAS FARTHER
OFFSHORE.  EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS NEAR SHORE AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEEKEND WITH
PREVAILING E/SE FLOW AND WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA. SE WINDS INCREASE
LATER SUN INTO MON WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS...WHICH SHOULD REACH
5 OR 6 FT ON OPEN WATERS S OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE /E TO SE/ AT 10 MPH OR
LESS...WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NO LOWER THAN 30
TO 40 PERCENT. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG/JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...RLG