Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290747 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY*** SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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TONIGHT... A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA! SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS. THIS WEEKEND... NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA

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