Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290707 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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TONIGHT... WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SUNDAY... WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY * ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK * LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED OR THU OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING. ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION. OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. DETAILS... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO. GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH... CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT

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